Overview and Status of the Emissions Data Analysis and Modeling Portions of the Virginia Mercury...

Overview and Status of the Emissions Data Analysis and Modeling Portions

of the Virginia Mercury Study

1st Technical Meeting

Richmond, VA31 May 2007

Presented by Sharon Douglas and Jay Haney

ICF International, San Rafael, CA

Presentation Topics

Study objectives Emissions data analysis

Project overview & work plan Mercury emissions review

Mercury deposition modeling Project overview & work plan Conceptual model of mercury

deposition for Virginia

Upcoming tasks/schedule

Study Objectives

Review the Virginia mercury point source inventory and update as needed

Prepare “conceptual description” of mercury deposition characteristics for Virginia

Conduct air quality modeling to simulate and quantify the contribution of regional and local emissions, and to provide information for TMDL assessments

Evaluate the effectiveness of future national and state control measures to meet water quality goals

Section A: Emissions Data Analysis

Task 1: Point source inventory review*

Task 2: Mercury inventory summary* Task 3: Literature search* Task 4: Emissions report Task 5: Data archive/transfer Task 6: Quality assurance plan* Task 7: Project management*More details to follow

Overview of Work Plan for Task 1: Point Source Inventory Review

Obtain 2002 and 2005 Virginia point source inventory

Review for accuracy and completeness

Update and fill in missing information needed for modeling

Overview of Work Plan for Task 2: Mercury Inventory Summary

Obtain latest (2002) national mercury inventory from EPA

Review and compare emissions for Virginia & neighboring states

Prepare future-year estimates for 2010, 2015, and 2018 for Virginia sources for modeling

Overview of Work Plan for Task 3: Literature Search

Conduct literature search related to: Mercury emissions and controls Mercury concentration and deposition

measurement studies Mercury deposition modeling techniques

Incorporate findings from literature search into technical approach for modeling tasks

Overview of Work Plan for Task 6: Quality Assurance Plan

Develop detailed quality assurance plan to address: Data acquisition Data quality assurance and processing

procedures Model application procedures Internal and external review procedures Communication and resolution of issues

Combined QAP for emissions data analysis & modeling

Status of Tasks to Date: Section A – Emissions Data Analysis

(Study commenced 12 February 2007)

Task 1: Point source inventory review (completed)

Task 2: Mercury inventory summary (ongoing) Task 3: Literature search (ongoing) Task 4: Emissions report (not started) Task 5: Data archive/transfer (not started) Task 6: Quality assurance plan (completed) Task 7: Project management (ongoing)

Summary of Emissions Review & Data Analysis Tasks

Obtained, reviewed & provided comments on Virginia point source inventory (updates received)

Obtained latest 2002 EPA NEI (Version 3) national mercury inventory

Compared NEI data with updated EPA Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) and latest Virginia inventory

Requested latest 2002 national criteria modeling emission inventory from EPA

Virginia Speciated Mercury Point Source Emissions

Mercury Emissions Comparisons for State of Virginia: 2002 VDEQ vs 2002 NEI V3

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0

VDEQ 2002 NEI 2002 VDEQ 2002 NEI 2002

Top 21 Total Point

Em

iss

ion

s (

tpy

)

HGP

HG2

HG0

Virginia Speciated Mercury Point Source Emissions

Mercury Point Source Emissions for State of Virginia

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0

VDEQ 2002 NEI 2002 CAMR 2001

Emis

sion

s (tp

y)

HGP

HG2

HG0

Regional Mercury Emissions

2002 NEI Version 3 - Mercury Emissions

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

VA KY NC TN WV VA KY NC TN WV VA KY NC TN WV

HG0 HG2 HGP

Mercury Species

Em

issi

ons

(tpy

)

Non-Point

Point

Regional Speciated Mercury Emissions

Comparisons of Mercury Emissions: 2001 CAMR (Revised) vs 2002 NEI V3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002

VA KY NC TN WV

State

Em

issi

ons

(tpy

)

HGP

HG2

HG0

Summary of Literature Review

Initial document search conducted by VA DEQ

Supplemental search focusing on recent (2000-2007) work covering: General/state-specific studies Mercury emissions and controls Mercury concentration & deposition

measurement studies Mercury deposition modeling techniques

> 85 reports, presentations, etc. included

Review of literature ongoing

Section B: Deposition Modeling

Task 1: Conceptual model* Task 2: Modeling protocol Task 3: Sensitivity analysis* Task 4: Performance evaluation Task 5: Modeling simulations* Task 6: Mercury deposition modeling report Task 7: Data archive/transfer Task 8: Quality assurance plan Task 9: Project management

*More details to follow

Task 1: Conceptual Model

Obtain local and regional mercury deposition & meteorological data for the period 2000-2005

Examine spatial & temporal variations in deposition and relationships with meteorology

Conduct statistical analysis using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) software to develop and evaluate relationships

Develop basis for processing & estimating data for model evaluation

Mercury Deposition Modeling Approach: Baseline Modeling

2001 Meteorological Inputs 2002 Criteria Pollutant & Mercury Emissions

Community Multiscale Air

Quality (CMAQ) Model, Version 4.6

AERMOD Gaussian Model

CMAQ Performance Evaluation

CMAQ Sensitivity Analysis

CMAQ Particle & Precursor Tagging Methodology (PPTM)

Identification of Sources with Significant Local

Contributions

AERMOD Sensitivity Analysis

Assessment of Global, National, Regional, and

Source-Specific Contributions

Mercury Deposition Modeling Approach: Future-Year

Modeling

2001 Meteorological InputsFuture-Year Criteria Pollutant & Mercury Emissions

2010, 2015 & 2018

CMAQ, Version 4.6 w/PPTM

AERMOD

Expected Future Changes in Local Contributions

Assessment of Future Control Measure

Effectiveness

Future-Year Projections

Future-Year Mercury

Contribution Analysis

Information for Water Quality Modeling, TMDL…

Proposed CMAQ Domain

36-km Grid

12-km Grid

Task 3: Sensitivity Analysis

Determine modeling system configuration for regional (CMAQ) and point source (AERMOD) models

Conduct CMAQ baseline and sensitivity simulations to examine the response of the modeling system to changes in the inputs (e.g., met inputs, emissions)

Conduct screening AERMOD runs to identify possible local source contributions

Task 4: Model Performance Evaluation

Focus on national, regional, and local scales

Examine wet deposition for mercury using all measured data and “estimated” data for VA sites

Task 5: Modeling Simulations

Conduct baseline modeling and use mercury “tagging” capabilities of CMAQ to quantify contributions from: Virginia sources Neighboring states All other states Canada/Mexico Global EGUs and non-EGUs

Task 5: Modeling Simulations (Continued)

Prepare future-year modeling inventories for 2010, 2015, and 2018

Conduct future-year modeling with CMAQ and AERMOD to assess expected changes in mercury deposition, including effects of future controls

Status of Tasks: Section B – Deposition Modeling

Task 1: Conceptual model (ongoing) Task 2: Modeling protocol (completed) Task 3: Sensitivity analysis (not started) Task 4: Performance evaluation ( ’’ ) Task 5: Modeling simulations ( ’’ ) Task 6: Mercury modeling report ( ’’ ) Task 7: Data archive/transfer ( ’’ ) Task 8: Quality assurance plan (completed) Task 9: Project management (ongoing)

Summary of Data Analysis/ Conceptual Model Task

Obtained and processed Hg deposition & met data for Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) sites in VA and several surrounding states

Analysis has focused on three VA sites and several additional sites in NC, PA, and TN with longer periods of record

Analyses completed to date Annual & quarterly variations in deposition Wind roses CART analyses (for 3 VA, 3 NC, 2 PA & 1 TN

sites) Met correlations & met adjusted trends

Conceptual model write-up in progress

MDN Analysis Sites

VA Sites

Neighboring sites with similar characteristics & longer periods of record

Data Availability for MDN Analysis Sites

MDN ID MDN Name Elev MDN Period

VA08 Culpeper 163 11/19/2002 - 6/30/2006

VA28 Shenandoah NP 1074 10/22/2002 - 6/30/2006

VA98 Harcum 13 12/17/2004 - 6/30/2006

NC08 Waccamaw State Park 10 7/01/1996 - 6/30/2006

NC42 Pettigrew State Park 2 7/01/1996 - 6/30/2006

TN11 Great Smoky Mountains NP 640 1/30/2002 - 6/30/2006

PA00 Arendtsville 269 11/14/2000 - 6/30/2006

PA13 Allegheny Portage RR NHS 739 1/9/1997 - 6/30/2006

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for VA Sites

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2003-Q1

2003-Q2

2003-Q3

2003-Q4

2004-Q1

2004-Q2

2004-Q3

2004-Q4

2005-Q1

2005-Q2

2005-Q3

2005-Q4

2006-Q1

2006-Q2

Year

Wet H

g D

ep

ositio

n (n

g/m

2)

VA08 VA28 VA98

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for NC Sites

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Year

Wet H

g D

ep

ositio

n (n

g/m

2)

NC08 NC42

NC42: Similar location & characteristics to Harcum

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for VA98 &

NC42 Sites

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2003-Q1

2003-Q2

2003-Q3

2003-Q4

2004-Q1

2004-Q2

2004-Q3

2004-Q4

2005-Q1

2005-Q2

2005-Q3

2005-Q4

2006-Q1

2006-Q2

Year

Wet H

g D

ep

ositio

n (n

g/m

2)

NC42 VA98

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for PA Sites

PA00: Similar characteristics to VA08; PA13: Similar characteristics to VA28

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Year

Wet H

g D

ep

ositio

n (n

g/m

2)

PA00 PA13


PA00 Sites

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2003-Q1

2003-Q2

2003-Q3

2003-Q4

2004-Q1

2004-Q2

2004-Q3

2004-Q4

2005-Q1

2005-Q2

2005-Q3

2005-Q4

2006-Q1

2006-Q2

Year

Wet H

g D

ep

ositio

n (n

g/m

2)

VA08 PA00


PA13 Sites

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2003-Q1

2003-Q2

2003-Q3

2003-Q4

2004-Q1

2004-Q2

2004-Q3

2004-Q4

2005-Q1

2005-Q2

2005-Q3

2005-Q4

2006-Q1

2006-Q2

Year

Wet H

g D

ep

ositio

n (n

g/m

2)

VA28 PA13

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for TN Site

TN11

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Year

Wet H

g D

ep

ositio

n

(ng

/m2)

TN11

Correlation of Hg Wet Deposition w/Selected Met

Parameters: VA

Correlation w Selected Met Parameters (All Qtrs): VA08

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Co

rre

lati

on

(R

)

Annual

Tmax Tmin RH WS SLP Rain #Days DT T850 WS85 WS70

Correlation w Selected Met Parameters (All Qtrs): VA28

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Co

rre

lati

on

(R

)

Annual

VA08

VA28

Correlation of Hg Wet Deposition w/Selected Met

Parameters: LP

Tmax Tmin RH WS SLP Rain #Days DT T850 WS85 WS70

PA13

NC42

Correlation w Selected Met Parameters (All Qtrs): PA13

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Co

rre

lati

on

(R

)

Annual

Correlation w Selected Met Parameters (Annual): NC42

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Co

rre

lati

on

(R

)

Annual

Comparison of Annual Hg Wet Deposition & Rainfall Amount

PA13

NC42

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Hg

Dep

(n

g/m

2), R

ain

(in

*100)

PA13" Rain

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Hg

Dep

(n

g/m

2);

Rai

n (

in*1

00)

NC42 Rain

CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREE (CART)

Statistical tool used to separate and group measurement periods into classification “bins” Bins are associated with a certain range of a

classification variable (e.g., deposition amount)

Classification is based on the value of other independent (e.g., meteorological) parameters

Provides information about the conditions that are associated with different ranges of Hg deposition, as well as the frequency of occurrence of different types of conditions

SIMPLE EXAMPLE OF A CART “TREE”

CART results take the form of an up-side-down classification “tree” - branches/splits and

independent variables (data) determine the binning

N = 52N = 20 N = 32TMAX > 20TMAX 20

RAIN 0.65WS 2 m/s RAIN > 0.65WS > 2 m/s

BIN #1CLASS = 2

Low/ModerateN=12

BIN #2CLASS = 1

LowN=8

BIN #3CLASS = 3ModerateN = 20

BIN #4CLASS = 4

HighN = 12

CART APPLICATION FOR MERCURY WET DEPOSITION

Time unit = MDN measurement period (typically one week)

Classification variable is daily average mercury deposition (wet)

5 classification categories defined by 0, 0-20, 20-50, 50-80 and >80 percentile values of measured deposition for each site

8 MDN sites within and just outside of VA Met parameters include temperature, pressure,

humidity, stability, wind, and rainfall (amount & # of days) for surface & upper levels

Categorical Comparisons for Hg Deposition for Culpeper, VA

0

5

10

15

20

25

Tmax (deg C) 850 mb T (deg C)

1 2 3 4 5

Selected CART Input Parameters for 5 Hg Deposition Categories

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

SWS (m/ s) Rain (in*10)

1 2 3 4 5

0

90

180

270

360

SWD (deg)

1 2 3 4 5

0

20

40

60

80

100

RH (%) % R Days

1 2 3 4 5

Categorical Comparisons for Hg Deposition for Shenandoah NP,

VA

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


1 2 3 4 5


0

1

2

3

4

5

6


1 2 3 4 5

0

90

180

270

360

SWD (deg)

1 2 3 4 5

0

20

40

60

80

100

RH (%) % R Days

1 2 3 4 5

Categorical Comparisons for Hg Deposition for Harcum, VA

0

5

10

15

20

25


1 2 3 4 5


0

1

2

3

4

5

6


1 2 3 4 5

0

90

180

270

360

SWD (deg)

1 2 3 4 5

0

20

40

60

80

100

RH (%) % R Days

1 2 3 4 5

CART RESULTS FORCULPEPER, VA

1 2 3 4 5

1 26 0 1 1 0

2 3 25 1 2 0

3 1 5 37 3 1

4 2 1 6 35 4

5 0 0 2 1 27

CART

Obs

81% of “weekly” periods correctly classified90% of high deposition (Category 5) periods correctly classified

CART RESULTS FORSHENANDOAH NP, VA

1 2 3 4 5

1 20 0 0 0 0

2 2 24 4 1 0

3 2 3 29 13 2

4 0 0 2 43 3

5 0 0 0 6 26

CART

Obs


CART RESULTS FORHARCUM, VA

1 2 3 4 5

1 9 0 1 0 0

2 0 7 2 4 0

3 0 0 18 1 0

4 0 1 4 14 0

5 0 0 0 1 13

CART

Obs


Cart Parameter Importance for Hg Deposition: Culpeper, VA

VA08

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

% recirc days (aloft)

700 mb WD (deg)

850 mb WD (deg)

700 mb WS (ms-1)

850 mb WS (ms-1)

900 mb DT (AM) (°C)

850 mb T (AM) (°C)

% rain days

Rain (in)

SLP (mb)

% recirc days (sfc)

Sfc WD (deg)

Sfc WS (ms-1)

RH (%)

Min sfc T (°C)

Max sfc T (°C)

Scale represents relative importance

Cart Parameter Importance for Hg Deposition: Shenandoah NP,

VA


VA28

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


700 mb WD (deg)

850 mb WD (deg)

700 mb WS (ms-1)

850 mb WS (ms-1)

900 mb DT (AM) (°C)

850 mb T (AM) (°C)

% rain days

Rain (in)

SLP (mb)

% recirc days (sfc)

Sfc WD (deg)

Sfc WS (ms-1)

RH (%)

Min sfc T (°C)

Max sfc T (°C)

Cart Parameter Importance for Hg Deposition: Harcum, VA


VA98

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


700 mb WD (deg)

850 mb WD (deg)

700 mb WS (ms-1)

850 mb WS (ms-1)

900 mb DT (AM) (°C)

850 mb T (AM) (°C)

% rain days

Rain (in)

SLP (mb)

% recirc days (sfc)

Sfc WD (deg)

Sfc WS (ms-1)

RH (%)

Min sfc T (°C)

Max sfc T (°C)

CART-Based Meteorologically Adjusted Trends

-- Deposition amounts adjusted based on frequency of occurrence of meteorological conditions-- Allow us to look at possible trends

Culpeper, VA (VA08)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2003 2004 2005

Year

Wet

Hg

Dep

osi

tio

n (

ng

/m2)

Obs

MetAdj

Emissions Trends (TRI Data)

Air Emissions of Mercury and Mercury Compunds from TRI Data Base - U.S.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Hg

Em

issi

on

s (t

py)

Air Emissions of Mercury and Mercury Compunds from TRI Data Base - State of Virginia

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Hg

Em

issi

on

s (t

py)

CART-Based Meteorologically Adjusted Trends w/Emissions

VA emissions are tpy *1000U.S. emissions are tpy *50

Culpeper, VA (VA08)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2003 2004 2005

Year

Hg

Dep

(ng

/m2);

Em

iss (tp

y*)

Obs MetAdj Emiss (VA) Emiss (US)



Shenandoah NP, VA (VA28)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2003 2004 2005

Year

Hg

Dep

(ng

/m2);

Em

iss (tp

y*)




Arendtsville, PA (PA00)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Hg

Dep

(ng

/m2);

Em

iss (tp

y*)




Allegheny RR NHS, PA (PA13)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Hg

Dep

(ng

/m2);

Em

iss (tp

y*)




Pettigrew SP, NC (NC42)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Hg

Dep

(ng

/m2);

Em

iss (tp

y*)


REMSAD Mercury Tagging Results: VA08

Emissions vs. IC/BC Contributions Contribution by Wet & Dry Deposition (kg/ha) Emissions Contribution by Region

Neighboring States: MD, DC, NC, WV, KY & TN

Contributions from Virginia Sources Contributions from Neighboring State Sources

The "Collective Sources" tag for each state includes all point and area sources in the state that are not individually tagged.

Emissions IC/BCs0

2

4

6

8

10

Overall Emissions

Wet Dry

Virginia Neighboring states

Other U.S. Canada & Mexico

Sources outside Virginia

VA Collective Sources

VA Chesterfield Pwr Stn

VA NASA Steam Gen

VA Jewel Coke Co

VA Chesapeake EnergyCtr

Other sources withinVirginia

Sources in Virginia andnon-neighboring states

WV Mt. Storm PowerStation

WV Collective Utilities

NC Collective Sources

NC Roxboro Pwr Stn

MD Collective Sources

Other sources within theneighboring states






Emissions IC/BCs0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Overall Emissions

Wet Dry






VA NASA Steam Gen

VA Jewel Coke Co




WV Mt. Storm PowerStation

WV Collective Utilities

NC Roxboro Pwr Stn


WV John E Amos







Emissions IC/BCs0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Overall Emissions

Wet Dry





VA NASA Steam Gen



VA Jewel Coke Co




NC Roxboro Pwr Stn

MD Morgantown PwrStn

MD Collective Sources

MD Chalk Point


Conceptual Model Summary

Hg deposition characteristics for longer-term are similar to those for VA sites

Wet deposition has a seasonal component and, as expected, is correlated with rainfall

Rainfall amount does not fully explain, however, the variations in deposition (there are other influences)

Conceptual Model Summary (Continued)

Hg deposition and emissions trends for 2000-2005 are mostly flat slight downward tendency for VA sites slight upward tendency for surrounding

sites in the later years

Prior modeling indicates the Hg deposition in VA is a combined result of wet & dry deposition from local, regional, national & global sources

Upcoming Work Section A tasks

Complete inventory update & summary Estimate future year emissions Complete literature review Prepare emissions summary report

Section B tasks Complete conceptual description Obtain/prepare 2002 criteria emissions inventory Conduct CMAQ & AERMOD performance evaluation

Next status meeting: September?

Virginia Mercury Study Schedule

Section A: Emissions Data Analysis

Task 1: Point Source Inventory Review

Task 2: Mercury Inventory Summary

Task 3: Literature Search

Task 4: Emissions Report

Task 5: Data Archival/Transfer

Task 6: Quality Assurance Plan

Task 7: Project Management

Section B: Deposition Modeling

Task 1: Conceptual Model

Task 2: Modeling Protocol

Task 3: Sensitivity Analysis

Task 4: Performance Evaluation

Task 5: Modeling Simulations

Task 6: Modeling Report

Task 7: Data Archival/Transfer

Task 8: Quality Assurance Plan

Task 9: Project Management

Task M A M A J J

M1

F

M3 M2 M4

F

S O N D J F M A

D

2007 2008

D

D

D D

D

D

D

F

F

Additional Technical Slides

Pairings of Hg Deposition & Met Sites

CART MDN ID MDN Name Elev MDN Period SFC/UA Site ID WBAN Name Elev Distance(km)

VA08 Culpeper 163 11/19/2002 - SFC 93736 Charlottesville, VA 196 44.16/30/2006 UA 93734 STERLING(WASH DULLES) 82.9

VA28 Shenandoah NP 1074 10/22/2002 - SFC SHN418 Shenandoah NP - Big Meadows 1073 0.16/30/2006 UA 93734 STERLING(WASH DULLES) 97.9

VA98 Harcum 13 12/17/2004 - SFC 13750 NORFOLK NAS, VA 10 69.16/30/2006 UA 93739 WALLOPS ISLAND 99.4

UA 93734 STERLING(WASH DULLES) 182.1

NC08 Waccamaw State Park 10 7/01/1996 - SFC 13748 WILMINGTON, NC 10 51.66/30/2006 UA 93768 MOREHEAD CITY/NEWPORT 161.2

NC42 Pettigrew State Park 2 7/01/1996 - SFC 13786 ELIZABETH CITY, NC 4 66.06/30/2006 UA 93768 MOREHEAD CITY/NEWPORT 161.2

TN11 Great Smoky Mountains NP 640 1/30/2002 - SFC GRS420 Great Smoky NP - Look Rock 793 32.06/30/2006 UA 53829 ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG 329.7

PA00 Arendtsville 269 11/14/2000 - SFC ARE128 Arendtsville 269 0.06/30/2006 UA 93734 STERLING(WASH DULLES) 105.9

PA13 Allegheny Portage RR NHS 739 1/9/1997 - SFC 14736 ALTOONA, PA 450 27.16/30/2006 UA 93734 STERLING(WASH DULLES) 189.5

Overview and Status of the Emissions Data Analysis and Modeling Portions of the Virginia Mercury...

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