Outlook January 2013
25
Economic Outlook January 2013 Economic Policy Division
-
Upload
greater-memphis-chamber -
Category
Documents
-
view
320 -
download
1
Transcript of Outlook January 2013
Economic OutlookJanuary 2013
Economic Policy Division
1970 1977 1980198219841985198719891991199219941996199819992001200320052006200820102012-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Percent Change, Annual Rate
Real GDP Outlook
U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1970 to Q4 2011
Real GDP Trillion 2005 Dollars Log Scale
19701970197019701971197119711971197219721972197219731973197319731974197419741974197519751975197519761976197619761977197719771977197819781978197819791979197919791980198019801980198119811981198119821982198219821983198319831983198419841984198419851985198519851986198619861986198719871987198719881988198819881989198919891989199019901990199019911991199119911992199219921992199319931993199319941994199419941995199519951995199619961996199619971997199719971998199819981998199919991999199920002000200020002001200120012001200220022002200220032003200320032004200420042004200520052005200520062006200620062007200720072007200820082008200820092009200920092010201020102010201120112011201120122012201220122013201320132013
Actual
Potential
48.0
Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office
$5.2-
$11.5-
$7.7-
$4.2-
$14.0-
$9.4-
$6.3-
Forecast
Comparing Recessions
Trough
GDP Loss (Peak to Trough)
Duration of Recession
GDP Growth in the following year
GDP Growth in the following 2 years
GDP Growth in the following 3 years
Average monthly payroll employment growth in 3 years following trough (thous.)
Months from end of recession until we reached prior employment peak
May 1954 (II) -2.5 (%)
10 (months) 7.9 (%)
5.0 (%) 4.0 116 13
April 1958 (II) -3.1 8 9.6 5.7 4.2 72 12February 1961 (I) -0.5 10 7.5
5.6 5.8 117 10
November 1970 (IV) -0.2 11 4.5
5.7 5.2 103 6
March 1975 (I) -3.2 16 6.2 4.7 4.5 245 9November 1982 (IV) -2.6 16 7.7
6.7 5.8 268 12
March 1991(I) -1.4 8 2.6 3.0 3.2 128 23November 2001 (IV) +0.7 8 1.9
2.9 2.9 36 39
June 2009 (II) -4.7 18 2.5 2.2 2.2 74 N/A
198019801980198019811981198119811982198219821982198319831983198319841984198419841985198519851985198619861986198619871987198719871988198819881988198919891989198919901990199019901991199119911991199219921992199219931993199319931994199419941994199519951995199519961996199619961997199719971997199819981998199819991999199919992000200020002000200120012001200120022002200220022003200320032003200420042004200420052005200520052006200620062006200720072007200720082008200820082009200920092009201020102010201020112011201120112012201220122012201320132013-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9Percent Change, Annual Rate
19801980 - Q21980 - Q31980 - Q419811981 - Q21981 - Q31981 - Q419821982 - Q21982 - Q31982 - Q419831983 - Q21983 - Q31983 - Q419841984 - Q21984 - Q31984 - Q419851985 - Q21985 - Q31985 - Q419861986 - Q21986 - Q31986 - Q419871987 - Q21987 - Q31987 - Q419881988 - Q21988 - Q31988 - Q419891989 - Q21989 - Q31989 - Q419901990 - Q21990 - Q31990 - Q419911991199119911992199219921992199319931993199319941994199419941995199519951995199619961996199619971997199719971998199819981998199919991999199920002000200020002001200120012001200220022002200220032003200320032004200420042004200520052005200520062006200620062007200720072007200820082008200820092009200920092010201020102010201120112011201120122012-3
-1.5
0
1.5
3Percent Change
19801980 - Q21980 - Q31980 - Q419811981 - Q21981 - Q31981 - Q419821982 - Q21982 - Q31982 - Q419831983 - Q21983 - Q31983 - Q419841984 - Q21984 - Q31984 - Q419851985 - Q21985 - Q31985 - Q419861986 - Q21986 - Q31986 - Q419871987 - Q21987 - Q31987 - Q419881988 - Q21988 - Q31988 - Q419891989 - Q21989 - Q31989 - Q419901990 - Q21990 - Q31990 - Q419911991199119911992199219921992199319931993199319941994199419941995199519951995199619961996199619971997199719971998199819981998199919991999199920002000200020002001200120012001200220022002200220032003200320032004200420042004200520052005200520062006200620062007200720072007200820082008200820092009200920092010201020102010201120112011201120122012201210
20
30
40
50
60
70
Trillion $
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Real Disposable Income Per Capita
Household Wealth
Personal Consumption Outlook
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 20100
5
10
15
20
Trillion $
1991
1991
1991
1991
1992
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1993
1993
1994
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996
1997
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
10
11
12
13
14
15
Percent of Disposable Personal Income
Consumer Debt Service
Household Liabilities
1 9 170
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nonfinancial AssetsFinancial Assets
Trillion $ Household Assets
Household Balance Sheet
199819992000200120022003200420052006 20110
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Thous. of Units, SAAR
Housing Market Trends
Housing Starts
199919991999199919991999199919991999199919991999200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009201080
120
160
200
240
280Sales Price, Thous. $
Existing Homes
New Homes
Median Home Prices
199919991999199919991999199919991999199919991999200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122500
3500
4500
5500
6500
7500
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Thous. of Units, SAAR
Existing Home Sales (right axis)
New Home Sales (left axis)
Home Sales
199819981998199819981998199819981998199819981998199919991999199919991999199919991999199919991999200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201220122012201220122012201220122012201280
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Housing Affordability Index
Housing Market Trends
199919991999199919991999199919991999199919991999200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201220122012201220122012201220122012201220121500
2500
3500
4500
100
300
500
700Thous. of Units, SAAR
Existing Homes (right axis)
New Homes (left axis)
Housing Inventory
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
100
105
110
115
120Millions
Households
2009 2010 2011 20120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Percent
Home Mortgages with Negative
Equity
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Foreclosures: AllForeclosures: SubprimeDelinquencies: PrimeDelinquencies: Subprime
Mortgage Delinquency and
Foreclosure Rates
Investment
19801980 - Q21980 - Q31980 - Q419811981 - Q21981 - Q31981 - Q419821982 - Q21982 - Q31982 - Q419831983 - Q21983 - Q31983 - Q419841984 - Q21984 - Q31984 - Q419851985 - Q21985 - Q31985 - Q419861986 - Q21986 - Q31986 - Q419871987 - Q21987 - Q31987 - Q419881988 - Q21988 - Q31988 - Q419891989 - Q21989 - Q31989 - Q419901990 - Q21990 - Q31990 - Q419911991 - Q21991 - Q31991 - Q419921992 - Q21992 - Q31992 - Q419931993 - Q21993 - Q31993 - Q419941994 - Q21994 - Q31994 - Q419951995 - Q21995 - Q31995 - Q419961996199619961997199719971997199819981998199819991999199919992000200020002000200120012001200120022002200220022003200320032003200420042004200420052005200520052006200620062006200720072007200720082008200820082009200920092009201020102010201020112011201120112012201220122012201320132013-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40Percent Change, Annual Rate
19801980 - Q21980 - Q31980 - Q41981 - Q11981 - Q21981 - Q31981 - Q41982 - Q11982 - Q21982 - Q31982 - Q41983 - Q11983 - Q21983 - Q31983 - Q41984 - Q11984 - Q21984 - Q31984 - Q419851985 - Q21985 - Q31985 - Q41986 - Q11986 - Q21986 - Q31986 - Q41987 - Q11987 - Q21987 - Q31987 - Q41988 - Q11988 - Q21988 - Q31988 - Q41989 - Q11989 - Q21989 - Q31989 - Q419901990 - Q21990 - Q31990 - Q41991 - Q11991 - Q21991 - Q31991 - Q41992 - Q11992 - Q21992 - Q31992 - Q41993 - Q11993 - Q21993 - Q31993 - Q41994 - Q11994 - Q21994 - Q31994 - Q419951995 - Q21995 - Q31995 - Q419961996199619961997199719971997199819981998199819991999199919992000200020002000200120012001200120022002200220022003200320032003200420042004200420052005200520052006200620062006200720072007200720082008200820082009200920092009201020102010201020112011201120112012201220122012201220122012-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45Percent Change, Annual Rate
19801980 - Q21980 - Q31980 - Q41981 - Q11981 - Q21981 - Q31981 - Q41982 - Q11982 - Q21982 - Q31982 - Q41983 - Q11983 - Q21983 - Q31983 - Q41984 - Q11984 - Q21984 - Q31984 - Q419851985 - Q21985 - Q31985 - Q41986 - Q11986 - Q21986 - Q31986 - Q41987 - Q11987 - Q21987 - Q31987 - Q41988 - Q11988 - Q21988 - Q31988 - Q41989 - Q11989 - Q21989 - Q31989 - Q419901990 - Q21990 - Q31990 - Q41991 - Q11991 - Q21991 - Q31991 - Q41992 - Q11992 - Q21992 - Q31992 - Q41993 - Q11993 - Q21993 - Q31993 - Q41994 - Q11994 - Q21994 - Q31994 - Q419951995 - Q21995 - Q31995 - Q419961996199619961997199719971997199819981998199819991999199919992000200020002000200120012001200120022002200220022003200320032003200420042004200420052005200520052006200620062006200720072007200720082008200820082009200920092009201020102010201020112011201120112012201220122012201320132013-150-120-90-60-30
0306090
120150
Billion Chained 2000$, Annual Rate
Real Private Investment in Equipment &
Software
Real Private Investment - Structures
Real Change in Private
Inventories
Sector Indicators
0
25
50
75
100
125
SA, 2000=100
ATA Truck Tonnage Index
300
400
500
600
thous, 6-month moving average
Total Rail Carloadings
1 6 11 160
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,4006 month moving average; thous. tons
Boxboard Production
1 6 11 160
2
4
6
8
10
12
$ Billions Monthly Leasing and Finance Index
U.S. Trade
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2000$
Real Net Exports of Goods and Services
19911991199119911991199119911991199119911991199119921992199219921992199219921992199219921992199219931993199319931993199319931993199319931993199319941994199419941994199419941994199419941994199419951995199519951995199519951995199519951995199519961996199619961996199619961996199619961996199619971997199719971997199719971997199719971997199719981998199819981998199819981998199819981998199819991999199919991999199919991999199919991999199920002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200120022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200320042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200420052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200520062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200620072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200720082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200820092009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201020112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201165
75
85
95
105
115Exchange Rate (Major Currencies/US$)
U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange
Rate
Labor Market
19911991199119911991199119911991199119911991199119921992199219921992199219921992199219921992199219931993199319931993199319931993199319931993199319941994199419941994199419941994199419941994199419951995199519951995199519951995199519951995199519961996199619961996199619961996199619961996199619971997199719971997199719971997199719971997199719981998199819981998199819981998199819981998199819991999199919991999199919991999199919991999199920002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200120022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200320042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200420052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200520062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200620072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200720082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200820092009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201020112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120122012201220122012201220122012201220122012100
110
120
130
140
Million
19911992199319931994199419941994199519951996199619961996199719971997199719981998199819981998199819991999199919992000200020002001200120012001200120022002200220022003200320032003200320042004200420042004200420052005200520052005200620062006200620062007200720072007200720072007200720082008200820082008200820082009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092010201020102010201020102010201020102011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120122012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122012200
300
400
500
600
700SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average
1991199119911991199119911991199119911991199119911992199219921992199219921992199219921992199219921993199319931993199319931993199319931993199319931994199419941994199419941994199419941994199419941995199519951995199519951995199519951995199519951996199619961996199619961996199619961996199619961997199719971997199719971997199719971997199719971998199819981998199819981998199819981998199819981999199919991999199919991999199919991999199919992000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002001200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022003200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032004200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042005200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052006200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062007200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072008200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092010201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Unemployment Rate U-6
Percent
Total Nonfarm Jobs
Initial Unemployment
Claims
Unemployment Rate December:
7.8 percent
199119911991199119911991199119911991199119911991199219921992199219921992199219921992199219921992199319931993199319931993199319931993199319931993199419941994199419941994199419941994199419941994199519951995199519951995199519951995199519951995199619961996199619961996199619961996199619961996199719971997199719971997199719971997199719971997199819981998199819981998199819981998199819981998199919991999199919991999199919991999199919991999200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201220122012100
110
120
130
140
150
Million
Household Employment
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061
62
64
66
68
SA, percent
Civilian Participation
Rate
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Median Weeks Unemployed, SA
Duration of Unemployment
1980198019801980198019801980198019801980198019801981198119811981198119811981198119811981198119811982198219821982198219821982198219821982198219821983198319831983198319831983198319831983198319831984198419841984198419841984198419841984198419841985198519851985198519851985198519851985198519851986198619861986198619861986198619861986198619861987198719871987198719871987198719871987198719871988198819881988198819881988198819881988198819881989198919891989198919891989198919891989198919891990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901991199119911991199119911991199119911991199119911992199219921992199219921992199219921992199219921993199319931993199319931993199319931993199319931994199419941994199419941994199419941994199419941995199519951995199519951995199519951995199519951996199619961996199619961996199619961996199619961997199719971997199719971997199719971997199719971998199819981998199819981998199819981998199819981999199919991999199919991999199919991999199919992000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002001200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022003200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032004200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042005200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052006200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062007200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072008200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092010201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220120
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000Thousands
Part-time for Economic Reasons
1 14 270
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Thousands
Marginally Attached
Discouraged Workers
Labor Market
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Interest Rates & Spreads
Risk Spread
Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus
Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0Percent
10-Year Treasury Note Yield
3-Month Treasury Note Yield
12345678910111213141516171819
0
1
2
3
4Percent
TED Spread
3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month
Treasury
Jan2008
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec
Jan2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan2012
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Excess Required Federal Reserve Assets Money Supply (M1)
Billions $
Fed Policy
Bank Assets and Liabilities
1 7 13 190
100200300400500600700800900
Large
Small
Billions $C&I Loans at Commercial
Banks
1 2 3 4 5 6 70
2
4
6
8
10
12
C&I LoansCredit CardsResidential Real EstateCommercial Real Estate
PercentDelinquency Rates at
Commercial Banks
1 7 13 190
200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
Revolving
Nonrevolving
Billions $Consumer Credit
Outstanding
Domestic Bank Lending
1 7 13 190
100
200
300
400
500
600
Large
Small
Billions $
Home Equity Loans
Europe
2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
UK France
Germany Eurozone
Percent Change, Annual Rate
Real GDP
Source: Oxford Economics
Europe
Source: Oxford Economics
2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 20120
2
4
6
8
10
12
UK France Germany Eurozone
Percent
Unemployment Rates
Source: Oxford Economics
Emerging Markets
2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 20120123456789
Mexico China India
PercentUnemployment Rates
2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Mexico China India
Percent Change, Year to YearReal GDP
• Expiring 2001/2003 Tax Cuts – Impacts marginal tax rates, dividends, capital gains, the estate tax, PEP/Pease, the marriage penalty, and the child tax credit. ($108 billion – CBO)
• Health Care Tax Increases – A provision of ObamaCare slaps a 3.8% surtax on all forms of investment income, including capital gains and dividends income, resulting in a total tax rate of 23.8% of capital gains and a total top rate of 43.8% on dividends income. ($836 billion/10 years – CBO & JCT)
• The End of AMT Patches – Congress generally “patches” the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) every year to help it keep pace with inflation. As a result, just over four million tax returns currently pay the AMT. If a new patch is not enacted retroactively for 2012, that number will increase to above 30 million for that year and would exceed 40 million by the end of the decade. ($103 billion – CBO)
• The End of Jobs Measures – Both the two percent payroll tax holiday and extended unemployment benefit will disappear at year’s end. ($89 billion – JCT)
• The End of Doc Fixes –At the end of the year, the current doc fix will end, leading to a nearly 30 percent immediate reduction in Medicare physician payment. ($10 billion – CBO)
• The Expiration of Various “Tax Extenders” – various normal “extenders,” such as the research and experimentation tax credit and the state and local sales tax deduction, expired at the end of 2011. Others, such as the production tax credit, will expire at the end of 2012. Some of these extenders are likely to be reinstated retroactively at the end of this year, but will disappear under current law. ($84 billion - CBO)
• Activation of the Sequestration – Owing to the failure of the Super Committee to find suitable spending cuts, the Congress adopted a sequestration process that would cut $1.2 trillion over 10 years from government spending. The cuts would begin on January 15, 2013. ($97 billion)
• Debt Ceiling – Given the current level of government spending and allowing the Treasury some leeway in financing expenditures, it is likely that the government debt issuance will once again bump up against the debt limit between November 2012 and February 2013.
The Fiscal Cliff
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Percent of GDP Deficit to GDP
-2,000-1,500-1,000
-5000
500
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Billions $Budget Deficit
CBO’s Baseline Deficit
(August 2012)
Alternative Deficit Forecasts
-1,600-1,400-1,200-1,000
-800-600-400-200
0200400
CBO Baseline CBO Alternative Fiscal Scenario
President's Budget
Billions $
ForecastBudget Deficit
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
CBO Baseline
CBO Alternative Fiscal Scenario
President's Budget
Deficit to GDP
Percent of GDP
Forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Percent of GDP
Debt to GDP
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Billions $Debt
Government Baseline Debt
(CBO’s Baseline – August 2012)
Alternative Debt Forecasts
0102030405060708090
100
CBO's Baseline Pro-jection
Alternative Fiscal Scenario
President's budget
Debt to GDP
Percent Forecast
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000CBO Baseline
CBO Alternative Fiscal Scenario
President's Budget
ForecastBillions $
Debt
Government Revenues and Outlays( percent of GDP)
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP)
Forecast
Source: CBO Baseline (August 2012)
