Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023...

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Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 1 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018: 2.4% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020, 1.5% in 2021, 1.5% in 2022, 1.4% in 2023 Source: Macrobond, IMF, Federation of Finnish Technology Industry

Transcript of Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023...

Page 1: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0%

Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023

126.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018: 2.4% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020, 1.5% in 2021, 1.5% in 2022, 1.4% in 2023Source: Macrobond, IMF, Federation of Finnish Technology Industry

Page 2: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

In Development of Industrial Production, Finland

Has a Gap of 15% Compared to the EU Average

226.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus Source: Macrobond

Page 3: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

326.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus Latest information February 2018Source: Board of Customs

The Value of Finnish Goods Exports Has Not Increased after Spring 2017

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000Million euros by month, at current prices

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Page 4: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

426.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus Latest information October-December 2017.Source: Eurostat: Quarterly National Accounts

In Productivity Development, Finland Has a Gap of 25% Compared to EU Average and 20% Compared to Sweden and Germany Value added in manufacturing industry at fixed prices / hours worked

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

EU countries

Sweden

Germany

Finland

2008=100

Page 5: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

526.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus Latest information October-December 2017.Source: Eurostat: Quarterly National Accounts

In Productivity Development of the National Economy, Finland Has a Gap of 6% Compared to EU Average and 4% to Sweden and Germany GDP at fixed prices / hours worked

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

EU countries

Sweden

Germany

Finland

2008=100

Page 6: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Investment Rate of Companies in Finland Is

Completely Inadequate to Close the Gap between

Finland and Other Small European Countries

626.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus Source: Eurostat

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Companies’ fixed investment compared to GDP, %

Switzerland

Sweden

Belgium

Austria

Euro countries

Finland

Page 7: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Growth in Turnover of the Technology Industry in

Finland Has Slowed Down

726.4.2018 TeknologiateollisuusSeasonal adjusted turnover indexShare of turnover 2017: mechanical engineering 40%, electronics and electrotechnical industry 20%, information technology 17%, metals industry 15%, consulting engineering 8%Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland

Page 8: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Technology Industry Personnel in Finland and

Abroad

826.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus

150 000

170 000

190 000

210 000

230 000

250 000

270 000

290 000

310 000

330 000

350 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018(31.3)

Personnel in Finland Personnel subsidiaries abroad

Source: Statistics Finland, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey

Page 9: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Value of New Orders in the Technology Industry*

in Finland

926.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

12 000

13 000

Combined

Export

Domestic

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million euros, at current prices

Change: I,2018 / I,2017 I,2018 / IV,2017

Export: +6 % -28 %

Domestic: +49 % +1 %

Combined: +17 % -20 %

*) Excl. metalsindustry, gameindustry and data center companies

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation January-March 2018.

Page 10: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Value of Order Books in the Technology Industry*

in Finland

1026.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

22 000

24 000

26 000

Export

Domestic

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million euros, at current prices

Change: 31.3.2018 / 31.3.2017 31.3.2018 / 31.12.2017

Export: +27 % -1 %

Domestic: +15 % +10 %

Combined: +24 % +1 %

*) Excl. metalsindustry, gameindustry and data center companies

Combined

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation 31.3.2018

Page 11: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Value of New Orders in the Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry in Finland

1126.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

Combined

Export

Domestic

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million euros, at current prices

Change: I,2018 / I,2017 I,2018 / IV,2017

Export: +9 % +2 %

Domestic: +35 % -19 %

Combined: +13 % -3 %

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation January-March 2018.

Page 12: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Value of Order Books in the Electronics and

Electrotechnical Industry in Finland

1226.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus

0500

1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 5005 0005 5006 0006 5007 0007 5008 0008 500

Export

Domestic

Million euros, at current prices

Change: 31.3.2018 / 31.3.2017 31.3.2018 / 31.12.2017

Export: +2 % 0 %

Domestic: +22 % -16 %

Combined: +5 % -4 %

Combined

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation 31.3.2018

Page 13: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Value of New Orders in the MechanicalEngineering in Finland

1326.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

Combined

Export

Domestic

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million euros, at current prices

Change: I,2018 / I,2017 I,2018 / IV,2017

Export: +4 % -42 %

Domestic: +38 % -16 %

Combined: +10 % -38 %

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation January-March 2018.

Page 14: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Value of Order Books in the Mechanical

Engineering in Finland

1426.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Export

Domestic

Million euros, at current prices

Change: 31.3.2018 / 31.3.2017 31.3.2018 / 31.12.2017

Export: +37 % -2 %

Domestic: +18 % +17 %

Combined: +33 % +1 %

Combined

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation 31.3.2018

Page 15: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Turnover of the Metals Industry in Finland

154/26/2018 Source: Seasonal adjusted turnover index, Statistics Finland, MacrobondTechnology Industries of Finland

Page 16: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Production Volume of the Metals Industry in

Finland

1626.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus Seasonal adjusted volume indexSource: Statistics Finland, Macrobond

Page 17: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Value of New Orders in the Consulting Engineering

in Finland

1726.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Combined

Export

Domestic

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million euros, at current prices

Change: I,2018 / I,2017 I,2018 / IV,2017

Export: +14 % +103 %

Domestic: +43 % +21 %

Combined: +38 % +28 %

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation January-March 2018.

Page 18: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Value of Order Books in the Consulting

Engineering in Finland

1826.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Export

Domestic

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million euros, at current prices

Change: 31.3.2018 / 31.3.2017 31.3.2018 / 31.12.2017

Export: -10 % +3 %

Domestic: +31 % +13 %

Combined: +19 % +11 %

Combined

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation 31.3.2018.

Page 19: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Value of New Orders in the Information

Technology* in Finland

1926.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus

050

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950

1 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million euros, at current prices

Change: I,2018 / I,2017 I,2018 / IV,2017

Combined: +75 % +60 %

*) Excl. game industry and data center companies.

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation January-March 2018.

Page 20: Overcoming the Gap in GDP Will Require 3.0% Growth in ......Growth in Finland Annually in 2018-2023 26.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus *) The IMF forecast for the euro area in April 2018:

Value of Order Books in the Information

Technology* in Finland

2026.4.2018 Teknologiateollisuus

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million euros, at current prices

Change: 31.3.2018 / 31.3.2017 31.3.2018 / 31.12.2017

Combined: +4 % +17 %

*) Excl. game industry and data center companies.

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation 31.3.2018.