Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East...
-
Upload
moses-hudson -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
3
Transcript of Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East...
![Page 1: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Overview of theOverview of theUK / European programUK / European program
on I&Aon I&A
Clare GoodessClare GoodessClimatic Research UnitClimatic Research Unit
University of East AngliaUniversity of East Angliahttp://www.cru.uea.ac.ukhttp://www.cru.uea.ac.uk
![Page 2: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
A ‘selective’ view from Norwich
MICE / PRUDENCE / STARDEXENSEMBLES
![Page 3: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
This co-operative cluster of projects brings together European expertise in the fields of climate modelling, regional downscaling, statistics, and impacts analysis to explore future changes in extreme events in response to global warming.•PRUDENCE will provide high-resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for Europe using regional climate models. PRUDENCE project summary•STARDEX will provide improved downscaling methodologies for the construction of scenarios of changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. STARDEX project summary•MICE uses information from climate models to explore future changes in extreme events across Europe in response to global warming. MICE project summary Last modified:16 August 2002 MICE STARDEX PRUDENCEProject Web Sites:
Contact InformationCopyright information: the above photo montage was created in XaraX using copyright pictures from: © Collier County Florida Emergency Management and © Environment Agency.The three projects are supported by the European Commission under the Framework V Thematic Programme ”Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development” (EESD), 2002-2005.
Scroll down for Project Summaries: follow the links above to Project Web Sites.
Hit CounterWeb Site designed and implemented by Tom Holt, © 2002
Comments and suggestions welcome: [email protected]
PRUDENCE
STARDEX
MICE
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/
![Page 4: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Observed changes in extremes
![Page 5: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
1958-2000 trend in frost days1958-2000 trend in frost days
Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
![Page 6: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
1958-2000 trend in frost days1958-2000 trend in frost days
Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing.
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
AthensAthensFebruary 2004February 2004
![Page 7: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days
Scale is days per year. Red is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
![Page 8: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Scale is days per year. Red is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
Western EuropeWestern EuropeAugust 2003August 2003
Property damage: US$ 13 bnProperty damage: US$ 13 bnFatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France)Fatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France)
1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days
![Page 9: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
1958-2000 trend in 1958-2000 trend in heavy summer (JJA) rain eventsheavy summer (JJA) rain events
Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
![Page 10: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
1958-2000 trend in 1958-2000 trend in heavy summer rain eventsheavy summer rain events
Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
Central and Eastern EuropeCentral and Eastern EuropeAugust 2002August 2002
Fatalities: > 100Fatalities: > 100Economic losses: > US$18 bnEconomic losses: > US$18 bnInsured losses: > US$3 bnInsured losses: > US$3 bn
![Page 11: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Are extremes well simulated byclimate models?
![Page 12: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
90% precipitation quantile, Autumn (SON)90% precipitation quantile, Autumn (SON)
OBS (79-93)
HadRM (CTR1) HIRHAM (CTR1)
Figure provided by Christoph Frei, ETH and STARDEX/PRUDENCE
![Page 13: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
How are extremes projected to change?
![Page 14: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
GC
Column 1: HadAM3. Columns 2-7: six European RCMs
Top row: temperature. Bottom row: rainfall
JJA changes: 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990JJA changes: 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990
![Page 15: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
DJF, Relative Change, Central Europe
Frequency
Intensity 90% Quantile
5-, 10-, 20-year ExtremesMean
![Page 16: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
JJA, Relative Change, Central Europe
Frequency
Intensity 90% Quantile
5-, 10-, 20-year ExtremesMean
![Page 17: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Change in the length of the summer drought between 1961-90 and 2070-2100, based on the HadRM3 (A2a) simulation. Over the Mediterranean region of Europe, especially S. Italy and S. Spain, this number is predicted to increase by more than 30 days.
RAINFALL: Summer Drought
![Page 18: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Are the predicted future changes Are the predicted future changes consistent with the observed consistent with the observed
changes in extremes?changes in extremes?
![Page 19: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Change in mean JJArainfall from 1961-90to 2071-2100 (%)
Change in exceedence of99th percentile of JJA rainfall from 1961-90 to 2071-2100
Christensen & Christensen, Christensen & Christensen, NatureNature, 2003, 2003
![Page 20: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Schaer et al., Schaer et al., NatureNature, 2004, 2004
Beniston, Beniston, GRLGRL, 2004, 2004
![Page 21: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Statistical downscaling – STARDEXStatistical downscaling – STARDEX
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex/
![Page 22: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Heavy winter rainfall and links with Heavy winter rainfall and links with North Atlantic Oscillation/SLPNorth Atlantic Oscillation/SLP
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
NAO -R90N PC2
CC1: Heavy rainfall (R90N) CC1: mean sea level pressure
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
![Page 23: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.50.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
pav pint pq90 px5d pxcdd pfl90 pnl90
Indices/season
Co
rrel
atio
nNW UK (averages of 15 stations)
RBF - yellow, MLP – red, SDSM - green
0
0.1
0.20.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.70.8
0.9
1
pav pint pq90 px5d pxcdd pfl90 pnl90
Indices/season
Co
rrel
atio
n
SE UK(averages of 28 stations)
Colin Harpham and Rob Wilby, KCL/STARDEX
![Page 24: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
pav pint pq90 px5d pxcdd pfl90 pnl90
Indices/season
Co
rrel
atio
n
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
pav pint pq90 px5d pxcdd pfl90 pnl90
Indices/season
Co
rrel
atio
n
Murcia
Alicante
RBF (single-site) - blue, RBF - yellow, GA-RBF – red, SDSM - green
Colin Harpham and Rob Wilby, KCL/STARDEX
![Page 25: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
STARDEX Study Regions
UK: 6 stations
Iberia: 16 stationsGreece: 8 stations
Italy: 7 stations
Alps: 10 stations
Germany: 10 stations
The ‘FIC dataset’
![Page 26: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Method provides: Y/N Comments/Notes Station-scale information Grid-box information European-wide information Daily time series Seasonal indices of extremes Temporally consistent temperature and precipitation
Spatially consistent multi-site information Temporally consistent multi-site information Method requirements : Relatively
high/low Comments/Notes
Computing resources Volume of data inputs Availability of input data
Draft methodological criteria forstatistical and dynamical downscaling
![Page 27: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Relative Performance Confidence High Medium Low Temperature
Indices Seasons Regions
Precipitation Indices
Seasons Regions
Overall performance: Mean temperature
Temperature extremes Mean precipitation
Precipitation extremes
Good/average/poor/NA Good/average/poor/NA Good/average/poor/NA Good/average/poor/NA
Optimal spatial scale: Recommended impact applications:
Draft performance criteria forstatistical and dynamical downscaling
![Page 28: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
What are the potential impacts of the projected changes?
![Page 29: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
MICEMICEModelling the Impact of Climate ExtremesModelling the Impact of Climate Extremes
![Page 30: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
• 2 objectives– To select/develop models to predict the
impact of changing extremes on activity sectors
• Energy use• Insurance losses• Forestry (wind throw – N Europe)• Forestry (fire – Mediterranean)• Agriculture
– Assess spatial changes in these impacts
Work Package 4 – impact modelling
![Page 31: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
• The impact of changes in climate extremes on Mediterranean Agriculture – GIS-based model of fire risk, Tuscany, Italy.
• Environmental Database– Climate– Morphology– Land use and vegetation cover– Forest fire data– Agricultural crops
• FWI and CROPSYST• Interpolation strategies were tested
Work Package 4 – impact modelling
![Page 32: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
10.731.7>1000 m
17.217.3600-1000m
14.210.60-600 m
B2a-AA2a-AAltitude
10.731.7>1000 m
17.217.3600-1000m
14.210.60-600 m
B2a-AA2a-AAltitude
60 00 00 65 00 00 70 0000 75 00 00
4 7 0 0 0 0 0
4 7 5 0 0 0 0
4 8 0 0 0 0 0
4 8 5 0 0 0 0
4 9 0 0 0 0 0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
60 00 00 65 00 00 70 0000 75 00 00
4 7 0 0 0 0 0
4 7 5 0 0 0 0
4 8 0 0 0 0 0
4 8 5 0 0 0 0
4 9 0 0 0 0 0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
A2a-A B2a-A
-3%7%>1000 m
17%30%600-1000m
20%23%0-600 m
B2a-AA2a-AAltitude
-3%7%>1000 m
17%30%600-1000m
20%23%0-600 m
B2a-AA2a-AAltitude6 000 00 6 500 00 70 000 0 75 000 0
4 700 000
4 750 000
4 800 000
4 850 000
4 900 000
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
6 000 00 6 500 00 70 000 0 75 000 0
4 700 000
4 750 000
4 800 000
4 850 000
4 900 000
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
X 100X 100
A2a-A B2a-A
95th percentile values of the FWI for August expressed as the difference between future scenarios (A2a, B2a) and the present scenario (A).
Increase in the risk of heat stress during flowering stages expressed as the difference between future scenarios (A2a, B2a) and the present scenario (A)
![Page 33: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
• 4 mini workshops:– Climate Change and Winter Tourism 04.11.03,
Lucerne. 34 participants, discussions about the uncertain future of winter tourism in the Alps
– Poznan, impacts on flooding – 25.03.04– Lund, impacts on forests and high latitude
ecosystems – 06.05.04– Crete, impacts on Mediterranean beach
tourism – 05.06.04
Work Package 5
![Page 34: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
This co-operative cluster of projects brings together European expertise in the fields of climate modelling, regional downscaling, statistics, and impacts analysis to explore future changes in extreme events in response to global warming.•PRUDENCE will provide high-resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for Europe using regional climate models. PRUDENCE project summary•STARDEX will provide improved downscaling methodologies for the construction of scenarios of changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. STARDEX project summary•MICE uses information from climate models to explore future changes in extreme events across Europe in response to global warming. MICE project summary Last modified:16 August 2002 MICE STARDEX PRUDENCEProject Web Sites:
Contact InformationCopyright information: the above photo montage was created in XaraX using copyright pictures from: © Collier County Florida Emergency Management and © Environment Agency.The three projects are supported by the European Commission under the Framework V Thematic Programme ”Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development” (EESD), 2002-2005.
Scroll down for Project Summaries: follow the links above to Project Web Sites.
Hit CounterWeb Site designed and implemented by Tom Holt, © 2002
Comments and suggestions welcome: [email protected]
PRUDENCE
STARDEX
MICE
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/
![Page 35: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35 00/XXXX © Crown copyrightHadleyCentre
ENSEMBLES
ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts
![Page 36: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
36 00/XXXX © Crown copyright
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research HadleyCentre
ENSEMBLES
A five year project under EC Framework Programme VI
Start date 1 September? (concluding negotiations)
Funding from EC of 15 million Euros
72 partners - EU, candidate countries, Switzerland, Australia, US
Ten Research Themes
![Page 37: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37 00/XXXX © Crown copyright
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research HadleyCentre
ENSEMBLES
Project Goals Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the
principal state-of-the-art high resolution, global and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales
Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System
Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management
![Page 38: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38 00/XXXX © Crown copyright
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research HadleyCentre
Scientific and Technological Objectives 1-3 Produce probabilistic predictions from seasonal
to decadal & longer timescales through the use of ensembles, and use these to explore the related impacts
Integrate additional processes in climate models to produce true Earth System models
Develop higher resolution climate models to provide more regionally detailed climate predictions and better information on extreme events
ENSEMBLES
![Page 39: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
39 00/XXXX © Crown copyright
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research HadleyCentre
Scientific and Technological Objectives 4-6 Reduce uncertainty in climate predictions
through increased understanding of climate processes and feedbacks and through evaluation and validation of models and techniques
Increased application of climate predictions by a growing and increasingly diverse user community
Increased availability of scientific knowledge and provision of relevant information related to the impacts of climate change, within the scientific community, and to stakeholders, policymakers and the public
ENSEMBLES
![Page 40: Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia .](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e415503460f94b337b6/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
40 00/XXXX © Crown copyrightHadleyCentre
ENSEMBLES Research Themes
RT Name Co-ordinators
0 Project integration, management and promotion Dave Griggs
1 Development of the Ensemble Prediction System James Murphy, Tim Palmer
2A Production of seasonal to decadal hindcasts and
climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1) Guy Brasseur, Jean-François Royer
2B Production of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob
Assessments (Model Engine Part 2)
3 Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Jens Christensen,
Model Ensembles for Europe Markku Rummukainen
4 Understanding the processes governing climate Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut
variability and change, climate predictability and
the probability of extreme events
5 Independent comprehensive evaluation of the Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank
ENSEMBLES simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses
6 Assessments of impacts of climate change Andy Morse, Colin Prentice
7 Scenarios and Policy Implications Richard Tol, Roberto Roson
8 Dissemination, Education, and Training Martin Beniston,
Christos Giannakopolous