Overview of the Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom ... Session/4... · 3/16/2016 · Overview of...

NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICESNOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES

Overview of the Gulf of Mexico

Harmful Algal Bloom

Operational Forecast System (HAB-OFS)

Kate DernerNOAA National Ocean Service

Center for Operational Oceanographic Products & Services

March 16, 2016

NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES

HAB-OFS Overview

• HAB-OFS Background

• Why it’s needed

• How it developed

• Bulletin Content

• 2015-2016 Bloom

• Improvements & ChallengesPhoto Credit: TPWD, Dave Buzan


Impacts of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) of

Karenia brevis in the Gulf of Mexico

• HABs=The rapid growth of toxic or nuisance algae

• Impacts of Karenia brevis may include:

o Discolored water

o Death of fish, mammals, reptiles and birds exposed to

toxins

o Human illness- contaminated shellfish and/or

respiratory irritation

o Economic impacts- Reduced seafood sales and/or

coastal tourism


• K. brevis blooms have been documented in the GOMX since at least

the 1700s and are most frequent in southwest Florida

• At least one bloom, almost every year for the past 30 years

• Bloom “season” = August 1 to early February

• Blooms last weeks, months or over a year

Gulf of Mexico (GOMX): number of years with

known Karenia brevis blooms 1957-2014

Adapted from figure from Cindy Heil, FWRI http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/HAB_GCOOS_report.pdf


Coverage of the Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal

Bloom Operational Forecast System


Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Operational

Forecast System

• Audience:o Coastal resource managers

o State and federal officials

o Academic and research institutions

o General public (via website)

• Bulletins provide:o Advance detection of new HAB events

o Monitoring of active HABs and descriptions of their location, extent, intensity and observations of associated impacts

o Forecasts

subscribe at: www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/bulletins

http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/bulletins


Bulletin Dissemination Schedule

• Issued twice weekly after the confirmation of a

HAB – (Monday & Thursday)

• Issued once weekly during inactive bloom

periods– (Monday)

• Supplemental bulletins and conditions report

updates issued as necessary


NWS Beach Hazard Statements

WFOS

•Tampa Bay

•Miami

•Key West

•Criteria-based:oOnshore HAB

oHigh levels of

respiratory irritation

are forecast by

HAB-OFS

Available from weather.gov

http://www.weather.gov/


Gulf of Mexico HAB-OFS


Variety of Data Types Integrated into

HAB-OFS Bulletin

3. Currents & Winds

1. Satellite Imagery

4. Health Reports

Photo Credits: NOAA, UTMSI, WHOI, CDC, MML

2. Water Samples

Observations


• Detection of HABs via Satellite Imagery

• Forecasts:o Respiratory Irritation Impacts

Based on Water Samples, Wind and Satellite Imagery

o Potential for Bloom FormationBased on Season and Wind data

o IntensificationBased on Wind data and Water Samples

o TransportBased on Wind and Current data

HAB-OFS Monitoring and Forecasts


• To aid in the analysis, Anomaly Images are produced by NOAA

CoastWatch.

• High anomalies (in yellow) are areas where the daily chlorophyll

concentration is significantly higher than the average for a particular

region.

Gulf of Mexico: Imagery Processing

- --

Chlorophyll-a Daily Image 60-Day Mean Chlorophyll Anomaly


Texas: Imagery Processing

- --

Chlorophyll-a

Daily Image

60-Day

Mean

Chlorophyll

Anomaly

• High resuspension along the Texas coast results in false positives when the

regular chlorophyll anomaly algorithm is used.

• Resuspension (R667Anomaly image) from CoastWatch is paired with the

Chlorophyll Anomaly image to create the Revised Chlorophyll Anomaly

that we use on the Texas bulletin.

-

Resuspension

(R667Anomaly)

Revised Chlorophyll

Anomaly--

X 200


Florida: Imagery Ensemble

Chlorophyll

Anomaly

Ensemble

• Ensemble combines the

chlorophyll anomaly with

algorithms that target

specific properties of K.

brevis blooms:

o Backscatter

o Spectral Shape

• Reduces false positives in

southwest Florida.

• FL – Sept 2015


Forecasts:Level of Respiratory Irritation

≈

=

K. brevis cell

concentrationsBrevetoxin

concentrations

Winds

Respiratory Irritation


Resolution: Half-county (~30-60 km) or region (TX)

Timing/Duration:

• Highest potential level of respiratory irritation per day

• In the next 3-4 days (through the next bulletin day)

Forecasts:Level of Respiratory Irritation


• Upwelling favorable winds promote the accumulation of

cells at the coast:o bloom formation at the coast if bloom has formed offshore

(SW FL)o intensification when there is a developing bloom (SW & NW FL)

Forecasts:

Potential for Bloom Formation & Intensification


Photo Credit: TGLO

Forecasts:

Bloom Transport

• Bloom movement is predicted

based on observed and forecasted

surface winds and modeled

current data


• How do the forecasts compare to observed data?

• For each forecast type, the team routinely

assesses:

o Forecast accuracy (% correct, probability of

detection, threat score false alarm ratio)

o Reliability

o Relative forecast accuracy (skill)

HAB-OFS Monitoring and Forecasts


04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14

Transport Intensification Bloom Formation

Respiratory Irritation

Florida Forecast Accuracy (Percent Correct) 2004-2014


2015 -2016 Bloom Season

Texas NW Florida to

Louisiana

Southwest

Florida

•3 separate blooms identified simultaneously in Texas, NW

Florida, and SW Florida in mid-September


2015 -2016 Bloom Season

•Up to high concentrations of K. brevis throughout all states

•Received weekly to daily reports of respiratory irritation

from “slight” to “intense” in all regions

•Public inquiries regarding health, bloom duration, impacts

•Shellfish harvesting was impacted across all states

•NWFL bloom extended to AL, MS, and LA

• coordination across states

•Decision support tool for coastal resource managers and

public health officials


•Satellite imagery products – ensemble imagery

•More efficient forecasting – respiratory irritation forecast

tool

•Future infrastructure upgrades in development• Improved efficiency

•Make product improvements possible, such as:• Georeferenced PDF

• Interactive web map

Improvements & Challenges

Improvements•Obtaining cell count data and respiratory irritation

observations, particularly outside of FL for forecast

development and validationo Addition of 2 Imaging FlowCytobots in TX

Challenges

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/home/signin.html?returnUrl=http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/home/

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/home/signin.html?returnUrl=http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/home/


Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute

Mote Marine Laboratory

Florida Department of Health

Sarasota County Health Department

Collier County Pollution Control & Prevention Department

Alabama Department of Public Health

Mississippi Department of Marine Resources

Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals

Texas Parks and Wildlife Division

Texas Department of State Health Services

Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi

External Partners & Data Providers


Questions

[email protected]

tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/hab.html

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/hab.html

Overview of the Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom ... Session/4... · 3/16/2016 · Overview of...

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