Overview of the SUST-RUS project

Natalia Tourdyeva (CEFIR)

Overview of the project

• Project’s goal– Comprehensive assessment of policies

related to sustainable development agenda (as it is understood by Russian and international policy makers)

Overview of the project

• Assessment • Different policies (3 dimensions) – unified framework

– Core model: CGE• A country model – Russia• Regions – 7 federal districts

– Producers– Consumers– Regional Gov

• trade links between regions in the model (federal districts)• regional trade links with the rest of the world• federal government• saving-investment block• macro closure(s)• time

Overview of the project

• Assessment• Different policies (3 dimensions) – unified

framework– Special blocks

• Environmental • International • Social block

– Model reliability - verification

Overview of the project

• Comprehensive– A language of policy makers: Sustainability

indicators– Scenario design– Policy recommendations

Overview of the project

WP0 Project management (CEFIR)

WP2 Data collection and analysis (CEFIR)

WP3 General structure of the model (TML)

WP6 International dimension (TML)

WP7 Social dimension (CEFIR)

WP5 Environmental dimension (ZEW)

WP4 Sustainability indicators (TML)

WP8 Linking the three dimensions of sustainability(TML)

WP9 Policy analysis including assessment of the model reliability (ZEW)

WP10 Dissemination of the project results (CEFIR)

WP1 Development of methodology(CEFIR)

Existing Russian CGE models

• Russian CGE models– RUSEC – academician V. L. Makarov’s model– BEA models (early version of Rutherfods’ model:

Andrey Zemnitsky) – CEFIR models:

• Whalley-type simple trade model • Ecomod-type tax model• Simple tax model + microsimulation• Regional model: interbudgetary issues

– GTAP model

Existing Russian CGE models

• Tom Rutherford’s models: WTO assessment– Main features of the core model:

• increasing returns to scale (Dixit-Stiglitz love for variety)• multinationals and FDI in business services

– Available models – The Worldbank site (http://go.worldbank.org/NWK0H6OU70 )

• Country model with a representative agent – the core model

• Country model with 48,000 households – poverty evaluation

• Regional model (10 regions in Russia) – regional consequences

Data

• Major issues to have in mind– IO tables

– Country IO– Regional IOs

– Interregional trade

Data

• Country IO – Last published Russian IO

• 2003 OKONH (old Russian industrial classification)• 23 industries

– Since 2004 – OKVED (NACE-based classification)• Any communications with policy makers – in OKVED

terms

– Transform 2003 IO to OKVED (NACE, ISIC – based GTAP classification)

• Disaggregate IO 2003 on the basis of a detailed 1995 IO • Aggregate to GTAP sectors (48 sectors)

Data

• Regional IOs• Tom Rutherford – set of Russian regional IOs for 2001

(23 industries - OKONH format) (http://go.worldbank.org/IDHFFMGYS0)

– To build a regional IO: Start from a country IO • Assumption – technologies are the same - IO coefficients

from a country table• Regional output• Services production • Household consumption • Investment • Government consumption on a regional level • Interregional trade• Region’s International trade

Data

• Interregional trade– We have so far: 2001 data– 256 commodities – Interregional trade in services?

Data

• Conclusion– Lots of work

– Important decisions – next meeting on data collection