Outlook for Fossil Fuel

7/30/2019 Outlook for Fossil Fuel

1/19

Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government

The Outlook for Domestic FossilFuel Prices and Availability

2007 AIChE-ACS Management ConferenceManaging CPI Energy and Raw Materials

Uncertainties in a Global Context

April 25, 2007

Houston, Texas

A. Michael SchaalDirector, Oil and Gas Division

Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting


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2007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference

Energy Issues To Consider

Trends in Energy Demand

The Role of Nuclear and Coal in Generation

The Contribution of Ethanol

What of Coal-To-Liquids and Other Alternative Fuels?

What of LNG and Other Natural Gas Sources?

What Does This Mean For Prices?


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0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030

ProjectionsHistory

Reference case$59

Low Price$35

High Price$100

World Oil Prices* in Three Cases(2005 dollars per barrel)

* Foreign low-sulfur light crude oil prices

History Projections


4/192007 AIChE-ACS Management Conference

World Oil Prices* in Three Cases(Nominal dollars per barrel)

0

40

80

120

160

1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030

History Projections

Reference case$95

Low Price$58

High Price$157

* Foreign low-sulfur light crude oil prices



Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030(quadrillion Btu)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Natural Gas

Petroleum

Coal

Nuclear

Renewables



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030

60% Net imports

Consumption

Production

History Projections

Liquid Fuels Production, Consumption, and Imports

(million barrels per day)

61%



Domestic Crude Oil Production by Source, 1990-2030(million barrels per day)

0

2

4

6

8

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Lower 48 Onshore

Total

Deep Water Offshore

ProjectionsHistory

Shallow Water Offshore

Alaska


8/19


Ethanol Consumption as E85 and Blended withMotor Gasoline, 1981-2030 (billion gallons)

0

5

10

15

20

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

ProjectionsHistory

Ethanol Blended into Motor Gasoline

Ethanol in E85


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Ethanol Supply by Source, 2003-2030 (billion gallons)

0

4

8

12

16

20

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

ProjectionsHistory

Corn Based

RFS

Imports

Cellulose Based


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Non-conventional Petroleum LiquidsCapital Investment Costs

(2005 thousand dollars per daily barrel of capacity)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Oil RefineryBiodiesel

Ethanol (Corn)

Gas-To-LiquidsCoal-To-Liquids

Biomass-To-Liquids

Extra-Heavy OilOil Sands

Shale Oil


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Gas-to-Liquids, Coal-to-Liquids, and Oil ShaleProduction in the Price Cases,

1990-2030 (million barrels per day)

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Coal to Liquids/Reference

Coal to Liquids/High price

Gas to Liquids/High price

History Projections

Oil Shale/High price


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Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports,1980-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

16%

21%Net importsConsumption

Production

Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030(trillion cubic feet)

3.0

0.60.9

4.5

0

1

2

34

5

6

7

Pipeline Liquefied Natural Gas

2005

2030

20.6 Tcf

26.1 Tcf

History Projections


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U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Transportation

Industrial

Residential

Commercial

Electric Power

ProjectionsHistory



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Electricity Capacity Additions by Year

Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 203

Coal Oil and Gas Nuclear

Hydro Other


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Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Alaska

Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional

Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore

Lower 48Associated-Dissolved

Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore

ProjectionsHistory


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Technically Recoverable U.S. Natural Gas Resources asof January 1, 2005 (trillion cubic feet)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Undiscovered nonassociated

Inferred nonassociated

Unconventional

Other unproved

Proved

Offshore

Coalbed methane

Shale gasTight gas

AlaskaLower 48 associated-dissolved

Onshore

Offshore

Onshore

283

478

226

162

193

50176

119 164

74126278

31131

Total: 1,342 trillion cubic feet


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Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three Cases,1980-2030 (2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

History Projections

High Price

$7.63

Low Price

$5.06

Reference Case

$5.98


18/19


Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three Cases,1980-2030 (nominal dollars per thousand cubic feet)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

History Projections

High Price$11.99

Low Price$8.42

Reference Case

$9.62


19/19


A. Michael Schaal

Energy Information Administration

[email protected]

Annual Energy Outlook 2007, February8, 2007

International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006

AEO2007Assumptions, April 2007

www.eia.doe.gov

Outlook for Fossil Fuel

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