Overview of Numerical Weather Predictions at NMC/CMA GONG Jiandong National Meteorological Center...
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Overview of Numerical Weather Predictions at NMC/CMA
GONG Jiandong
National Meteorological Center (NMC)China Meteorological Administration
(CMA)
CMA NWP Structure in Head-Quarter
• Two units in CMA Head-quarter for numerical weather model development, (not include air pollution model and climate model)
1. Numerical Model Prediction Division at NMC (NMC/NWPD)
2. Center of Numerical Prediction and Research at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA (CAMS/CNPR)
• CMA/CAMS/CNPR is a numerical model research unit, established in 2000, focuses on CMA next generational unified Global and Regional analysis and prediction system (GRAPES), with about 20 researches.
18, 44%
13, 33%
9, 23%DrMasterBachel or
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
人数 1 5 5 26 3
40' s 50' s 60' s 70' s 80' s
65%
12.5%
(Total FTE): 40
77.5 % 77.5 % have have Master and Dr. Master and Dr. DegreeDegree
> 80% stuffs are > 80% stuffs are undertaking the undertaking the research and research and developmentdevelopment
CMA/NMC/NWPD STUFFS
Education
Education Age
CMA/NMC model development in historyOperationa
l dateNumerical
ModelResoluti
onVertical Levels
Analysis Super-computer
1991.6 T42L9 320KM 9- lev OI CYBER
1992.3 LAFS 200KM 15- lev OI CYBER
1995.6 T63L16 200KM 16- lev OI CRAY-C92
1995.5 HLAFS 110KM 15- lev OI CRAY-C92
1997.6 T106L19 120KM 19- lev OI CRAY-C92
1998.4 0.5HLAFS 55KM 20- lev OI CRAY-C92
2002.9 T213L31 60KM 31- lev OI IBM-SP
2003.3 0.25HLAFS 27KM 20- lev OI IBM-SP
2006.8 GRAPES-Meso
30km 31-z lev
/35km
3DVar SP CLUSTER 1600
2006.12
T213/SSI 60KM 31- lev 3DVar SP CLUSTER 1600
0
20
40
60
80
100
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
RM
SE
48h
96h
144h
50rms
B T42L9 T63L16 T106L19 T213L31
OPERATIONAL GLOBAL NWP IN NMCRMSE OF 500HPA HEIGHT OVER NORTH HEMISPHERE
Other CMA/NMC model development in historyOperational
dateOperational Model Super-
computer
1998.6—>2000.8—>2004.6
Beijing Regional Meso-scale model—>
HuaBei Regional Meso-scale model( HB-MM5)— >
NMC Meso-scale model
SP-2
Shenwei-1
1995.2005.6
Regional Typhoon Track Prediction(MTTP)Global Typhoon Track Prediction ( GMTTP)
CRAY-C92
IBM-SP
2000.32006.12
Global EPS based on T106L19, SV,32members
Global EPS based on T213L31, BGM,15 mem
Shenwei-1 SP-1600
1998.2002
Nuclear pollution transport and dispersion model system
Server
1999.2004.6
Forest Fire Alarm (model)
Forest Fire Meteorological Alarm system
CRAY-C92
IBM-SP
2001.6 City Air-pollution (47 cities) Shenwei-1
2006.12 Dust-storm Prediction system SP 1600
2006.12 Global Wave prediction system SP 1600
2007-2008 Operational Systems • Basic Operational Systems: (operataional date) • Global -3DVAR & Global Medium Range Forecast System( T639L60,
T213L31+ 3DVAR,2002.9/2006.12, ATOVS>90% )• Meso-scale Forecast System( GRAPES-MESO 2006.8 ) • Global Ensemble Prediction System( T213L31-GEPS,15m, 2006.12 ) • Global Typhoon Track Prediction System( T213-GTTP,2006.1 )• Numerical Model Verification System( 198x,199x )• Numerical Model Operation Support System( SMS, 2006.1)
• Basic Environment Prediction Systems :• Global/Regional/EPS Wave Forecast System( NMC-WAV,2005.8 )• Regional Dust-Storm Prediction System(MM5/GRAPES,2006.12)• Nuclear pollution transport and dispersion model system ( T213/WRF-
HYSPLIT4,2001.9,2008.4 )• UVI prediction System ( T213-SUV, 2004.6 )• Forest-Fire Alert System( T213-FIRE,2004.6)• Weather Modification Meteorological Condition system (GRAPES,2007)
Radio-sonde
Synop
Aircraft
Pilot
Ship
Conventional observations
AMSU-A n15,16
AMSU-B n15,16,17
Track wind
Operational model upgrade :T639L60• Use NCEP-GSI with T639L60 resolution, with eta
vertical coordinate to match model• Background error tuning.• Parallel upgrade to handle T639L60 resolution• NOAA 15/16/17 ATOVS 1b data assimilation tuning
• Base on T213L31 model, and upgrade in1. Linear Gaussian Grid (T213 T319)2. SETTLS (Stable Extrapolation Two-Time_level
Scheme), with kindly help of ECMWF3. With Rayleigh friction above 9hPa4. Upgrade new cloud and cumulus parameterization5. Upgrade land-surface data6. Upgrade land-surface model initialization scheme
东亚年平均500百帕高度距平相关系数
0
0. 2
0. 4
0. 6
0. 8
1
1. 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
时效/天
639
nwp
北半球年平均500百帕高度距平相关系数
0
0. 2
0. 4
0. 6
0. 8
1
1. 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
时效/天
639nwp
南半球年平均500百帕高度距平相关系数
0
0. 2
0. 4
0. 6
0. 8
1
1. 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
时效/天
639nwp
Annual mean
East Asia 500hpa ACC NH 500hpa ACC
SH 500hpa ACC热带年平均500百帕高度均方根误差
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
时效/天
639nwp
Tropical 500hpa RMSE
Bias
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
36h 60h 84h 108h 132h
小雨 T213
小雨 T639
中雨 T 213中雨 T639
大雨 T213
大雨 T639
暴雨 T213
暴雨 T639
大暴雨 T213
大暴雨 T639
TS
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
36h 60h 84h 108h 132h
小雨 T213
小雨 T639
中雨 T213
中雨 T639
大雨 T213
大雨 T639
暴雨 T213
暴雨 T639
大暴雨 T213
大暴雨 T639
Precipitation
The performance of the TC Track predict System
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
70019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Mea
n t
rack
ero
ors
(km
)
24h
48h
72h
Mean track errors from 1995-2006
MTTP GMTTP
2007 Typhoon Track Forecast error (Km)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
24h 48h 72hf orecast t i me (hour)
mean fcst track error (km) 中国主观
日本主观
关岛主观
日本全球模式
日本台风模式
英国全球模式
中国业务系统
中国新系统
24h 48h 72h
CMA Offical 116.1 180.5 247.8
JMA Offical 120.5 209.2 270.6
NOAA Offical 101.2 169.3 245.1
JMA Global Model 120.2 181.9 245.0
JMA Typhoon Model 127.8 203.6 275.6
KMA Global Model 149.6 231.3 316.5
CMA Typhoon Operational Model CMA Typhoon Operational Model 163.6 267.0 391.6
CMA New Typhoon ModelCMA New Typhoon Model 118.3 200.1 271.9
Global Typhoon Track Ensemble Prediction System real-time Trial
RMSE (NH 500mb Height)average for 20060601-20060831
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10valid(day)
RM
S er
rors
ACC (NH 500mb Height)average for 20060601-20060831
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10valid(day)
AC
C S
core
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
5 day
等概率 1/33=0.3
Original T106 EPS
Red line for best spread
New operational T213L31 EPS
ACC
Ensemble Mean
Control Run
预报天数
均方根误差
Global EPS upgrade
EPS mean error
Spread
Control Run
预报天数
WWRPBeijing 2008 Olympics Mesoscale
Ensemble Prediction Research and Development Project (WWRP/B08RDP) MEP RDP participating systems:
CMA meso-scale EPS (NMC/CAMS) NCEP new version SREF EC regional EPS JMA global/meso-scale EPS NCAR WRF system Austrian weather service and Météo-France joint
system (ARPEGE/ALADIN/AROME)
CMA/NMC JMA/MRI
EC NCEP ZAMG/FR
Rainfall observation More Products see http://www.b08rdp.org
Weather Modification Condition
UV index
Asia Dust Storm
Forest fire alarm
Global Wave
Global Wave Ensemble
Regional Wave
Fine-scale Wave
WAVEWATCH III
开县高桥镇
Noxious air dispersion
( 23日 22时 -26日 20时 )
0-500米高度内传输路径
1500米高度上传输路径
3000米高度上传输路径
开县高桥镇
Distribute within 48 h
( 23日 22时 -25日 20时 )
Global pollution transport and dispersion model system
5km regional pollution transport and dispersion model system
Various height transport height
Surface to 100m noxious gas dispersion (1hour
interval)
After started, can provide 1~5km, 1hour interval noxious gas transport and dispersion products within 30 minutes
CMA Next Generation Unified Model: GRAPES
Meso-scale configuration
Meso-scale configuration
Medium-RangeConfiguration
Medium-RangeConfiguration
Climate Configuration
Climate Configuration Ocean ModelOcean Model
Plug in interface: Multi-scale Physical and Chemical processes
Meso-scale processes
Meso-scale processes
Medium-rangeProcesses
Medium-rangeProcesses
ClimateProcesses
ClimateProcesses Ocean PhysicsOcean Physics
Meso-scale Analysis and
Prediction System
Forecast Model
Forecast Model
AdjointModel
AdjointModel
Multi-scale atmospheric unified dynamical structure
Global Analysis and Prediction
System
Climate Prediction
System
Ensemble Forecasts
Atmospheric Research
Sand & Dust Forecasts
Operational Implementation
Field exp. Simul. TC Forecasts
Nowcasting
Operationally implemented in NMC, RMCs (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Provinces, …); more than 50 group users (including universities, research institutions)
Training Tool
Toward Climate modeling
R_15km, G_60km
Model Application
GRAPESApplications
Assimilation3DVAR/4DVAR
Dynamical CoreFull compressible
HY/NH
GRAPESVert. CoodinateH. Terrain Flw.
Phy. SchemesFull Phy. package
ResolutionMulti-scales
Code Architec. Mod./Parall.
Time Integrat.Semi-Implicit
Space Integrat. Semi-Lagangian
GRAPES( Global/Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System )The project was launched since 2001. It is cosponsored and
supported by Chinese MOST and CMA.
New Advanced of NWP SystemM
od
el Fram
ewo
rk
Skill of Severe Weather Prediction
2006. 06. 01- 2007. 10. 31
0
0. 1
0. 2
0. 3
0. 4
0. 5
0. 6
≥ 0. 1mm ≥ 10mm ≥ 25mm ≥ 50mm ≥ 100mm
TS
24h 48h
Grapes-global will be put in parallel run this year
Northern Hemisphere
Southern Hemisphere
Annual Average of ACC of Grapes-global
2010 Operational Systems (planed)• Basic Operational Systems : • Global -3DVAR & GFS ( T639L60+ 3DVAR, GRAPES+3DVAR 50Km,
ATOVS+AIRS+GPS/COSMIC,+Track wind>90%, )• Regional-3DVAR & Model( GRAPES_Meso+3DVAR 15km,
ATOVS+Radar+AWS+GPS/MET >90%, 1hour GRAPES-RUC ) • Ensemble Prediction (T639L60control + T213L31/15-50 member, ET
perturbation, WRF/GRAPES-meso EPS, 15-50m, TIGGE products ) • Typhoon Track ( T639L60-GTTP, GRAPES-meso-RTTP,
Global/Regional Typhoon EPS )• Verification ( 6 hour real-time verification, Real-time verification )• Operation Support System (SMS+WEB+PrepIFS+Database+GRID)
• Basic Environment Prediction Systems :• Wave Forecast( T639L60-wave, 15/5km wave, wave-EPS )• Environment Emergency ( T639L60-HYSPLIT, 15/5/1km HYSPLIT )• Hydrological Forecast ( two way nest)• Others (Dust-storm, forest fire, weather modification, UV-index)
ECMWF
NCAR
CMA
LDM Server
Srv-1: LDM
LDM Server
Srv-2:
Srv-3: MARS(testing)
Srv-4: DB (testing)
InternetInternet
Srv-5:
Srv-6: FTP Service
LANLAN
集群内通过 GPFS共享数据
Infrastructure (1) – current design ( For MARS Modification)
备份 /恢复EMC Legato Networker
TyphoonTyphoon
NMC NMC UsersUsers
Data processing
磁盘阵列
GPFSFS-Manager
Srv-0: CSM Server
Receiving Data
Sending Data
Service for Users
Providing Data
TIGGE DATA ARCHIVE CENTER
Summary of TIGGE data at CMA
Data ProvideForecast
(Hour,day)Times/
DayStart date
Data Vol.(GB)
File number
ecmf(ECMWF) 360h, 15d 2 02/2007 31,708106,231,93
6
kwbc(NCEP) 384h, 16d 4 04/2007 1,427 20,802,492
egrr(UKMO) 360h, 15d 2 10/2006 6,285 51,314,600
rjtd(JMA) 216h, 9d 1 07/2007 976 16,978,800
babj(CMA) 240h, 10d 2 01/2007 11,512 33,499,620
ammc(BoM) 240h, 10d 2 05/2007 1,277 24,633,774
cwao(CMC) 384h, 16d 2 10/2007 546 12,357,387
lfpw(Meteo France)
60h, 2.5d 1 10/2007 8 408,132
Total 53,738266,226,74
1
(Data for Dec. 18. 2007)