Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas...
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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
Overview of the IPCC WGI Report
Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe
259 Authors from 39 Countries
WGI TSU Team
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Key SPM Messages
19 Headlines on less than 2 Pages
2
> 1,140,000 words
Summary for
Policymakers
ca. 14,000 words
14 Chapters, Atlas
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3
Observation
Understanding
Future
Ch 2, 3, 4, 5
Ch 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Ch 11, 12, 13, 14 Atlas of Regional Change
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Fig
. S
PM
.1
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and
since the 1950s, many of the observed changes
are unprecedented over decades to millennia.
Anom
aly
(°C
) re
lative t
o 1
961
-1990
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Fig. 3.1
© IPCC 2013
It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0-700 m)
warmed from 1971 to 2010, [...]. It is likely that the ocean
warmed between 700 and 2000 m from 1957 to 2009.
Change in upper ocean temperature (°C)
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Energ
y (
10
21 J
oule
s)
Ocean warming dominates the
increase in energy stored in the
climate system, accounting for
more than 90% of the energy
accumulated between 1971 and
2010 (high confidence).
Box 3.1, Fig. 1 © IPCC 2013
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7
Observation
Understanding
Future
Ch 2, 3, 4, 5
Ch 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Ch 11, 12, 13, 14 Atlas of Regional Change
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The atmospheric concentrations of carbon
dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have all
increased since 1750 due to human activity.
CO2: +40%
CH4: +150%
N2O: +20%
Fig
. 6.1
1
yr 0 − 1750
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Fig
. S
PM
.5
© I
PC
C 2
013
CO2 provides
largest RF
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Global mean warming since 1951 (°C)
Solar, Volcanic
Aerosols
CO2, CH4, N2O
Anthropogenic
Internal Variability
Observed
Fig. TS.10
The observed warming 1951−2010 is
approximately 0.6°C to 0.7°C.
© I
PC
C 2
013
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Global mean warming since 1951 (°C)
Solar, Volcanic
Aerosols
CO2, CH4, N2O
Anthropogenic
Internal Variability
Observed
Fig. TS.10
It is extremely likely that human influence has
been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.
© I
PC
C 2
013
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Fig. SPM.6
Human influence on the
climate system is clear.
© IPCC 2013
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13
Observation
Understanding
Future
Ch 2, 3, 4, 5
Ch 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Ch 11, 12, 13, 14 Atlas of Regional Change
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RCP8.5
CO2eq = 1313 ppm)
Fig
. S
PM
.8
RCP2.6
CO2eq = 475 ppm)
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Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006)
Annex I: Atlas of Global and
Regional Climate Projections
Maps for 3 time horizons
2016-35, 2046-65, 2081-2100
reference period 1986-2005
Fig
. A
I.3
Fig
. A
I.4
35 regions
42 global climate models
2 variables
Temperature, Precipitation
4 scenarios
RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5
2 seasons
temp: DJF, JJA (for temp)
precip: AMJJAS, ONDJFM
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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
www.climatechange2013.org Further Information