Overpopulation. Issues to Be Considered Population Growth – fertility rates, social and cultural...

OverpopulationOverpopulation

Issues to Be ConsideredIssues to Be Considered

Population Growth – fertility rates, social and cultural Population Growth – fertility rates, social and cultural roles, government rolesroles, government roles

Economic problems – debt, hunger and starvationEconomic problems – debt, hunger and starvation

Available resources – renewable (time frames), non-Available resources – renewable (time frames), non-renewablerenewable

Consumption – expectations, realityConsumption – expectations, reality

Urbanization – trends, benefits, problemsUrbanization – trends, benefits, problems

How Do You Transition from One Type How Do You Transition from One Type of Population Dynamic to Another?of Population Dynamic to Another?

Demographic TransitionsDemographic Transitions

How does an expanding population become a stable How does an expanding population become a stable population (i.e., change from an r-strategy to a K-population (i.e., change from an r-strategy to a K-strategy)?strategy)?

In an r-strategy stable population both the birth rates and In an r-strategy stable population both the birth rates and the death rates are high.the death rates are high.

If the death rate decreases because of better If the death rate decreases because of better food/medical/sanitation procedures, the population grows.food/medical/sanitation procedures, the population grows.

With technological development the birth rate drops With technological development the birth rate drops (female education? investment in offspring?)(female education? investment in offspring?)

In mature high technology society the birth rates and death In mature high technology society the birth rates and death rates are low, producing a K-strategy stable population.rates are low, producing a K-strategy stable population.

Demographic TransitionsDemographic Transitions

Estimates of Most Populous Countries Estimates of Most Populous Countries in 2025in 2025

Twelve most populous countries in 2025 (estimated populations in millions)Country 1950 1995 2025 Ratio*India 358 976 1533 4.3China 555 1255 1516 2.7Pakistan 39 148 357 9.2United States 159 274 347 2.2Nigeria 33 122 338 10.2Indonesia 80 207 318 4.0Brazil 54 165 243 4.5Bangladesh 42 124 218 5.2Ethiopia 18 62 212 11.8Iran 17 73 170 10.0Mexico 28 96 154 5.5Russia 102 147 114 1.1_______________________________________________________________________Source: Data from World Resources 1996-97, World Resources Institute.

*Ratio 2025 to 1950Ratio* = 2025:1950Ratio* = 2025:1950

Examples of Fertility RatesExamples of Fertility Rates

Countries with highest and lowest fertility ratesHighest Lowest (W. Europe) Lowest (E. Europe)

Total Fertility Rate 6.7 1.3 1.4GNP/capita/yr $225 $19,000 $3,108Life expectancy 47.6 yr 77.6 yr 68.9 yrBirth rate 47.6/1000 9.7/1000 9.9/1000Death rate 17.6/1000 10.0/1000 13.0/1000Infant mortality rate 120.0/1000 births 7.0/1000 births 22.0/1000 birthsAnnual growth rate 2.9% 0.1% -0.4%

Source: World Resources Institute.

Regional Regional Population Population

Distribution for Distribution for People Under People Under

Age 15Age 15

Fertility Rates USAFertility Rates USA

The Demographics of LifeThe Demographics of Life

USASource

www.populationconnection.org/Communications/demfacts.PDF

World

284.5 million Population, Mid 2001 6.1 billion

77 Population per square mile 118

15 Births per 1,000 people 22

9 Deaths per 1,000 people 9

2.1 Total fertility rate 2.8

21 % of pop under age 15 30

13 % of pop over age 65 7


USA World

49 Births per 1,000 women aged 15-19

50

7.1 Infant deaths per 1,000 live births

56

$29,240 GNP per capita (PPP) $6,300

995 kCal Avg daily per capita calories from animal products

441 kCal

66 Grains fed to livestock as % total grain consumption

3


USA World

19,674 kg Annual per capita carbon emissions

4,157 kg

5 % energy consumption from renewable sources

14

1 % female labor force in agriculture

52

4 % male labor force in agriculture

46

1,484 Tractor per 1,000 agricultural workers

20

NameName PopulationPopulation1. Cordova, Spain1. Cordova, Spain 450,000450,0002. Kaifeng, China2. Kaifeng, China 400,000400,0003. Constantinople (Istanbul), Turkey3. Constantinople (Istanbul), Turkey 300,000300,0004. Angkor, Cambodia4. Angkor, Cambodia 200,000200,0005. Kyoto, Japan5. Kyoto, Japan 175,000175,0006. Cairo, Egypt6. Cairo, Egypt 135,000135,0007. Baghdad, Iraq7. Baghdad, Iraq 125,000125,0008. Nishapur (Neyshabur), Iran8. Nishapur (Neyshabur), Iran 125,000125,0009. Al-Hasa, Saudi Arabia9. Al-Hasa, Saudi Arabia 110,000110,00010. Patan (Anhilwara), India10. Patan (Anhilwara), India 100,000100,000

Top 10 Cities of the Year 1000Top 10 Cities of the Year 1000

Estimates of Most Populous Countries Estimates of Most Populous Countries in 2025in 2025

Twelve most populous countries in 2025 (estimated populations in millions)Country 1950 1995 2025 Ratio*India 358 976 1533 4.3China 555 1255 1516 2.7Pakistan 39 148 357 9.2United States 159 274 347 2.2Nigeria 33 122 338 10.2Indonesia 80 207 318 4.0Brazil 54 165 243 4.5Bangladesh 42 124 218 5.2Ethiopia 18 62 212 11.8Iran 17 73 170 10.0Mexico 28 96 154 5.5Russia 102 147 114 1.1_______________________________________________________________________Source: Data from World Resources 1996-97, World Resources Institute.

*Ratio 2025 to 1950Ratio* = 2025:1950Ratio* = 2025:1950

NameName PopulationPopulation1. New York, United States1. New York, United States 12,463,00012,463,0002. London, United Kingdom2. London, United Kingdom 8,860,000 8,860,0003. Tokyo, Japan3. Tokyo, Japan 7,000,000 7,000,0004. Paris, France4. Paris, France 5,900,000 5,900,0005. Shanghai, China5. Shanghai, China 5,406,000 5,406,0006. Moscow, Russia6. Moscow, Russia 5,100,000 5,100,0007. Buenos Aires, Argentina7. Buenos Aires, Argentina 5,000,000 5,000,0008. Chicago, United States 8. Chicago, United States 4,906,000 4,906,0009. Essen, Germany9. Essen, Germany 4,900,000 4,900,00010. Calcutta, India10. Calcutta, India 4,800,000 4,800,000


NameName PopulationPopulation1. Tokyo, Japan 1. Tokyo, Japan 28,000,00028,000,0002. Mexico City, Mexico2. Mexico City, Mexico 18,100,00018,100,0003. Bombay, India3. Bombay, India 18,000,00018,000,0004. Sao Paulo, Brazil4. Sao Paulo, Brazil 17,700,00017,700,0005. New York, United States 5. New York, United States 16, 600,00016, 600,0006. Shanghai, China 6. Shanghai, China 14,200,00014,200,0007. Lagos, Nigeria7. Lagos, Nigeria 13,500,00013,500,0008. Los Angeles, United State 8. Los Angeles, United State 13,100,00013,100,0009. Calcutta, India9. Calcutta, India 12,900,00012,900,00010. Buenos Aires, Argentina 10. Buenos Aires, Argentina 12,400,00012,400,000


How to achieve demographic How to achieve demographic transition?transition?

Family planning in Thailand - example of Family planning in Thailand - example of success success

Annual population growth dropped from Annual population growth dropped from 3.3%3.3% in 1972 to in 1972 to 1.2%1.2% in 1995 in 1995. Mechai . Mechai Viravaidya, founder of Community-Based Viravaidya, founder of Community-Based Family Planning Service (CBFPS). Focused Family Planning Service (CBFPS). Focused on wants and needs of poor.on wants and needs of poor.

How did Thailand Accomplish How did Thailand Accomplish Transition?Transition?

• Celebrity Celebrity

• Humor/break taboos of contraception Humor/break taboos of contraception

• Condom give-a-waysCondom give-a-ways

• Financial incentivesFinancial incentives

• Reduced infant mortality due to infectious Reduced infant mortality due to infectious diseases - clean water supply diseases - clean water supply

• Altered desired number of children (from 8 Altered desired number of children (from 8 to 3)to 3)

Contrast Thailand with ChinaContrast Thailand with China

In China, population control is a political outcomeIn China, population control is a political outcome

Women must receive “birth coupons” prior to Women must receive “birth coupons” prior to conceptionconception

Mass murders of girl babiesMass murders of girl babies

Abortions (even at 9 months gestation)Abortions (even at 9 months gestation)

Women of reproductive age examined and Women of reproductive age examined and monitoredmonitored

World PopulationWorld PopulationWhile demographic transition is occurring in many places, the world population keeps increasing at a rate of about 1.5% to 2% per year.

Doubling times at various compound interest ratesAnnual % Increase Doubling Time (years) 0.1 700 0.5 140 1.0 70 2.0 35 5.0 14 7.5 9 10.0 7 100.0 0.7

So the doubling rate So the doubling rate is between 35 and 46 is between 35 and 46 years!years!

Population Growth - OptimisticPopulation Growth - Optimistic

Growing prosperity will reduce desire for large Growing prosperity will reduce desire for large families.families.

Technology/communication will spread Technology/communication will spread information faster, making transition more rapid information faster, making transition more rapid than it occurred for more developed countries.than it occurred for more developed countries.

Fertility rates are dropping and populations are Fertility rates are dropping and populations are stabilizing (except in Africa).stabilizing (except in Africa).

Population Growth - PessimisticPopulation Growth - PessimisticDemographic trapDemographic trap: : poorer countries will poorer countries will not become not become developed enough developed enough for birth rate to be for birth rate to be reduced, causing reduced, causing population growth population growth rates to remain high. rates to remain high. Catastrophe will be Catastrophe will be the only regulatory the only regulatory control.control.

World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth

What will this mean for the planet?What will this mean for the planet?

Will we alter the human carrying capacity by our Will we alter the human carrying capacity by our impact? impact?

What What cancan we do to help stabilize the world’s we do to help stabilize the world’s population? population?

What What shouldshould we do? we do?

People Overpopulation Compared to People Overpopulation Compared to Consumption OverpopulationConsumption Overpopulation

To put these two in context, consider the following equation:To put these two in context, consider the following equation:I = P I = P xx A A xx T T

wherewhereI = environmental impactI = environmental impactP = the population sizeP = the population sizeA = affluence (or consumption)A = affluence (or consumption)T = effects of the technology used T = effects of the technology used

People overpopulation relates the first term - PPeople overpopulation relates the first term - P

Consumption overpopulation relates to the last two Consumption overpopulation relates to the last two terms - A and T.terms - A and T.

Consumption ComparisonsConsumption Comparisons

One quarter of the global population living in developed countries consumes for 80% of the world’s total energy.

USA alone accounts for 6% of the global population , but consumes 30% of its resources.

20% of the global population consumes 70% of its material resources and possesses 80% of the wealth. The majority of this 20% in centered in Canada, USA, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Japan.


A child born today in the United States will by the age of A child born today in the United States will by the age of 75 years produce 52 tons of garbage, consume 10 million 75 years produce 52 tons of garbage, consume 10 million gallons of water and use 5 times the energy of a child born gallons of water and use 5 times the energy of a child born in the developing world. in the developing world.

The United States uses approximately one quarter of the The United States uses approximately one quarter of the world's fossil fuels and is the largest contributor of carbon world's fossil fuels and is the largest contributor of carbon dioxide, undesirable combustion products, and dioxide, undesirable combustion products, and chlorofluorocarbons, chemicals that contribute to chlorofluorocarbons, chemicals that contribute to greenhouse warming and attack the Earth's ozone shield. greenhouse warming and attack the Earth's ozone shield.


Increasing the fuel mileage of cars by just 3 mpg would save Increasing the fuel mileage of cars by just 3 mpg would save the same amount of oil that could be tapped from the Arctic the same amount of oil that could be tapped from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge over 10 years.National Wildlife Refuge over 10 years.

Every 20 minutes, the world adds another 3,500 human lives Every 20 minutes, the world adds another 3,500 human lives but loses one or more entire species of animal or plant life - at but loses one or more entire species of animal or plant life - at least 27,000 species per year. least 27,000 species per year.

Population is growing faster than food supplies in 64 of 105 Population is growing faster than food supplies in 64 of 105 developing countries. Overcultivation, primarily due to developing countries. Overcultivation, primarily due to population pressures, has degraded some 2 billion hectares of population pressures, has degraded some 2 billion hectares of arable land - an area the size of Canada and the United States arable land - an area the size of Canada and the United States combinedcombined

Globally, the demand for fresh water exceeds the Globally, the demand for fresh water exceeds the supply by 17 percent already. Two-thirds of the supply by 17 percent already. Two-thirds of the world's population will experience some form of a world's population will experience some form of a severe water shortage in the next 25 years.severe water shortage in the next 25 years.

By 2025, when world population is projected to By 2025, when world population is projected to reach 8 billion, 48 countries with a total population reach 8 billion, 48 countries with a total population of 3 billion will face chronic water shortages. In 25 of 3 billion will face chronic water shortages. In 25 years, humankind could be using over 90 percent of years, humankind could be using over 90 percent of all available freshwater, leaving just 10 percent for all available freshwater, leaving just 10 percent for the rest of the world's plants and animals.the rest of the world's plants and animals.


What is the Carry Capacity of the What is the Carry Capacity of the Planet for Humans?Planet for Humans?

Paul Erlich – Population Bomb, 1968 – predicted 2 Paul Erlich – Population Bomb, 1968 – predicted 2 billion. Now at 6 billion.billion. Now at 6 billion.

Julian Simon – there is no problem, more people Julian Simon – there is no problem, more people means more potential technology solutions.means more potential technology solutions.

Some estimate 20 billion will be maximum (at this Some estimate 20 billion will be maximum (at this rate, in your lifetime!!!)rate, in your lifetime!!!)

Solution = balance of population controls and Solution = balance of population controls and consumption controls.consumption controls.

What Should We Do?What Should We Do?

Overpopulation. Issues to Be Considered Population Growth – fertility rates, social and cultural...

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