11

ANZIIF 2010 Liability Conference

Over the horizon What’s in store for currency markets?

Prepared by: Joseph Capurso, Currency strategistDate: March 2010

22

Important Information

This advice has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs, and before acting on the advice, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (“CBA”) as a provider of investment, borrowing and other financial services undertakes financial transactions with many corporate entities in Australia. This may include any corporate issuer referred to in this report.

For US and US investors: If you would like to speak to someone regarding the subject securities or issuer(s) described in this report, please contact Commonwealth Australia Securities LLC (“CAS”), a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) and a member of The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, ( “FINRA”) at 1 (212) 848-9307. This report was prepared, approved, published, and distributed in the USA by Commonwealth Australia Securities LLC (“CAS”). CBA is not registered as a broker-dealer under the Exchange Act and is not a member of the FINRA or any U.S. self-regulatory organization. Please see further disclaimers at the back of this document.

Please also view our website at www.research.commbank.com.au for a more detailed disclaimer.

33

Road Map

Our view…………………..………………………………….3

AUD…………………………………………………………...9

Hedging………………………………………………………15

The USD……………………………………………………..19

Cross rates…………………………………………………..29

4

Our economic view

Global economy is recovering

– China and Australia leading the economic recovery

– US looking strongest among the big advanced economies

– Eurozone at risk of ‘double dip’

– UK has the potential to give a positive surprise this year

Economic policy is shifting away from “emergency” levels

– RBA to be first to raise rates to ‘normal’

– Major central banks to tighten in HII 2010, but rates to remain low

– Government debt to be major focus for markets

5

Our FX view

USD recovery has just started

– US economic recovery supports a firmer USD

– Better global economy encourages offshore US investment

– Federal Reserve commitment to keep interest rates low preventing stronger USD, for now

Upside to AUD limited

– Investor risk appetite ‘waxing and waning’

– Interest differentials are wide but not much more upside

– Global recovery supporting commodity prices but Europe is a concern

– Australian assets (AAA bonds & commodities) are attractive

6

Our FX view NZD has some further upside

– Current soft patch is unlikely to last

– NZ’s small open economy is responding to global improvements

– AUD/NZD to edge lower as global economy improves and Reserve Bank of New Zealand tightens

EUR lower on weak economic data and concerns about government debt

– Risk of “double dip” recession

GBP has potential for upside surprise

– Large fall in UK TWI is a competitive depreciation; benefits to flow

– UK economy showing signs of a faster improvement than Europe

– BoE to change current bearish view

7

Our FX view

JPY to weaken as global economy improves

– Current strength in JPY reflects risk aversion and low real yields– USD/JPY to rise when US yields rise

– Better global economy & market stability lead to Japanese offshore investment

– Japan likely to be the last of G-7 economies to recover to pre-crisis levels

Asian EM FX strength to persist until Fed tightens

– Asian region absent large bank problems

– Consensus forecasts for Asian growth on the way up

– Asia has support of cyclical improvement in China’s economy

– Current account surpluses limit depreciation

8

Our FX view

Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11

AUD 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.82

EUR 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.32

NZD 0.70 0.72 0.71 0.68

GBP 1.65 1.63 1.64 1.64

JPY 95 96 98 100

CAD 1.06 1.05 1.08 1.12

CHF 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.10

CNY 6.81 6.78 6.75 6.67

End period

9

Our FX view

Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11

AUD-USD 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.82

AUD-EUR 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.62

AUD-NZD 1.26 1.21 1.20 1.21

AUD-GBP 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.50

AUD-JPY 84 84 83 82

AUD-CAD 0.93 0.91 0.92 0.92

AUD-CHF 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.88

AUD-CNY 5.99 5.90 5.74 5.51

End period

10

AUDHow did we go?

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09

WHAT HAPPENED ONE YEAR AGO?(end of quarter)

Consensus

CBA

Outcome

USD

*Spot at time of forecast

11

CBA and the Consensus

We are less optimistic than Consensus – first time in several years.

We revised down our forecasts – first time since October 2008.

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11

CBA V CONSENSUS: AUD/USD

CBA

Consensus

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11

CBA AUD FORECASTS(end quarter)

Market price

May 2009

March 2009

Feb. 2010

Oct. 2009

USD USD

AUD

1212

AUD

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1/3/83 27/2/89 26/2/95 24/2/01 23/2/07

AUD SINCE THE FLOAT

Banana Republic

(1986)

Sub-prime(2007-08)

USDUSD

Fed hikes rates

(1984)

Asiacrisis (1997)

Tech bust

(2001)

A foreign affair

13

What moves the AUD?

Trends in the USD against major currencies

– Fed has outlined its ‘exit strategy’, now for implementation

– Concerns about government debt in eurozone helping USD

Interest rate spreads

– RBA among first to raise rates – more to come, but gradual

– US Federal Reserve to reduce liquidity then raise rates

Commodity prices

– global economy improving, led by China

AUD

14

Reality check

The currency is at extreme levels against a range of currencies.

We expect this strength to wane over the next year.

0

10

20

30

40

AUD/USD AUD/NZD AUD/GBP AUD/EUR

ABOVE AVERAGE

%

Currently 24% above average

Forecast to be 11% above average

AUD

AUD/USD AUD/NZD AUD/GBP AUD/EURCurrent 0.92 1.30 0.61 0.67

Average 0.74 1.22 0.46 0.60Mar-11 0.82 1.21 0.50 0.62

15

USD strengthens as US economy improves.

– looming mortgage resets.

Downward revisions to 2010 global growth.

– Europe is the weak spot.

US & European equity markets fall by >20%.

China’s economic growth stalls (commercial property).

Australia’s recovery unexpectedly falters.

The Big FiveWeighted risk of occurrence

40%

25%

20%x

10%

x5%

AUD

16

Volatility

AUD is a volatile currency. – Very sensitive to global

financial market moves.

13 US cent trading range in an “average” year – 31 US cents in 2009.

Implied volatility in options is coming down. Unlikely to return to lows seen pre-GFC now that risk is more appropriately priced.

Our FX View

5

10

15

20

25

5

10

15

20

25

Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09

IMPLIED VOLATILITY(12 months)

%pa

AUD/USD

AUD/EUR

%pa

17

Funds have increased hedging by more than corporates.

Hedging benchmarks

Hedging

0

15

30

45

60

Exports Imports

CHANGES TO CORP. BENCHMARK*(% of contributors)

Increased

Decreased

* in last two years

0

15

30

45

60

Equity assets Debt owned

CHANGES TO FUNDS BENCHMARK*(% of contributors)

Increased

Decreased

* in last two years

18

Funds hedge more FX risk than corporates.

Hedging policy

Hedging

0

20

40

60

80

Equity assets Debt owned Debt owed

HEDGING POLICY OF FUNDS(% of exposure)

Fully hedged

Partially hedged

0

20

40

60

80

Exports Imports

HEDGING POLICY OF CORPORATES(% of exposure)

Fully hedgedPartially hedged

19

Funds are more pro-active (FX forecasts more influential) than corporates.

Influences on hedging benchmarks

Hedging

0

25

50

75

100

Equity assets Debt owned

INFLUENCES ON BENCHMARK: FUNDS(% of contributors)

Recent FX trends

FX forecasts

Other

0

25

50

75

100

Exports Imports

INFLUNCES ON BENCHMARK: CORP.(% of contributors)

Recent FX trends

FX forecasts

Other

20

The USDUS winning the beauty contest

USD is rising because its economy is recovering ahead of other large advanced economies.

90

95

100

105

90

95

100

105

Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10

LEVEL OF GDP(index Sept. 2008 = 100)

Pts Pts

Japan

US

Europe

UK

Lehman collapse

21

Inventory rebuild

Economic recoveries often start with inventory rebuild.

The inventory cycle has only just begun.

The USD

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10

USA: INVENTORY SALES RATIOTimes

22

Housing recovery

The overhang of homes is being wound down.

US housing construction is recovering — financed by banks!

-12

-6

0

6

12

-12

-6

0

6

12

Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10

US HOUSING(% change)%

New home construction(q%ch)

Mortgages (y%ch)

%

The USD

23

Business expansion

US businesses slashed capital spending (and jobs) heavily.

Rising productivity to encourage spending on new equipment.

Commercial construction likely to continue falling.

– But is small compared to equipment.

0

300

600

900

1200

0

300

600

900

1,200

Mar-00 Mar-03 Mar-06 Mar-09

US INVESTMENT

USD bn

USD bn

Equipment

Housing

Commercial

The USD

24

Ready, set…

Federal Reserves is keeping 2-year interest rates low:

– “exceptionally low rate for the federal funds rate for an extended period”.

USD can rise further once Federal Reserve fully implements its “exit strategy”.

The USD

65

75

85

95

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09

USD & WEIGHTED YIELDS

USD TWI (rhs)

US 2 year swap spread (weighted to

trading partners, lhs)

Pts%

25

Heading for the exit

The Federal Reserve has outlined its “exit strategy”

– Close and then wind down emergency liquidity facilities.

– Increase the discount rate relative to funds rate.

– Roll off or sell US government and mortgage-backed bonds.

– Temporary change in focus: interest rate paid on reserves and reduce target for reserves.

– “Normalise” funds rate.

Source: Speech by Chairman Bernanke, February 11 2010

The USD

26

Diversification risk: part I

USD remains the number one destination for FX reserves.

The explosion of AAA-rated US government debt gives reserve managers plenty to invest in.

0

20

40

60

80

0

20

40

60

80

Dec-99 Dec-02 Dec-05 Dec-08

FX RESERVES(% of total allocated reserves)% %

GBPJPY Other

USD

EUR

The USD

27

Diversification risk: part II

US public debt market is still the world’s largest.

– 56% of AAA-rated government debt is US.

Japanese public debt is not AAA-rated. Only half of eurozone public debt is AAA-rated.

The USD

0

3

6

9

12

US EZ JP UK Lat. AXJ Au. Swit. Scand.

Below AAA = US$19.8tn (56%)

AAA = US$15.7tn (44%)

PUBLIC DEBT MARKET($US trillion)

USD tn

28

Regime change needed

Exchange rate policy of the big FX reserve holders would need to change to reduce use of USD as destination for FX reserves.

Large FX reserves* FX reservesFree floatBrazil 241 Japan 1,001 Eurozone 197

Managed float / exchange controlsTaiwan 351 China 2,399 Algeria 144 Russia 432 Thailand 138

Real effective exchange rate targetSingapore 190 India 261

US dollar pegHong Kong 257 * minimum USD 100 billion

The USD

29

Fiscal precedents

There are many precedents of large fiscal adjustments.

The USD

0

5

10

15

20

Irel

and

(198

9)S

wed

en (

2000

)F

inla

nd (2

000)

Sw

eden

(19

87)

Den

. (1

986)

Gre

ece

(199

5)Is

rael

(19

83)

Bel

gium

(19

98)

Can

ada

(19

99)

Cyp

rus

(200

7)U

K (2

000

)Ja

pan

(19

90)

Ital

y (1

993)

Por

t. (1

985)

Lux

. (19

85)

Lux

. (20

01)

Icel

and

(200

6)N

eth.

(20

00)

Den

. (2

005)

Aus

tral

ia (

1988

)H

K (2

005

)N

Z (

1995

)A

ustr

ia (2

001)

Icel

and

(200

0)U

S (2

000

)G

erm

any

(200

0)

Ger

man

y (1

989

)S

witz

. (20

0)C

ypru

s (1

994)

Spa

in (2

006

)

LARGE FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS(cumulative change in cyclically-adjusted budget balance, % of GDP)

%

30

Spreads matter: part I

Interest rate differentials are an important influence on AUD/NZD.

AUD/NZD

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

-2

-1

0

1

2

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

AUD/NZD & INTEREST RATES

Australia-New Zealand 3 year swap differentials

(lhs)

AUD/NZD(rhs)

NZDpp

31

Spreads matter: part II

Starting point for rate differentials favour Australia.

New Zealand usually has a greater inflation problem than Australia, so rates have much further to rise.

AUD/NZD

0

2

4

6

8

0

2

4

6

8

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

CBA OFFICIAL RATE FORECASTS

Reserve Bank of Australia

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

%%

CBA (f)

32

Not just rate spreads

NZD gains more than AUD from global economic recovery.

– New Zealand exports are 30% of GDP while Australian exports are 20% of GDP.

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.01.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09

WORLD GDP & AUD/NZD

AUD/NZD(inverted)

(lhs)

Expected world GDP growth over next two

years (rhs)

%paNZD

AUD/NZD

33

Re-connect

Expectations for the world economy are important for AUD/EUR.

AUD/EUR

0

2

4

6

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09

WORLD ECONOMY & AUD/EUR

AUD/EUR(end of month, lhs)

Expected world GDP growth over next two

years (rhs)

%paEUR

34

Little upside left

AUD/GBP has jumped ahead of interest rate differentials.

AUD/GBP is close to the strongest point. We think yields on gilts have fallen too far.

AUD/GBP

0.25

0.35

0.45

0.55

0.65

-2

0

2

4

6

Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09

AUD/GBP EXCHANGE RATE

AUS-UK 3-month bill futures spread, % (lhs)

AUD/GBP (rhs)

ppt GBP

35

From risk aversion to risk loving?

AUD/JPY tends to rise sharply after a period of financial market volatility and risk aversion ends.

AUD/JPY

50

70

90

110

130

50

70

90

110

130

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

Volatility episodes

AUD/JPY AND VOLATILITY

JPY JPY

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

AU US EZ UK NZ

JPY CARRY TRADE INDICATOR(3 month volatility-adjusted return)

36

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Important Disclosures & Disclaimer

37

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3838

ANZIIF 2010 Liability Conference

Risk management

Prepared by: Richard KnightDate: March 2010

3939

Important Information

This advice has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs, and before acting on the advice, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (“CBA”) as a provider of investment, borrowing and other financial services undertakes financial transactions with many corporate entities in Australia. This may include any corporate issuer referred to in this report.

For US and US investors: If you would like to speak to someone regarding the subject securities or issuer(s) described in this report, please contact Commonwealth Australia Securities LLC (“CAS”), a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) and a member of The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, ( “FINRA”) at 1 (212) 848-9307. This report was prepared, approved, published, and distributed in the USA by Commonwealth Australia Securities LLC (“CAS”). CBA is not registered as a broker-dealer under the Exchange Act and is not a member of the FINRA or any U.S. self-regulatory organization. Please see further disclaimers at the back of this document.

Please also view our website at www.research.commbank.com.au for a more detailed disclaimer.

40

Facts about the AUD

FX volatility

Average annual AUD/USD trading range is 12 US cents or 18%.

In 2008, AUD/USD traded in a 38.5 cent range (0.6000 to 0.9850).

In 2009, AUD/USD traded in a 31.5 cent range (0.6250 to 0.9400).

In 2010, AUDUSD has traded in a 7.75 cent range (0.8575 to 0.9350).

Average AUD 1 month volatility is 16%. Last year volatility was trading above 40%!

What FX hedging solution is best??

41

Daily moves

AUD

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1-Jan-08 1-Jul-08 1-Jan-09 1-Jul-09 1-Jan-10

AUD/USD DAILY TRADING