Overview of VTO Analysis Program · 3 VTO Analysis Program Budget (all numbers in millions of...
Transcript of Overview of VTO Analysis Program · 3 VTO Analysis Program Budget (all numbers in millions of...
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VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE
Jacob Ward (Presenter)Dave GohlkeRachael Nealer
Analysis Program Overview
June 8, 2016
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VTO Analysis Program Goals, Objectives, and Strategy
goal
objective
Plan, execute, and communicate technology, societal, economic, and interdisciplinary analyses for VTO, EERE, DOE, and external stakeholders
Robust transportation energy analysis that speaks for itself
strategy Support a strong foundation of data,build relevant analytical models, and execute insightful integrated analyses
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VTO Analysis Program Budget (all numbers in millions of dollars)
- FY16 budget restructure results in $10.8M Analysis budget; FY17 request aligned with historical levels at $4.5M
- Analysis core Program comprises data, modeling, and original analysis
- Analysis also includes Vehicle Systems (VS) co-funding and SMART Mobility foundational Analysis in FY16
- National Laboratory support from ANL, ORNL, LBNL, NREL, and Sandia
($ m
illio
ns)
VTO Analysis Program budget
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VTO Analysis (VAN) Core Program at a Glance
Application/Accounting
Market Penetration
Emissions and Environmental Modeling
Vehicle Modeling and SimulationAutonomie, HTEB
GREET
ADOPT, LVCFlex, MA3T, ParaChoice, LAVE-Trans
VISION, NEAT
Technology and Market DataTEDB, Market Report,xEV data, TREND
IntegratedAnalysisModels and Tools:
And, FY16 “bonus”: SMART Mobility and Vehicle Systems (VS) Co-Funding
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Technology and Market Data
DATA
FY15-16 highlights
future work
• Published…- Transportation Energy Data Book, edition 34- 2015 Market Report
• Tracked…- P/H/EV sales (U.S., international, and global)- Economic considerations, including public and/or private incentives and
other potential correlations• and Reported…
- Historical data on consumer knowledge and perceptions- Extended or new time-series consumer preference data
- Continue updating, disseminating, and expanding (where appropriate) data sources regularly
- Expand P/H/EV market knowledge with third-party data- Extend relevant consumer preference time-series data, and conduct priority deep-dives
supporting analysis efforts
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Vehicle Modeling and Simulation (VTO/VS Co-Fund)
FY15-16 highlights
future work
• Updated Framework and Technology Outlook(s)…- Underlying Autonomie software revised for VTO-specific needs (i.e.
subcomponent models vetted against real-world vehicle and segment data)- VTO technology outlooks updated and formatted for Autonomie input
• Modeled/Simulated Vehicle Meta-data…- Virtual vehicle-level performance and cost(s) estimated for future
technology ranges• and Quality-Assured (enormous improvement in FY15-16).
- Results diagnostics tools used for cross-walks to other models- Significant process and results examination, discussion, revision, and system
redesign for future robustness
- Continue modeling and simulation applied framework process improvement and quality control diagnostics and tools
- Leverage variation on this DOE process for U.S. DRIVE target-setting in FY16- Update DOE meta-data in FY17 (and continue bi-annual process thereafter)
VEHICLE
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Methodology and results (for third-party use)
VEHICLE
2010
Vehicles: Applied Modeling and Simulation Report
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Emissions and Environmental Modeling
ECO
FY15-16 highlights
future work
• Improve GREET…- Collect, analyze water consumption data to develop consumption
factors (including system boundary and regional considerations)- Analyze advanced material vehicle manufacturing data for vehicle
lightweighting lifecycle considerations- Further develop GREET.net user-friendly visual interface platform
• …and Apply GREET:- Study emissions implications of technology improvement(s) and
underlying model adjustments- High visibility model application for i.e. U.S. DRIVE strategic
discussion(s)
- Continue model improvement consistent with expert community state-of-the-art- Continue to apply GREET for strategic and/or topical GHG and particulate emissions
analyses, as needed
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Market Penetration and Consumer Behavior
MARKET
FY15-16 highlights
future work
• Engage Expert Community…- FY15 kickoff with Complex Choice Behaviors and Transportation Energy
Policy (NSF) and International Transportation Energy Modeling (UC-Davis) workshops
- Identify gap analysis and near-/long-term research priorities• Refine and Validate…
- Continue each model’s strategic development (market segmentation, parametric sensitivity analysis, nameplate-based market evolution, etc.)
- Discuss, develop, design and execute model-specific validation(s)• Apply and Analyze…
- Model and compare VTO-standard scenarios- Analyze comparison model, market, and model-market insights
- Continue to evolve and validate models appropriately (according to each model’s bases)- Expand external expert engagement, comparing and refining models accordingly- Incorporate additional model functionality, and examine novel market responses as
modeled (for new insights on models and markets)
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National Transportation Energy Accounting
APP/ACC
FY15-16 highlights
future work
• Maintain and Update…- Standard scenarios, models, and tools to match historical and AEO-
projected future data (which is updated ~annually)- Program-specific scenarios aligned with “VTO Program Success”
• Improve and Expand…- Models and tool sets according to new and evolving Program priorities (e.g.,
off-highway)- Crosswalks between/among models (given integrated analysis approach)
• Integrate…- Analysis models and tools in coherent vehicle-level-to-national analysis
scenarios, examining and estimating VTO technology R&D benefits
- Document and make publically available benefit metrics and methodology- Repeat iterative analytical updates consistent with VTO goals, targets, and milestone
updates and/or needs
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Consumer/Markets: VTO Motivation/Context
Three important contextual caveats:1. DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the only part of DOE responsible
for future energy projections (through the Annual Energy Outlook, AEO)2. Neither VTO nor EERE is in the business of market projection3. VTO-supported market/consumer choice analysis models are tools for
understanding how VTO R&D investment and complementary Federal policies canfurther VTO goals (reducing petroleum consumption, abating GHG emissions, andbolstering energy security)
Primary use: VTO R&D portfolio benefits analysis• VTO R&D lowers
technology cost andimproves performance
• Translating technologyprogress to nationalbenefits requires marketunderstanding
Secondary use: Federal policy analysis• Federal policies
(subsidies, infrastructureinvestment) complementtechnology progress
• Interactions requiremarket understanding
Ad hoc use: scenario analysis• Full transportation
transition scenariosrequire some investment(in technology andpolicy)
• Market understandingprovides insight into suchtransitions
MARKET
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BaSce/GPRA Quantifies VTO Benefits
Source: Stephens et al (2016). http://www.anl.gov/energy-systems/publication/vehicle-technologies-and-fuel-cell-technologies-program-prospective
Applied analysis aggregates subprograms (advanced combustion, electric-drive, energy storage, fuels, and materials programs) to estimate VTO program benefits.
For example, Program benefits in 2050 include:• Petroleum reduction: 2.9–3.7 mbpd (~26–31 billion barrels cumulatively)• GHG emissions abatement: ~600–750M tons CO2eq/year (~14–15 billion tons
cumulatively)
APP/ACC
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Focus Area Lead Future New Technologies/Models/KnowledgeMobility
Decision Science LBNL • New knowledge and applications of decision science to collect andanalyze real-world data on transportation decision making
Connectivity & Automation ANL • An increased understanding of the potential impact of connected
and automated vehicles (and relationship to vehicle technologies)
Multi-Modal ORNL • Dynamic passenger/freight modal energy-intensity modelingconsidering market preferences and energy implications
Urban Science NREL • Integrated city-scale models that explicitly consider energy impactsby collecting real-world data with local collaboration
Vehicles and Infrastructure INL • Integrated vehicle-fuel models to explore consumer and provider
value propositions
SMART Mobility Foundational Analysis
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SMART Mobility: Early Accomplishments
2050 BaselineEnergy Consumption
Potential Increase in Energy Consumption
Potential Decrease in Energy Consumption
+200%
-90%
Future Mobility will have a HUGE energy impact…
Early applied analysis and modeling/simulation research connects possible energy outcomes with potential VMT,
connectivity/automation, shared mobility, travel behavior, and vehicle technology effects.
…how do westart to make sense of it?
Possible connected and automated vehicle energy effects:
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VTO Analysis Program and Integration, in Summary
DATA
VEHI
CLE
ECO
MAR
KET
APP/
ACCT
TEDB
xEV sales
TREND database
Autonomie
HTEB
GREET
MA3T
ADOPT
LVC Flex
LAVE-Trans
ParaChoice
TRUCK
VISION
NEAT
DATA
VEHI
CLE
ECO
MAR
KET
APP/
ACCT
expert input
Autonomie
HTEB
GREET
MA3T (et al)
TRUCK
VISION
- The VTO analysis portfolio (left) satisfies VTO’s priority analysis needs and includes some redundancies, where logical
- Some projects (e.g., BaSce/GPRA, below) span all categories for a truly integrated analysis
Analysis Type:
Models:
BaSce/GPRAintegrated analysis
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ANLData, Modeling, Applied
Analysis, SMART
ORNLData, Modeling,
SMART
NRELData, Modeling,
SMART
Sandia Modeling
U.S. DOE ProjectsCo-Funders
U.S. EPA
U.S. DOT
CA State Agencies
LBNLModeling, SMART
Ford, Toyota, AGA, DOT, ANL, ORNL, NREL, Energetics ORNL, ANL, SNL, UC-Davis,
Navigant, Opinion Research Corporation (ORC), GM, Ford, Fiat-Chrysler, EIA,
ORNL, ANL, SNL, SRA International, TA
Engineering
Energetics, SRA, Ford, U-Tennessee, UC-Davis, Iowa
State, Lamar, U-Florida, DOE, ANL, NREL, EIA,
Tsinghua University, IIASA
ORNL, NREL, SNL, TA Engineering, Energetics, Navigant, DLR, Fraunhofer, U-Wisconsin-Madison, Sasol Synfuels, Jacobs, EPA, CARB,
FRA, FAA, DOD-DLA-Energy, Kelley Blue Book, NADA, Tsinghua University, Hybridcars.com, European Automotive Industry Newsletter
INLSMART
Other Partnerships
U.S. DRIVE
BP, Chevron, DTE, EPRI, ExxonMobil, Phillips66, SCE,
Shell, Tesla, USCAR (FCA, Ford, GM)
Collaboration
UC-Berkeley, EPA, Stanford, Center for Sustainable
Energy, ETH Zurich
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VTO Analysis (VAN) Presentations
Time Project ID VANCategory
PrincipalInvestigator Project Title
2:15 VAN000/VAN999 (Overview) Jacob Ward, DOE VTO Analysis Portfolio Overview
2:45 VAN016 DATA Stacy Davis, ORNL Transportation Data Program
3:15 VAN017 MODELING Michael Wang, ANL Vehicle Technologies Analysis Modeling Program
3:45 Break
4:15 VAN018 APP/ACT Tom Stephens, ANL VTO Baseline and Scenario (BaSce) Activities
4:45 VAN023 VEHICLE Aymeric Rousseau, ANL
Assessing Energy and Cost Impact of Advanced Technologies through Model-Based Design
Wednesday, June 8, Roosevelt 3
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VTO Analysis (VAN) Posters
Project ID
VAN Category
PrincipalInvestigator Project Title
VAN019 MARKET Rebecca Levinson, SNL ParaChoice Model
VAN020 APP/ACCT Tom Stephens, ANL Applied Analysis of Connected and Automated Vehicles
VAN021 MARKET Zhenhong Lin, ORNL Transportation Energy Evolution Modeling (TEEM) Program
VAN022 APP/ACCT Aymeric Rousseau, ANL Applied Modeling and Simulation of Connected and Automated Vehicles
Wednesday, June 8, 12:30p–1:45p
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Jacob WardVehicle Technologies Officevehicles.energy.gov
Annual Merit ReviewJune 6-10, 2016