Overpopulation Vs. Global Environment How much is too much? With the world’s population about to cross 7 billion, we conduct a comprehensive study of the present-day ecosystems to determine the extent of damage inflicted on the natural resources and see if we have already crossed the threshold limits or is there still a key to achieve stability between population and environment. Word count: 7247

Harshal Desai Raffles Design Institute

2/17/2011

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... 1

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 3

What is overpopulation? ........................................................................................................................ 5

Current state of the Planet ..................................................................................................................... 8

The link between population and environment ................................................................................... 11

Population Trends ................................................................................................................................. 13

Growth Rate .................................................................................................................................. 13

Fertility and Mortality Rates ......................................................................................................... 14

Population Projections .................................................................................................................. 16

Population Composition ............................................................................................................... 18

Environmental impacts on human population ............................................................................. 19

Carrying Capacity .......................................................................................................................... 20

Natural Resources And WASTE production .......................................................................................... 22

Non-Renewable resources ............................................................................................................ 22

Renewable Resources ................................................................................................................... 23

Current State of the Ecosystems ........................................................................................................... 32

Biodiversity ................................................................................................................................... 32

Deforestation ................................................................................................................................ 36

Marine Life .................................................................................................................................... 37

Climate Change ............................................................................................................................. 39

SOLUTIONS ............................................................................................................................................ 41

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Population Control ........................................................................................................................ 41

Rate of consumption ..................................................................................................................... 42

CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................................... 43

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................... 44

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INTRODUCTION

The human population has undergone several phases of growth since the dawn of civilization. From

barely a few thousand people around 2,000,000 years ago, we crossed the 1 billion mark around

1800 and over 6 billion in the year 2000, making us one of the most successful species in the history

of life on this planet.

Despite humanity’s triumph in nourishing the snowballing global population, the planet’s natural

resources on which all life heavily depends upon – fresh drinking water, fertile land for agriculture,

fisheries and forests etc. are getting rapidly depleted. Present population predictions propose the

possibility that the global population could peak quicker than indicated earlier by the United Nations

Population Division. With the current exponential rise, global population is causing devastating

effects on the natural environment.

Figure 1: Population v/s Natural Resources (Source: GreenPeace)i

i http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/about/deep-green/deep-green-september-2008/ Image Retrieved 8

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The relationship between population and environmental issues are exceptionally intricate. When

any one of the ecosystem is thrown off balance, it can set off a chain of events that can create

widespread damage over a vast area.

The purpose of this report is to study and explain the bond between population and environment

with the help of various information graphics such as maps and charts to illustrate the current state

of the world. After that we will focus on specific resources in detail, taking in account their rapid

exhaustion on a global scale. Lastly, this report contains a few case study analyses that look at

population-environment associations in particular regions of the world.

Listing out all the characteristics of the population-environment bond is nearly impossible in a single

report. Nevertheless, by focusing on present-day research and statistics as well as using information

graphics in terms of maps, this report tries to express a logical credible solution to one of the most

significant questions about our own survival in the future.

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WHAT IS OVERPOPULATION?

Overpopulation is a state when a group of people, or any living organisms for that matter, surpass

the natural load sustainability of its environment’s resources. But overpopulation doesn’t only

consider the size and volume of the number of people. It is also calculated by the ratio of people to

the amount of resources available and also takes into account the methods by which these natural

resources are consumed and distributed through the populace.

Figure 2: World Population Chart (Data Source: United Nations Population Division)ii

Primary causes for overpopulation are an exponential rise in the birth rate and steady decline in

mortality rates due to improvements in the field of medicine. These days it is probable for sparsely

populated zones to be overpopulated, as the region in question might have insufficient or non-

ii http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbilpart1.pdf

Statistic Data Retrieved 8th

February, 2011

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1 1,000 1,500 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,010 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200

Global population growth rate

WorldPopulation

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existent resources to sustain human life. Common resources to be considered when calculating if an

area is overpopulated includes the amount of clean water and air available, adequate supply of food,

strong housing, quick access to health care, proper schooling, functional sewage management and

water disposal, energy consumption and availability of land to name a few. (Scientific American,

2009)1

In these modern times, we often hear people say that overpopulation is not a big deal, and that this

planet has enough space to occupy everyone. While it is mathematically possible to fit every person

on the planet into a country like United States, given each person has only around 1500 cubic meter

of space for themselves. It is possible, but would get extremely crowded.

We have to consider the early warning signs of such a lifestyle before it become the only option.

Even right now you can see people complaining about traffic on the streets, shortage of basic

supplies, energy and water consumption being forced to reduce steadily, and having difficulty

accessing healthcare.

Cej, a comic artist, had described these issues in one of his comic series quite elegantly, as shown in

figure 3 below.

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Figure 3 : Warning signs of overpopulation iii

With such a huge amount of pressure exerted on the natural resources, once they are depleted it

will result in a rapid decline of our quality of life and eventually lead to our own demise.

iii http://www.armzrace.com/cej/CannonFodder/Overpopulation.jpg Retrieved 28

th January, 2011

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CURRENT STATE OF THE PLANET

The success of our rapid growth and development has come at a hefty cost to the environment. Our

current rate of consumption threatens the vital resources that we heavily depend upon.

Right now, the impact we have on the planet in terms of our environmental ‘footprint’ overpowers

the influence of all other life combined.

Approximately half of the land on the planet is being used by humans today. Roughly 11 percent of

it goes into farming, 26 percent for pastures and the rest for basic housing, services, transportation

etc.

Only around 10% of water is drinkable on the planet. This is the earth’s freshwater supply. We are

already using more than half of this precious resource, diverting the flow of almost all the major

rivers in the world as per our whim and thus, causing major modifications to the ecology of existing

lakes and creeks.

The vast oceans cover seven tenth of the earth’s surface, and we only use about 8% of it for fishing.

Yet marine fisheries are catching fish in bulk, causing massive damage to the fragile underwater

ecosystem. Just within this century alone, humans have destroyed half of the coastal mangroves and

permanently damaged 10% of the coral reefs worldwide.

With the urban population burning fossil fuels at alarming rates and the rural population heavily

dependent on nitrogen based fertilizers, the natural cycles of carbon and nitrogen have been

doubled in the last decade. In fact, we produce nearly 50% more nitrogen than all other natural

sources combined. This excess results in decay of forests and soil on land, and gives birth to toxic

algae in the oceans, creating what we call “dead zones” on both areas where plant life and marine

life cannot thrive.

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All these issues combined cause an incalculable effect on the planet’s biodiversity. Extinction rates of

plants and animals have risen swiftly and exponentially, and for the lucky ones who aren’t extinct

yet, have been compelled to either evolve or adapt to our needs. (Harrison, Paul and Pearce, Fred.

2000)2

All this activity is dependent on our increasing population numbers, our rate of consumption of the

natural resources, and the amount of pollutants we generate in the process. Below are two maps

depicting how quickly human population densities have grown over the course of just three

centuries.

Figure 4: Population Density from 1700-2000(Source: AAAS)iv

iv http://atlas.aaas.org/overview/scale_graphics.php

Image retrieved 8th

February, 2011.

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Despite our increased strain on earth’s resources, it is still not meeting our requirements.

The amount of people living in areas where cultivated land is dangerously scarce is said to increase

to around 1.04 billion by 2025. Also, currently about two billion people are living in areas with less

than 0.1 hectare of forest land. Based on the recent deforestation trends, nearly 2/3 of the world’s

forests will be wiped out by 2025

Currently, over 500 million people have limited access to drinkable water. Judging by the growing

numbers, by 2025, it’s estimated over 2 billion people will suffer from water shortage.

Most of the world’s fisheries are already being exerted to their maximum capacity, fully exploiting

the ocean’s resources. But while the number of individual fishermen is increasing, the amount of fish

is steadily decreasing. This will not only cause ecological damage to oceans, but also disrupt the lives

of the poor who rely on fish as their primary source for protein. (Engelman, et al., 2000)3

For the past three centuries, we have been transforming ecosystems faster than we can adapt to the

changes and find alternative solutions. When it comes to the environment, every single thing is

interconnected, a delicate intricate web of connections between each unique ecosystem.

Thus, there is a vital requirement to be completely alert about the changes we are causing in the

environment. We must comprehend the ways in which population and consumption of resources

impact the globe, and find solutions from the studies to achieve the balance once again, between

population and environment.

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THE LINK BETWEEN POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT

There are many factors to consider when studying the link between population and its natural

environment. A deep knowledge of demography, economics, social and environmental sciences,

family planning methods etc. are just few of the common factors.

A detailed study must include all factors and find their significance may vary at different times and in

different places. In every human interaction with the environment, there are three major elements

in play. They can be linked in the popular equation introduced by Ehrlich and Holdren:

I = P x A x T, or

Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology 4

Basically, the impact on environment is judged by the total population of the area in question, the

consumption of resources per person, and the amount of resources needed.

Figure 5 : The limits to growthv

v Meadows, Dennis et al., The limits to growth, Washington DC, 1972.

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Ehrlich used this formula to prove that population growth is the dominant factor in environmental

damage. However, in reality there are much more complicated factors. For example, the increased

need of urbanized area in many parts of Africa led to deforestation. There was a slight rise in

agriculture, but in contrast, there was a massive increase in CFC (Chlorofluorocarbons) due to the

introduction of new technologies.

Of course, the sensitivity of the environment is also to be taken into account, and it’s generally

random, making it difficult to predict the value accurately. Resources like forests, water, and fish

give maximum yield when harvested only until the point where they are unable to rejuvenate

themselves. The natural filters such as soils, rivers, lakes, oceans and atmosphere, have boundary

lines for several impurities, beyond which significant aspects of their efficiency will degrade.

There are moments where the environment successfully evolves when need for human resources

increase, and at other times, it may change suddenly if pressures outgrow certain limitations.

Erosion strips the soil close to bedrock, yields fall abruptly. Global warming melts the polar icecaps,

ocean currents shift directions, creating erratic weather conditions.

However, the factors mentioned in the IPAT model aren’t the only ones that affect the environment.

Reality is much more complex. For example, population change is determined by fertility rate,

mortality rate and migration patterns. Each of these is affected by various other factors, like status

and education of women, access to family planning, good healthcare, financial status, opportunities

of migration. This complexity can be calculated using a systems approach, which doesn’t focus on

just a single factor but adapts many potential factors. Also, it doesn’t just see the human impact on

environment, but also checks on the environmental impact on human welfare. But in general, the

interactions and uncertainties when reviewing total ecosystems are so random that it’s virtually

impossible to predict them completely. All that we can do is generating “what if” scenarios that

depict the possible consequences of the trends.

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POPULATION TRENDS

When people consider the human impact caused by overpopulation on the environment, they think

in terms of total world population and the rate of growth.

While these elements are certainly significant, they are just two of the factors we have to consider

while gauging the environmental impact. Population density and distribution, population

composition in terms of age, etc. also need to be taken into consideration. Below are some of the

key trends we must take into account while studying world population

Growth Rate

The total number of people on the planet has put a lot of stress on the environment. Studies suggest

that the population of the entire world was only around 300 million during the first century. Since

then, the swift acceleration of population numbers can be seen dramatically in the time it took to

reach 1 billion in 1804, and since then we have been in overdrive crossing 6 billion in 1999, only two

centuries apart.

The faster the growth rate, the quicker we must be able to adapt to the changes we cause in the

environment. Human population has grown in a flattened S shaped curve, rising very slowly at first,

accelerating quickly into a steep slope until it suddenly slows down and the curve begins to level out

for a few decades.

We can observe that during the periods where the curve was beginning to level out, where few of

the worst decades of humanity. The dark ages for example, and both World Wars fell under this

category.

The population growth also varies according to the region. Urban population has been on an

exponential rise within the last thirty year and is said to keep increasing that way, whereas the rural

population is suffering a slow decline as shown in the graph below.

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Figure 6 : World Population Prospectsvi

With more urbanization there is a steady decrease of land reserved for agricultural purposes. Given

the current trends the urban population is estimated to cross 5 billion by 2030, which, in comparison

to the rural population, is more than double its size.

Fertility and Mortality Rates

The rise in human population is simply because death rates are growing more unbalanced with birth

rates. The advancements in modern medicine, and uncontaminated water, and a good supply of

food in most areas of the world boosted child development and mortality rates. The total fertility

rate (TFR) calculates the number of children women have over a lifetime. It’s stated that a TFR

should be 2.1 to maintain population stability. Between the periods of 1995-2000, over 61 countries

fell BELOW this optimum level. These countries currently hold 44% of the world’s population.

For instance, developing countries like Korea (1.6) and Cuba (1.55) have a much lower fertility rate

than United States. Certain countries have extremely low fertility rates like Spain, which is at 1.15,

the lowest in Europe.

vi UNPD, World Population Prospects, 1999

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Mortality too plays a certain role. In most regions the mortality rate is declining constantly providing

and increase to the average life expectancy of a human being. However, in certain countries where

plague, disease and famine are common, mortality continues to rise steadily.

A classic example would be Africa, where AIDS has severely affected the life expectancy of the

people who reside there. In certain parts, like Botswana, one out of every four adults is statistically

infected with AIDS, cutting the life expectancy to 41 years at best. Due to this, by 2020, the

population of Botswana will have reduced by 30%, simply because of disease.

Figure 7 : UNPD Comparison of Fertility ratesvii

As seen from the chart above, several regions have observed sharp regressions in total fertility rates

owing to a large amount of effort to ensure access to family planning products along with

improvements in healthcare and female education. In the meantime other countries in the same

region which did not make similar struggles have witnessed their fertility steadily increasing.

Many owe it to cultural factors, for instance, Iran’s fertility rate fell from 6.8 to 2.8 in just 20 years

under the Islamic management. It’s assumed that fertility rates increase in areas with high poverty.

vii

UNPD, World Population Prospects, 1999

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That’s not always the case as seen in case of Bangladesh which reduced its TFR to 3.1, while illiteracy

still remained at an all-time high.

This is simply because of better access to healthcare and a wide range of family planning products

easily available to the public. You can see the poor results in the countries closest to them such as

Iraq and Pakistan, where fertility rates aren’t dropping quickly. (UNPD)5

Population Projections

The United Nations Population Division is known for its constant accurate predictions since the early

nineteen fifties. However with these sudden growth spurts, the UNPD has to constantly revise their

formula and keep lowering their projected dates.

On their current medium projection charts, they discovered that the population from developed

countries will drop from 20% to 13% by 2050. India will quickly overtake china as the world’s most

populated country between the periods 2012-2015. Africa will have the fastest growth rate,

increasing from 8 million people in 2000 to over 2 billion people in 2050.

Of course, these predictions rely heavily on how the fertility rates continue in the future, and that

has always remained uncertain. Many regions have shown a rapid decline in fertility rates

As stated by John Bongaarts,

“A very low fertility rate may be at least in part due to birth deferment, and fertility may rise

again. However, so many countries now have below-replacement fertility, in so many culture

areas, in so many different stages of the economic cycle that demographers are beginning to

believe it may be more than a temporary blip. Surveys in these countries still show that

people typically want to have two children, but many pressures prevent them from achieving

their goals. “ 6

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Figure 8 : UNPD World Population Projections till 2050viii

According to the UNPD, the regions showing low fertility rates will expect a sharp increase by 40%

whereas regions where the TFR is above 2.1 will show a decline.

However, currently this can all be considered as speculation. As of 2010, various new data is being

computed and it shows certain regions might have a stable fertility rate for at least another fifty

years. Of course, a few theories must be made else it’s impossible to predict the outcome.

viii

UNPD, World Population Projections to 2050, 1998.

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Population Composition

Population composition refers to the age, sex, marital status etc. of a specific region. It plays a

valuable role in the effects of consumption on the natural environment.

Figure 9 : Population composition ix

The most significant factor while taking population composition into account is age. Age

distributions statistics could be shown as a building, with each floor signifying a five year group, and

the width could represent the amount of people within that group.

Countries, specially developing regions where the total fertility rate is very high, this building

resembles a pyramid, with its ‘wide floors’ representing the younger generations and as you go

higher, the amount of people in the age group keeps decreasing lower and lower.

ix U.S. Bureau of Census

http://www.census.gov/ Retrieved 15th

February, 2011

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In developed regions however, the fertility rates have declined, so the building is shaped more like a

pear, with more people residing in the middle age

If the trend continues, there will soon be an increase within the elderly age group.

The total world population may be projected to increase by 40% within 2050, but the number of

people over the age of 60 by that year will have increased by nearly 230%. (UNPD) 7

This would have a serious concern towards the environment. Statistics have shown that people over

60 consume much more resources than people less than 15 years of age. This will create an

unbalance in the consumption of the natural resources. Also, the increased burden of having to

support the region’s ageing population compared to the shortage of youngsters may stunt economic

development of the country.

Environmental impacts on human population

Whatever debilitating alterations we make on the environment helped reduce mortality rates and

increase population growth. However, these changes are slowly giving a boost to mortality rates

worldwide.

For example, fertilizers are used to improve crop yield and thus provide more nutrition worldwide

and in turn, lower mortality rates. However, the nitrogen in those fertilizers is causing severe

environmental degradation caused due to frequent use and it’s resulting in a decline in the quality of

drinking water, thereby increasing the mortality rate.

At first, fossil fuels helped gain a quick financial stability of a region, which allowed better lifestyle,

boosting population growth and reducing mortality. However, with the excess use giving out carbon

dioxide and eating up the ozone layer, it is eventually increasing mortality rates by enlarging the

planet to diseases that spread out in warmer climates, not to mention the steady rise in

temperatures, massive storms and rising sea levels. Each of these plays a factor in slashing down

excess population in large numbers. It can be considered as nature’s way of balancing out the scales.

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Carrying Capacity

“Carrying capacity refers to the number of individuals who can be supported in a given area

within natural resource limits, and without degrading the natural social, cultural and

economic environment for present and future generations” (GDRC.org) 8

Over the decades there have been many attempts to calculate the carrying capacity of the planet.

The earliest estimates were calculated during the early 18th century with the number being around

12 billion.

Just the sheer number of people doesn’t make a significant modification to the environment; it’s

paired with the speed at which resources are depleted and waste is produced. We need to calculate

and find out the maximum sustainable yield a resource can produce before it will degrade, deplete

or become too unstable. This calculation is required for many items for example, fish, or CO2

emissions. However, it is virtually impossible to calculate all these different values on a combined

global scale.

As shown in the graph in Figure 9, current studies have shown that the ideal carrying capacity of the

planet is a little over 3 billion people. That would maintain the balance between population and

environment by giving sufficient amount of time for nature to replenish the natural resources that

are consumed by us. However, by overshooting the target up to 6.9 billion and rising, the resources

are getting depleted rapidly and the ideal carrying capacity decreases further as more and more

natural resources diminish or die out entirely.

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Figure 10 : Earth's Carrying Capacity (8020vision) x

But, since it is extremely difficult to calculate the tolerance limits of every resource on a global scale,

it is nearly impossible to predict how the population capacity will fluctuate.

Considering the level of complexity of the bonds between population and environment, trying to

estimate the planet’s carrying capacity is a little pointless. To make a clear and accurate depiction,

we just have to individually assess each resource and their waste output, and estimate the impact

they are having with earth’s ecosystem.

x http://8020vision.com/2010/06/21/the-real-population-problem/

Retrieved 16th

February, 2011

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NATURAL RESOURCES AND WASTE PRODUCTION

Overpopulation affects the environment by two major human factors. First, the amount of

resources we use on a global scale. Often we tear down forests, clearing entire landscapes and

forcing the local animal species to move out of their natural habitat, simply for our own benefit. We

consume resources by catching fish, drilling in mines for precious minerals, burrowing the ground for

oil etc.

There are two main types of resources, ones that are renewable, like water or the fish that can be

naturally restocked; and non-renewable resources such as oils and minerals that are limited and will

not be easily restocked. It took millions of years to create these resources and would take the same

amount of time if they are completely depleted.

The second factor is the amount of waste we dispose in the environment. This doesn’t just include

solid waste like the soda cans or plastic bags that people discard carelessly. Every single item, from

solid waste to toxic liquids and noxious gases given off during the process of refining the raw

materials used in factories, is considered waste material. These may seem small individually, but on

a global scale, they are affecting the water, ozone, and climate.

Non-Renewable resources

Just by its very name we understand that these particular types of resources are limited in supply

and if used repeatedly and relentlessly, they will run out very quickly. When such shortages occur,

the prices rise, creating a need to explore for alternative substitutes that are more cost-effective and

easy to recycle.

For example, by-products of natural gas covered only 24 years of production in 1989, but since gas

prices began to increase due to shortage of resource, there was a need to find a better recycling

system and by 1198, the time period had grown up to 60 years. (AAAS) 9

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The best way to find out about a shortage of any natural resource is to check the price at which the

product is being sold. The more shortage of resources, the greater their selling price.

Thankfully, for now there hasn’t been any debilitating shortage of any key non-renewable resource.

However with the ever-increasing demand for these resources there is no reason to be certain this

luck will continue for long.

Renewable Resources

Strangely enough, renewable resources are at a greater risk of depletion than the non-renewable

ones. Drinkable water, nutrient rich soil, or fish populations etc. have been much more vulnerable in

terms of human consumption.

Technically, renewable resources should be able to replenish themselves. But this process of

rejuvenation doesn’t occur since we are exploiting them much quicker than they can heal. The most

substantial resources among these, the ones we require for basic existence: Land, Food, and Water;

have all been under constant attack due to overpopulation.

Food and land

Thomas Malthus, a British Scholar, was once asked a question whether agricultural production could

keep up with the potential human population growth? Malthus’ replied it was impossible and stated

that agricultural production was increasing on an arithmetic scale (e.g. 4 + 4 + 4 = 12) whereas

population grew on an exponential scale (e.g. 4 x 4 x 4 = 64) (T.R. Malthus) 10

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Figure 11 : Malthus Theory of Population growth xi

In many regions, the area of agricultural land per person has been slowly declining, especially

developing countries where population growth is accelerating at a rapid rate.

The highest loss was in Africa, where they had only 0.5 hectares of farmland per person to begin

with, but due to destruction of soil and deforestation, the number has dropped to 0.25. With the

current trend, according to the UNPD’s population prediction statistics, Africa will barely have 0.1

hectares of farmland per person within the next 20 years.

There will still be plenty of land. It is just not usable due to severe nitrate poisoning of the soil,

creating massive dead zones where no plant can grow or survive. (FAOSTAT) 11

Still, the global agriculture and farming industry has been successful (so far) in generating enough

food to sustain the growing requirements of the current population, at the cost of damage to the

natural ecosystems. Constant use of fertilizers has not only caused harm on land, but also to the

xi Graph created with reference to Malthus’ theory.

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Population growth

Agricultural growth

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water. With the forest area cleared to make more space for farms, there’s been vital loss of

biodiversity, wildlife etc.

In 1998, Oldeman conducted a report whereby he stated,

“By 1990 soils had degraded on 38 % of the world's cropland, 21 % of pasture and 18 % of

forests. Productivity has declined significantly on 16 % of agricultural land in developing

countries. By 1998, cropland productivity dropped 12.7 % lower than it would have been

without human-induced soil degradation.” (Oldeman) 12

Figure 12: Area of land consumption in the last 300 years (UNEP) xii

If the current trends follow, the demand for more food will keep increasing, resulting in

consumption of a wider area of land used for agriculture, and even more powerful fertilizers to

harvest a better yield. These fertilizers will give a good short term growth spurt in agriculture

production but will severely damage the chemical composition of the soil, eventually rendering the

area into another “dead zone”.

xii

Data Source: Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO-4), UNEP http://www.flickr.com/photos/woonder/4469254692/in/photostream/ Retrieved 28

th January 2011.

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Fresh water

Planet earth has ample amounts of water present on the surface. However, in terms of usable water,

only 3% is useful. That means 97% of the water on the planet is too salty to drink or use in

agriculture.

This 3% freshwater can be found in some lakes and rivers across the globe. Most areas near the

equator have a good surplus of this pure water. Though certain areas experience periodic droughts

or just lack a constant flow of drinking water, for example, many parts of South Africa.

Apart from food, water is the most vital resource for basic survival, and in any region, if it’s

overpopulated, there needs to be a concern for a pure water supply.

Studies indicate that an average person requires at least 1700 cubic meters of fresh water per year.

If this volume isn’t met, the country is considered to undergo water crisis, and should the problem

spread, there might be a need to reuse waste water or manage and distribute water for short

periods of time during the day.

But, if the water supply level drops to less than a 1000 cubic meter per person, the area is

considered in a state of water scarcity and the people will have to sacrifice their farming, industrial,

and personal usage to survive.

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Figure 13: Water Stress and Scarcity Projections xiii

By 1995, research indicated around 450 million people suffering from water stress, causing severe

issues with growth and expansion of their region.

There is an increasing strain between neighbouring countries who currently share the same water

sources, like India and Bangladesh, Jordan and Israel etc. If this trend carries on, these countries face

severe water crisis within the next 50 years. (Gardner-Outlaw and Engelman) 13

xiii

Data from Gardner-Outlaw and Engelman, Sustaining Water, Easing Scarcity, Population Action International, 1997.

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Figure 14 : Global Water Footprint (US Infrastructure) xiv

The water footprint is an indicator of water use that looks at both direct and indirect water use of a

consumer or producer. The water footprint of an individual, community or business is defined as the

total volume of freshwater that is used to produce the goods and services consumed by the

individual or community or produced by the business, as described by WaterFootPrint.org.

xiv

http://www.americainfra.com/news/global-water-shortage/ Retrieved 29th

January, 2011

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Bearing that in mind, studies concluded that over 60% of the world’s population is currently

suffering water shortage, with United States consuming the largest amount of water each year, an

equivalent of 2483m whereas countries which heavily depend on others to import their water

supply, like Kuwait, are at greatest risk.

If these trends continue, the regions lacking freshwater will steadily increase until the point where

we might have to see a time when there is war over water.

(Dan jones, reporter America Infrastructure) 14

Waste

One of the most persistent burdens to the environment is caused by the amount of waste we

generate.

As quoted

“In the process of making the end products we actually use, our machines dig up, churn over,

swallow up and spew out several thousand tons of material. One study found that some 93 %

of materials used in production do not end up in saleable products but in waste, while 80 %

of products are discarded after a single use” (AAAS) 15

The solid wastes contaminate the soil and water supply. Liquefied and gaseous wastes are more

sinister as they can spread to a wider area quickly and cause potential havoc across the globe.

CO2 levels have increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 373ppm by 1997, along with a rise in

methane, nitrogen and chorine, the latter of which was only found in trace amounts before the

industrial revolution.

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Figure 15 : Global Waste Statistics 2000 (GCK Project) xv

Organic and metallic pollutants such as plastic or loose strings of wiring are found in the most

remote parts of the Arctic, obviously dumped in the ocean of the nearby continents and carried over

by the currents. These bits and pieces are swallowed by fish and mammals living in these regions and

they instantly choke to death.

xv

http://www.cspo.org/gck/home/repositories/environment/waste.html Retrieved 29th

January, 2011

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Overpopulation has always been a driving factor in creating excess waste and thereby polluting the

environment. The sheer amount of waste produced is directly proportional to the amount of

inhabitants in a given region multiplied with the quantity each person uses and the total waste

generated in the entire process. (WOA) 16

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CURRENT STATE OF THE ECOSYSTEMS

The earth’s ecosystems play a vital part in human existence and success. The wetlands purify our

water supply and break down toxic waste. Forests encourage rainfalls and prevent soil erosion. Coral

reefs and mangroves protect the coastlines all over the world from eroding away.

However, all these ecosystems are currently under danger from the immense strain put by humans,

draining their natural resources for their own consumption.

Below are detailed analyses of the current state of few of the most vital ecosystems on the planet,

both on a local and global scale.

Biodiversity

Figure 16 : Wildlife habitat populations (IUCN) xvi

xvi

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Global re-introduction perspectives 2010 : additional case-studies from around the globe http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-076.pdf Retrieved 28

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Biodiversity is a vast natural resource, showing over 3 billion years of evolution. Biodiversity is not

just the total number of species; it also takes into account the genetic differences within each

species, and is of huge significance to the human population.

Currently, there are around 300000 known plant species, out of which some 3000 are exploited for

food and over 40000 have medicinal value. Plants have been a source for new medical discoveries

since the last three centuries. We have scientifically identified around 1.75 million species on this

planet. A majority of them are insects, while actual vertebrates such as birds, fish, mammals,

reptiles, amphibians etc., make up around 2.5 %. Though, there are still a wide variety of species still

undetermined, and estimates state that the total number could fall between the 10-20 million

ranges.

However, as shown in Figure 12, many of the planet’s wildlife are going extinct. The root cause for

this is the human interference in their natural environment. By 1600, at least 480 animal and 650

plant species were declared extinct through human interference. However, these are just the

recorded cases and there could be thousands of other species dying out without us even having a

chance to discover them. (IUCN) 17

Figure 17 : Areas around the globe with greatest extinction risk (UCSD NEWS) xvii

xvii

http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/newsrel/science/02-08BattlegroundsForConservation.asp Retrieved 28th

January, 2011

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As explained by Kim McDonald, (reporter)

“The map regions colour-ranked by how much area is projected to change by 2100 in

relation to how much area is currently protected (“Conservation Risk”). Many of the tropical,

but not temperate regions with greatest risk (red) are also of highest conservation value as

indicated by their higher number of globally unique amphibians, birds, mammals and

reptiles.”

(UCSD NEWS) 18

According to Heywood, the predictions for future generations look quite dull. If the rate of

deforestation continues at its current speed, it’s estimated at least 11% of all forest species will die

out within the next twenty years. Forest wildlife has been divided by human interference, having to

either adapt or die while we cut down trees to use the land for construction cities or farms, which

even create havoc in certain species that follow a strict migratory pattern.

Also, our constant burning of fossil fuels has created the global warming effect all over the planet.

While this has only currently affected us in terms of a little more heat, the rise in temperature at

certain zones has caused various bird species to migrate to a greater distance. If this continues then

in the future, animals which prefer the colder environment will cease to exist indefinitely.

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Figure 18 : Link between Climate change and biodiversity loss (UNEP) xviii

The Global Biodiversity Assessment discovered that the crucial danger to biodiversity was

destruction of territory, disintegration and degradation, born out of the need for land to be used for

farming, residences, engineering, amenities, and transportation. Territory loss upsets 44 % of the

bird species, 55 % of the fishes, 68 % of the reptiles, and 75 % of the mammals (Heywood) 19

xviii

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/linkages-and-feedback-loops-among-desertification-global-climate-change-and-biodiversity-loss Retrieved 29

th January, 2011.

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Deforestation

As more numbers are added to the human population, the need for space increases too. By 1995,

only 1/3 of the planet’s land was occupied by forests. This is estimated to be half the amount than it

was around a hundred years ago.

We are decimating the forests at a shocking rate of 115 million hectares every ten years. Considering

the amount of forests present during the formation of this planet, only around 32% exist today, as

shown in figure 19 below, and the number is still declining.

Figure 19 : Deforestation Statistics (UNEP) xix

According to studies done by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the net loss of total

forests lost due to forest fires reached over 6 million hectares of land in Indonesia and Brazil. By

reducing the forests, you not only cause havoc on the local wildlife that depends on them, but also

create an imbalance in carbon dioxide levels on a global scale. (FAOSTAT) 20

xix

Image reference http://www.ecoclimax.com/2010/07/forests-ecosystem-management.html Retrieved 29th January 2011.

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Marine Life

Out of all the various ecosystems, marine life is probably the tiniest studied environment as humans

in general notice ecological problems based on how visible it is and how it directly affects them.

Still, marine environments are the ones facing the worst possible risks.

When we think of marine life, the primary issue that comes to mind is overfishing. The Food and

Agricultural Organization (FAO) has been keeping track of the major fish stocks over the past twenty

years and conclude that nearly 45% of the world fisheries have already crossed their maximum yield,

which means, if precautions aren’t taken, these fishing areas will be completely depleted.

With the ever increasing demand for food, and fish being the primary source of protein for various

developing countries, fisheries often tend to catch massive amounts of stock at a time, causing a

strain on the natural replenishing life cycle. The fish don’t grow to their optimum size, and a majority

of them don’t even reach the maturity stage so they fail to reproduce. As this continues, fish stock

just keeps decreasing.

However, overfishing isn’t the only issue that marine environments must face. There is a more lethal

threat, known as “dead zones”

A lot of waste gets dumped into our world’s oceans. Along with this, when we divert freshwater

lakes and rivers to meet our societies’ requirements we might inadvertently cause some of the

freshwater to reach the oceans.

This combined with the rising NO2 emissions from waste products, and the excess nitrogen in the

soil which might find its way into the ocean, results in birth of microscopic clusters of toxic algae that

can kill not just fish, but all types of marine life within that area, making it a “dead zone”

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The figure below explains in detail how dead zones are formed in marine environments

Figure 20 : Formation of Dead Zones xx

Currently, there are 50 known dead zones across the globe, with the one in the Gulf of Mexico being

the largest one so far, covering an area of around 4200 square kilometres and spreading.

(World Population Awareness) 21

xx

http://blog.nola.com/graphics/deadzone_how061007.gif Retrieved on 15th

February, 2011

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Climate Change

Ever since the dawn of the industrial revolution, there have been major alterations in the earth’s

climate. Our Ozone layer is thinning out, leaving us vulnerable to harmful ultraviolet radiations from

the sun, which could increase potential for skin cancer. Global warming has become a serious

concern as CO2 emissions continue to rise. The surface temperature of the planet has increased by

0.5 centigrade worldwide, and sea levels have increased by 25 centimetres, showing early warning

signs of the melting polar ice caps. Before the industrial era, CO2 density in the atmosphere was 2.2

gigatons and just three centuries later, densities have reached over 3 gigatons (shown below)

Figure 21 : Carbon Dioxide Emissions (UNEP) xxi

xxi

Image from : http://pics.livejournal.com/www_priroda_su/pic/000207tz Retrieved 14th

February, 2011

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With the rising temperatures, certain diseases which thrive in warmer climates will increase. For

example, malaria, which has already grown more rampant in many parts of the equator, could soon

spread to other regions if the temperature climbs steadily.

Also, the erratic climate increases chances of droughts in some parts of the world, and floods and

hurricanes in others.

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) created numerous scenarios to find out our

probable future, but since population densities, rates of consumption and sudden growth spurts in

technological advances are difficult to predict, it has been almost impossible to get a clear idea of

the possible damage being caused to the earth’s climate.

If the current developments continue, it’s estimated that the surface temperature of the planet will

have increased by 4 degrees centigrade within the next century. The sea levels will have risen by

over a 100cm and the volume of the polar ice caps will have reduced by at least 45% its current

weight.

With more CO2 we give out into the atmosphere, the threat of a global disaster rises steadily.

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SOLUTIONS

After a thorough discussion of how overpopulation is causing a debilitating effect on the global

environment, depleting the planet’s natural resources on which we heavily depend upon, the

challenge in front of us is critical.

World population is estimated to hit the 7 billion mark by the end of 2011, and to reach 10 billion by

2050. If that happens, the environmental hazards we face today will have increased threefold in size.

If we are to take steps in order to prevent, we have to do it on all three aspects responsible, namely

population growth, and rate of consumption

Population Control

Lack of education, particularly for women is considered as one of the most common causes for

overpopulation. Teaching countries family planning techniques and more importantly, giving

women some decision making power in the role of bringing up a family is considered to be

extremely effective.

Also, increasing access to contraceptives and other methods of birth control is required. While many

areas already have these, one must also teach the people not to shy away from using such birth

control measures.

Sex education is considered as a taboo in many cultures, but with the overpopulation disaster

looming ahead, perhaps it’s high time we change our archaic notions and work with solutions that

are more effective than mere scare tactics of abstinence.

All these measures can be implemented on a large scale by the government, and even small scale by

the schools and colleges. It will always be necessary to improve human welfare, but it shouldn’t

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always come at a cost of environment damage, especially when there are readily available

alternatives.

Rate of consumption

It is of no surprise that the rich countries are consuming way too many resources than required,

whereas the poor countries are struggling to live a balanced life with whatever little resources they

possess.

Certain resources like water, food and energy can be easily shared by world governments, kept at

reasonable prices of course. Another thing is to divert the market flow to make environmentally-

unsafe products less attractive to the world population, such as using fossil fuels. Instead they could

divert their finances towards more environment-conscious solutions such as solar energy, wind

turbines etc. These are not only environment friendly, but produce very little waste and are

reusable for long periods of time.

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CONCLUSION

If we focus on conserving nature and lowering our usage of resources, then we can achieve a healthy

sustainable relationship with the environment within the next decade. Timing is extremely crucial in

these cases: Even a decade’s delay could trigger the pressure points of the ecosystem and cause

irreparable damage to the planet.

The world population is soon to cross the 7 billion mark. Majority of our resources are very close

towards their threshold limits. If steps are not taken in the next few decades, we will be facing global

disasters and severe lack of resources.

However, the choice to prevent such a disaster is still in our hands. It’s just up to the people to act

before time inevitably runs out.

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REFERENCES

(Arranged in order of appearance in report)

1 “Another Inconvenient Truth”, Scientific American Magazine, 2

nd October 2009

2 Harrison, Paul and Pearce, Fred. 2000 ‘AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment’ Victorial Dompka

2 Harrison, Paul and Pearce, Fred. 2000 ‘AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment’ Victorial Dompka

Markham, editor. American Association for the Advancement of Science and the University of California Press. 3 Engelman R, et al., 2000 ‘People in the balance: Population and natural resources at the turn of the

millennium’, Population Action International. 4 Ehrlich and Holdren, Science, 171. 26 March 1971.

5 United Nations Population Division (UNPD), World Population Estimates. 1999.

6 John Bongaarts, Science Magazine 282, 20

th November 1998

7 United Nations Population Division (UNPD), Population Ageing. 1999

8 GDRC, http://www.gdrc.org/uem/footprints/carrying-capacity.html

Retrieved 16th February, 2011. 9 Paul Et al. 2000 ‘Atlas overview: Waste’ Atlas of Population and Environment.

http://atlas.aaas.org/pdf/21-26.pdf Retrieved 16th February, 2011 10

Thomas Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 http://www.gutenberg.org/files/4239/4239-h/4239-h.htm Retrieved 16

th January, 2011

11

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT) http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/default.aspx Retrieved 16

th February, 2011

12

Oldeman, Soil Degradation: A Threat to Food Security? International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), Wageningen, Netherlands, 1998. 13

Gardner-Outlaw and Engelman, Sustaining Water, Easing Scarcity, Population Action International, 1997. http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Reports/Sustaining_Water_Easing_Scarcity/Sustaining_Water_Easing_Scarcity_-_Full_Report.pdf Retrieved 24

th January, 2011

14

Dan Jones, The Threat of Global Water shortage, America Infrastructure 01/07/10 http://www.americainfra.com/news/global-water-shortage/ Retrieved 29

th January, 2011

15 Harrison et al. 2000 ‘Atlas Overview: Pollution and Waste’, pg. 25. Atlas of Population and Environment.

16

Data collected from various articles via World Population Awareness website http://www.overpopulation.org/ Retrieved 20

th January 2011.

17

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Global re-introduction perspectives 2010 : additional case-studies from around the globe http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-076.pdf Retrieved 28

th January, 2011

18

Kim McDonald, Study Finds Future ‘Battlegrounds’ for Conservation Very Different to Those in Past February 27, 2008 http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/newsrel/science/02-08BattlegroundsForConservation.asp Retrieved Jan 28

th 2011.

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19

UNEP (Heywood, ed.), Global Biodiversity Assessment, 1995. http://ressources.ciheam.org/om/pdf/c23/CI011056.pdf Retrieved 28

th January, 2011

20

Data gathered from http://faostat.fao.org/site/626/default.aspx Retrieved 29th

January, 2011 21

Data collected from various articles posted at World Overpopulation Awareness.org http://www.overpopulation.org/impact.html#oceans retrieved 28

th January, 2011