Overview of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Lisa Holts.
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Transcript of Overview of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Lisa Holts.
Overview of theColorado Basin River Forecast Center
Lisa Holts
What we do….
Support Flash Flood Program
Event Driven (rain, snowmelt) River Forecasts
Recreational Forecasts (River trends – Peak Flows)
Water Supply => Reservoir Management
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Our Mission: Protection of lives and property – Enhancement of the nation’s economy
WFO and RFC partnership
Daily River Forecasts Daily River Forecasts and Flood Forecastsand Flood Forecasts
Collect and QC data Collect and QC data Run Hydrologic ModelRun Hydrologic Model Produce daily river forecastsProduce daily river forecasts Manual forecast updates at Manual forecast updates at
– 6:30am, 11:00am, 4:00pm6:30am, 11:00am, 4:00pm
Automated forecast updates atAutomated forecast updates at– 12:00 am12:00 am
During floods… updates as needed/requestedDuring floods… updates as needed/requested
HydrologicModeling
Radar Data
River Gage Data
SnowPrecipitationForecasts
Soil Moisture StatesDeterministic / Probabilistic River Forecasts
ReservoirReleasesPrecipitation
Estimates
Satellite Data
Hydrologic Forecasting Hydrologic Forecasting Inputs/OutputsInputs/Outputs
TemperatureForecasts
NWS
NOAA
Mountain Mapper – Daily QC
Precipitation InputPrecipitation Input Multisensor Precipitation Estimates – MPEMultisensor Precipitation Estimates – MPE
– GageGage– RadarRadar– SatelliteSatellite
GridsGrids formatformat
MAPMAP
Future Precipitation & Temperature & Freezing Level
Point Values(HPC)
Grid Values(Prism Scaling)
Basin Values
5 days of QPF10 days temperatures
GFEGFE Increased leverage of GFEIncreased leverage of GFE
– View QPF differences View QPF differences between sourcesbetween sources
– Allows WFO to view QPF Allows WFO to view QPF going into the modelgoing into the model
Make adjustments in Make adjustments in specify stillspecify still
Future: will just use GFE Future: will just use GFE and eliminate specifyand eliminate specify
Example Display From NWSRFS-Interactive Forecast Program
Simulated -*
Observed - O
Adjusted=Forecast
ProcessingProcessingIFP Data TableIFP Data Table
ProcessingIFP Runtime Modifications
ProcessingIFP Unit Hydrograph Modification
Example:Hydrograph PlotCBRFC Web Site
NWSRFS Segments 500River Forecast Points 165
Forecast LimitationsForecast LimitationsQuality of forecast depends on inputsQuality of forecast depends on inputs
Observed precipitation
Observed flow
NWSRFSModel
Future Temperature
QPF
Data availability and Future uncertaintyModel states
Data sparse in Northern ArizonaData sparse in Northern Arizona
Forecast Limitations
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Future Uncertainty - Precipitation
Amounts & Timing Are Perfect: BUT Wrong Basin
2.00” 1.00”
Result
No Rise
2.00” 1.00”
Forecast
Flood Stage
Forecast Limitations
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Future Uncertainty - Precipitation
Basin Is Right: BUT Forecast Amounts Too High
Result
1.00 0.50”
Peaks Lower
Forecast
2.00” 1.00”
Flood Stage
NWS
NOAA Forecast Limitations
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Future Uncertainty - Precipitation
Basin Is Right: BUT Forecast Amounts Too Low
Result
3.00 2.00”
Peaks Higher
2.00” 1.00”
Forecast
Flood Stage
NWS
NOAA Forecast Limitations
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Future Uncertainty - Precipitation
Basin Is Right-Amounts are Right: wrong intensity
Result: Packed Into 6 hours
2.00 1.00”
Peaks Faster & Higher
2.00” 1.00”
Forecast For 24 Hours
Flood Stage
NWS River Forecasting SystemNWS River Forecasting SystemNWSRFSNWSRFS
Collection of models and processesCollection of models and processes Three componentsThree components
– Calibration SystemCalibration System– Operational Forecasting SystemOperational Forecasting System– Ensemble Streamflow PredictionEnsemble Streamflow Prediction
NWSRFS-Three Components
Poorly Calibrated Basin
Simulated Observed
Simulated Observed
Much Better Calibrated Basin
Operational Forecast System Operational Forecast System (OFS)(OFS)
Preprocesses observed and future dataPreprocesses observed and future data Updates model state parametersUpdates model state parameters Provides short-term river and flood forecasts Provides short-term river and flood forecasts
– 0 to 14 days out– 0 to 14 days out
Interactive Forecast ProgramInteractive Forecast Program
Ensemble Streamflow Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)Prediction (ESP)
Uses historical precipitation, temperature Uses historical precipitation, temperature and evaporation dataand evaporation data
Uses current model statesUses current model states Produces mid- to long-range probabilistic Produces mid- to long-range probabilistic
forecast (weeks to months into the future)forecast (weeks to months into the future)
Ensemble Streamflow PredictionEnsemble Streamflow Prediction
ClimateForecast
Adjustments
Daily RFCForecasting•Data Ingest•Data QC•Model Updating
Current Conditions•Soil•Reservoir Levels•Streamflow
HistoricalTime Series
All Years ofRecord
ForecastTime
Series
Mean ArealTime Series
PrecipitationTemperature
NWSRFSHydrologic
Models
Time S
tre
am
flo
w
April-July
-> Future Time
Today’s Conditions
River / Res. Levels
Soil Moisture
Snowpack
19711972197319741975
1971
Future Streamflow
Past <-
Ensemble StreamFlow Prediction
7172737475
PrecipitationTemperature
Start with Today’s Conditions - Create several possible future streamflow patterns - Based on historical climate.
Supporting the Flash Flood Supporting the Flash Flood ProgramProgram
NWSRFS – Lumped 6 hourly modelNWSRFS – Lumped 6 hourly model CBRFC has recalibrated Arizona segments CBRFC has recalibrated Arizona segments
to an hourly time stepto an hourly time step blurred line when RFC can or cannot blurred line when RFC can or cannot
model eventmodel event For flash floods, RFC provides tools to help For flash floods, RFC provides tools to help
WFO decide when to issue FFWsWFO decide when to issue FFWs– FFG, FFPIFFG, FFPI
Soil type ? Vegetation type and density ?
Land Use ?
Fire activity ?Slopes?
Try to qualify the flash flood threat
Highlight flash flood prone areas
Flash Flood Potential Index
concept
Water Supply OperationsWater Supply Operations
Volumetric forecast for the runoff seasonVolumetric forecast for the runoff season Essential to water managers (dam operations, Essential to water managers (dam operations,
water allocation, water planning, etc..)water allocation, water planning, etc..) Issues January through JulyIssues January through July forecasters devote first 4 days of the month to forecasters devote first 4 days of the month to
water supply forecastingwater supply forecasting 146 water supply forecast points146 water supply forecast points Spring is the busiest time for the RFC Spring is the busiest time for the RFC
Water SupplyWater Supply Monthly water supply Monthly water supply
forecasts generated for forecasts generated for seasonal volumes seasonal volumes during winter / spring during winter / spring seasonsseasons
Questions?Questions?