Outlook for European forest products markets in 2001-2002
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Transcript of Outlook for European forest products markets in 2001-2002
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Outlook for European forest products markets in 2001-2002
by Ed Pepke
Forest Products Marketing Specialist
UNECE & FAO, Geneva
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Topics of presentation
• Wood market situation in 2000 and 2001
• Forecasts for 2002
• Implications on utilization of roundwood
• UNECE Timber Committee recommendations
• Concluding marketing principle
• Questions
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sources of information
• UNECE Timber Committee market statement from October 2001
• UNECE & FAO Timber Bulletin “Forest products annual market review, 2000-2001”
• UNECE & FAO TIMBER database
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
UNECE & FAO TIMBER database
• Annual forest products statistics from country correspondents, 1964-2000
• Timber Committee forecasts, 2001-2002
• Production, trade and consumption
• Available on Timber Committee website’s Market Information Service
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Forest products market segments
• Timber Committee forecasts for:SawnwoodPanelsRoundwood
• Status of markets for:Further processed products For example, Engineered Wood Products
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
UN Economic Commission for Europe Region
• Europe (focus of this presentation, 41 countries!)
• North America
• Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
UNECE Timber Committee outlook
• Record levels in 2000
• Weakening markets in 2001
• Improvement forecast initially in 2002
• Uncertainty of 2002 forecasts following the 11 September attacks
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Increasing globalization effects
• Some effects not specific to forest products sector
• Sector-specific:Multi-national buying chains, e.g., DIYGlobal product marketsExport-oriented plantations
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Forest products markets outlook
• Sawnwood
• Panels
• Utilization of roundwood
• Value-added products
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood production & consumption – Europe
70,000.0075,000.0080,000.0085,000.0090,000.0095,000.00
100,000.00105,000.00110,000.00115,000.00
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Consumption Production
11000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood consumption – N. America
0
20,00040,000
60,00080,000
100,000
120,000140,000
160,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Softwood Hardwood
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood production – CIS
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Production Consumption
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood exports – Europe
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Softwood Hardwood
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood exports – North America
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Softwood Hardwood
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood exports – CIS
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Softwood Hardwood
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood imports – Europe
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Softwood Hardwood
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood trade – Europe
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Exports Imports
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panels consumption – Europe
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Particleboard (with OSB) Plywood Fibreboard
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
MDF and OSB capacity – Europe
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
OSB MDF
1000
m3
Source: European Panel Federation, 2001
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
OSB Production
0
5
10
15
20
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
North America Europe
Mill
ion
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panel production – Europe
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Plywood Particleboard MDF
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panel exports – Europe
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Particleboard MDF Plywood
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panel imports – Europe
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Particleboard Plywood MDF
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panels consumption – N. America1984-2002
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000
Particleboard (with OSB) Plywood Fibreboard
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panels consumption – N. America1984-2002
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000
Particleboard Plywood Fibreboard OSB
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panels production – CIS
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2001 2002
Production Consumption
1000
m3
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Utilization of roundwood – Europe
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Wood pulp Sawnwood Panels
1000
m3 e
qu
ival
ent
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Utilization of roundwood – N. America
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Wood pulp Sawnwood Panels
1000
m3 e
qu
ival
ent
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Utilization of roundwood – CIS1988-2002
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Wood pulp Sawnwood Panels
1000
m3 e
quiv
alen
t
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Further-processed product markets
• Example: engineered wood products
• Other examples: furniture, builders joinery and millwork
• Production and trade increasing rapidly
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Engineered Wood Products
• World glulam production +19% in 2000
• Wooden I-beams now 33% of North American floor area
• LVL (Laminated Veneer Lumber) production –6% in 2000 in North America, but +4% growth forecast
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Rapid growth in further processed products
Added value for:DiversificationProfitabilityAvoiding commodities cyclical movements
• Shift to low-cost production countries
• Reduction in international trade barriers
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
UNECE Timber Committee statement
• Expand existing markets
• Develop new products to meet evolving needs
• Develop new markets for wood products
• Increase the wood culture in the UNECE region
• Coordinate international promotion of environmental advantages of wood
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Conclusion:
Remember the key marketing principal
1. Know your market.
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Know your market.
Where is my market ?
Hei, up here,tollo poro !
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Questions?