Overview of CPC andThe Winter Outlook

Mike Halpert, Deputy DirectorClimate Prediction Center / NCEP

November, 2010

• Ongoing CPC Activities• La Niña• Winter Outlook

Outline

CPC MissionCPC Mission

• National temperature and precipitation National temperature and precipitation outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal rankingsrankings

• Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. (i.e. short term climateshort term climate))

• Forecasts in collaboration with other Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs agencies and labs

• Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of ProductsProducts

We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment

products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and

the enhancement of the economy.

Temperature Outlook

Climate Prediction Products

• Focus on week-2 to seasonal-to-interannual

6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics)

Monthly & Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

Seasonal Drought Outlook

Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific)

Monthly ENSO Prediction

* Dynamical Models • Climate Forecast System• Global Forecast System• ECMWF

Tools used to develop prediction products• Dynamical Models• Statistical Models• Historical Analogs• Historical Composites

5

6-10 Day Outlook

WashingtonBelow: 32%Near: 36%Above: 32%

NN

S. NevadaBelow: 7%Near: 33%Above: 60%

NN

C. TexasBelow: 17%Near: 33%Above: 50%

MaineBelow: 33%Near: 33%Above: 33%

Seasonal

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Drought Outlook

Climate Monitoring Products

• Daily and monthly data, time series, and maps for various climate parameters and compilation of data on historical and current atmospheric and oceanic conditions– Primary modes of climate variability

(ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...)

– Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere)

– Storm Tracks and Blocking

– Monsoons

– Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal)

– Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US)

– Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)

Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 -1.4ºC

Niño 3.4 -1.5ºC

Niño 3 -0.8ºC

Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

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Drought Monitor

InteragencyPartners:•NWS/CPC•USDA/JAWF•NDMC •NCDC

Outside Experts:•USGS•State Climos•RCCs•NWS Hydros

Posted on the Internetevery Thursday morning

NewspapersTV Stations

Government officials Public

Climate Assessment Products

• Synthesis of current weather and climate information and forecasts; issued on a routine basis

– Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web)

– ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD)

– Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web)

– Seasonal Climate Summaries (web)

– Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web)

– Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin)

– Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics) Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection

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ENSO Diagnostics Discussion(State of Tropical Pacific)

• La Niña is expected to last at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11.

Hazards Assessment

Selected Other Climate Services at CPC

• Joint Agriculture Weather Facility• USDA – DOC partnership

– Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

– Briefings & Weather Summaries on global weather and crop conditions

• CPC International Desks• Professional development training to African

Meteorologists

• WMO partnership for regional and global activities

• Lead Famine Early Warning System Hazard/Benefit Assessments: Africa, Central America, Afghanistan

• Indian Ocean tropical cyclone monitoring

• Contribute to USAID Asian Flood Network

Training Coverage in Africa

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Applied Climate Research (Science and Service Integration)

La Niña and Seasonal Outlook

Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 -1.2ºC

Niño 3.4 -1.3ºC

Niño 3 -1.5ºC

Niño 1+2 -2.0ºC

• Since May 2010, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have dominated the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

• The most recent pattern of subsurface temperature anomalies is similar to those observed since mid September 2010.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (oC) in the Equatorial Pacific

Most recent pentad analysisLongitude

Time

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 November 2010).

• Nearly all models indicate that La Niña (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies -0.5°C or less) will persist at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011. Just over half of the models indicate La Niña will strengthen further and peak during the Northern Hemisphere early Winter 2010-11.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 14 November 2010

The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts La Niña conditions into Northern Hemisphere summer 2011.

The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when appropriate, the ENSO cycle.

Temperature Precipitation

U. S. Seasonal OutlooksDecember 2010 - February 2011

U. S. Drought Outlookvalid through February 2011

U.S. Temperature Departures (°C) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Dec.-Feb.

U.S. Precipitation Departures (mm) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Dec.-Feb.

U.S. Precipitation Departures (mm) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Mar. - May

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Temperature and Precipitation

Distribution

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php

MEAN

Extreme Events +

Extreme Events -

Realm of mostCommon events

# EVENTS

many few

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December – February Precipitation and Temperature Distribution

Box-Whisker Web Page:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php

Southern GA/Northern FL

Strong tilt toward warm and dry

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January – March Precipitation and Temperature Distribution

Box-Whisker Web Page:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php

Southern GA/Northern FL

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March-May Precipitation and Temperature Distribution

Box-Whisker Web Page:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php

Southern GA/Northern FL

Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Niña Winters

CPC Consolidation

Advancing Climate Prediction:The Climate Test Bed

• Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office• Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research

communities

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Mission• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the

climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services

Mission• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the

climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services

Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)

• Focus Areas– CFS Improvements– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems– Climate Forecast Products

• Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series• CPC/CTB - RISA Program• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program

Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)

• Focus Areas– CFS Improvements– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems– Climate Forecast Products

• Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series• CPC/CTB - RISA Program• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program

AOLOI

ProposalNCEP Collaborator

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h T

op

ics

AOLOI

ProposalNCEP Collaborator

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h T

op

ics