Outlook and Challenges for International Coal …China saw decreases in both 2014 and 2015,...
Transcript of Outlook and Challenges for International Coal …China saw decreases in both 2014 and 2015,...
Outlook and Challenges for International Coal Market in 2020
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Coal Group, Fossil Energies & International Cooperation UnitAtsuo Sagawa
23 December 2019The 434th Forum on Research Works
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Points of the Report
An increase in world coal consumption and imports is expectedin 2020, primarily centered around India, ASEAN nations, andAsia.
There were large decreases in spot coal prices during 2019 forboth steam coal and coking coal. This levelled out, beforetrending slowly upwards. At present: Spot steam coal prices (FOB price at Newcastle Port,
Australia) were around $67/ton Spot coking coal prices (Australian premium hard coking
coal FOB price) were around $135/ton Spot steam coal prices for 2020 are forecast to fluctuate at
around $70/ton due to seasonal factors, with spot coking coalprices expected to be between $140 - $150/ton
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Global Coal Consumption Trends
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Global coal consumption increased again from 2017 onwards. This is largely centered around the Asia Pacific, with OECD Europe and North
America seeing ongoing declines. An increase in coal consumption amounts is expected in 2020, primarily centered
around India, ASEAN nations, and Asia.
2.2%2.8%
7.7% 7.3%
5.9% 5.6%5.0%
2.1%1.0%
6.5%5.2%
2.0%
1.3%
-0.9%
-2.7%-2.5%
1.7%1.1%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
(百万t)
中東・アフリカ
中南米
北米
非OECD欧州・ユーラシア
OECD欧州
アジア・太平洋
総消費量の対前年伸び率
Note: Data for 2018 is preliminarySource: IEA Coal Information 2019
Trends in Per-Region Coal Consumption Amounts
Millions of Tons
Rate of growth of total consumption over previous year
Middle East/Africa
Central and South America
North America
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
OECD Europe
Asia/Pactific
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Global Coal Trade
3
Global coal trade decreased sharply in 2015, before increasing once more. Steam coal saw a gradual increase, with coking coal increasing until 2017, before
becoming flat in 2018. Although growth rates went down in 2019, an increase is forecast for coal trade
in 2020 for both steam and coking coal.
Note: Data on import trading amounts for 2018 is preliminarySource: IEA Coal Information 2019
5.9%
3.6%
6.5%8.0%
2.8%
8.1%5.4%
2.1%
2.1%
14.6%
7.3%
10.2%
6.2%
1.5%
-8.9%
4.0%4.7%3.6%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18*
(百万t)
一般炭
原料炭
無煙炭
褐炭
対前年伸び率
Trends in Coal Trading Amounts Per-Type
Millions of Tons
Rate of growth over previous year
Steam Coal
Coking Coal
Anthracite
Lignite
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Trends in Steam Coal Prices
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Spot steam coal prices hit a peak of $123/ton in July 2018 but fell to $62/ton inAugust 2019.
This was followed by a gradual rise, with current prices at around $67/ton.Demand due to the winter seasons is likely to cause a further gradual rise.
Trends in Spot Steam Coal Prices (FOB price at Newcastle Port, Australia)
Source: globalCOAL
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18Ju
l-18
Jan-
19Ju
l-19
(US$/t)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-
18
Feb-
18M
ar-1
8
Apr
-18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19M
ar-1
9
Apr
-19
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
(US$/t)
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Steam Coal Imports by Major Import Countries (Regions)
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China: Saw another increase from 2016 (left chart). This was followed by a reduced rateof increase from 2019 (right chart).
India: Increased by 22.6 million tons in 2018, with increases continuing in 2019. Korea: Increased by 16.5 million tons in 2017 but decreased in 2019. Japan: Imported a record amount of 114 million tons in 2017, but this decreased in 2019. ASEAN nations have seen increases of over 10 million tons every year since 2016. This
increase continued in 2019. By comparison, amounts have declined in the EU since 2013. This decrease continued in
2019.
Note: ASEAN Represents Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. EU data for 2018 is estimated by IEEJ.
Source: Trade statistics of each country, TEX report, EUROSTAT
Source: Trade statistics of each country, TEX report
Imports by Major Asian Import Countries(Jan. - Oct.)
30.1
-0.1
-50.9
4.0
37.4 35.0
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
アセアン
EU
インド
日本
韓国
中国
計
(百万t)
88.0 122.0
94.4 91.6 101.7 144.1
94.5 91.1 107.0
162.1
91.4 85.0
020406080
100120140160180
中国 インド 日本 韓国
(百万t) 2017年 2018年 2019年
+5.2%
+12.5%
+0.1% -3.2% -0.5%-6.8%
+18.1%
+15.5%
Millions of Tons
Millions of Tons
ASEAN
India
Japan
Korea
China
Total China India Japan Korea
2017 2018 2019
Year-On-Year Imports Changes
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Monthly Steam Coal Import Amounts for China and India
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China Import amounts for February, March, and April of 2019 were lower than the previous
year, but exceeded it in the following months. The totals for January to Octobershowed an increase of 5.25 million tons year-over-year.
India Amounts from January to July exceeded the previous year but were lower from August
onwards. The total for January to October was 162.13 million tons imported (an increase of 18
million tons year-over-year).
Source: TEX reportSource: Trade Statistics for India
China India
0
5
10
15
20
25
1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月
2017 2018 2019(百万t)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月
2017 2018 2019(百万t)
Source: TEX report
Millions of Tons Millions of Tons
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
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Steam Coal Exports by Major Export Countries
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Indonesia saw a 3-year long decrease from 2014 but saw increases again from2017.
Russia saw increases from 2016, with the US seeing increases from 2017. Increases were seen in Colombia in 2016/2017, with a decrease in 2018. Indonesia and Australia saw year-over-year increases for 2019. On the other
hand, both the US and Colombia saw decreases.
Year-On-Year Export Changes Major Export Countries’ Steam Coal Export Amounts (Jan. - Sept.)
Source: TEX report
51.2
4.6
-47.5
-5.2
66.6
35.2
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
米国
南アフリカ
コロンビア
ロシア
インドネシア
豪州
計
(百万t)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
豪州
(1-9月)
米国
(1-9月)
ロシア
(1-9月)
コロンビア
(1-9月)
南ア
(1-9月)
インドネシア
(1-9月)
(百万t) 2017年 2018年 2019年
Source: TEX report, IHS etc.
Millions of TonsMillions of Tons
US
South Africa
Colombia
Russia
Indonesia
Australia
Total
Australia US Russia Colombia South Africa
Indonesia
2017 2018 2019
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Trends in Coking Coal Prices
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Spot coking coal prices from mid-October 2018 onwards trended towards$220/ton in the latter half. However, reduced supply and demand from 2019saw this drop to $190/ton before going on to exceed $200/ton.
This was followed by a steep drop to below $130/ton in September, before pricesrose to $150/ton. Current prices are trending at around $135/ton.
Trends in Spot Coking Coal Prices (Australian Premium Hard Coking Coal FOB)
Source: IHS
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150
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l-11
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l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18Ju
l-18
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l-19
(US$/t)
100
120
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160
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200
220
240
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Jan-
18
Feb-
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Mar
-18
Apr
-18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
May
-19
Jun-
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Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
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Oct
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Nov
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(US$/t)
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Coking Coal Imports by Major Import Countries (Regions)
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China saw decreases in both 2014 and 2015, increases in 2016 and 2017, and a further decrease in 2018.
India saw a decrease in 2016 but saw increases from 2017,18. Although there was a large increase in China in 2019, India saw its increase stop,
with Japan and Korea remaining almost flat.
Year-On-Year Coking Coal Import Changes
Source: Trade statistics of each country, TEX report, EUROSTAT
Source: Trade statistics of each country, TEX report
27.2
-5.0 -14.8
10.7 14.3
-1.5
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
EU
インド
日本
韓国
中国
計
(百万t)
58.5 37.2
58.3
26.9
56.9 42.3
56.7
26.0
66.8
42.5 56.8
26.5
01020304050607080
中国 インド 日本 韓国
(百万t) 2017年 2018年 2019年
+17.3%
+0.5%
-2.8%+0.3%
-3.3%+1.8%
+13.6%
-2.7%
Imports by Major Asian Import Countries(Jan. - Oct.)
Millions of Tons
Millions of Tons
India
Japan
Korea
China
Total
China India Japan Korea
2017 2018 2019
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Monthly Coking Coal Import Amounts for China and India
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China Import amounts for 2019 tended to exceed the previous year. The totals for
January to October showed an increase of 9.9 million tons year-over-year.India
Import amounts for 2019 saw some fluctuations but stayed at almost the same level as the previous year. The totals for January to October showed an increase of 210,000 tons year-over-year.
Source: TEX report Source: Trade Statistics for India
China India
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月
2017 2018 2019(百万t)
0123456789
10
1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月
2017 2018 2019(百万t)Millions of Tons Millions of Tons
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
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Coking Coal Exports by Major Export Countries
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Australia saw a sharp decrease in 2017, followed by an increase in 2018. The US and Canada saw increases in 2017 and 2018, with Russia seeing
increases between 2016 and 2018. In 2019, Australia, Russia, and Canada saw year-over-year increases in export
amounts. The US, however, saw decreases.
Year-On-Year Coking Coal Export Changes
Source: TEX report
Coking Coal Exports by Major Export Countries
30.2
6.5
-19.6
2.5
-2.2
19.5
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
米国
ロシア
カナダ
豪州
計
(百万t)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
豪州
(1-9月)
米国
(1-9月)
ロシア
(1-9月)
カナダ
(1-6月)
(百万t) 2017年 2018年 2019年
Source: TEX report, IHS etc.
Millions of Tons
US
Canada
Russia
Australia
Total
Australia(Jan. to Sept.)
US(Jan. to Sept.)
Russia (Jan. to Sept.)
Canada(Jan. to Jun.)
Millions of Tons 2017 2018 2019
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2020 Coal Supply and Demand
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[Steam Coal] Import demand for steam coal will increase even as we enter 2020. Import amounts will continue to increase in India in line with extra consumption. Increases will be seen in ASEAN nations such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and the
Philippines. In China, international coal prices are comparatively cheap compared to domestic
prices, so no decreases in imports are expected. However, it is likely that there will be ongoing import restrictions.
Europe is expected to maintain its ongoing decline. Ensuring Availability During 2020, Australia, Russia, and Colombia will all have excess availability. In Indonesia, a policy-related cap is expected, but production targets for 2019 are
600 million tons. Production amounts are not expected to decrease substantially in 2020.
[Coking Coal] Import demand for coking coal is expected to be impacted by demand for iron and
steel. Import amounts will increase in India in line with business recovery. In China, international coal prices are comparatively cheap compared to domestic
prices, so no decreases in imports are expected. However, it is likely that there will be ongoing import restrictions.
Ensuring Availability Suppliers such as Australia and Russia have excess availability.
There is concern that delayed plans due to price decreases etc. will reduce this availability.
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2020 Coal Prices
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Trends in spot steam coal prices (FOB price at Newcastle Port, Australia):Prices hit a peak of $123/ton in July 2018 but fell to $62/ton in August 2019. Currentprices are trending at around $67/ton.In 2020 prices are expected to fluctuate at around $70 a ton, with seasonal factorscausing changes of between $5 - $10/ton.
Spot coking coal prices (Australian premium hard coking coal FOB price):Prices hit a peak of $210/ton in May 2019 but fell to below $130/ton in September.Prices briefly returned to $150/ton but are currently trending at around $135/ton.Prices are predicted to trend at around $140 to $150/ton in 2020.
Average Yearly Spot Prices for Steam and Coking Coal
2018 Average
2019 Average Jan. – Oct.
Average2019 Average 2020
Average
Steam Coal Spot Prices 106.30 79.15 77 70
Coking Coal Spot Prices 207.10 184.09 176 146
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