Outlook 6

8/2/2019 Outlook 6

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NetPicks Market Outlook 2011

Transcript Part 6 of 7

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Now, compare that with oil. I know Brian showed, you know, the silver on a daily andthis obviously can catch some nice big moves, but then again, this certainly is tradable ona day trading -- trading time frame, but on a daily time frame, you know, you reallywould know, you know, what to do and that‟s kind of where it‟s been. It‟s been fairly,

you know -- we obviously went that range of 75 to 80 then 80 to, you know, 85 but youknow, occasionally, it would pull back down a little bit hard below 80. So, obviously, Idon‟t like oil on a daily chart right now, but I would have probably said somethingdifferent earlier on the year. So if it‟s not giving it to you, you‟re not seeing it, look at adifferent time frame.

So, again, the keys are don‟t let your feelings, your personal feelings -- CNBC. I woulddo the exact opposite of whatever they tell me to do. You know, they -- they -- I'mwatching oil -- day trading oil and they‟re saying, “Oh, yeah, you know, oil‟s, you know,going -- is -- is gonna be going up,” but this isn‟t the course -- the market‟s going down.And -- so anyway, you know, we make money when the market moves, so we really

personally don‟t care and you shouldn‟t care, don‟t get emotionally attached to thedirection of the market, follow your signals and trust your system, okay.

Touching on trade psychology, that‟s a big thing that we teach in every single course tha twe give you if that is the, you know, the most critical aspect of your trading success.And if you‟re letting your feelings and -- and things drive, whether you gonna take atrade or not, then, you know, that‟s where you probably are going to fail, so -- because90% of the time, you are the cause of the errors. You, you know, you‟re just -- you‟rehesitant and then it starts going your way, you jump in, about the time you reach yourtarget, you know, thinking I‟ll get on board this really long trade and what does it do, so -- then of course, that‟s when you -- you packaged the box up and say this doesn‟t work,

but, I mean, I don‟t know what kind of system it is, but, you know, give it a -- a realaccurate test and, you know, if you find that it works, it will be successful, I mean -- soI've talked to -- I said to just about everybody out there and, you know, there are justsome people that they bought hundreds and hundreds of systems and, you know, they --when they finally come across one that works, that they like, they just -- they‟re ecstatic.So, again, don‟t, you know, don‟t keep shopping, settle down, find the one that‟s good,and then, you know, stick to it.

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Everybody was tied --I haven‟t thrown this one in here, but looking back at 2010, youknow, what I -- what I was doing in 2010, swing trading Forex, okay. I used the UltimateSwing Trader, the UST, I started calling a live trading oil for the Forex and probably it‟s -- the -- the account has tripled since February. Obviously it‟s, you know, now, it‟s not being said, part of that is because the account‟s grown and so we can take larger trades.

So, again, you must always have real expectations, you know, you start out with a smallamount. The key is we risk no more than 2% on any one trade and we have a fixed stop,so, you know, we -- we don‟t -- we don‟t generate these things and -- and these were alldone live. You know, you don‟t just generate these things with, you know, say ________ [1:22:17], we‟re going to triple your account in, you know, six months. It -- it just won‟thappen. You will grow it steadily -- slow and steady wins the race.

Day trading oil, gold and natural gas with HVMM, before I got involved with -- with NetPicks, I actually didn‟t even know the first things about futures, the Russell futures.And so that‟s kind of grown and grown and then, you know, it‟s like, hey, oil, it‟s a greatmarket, the [1:22:44] great market, they were bigger markets. They were ones that I

could necessarily participated then, but now, on the point where, you know, I love tradingoil. It has a movement and -- and pace and it was a -- it has been choppy, but, you know,again, they can fall on with -- with harder times, so that‟s why you got couple of themarkets. Gold has gotten a little choppy lately but it will usually do some nice breakoutson the short side certainly. You know, go -- it might go up $10 one day but it‟s down $40the next. But I am looking -- I'm long-term bullish on gold -- or bearish on gold -- bullish-- and it‟s gonna go up, so I -- that‟s another possible prediction.

Natural gas is a great market, very fast, excellent for trailing and you can keep reallysmall trails. I was doing that with all of HVMM. I moved SST in the fall. I still do someHVMM, but SST is excellent for the trailing which can really get you those nice moves.Put up a new trade plan for something, again, very simple like we talked about, just anafternoon trade plan. You know, you just put on one trade starting by 2:00 in theafternoon, see what happens and it‟s got a very nice one rate with natural gas, and that‟susing SST.

You know, back into the -- the Russell. I just usually have not had time in kind of thosedrag on, so, you know, it -- it‟s one of those things that if I got time, I will add it and I'veadded the swing trading for oil, and I ultimately swung traders excellent on stocks,features and everything, as well as the Forex and so, I'm actually doing -- we had a verynice alert today. I'll show you that briefly at the very end, you know, sending an alert andpick up a nice 63 cent, so it went.

So what‟s new for 2011? As you can see, there‟s way too many markets, okay. andthere‟s -- there‟s probably a lot of things that I would love to trade, but I just don‟t havetime. That‟s one of the reasons I've got down there that I -- I want to trade more stocksand options. I watch the signals all the time but I just don‟t have time to review, youknow, all the charts, all the things. So stay focused, keep it very simple, stick to a coupleof markets. I'm still day -- day trading oil and natural gas, moving to swing trading moreon gold, along with the oils and trading. This way, I could be done in about one or two

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hours in the morning, that‟s it. I don‟t have to worry about anything else, then I can tradenatural gas in the afternoon or maybe oil on the afternoon if I want. But, again, I do wantto trade some more stocks and options, thanks to that options course from Mike and Boband, you know, I -- I really would like to add silver, so if I can factor that into, you know,stay focused and -- and not worrying about too many markets, I will.

I'll show you the -- the oil trade. Very, very nice, plain and simple. It came at 7:19 in themorning. Even if you didn‟t get up that -- at that hour, you have plenty of time to pick itup. And, you know, what I've thought 50% or so, and it pulled back, took some heat, butyour stop is right down there at $0.64 trade again, your stop was down here at 33, andthen you were rewarded with a very nice trade. We typically like to go to the first targeton oil, just because you can have some larger trades, so, you know, otherwise, you‟recarrying two positions and so that will be a better $1,200 loss if it did lose. But it did goup to the second target, so -- I mean, it would have been very nice, you know, with thesecond target, but I try and keep it very simple. Most of the time it doesn‟t go on with thesecond target before it pulls back and we get back on board. That‟s it. Any questions,

Mark?

Mark Soberman: I -- there was a question on the SMS -- SMS alerts.

Ron Weiland: Oh, yeah.

Mark Soberman: How does somebody get on those?

Ron Weiland: Well, it‟s -- you can just, you know, you can send an e-mail to -- to me,[email protected] or [email protected]. That‟s part of a -- the ultimate swingtrader, Forex signal service which I have not called and -- and it will jinx me, so we‟re just doing extremely well here on 20/11. If the guys somewhere on -- we‟ll -- we‟ll --we‟ll -- we‟ll tell you that, you know, we‟re -- we -- we haven‟t -- haven‟t hit too manylosses, so -- if any, and, one way, it‟s very high. So, again, it‟s just the -- it‟s a signalservice I do in the evening about 5:00 in the afternoon, but one of those things is that I'llsend out typically one SMS alert a day on oil. And just again, [email protected], I canget you a link _________ [1:27:24] if I would, maybe some free -- free videos for you totake a look and see -- see what kind of service we got.

Mark Soberman: Great. All right, thanks, Ron, appreciate it. We got two more and thenwe‟re -- we‟re done which is, so far has been -- this fantastic information so -- Troy andthen we‟ll -- we‟ll do Mike and we‟ll wrap it up. So, TJ, you‟re -- you‟re up.

Troy Noonan: All right, sounds good, Mark. Mark, you want to just hand it off. I'm justgonna show some -- some charts and talk through some things I'm noticing.

Mark Soberman: Yeah, I should have it, I think.

Ron Weiland: Yeah, I send it to him.

mailto:[email protected]






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Troy Noonan: Yeah. Let me find -- all right, there we go. Let me know when you couldsee it?

Mark Soberman: Well, we see a thousand screens.

Troy Noonan: Okay, yeah. You might want to fit the screen. It‟s a pretty big monitor,my new Christmas present to myself.

Mark Soberman: And you tre -- you trade this all on real time at once, right?

Troy Noonan: Oh, yeah. Well, you know, the tortoise. It‟s the tortoise approach. Theseare all monthly charts.

Mark Soberman: Yeah, that‟s true. That‟s true. Okay, they are a good point.

Troy Noonan: So, anyway, before we start looking at some of the things I'm observing,

the few things I just want to point out, one is, you know, it‟s fun to predict what‟s gonnahappen in the future. It‟s very amusing. I get a kick out of -- like everyone else. But astraders, we‟re all living on the hard right edge of the chart and we know what it‟s likewanting and wishing for something to happen and then the reality is what ends uphappening. And we‟re either right or we‟re wrong, really doesn‟t matter, except that if,you know, it could hurt us if it‟s against our trade, so, you know, one of the things I'vecome to piece at or I've come to piece with, I should say, is I've -- I realize that, you knowwhat, I really don‟t know that much and I'm not gonna pretend otherwise. I'm just gonnahumbly admit that I don‟t know what‟s gonna happen and so, then I just move beyond itand I let the -- the charts just kind of tell me what‟s going on. Everyone has had somereally great information. I agree with Shane as far as price action has to be a majorcomponent to your decision making, the price action pretty much leads. That‟s the onlyleading indicator you really have as price.

Another interesting thing I want to point out is the -- the answer to the first poll questionthat -- that Mark put up. Everyone predicting what‟s gonna happen, is the market gonnago up, is gonna be flat, is gonna be down or whatever and some -- it was pretty muchsplit amongst all five categories, all five answers are pretty even split more or less andthat was kind of amusing to me. Five different opinions all dramatically different and it just goes to show that no one really knows, but what that also tells me is it‟s great for usas traders, I mean, that‟s what makes a market.

So here‟s what I think is gonna happen. The world is gonna continue to want to live beyond its means, okay? It‟s gonna continue to want to live beyond its means. I mean,let‟s face it. Most people ran out of month before they ran out of money and there‟s areal imbalance. I mean, the currencies that we use in our monetary systems are not reallyadequate to balance the way we want to live. They don‟t really hold value that well that‟swhy they were always going up, they‟re always going down, you know. No one can rallycontrol the value of currencies, governments can't and, again, that‟s a good opportunityfor us because prices are gonna continue to move up, they‟re gonna continue to move

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down, they‟re gonna -- gonna continue to befuddle everybody and so what you reallywant to have is a system that gives you an edge and then you just gotta manage yourmoney properly, very small amounts of money on each trade, so that if you‟re wrong,you‟ll still be in the game and you could take the next trade and be right on the next one.

So it‟s really important that you put your trading in context to your overall trading. If you‟re fretting the trade you‟re in, you‟re probably overtrading and that‟s not a goodthing because as traders, we have to take trades and if you‟re fretting the trade you‟re in,well, what about the next trade, what about the next trade. That‟s your big indicator thatyou have problems so you should back off „till you figure that out, okay? Your risk management, your money management, has to be one of the, you know, the -- the centralthemes to your trade plans and your trade decisions.

All right. So let me show you a few things at -- that I've noticed. You know, one otherthing I want to mention is that inflation is like the big lie that we‟re all fed each day bythe government, by the news everyday, no inflation, low inflation and it‟s all BS, they

take out the two things that matter most -- energy and food, right? And we all feel it, weall see those prices continuing to go up. Well, I did a little research for this webinar and Ilearned something very interesting and that is this: since 150, the se -- the consumer price index has increased about 3.9% a year, that‟s almost 4%. So if you use that as ameasurement of inflation, your money is eroding at about 4% a year, okay. Well, guesswhat? The spot crude oil market has gone up in value, talking about value, 6.5% per yearsince 1950. And so one of the things that tells me, if you‟re an investor then this is going beyond the realm of trading, I realized, but, you know, if you‟re parking long-termmoney, if you‟re trying to figure out what to do with your mone y, you have to figure outa way to fight against that 4% average annual inflation rate dating back to 1950. And myrecommendation would be to look -- to put your money in energy. Because what thestatistic is telling us is that energy is going to beat inflation. That‟s your hedge, okay. soif you need a hedge, look to -- look to park your money in energy. Just long-term, talkingbig picture here. All right. So I found that to be very interesting.

So let me -- these are monthly charts of a bunch of different markets and differentcategories. We were talking about the stock market obviously. That‟s everyone‟s maininterest, I would say because that pretty much reflects what‟s going on in the world prettyaccurately. This is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ E-mini and if you look at all themain E-minis that Russell that -- or the S&P, the YM, they‟re all kind of heading higher.The NQ, the pattern looks a little bit different but the, you know, this is the system I'dlike to use, the CSST, it‟s been in a long trade, a reversal long, adding on of the position,this is a monthly chart but what I want to point is how it‟s breaking out over a verypowerful key level on a monthly chart which is right here. This high was put in back in‟07 before the „08 financial debacle, that rippled through the world, and the -- this highwas put in at 2290 -- 2291 and currently, at this moment, we‟re breaking out -- the NQ isbreaking out above that key level, okay? So that is telling us something. And if you look at the S&P, for example, the S&P, its key level is quite a bit higher, it‟s up here. Okay,this is back in ‟07 also, if you kind of com -- want to compare apples to apples. It hasn‟tquite got nearly as high up to this key level, around the same date range, as the NQ.

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So it tells me that the -- the -- the NASDAQ tends to be the -- the leader, it‟s leading thecharge here, but we are in rally mode with the S&P, also getting into a long-term reversaland a way to add on to one‟s position, and I'm just taking their stand on SST strategy andapplying it to a monthly chart, not that I would be taking these trades, but you get a lot of

insight when you look at this on a big level. Okay, the YM also, the Dow E-mini --similar dynamic. But its key level is quite a bit higher. So it appears, for now, that thestock market‟s heading higher and that also correlates with what we‟re seeing with thequantitative using, what Brian brought up was very interesting and kind of points to someof my personal feelings. You know, inflation is -- is alive and well and you could see itin the commodities market.

Here is a quick look at silver, by the way, on the monthly chart. I mean, this is silver.Pretty amazing, right, and as the dollar‟s been weakening and weakening, we‟ve seeneverything else rising in value and that makes sense, right, because if it takes more va --more dollars to buy something, well, the price has to go up to compensate. Contrary ---

contrarily, if we look at 30-year T-bonds, right around when the quantitative easingstarted, look at how it‟s going down, down, down, down, down. Because what‟shappening is, the feds are buying the bonds and what‟s that do? When you buysomething, it -- it -- the price is going up, right, and that‟s pushing the yields down, okay?Let‟s flip over now. Now bonds are going down and that‟s reflective in all thecommodities going up. As -- as the dollar weakens, again, commodities are going up andthat‟s why the stock market‟s gotta go up, too, because the stock market is also -- it waslike any other widget, it‟s got value and if dollars are weaker, it‟s gonna take more dollarsto -- to buy the same amount of shares and stock and that‟s how I look at it. Okay.

So when in doubt, when you really want to see what‟s going on in the big picture, pull upyour monthly charts, fall back to your weeklies, you‟ll see similar patterns and, youknow, a lot of great things were said today. I don‟t want to speak too much and repeateverything that‟s been said already. We‟ve got a lot of great traders here at NetPicks. I --I respect everyone of them. I get new ideas from each and everyone of the coaches andsome of the members, too, come up with some really great stuff. My whole thing for2011 is just to remain open-minded, fleet-footed and -- and be ready to ditch an idea fornew idea if the new idea is proving itself to be what‟s happening at the right edge of thechart, „cause it‟s where -- it‟s where we all live as traders as on the right edge of the chartand you can't lose sight of that if you get too caught up into old beliefs and you -- youknow, you‟re -- you‟re stubbornly gonna get drawn down. You don‟t want to be thecaptain that goes down with the ship. You‟re better off jumping ship and getting on onethat‟s still floating and riding the wave. That‟s pretty much all I have, Mark. Yeah,that‟s it. That‟s --

Mark Soberman: Okay. No problem.

Troy Noonan: -- all I wanted to show you.

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Mark Soberman: That‟s great. So let me go ahead and move on to -- to Mike. Just kindof last little quick wrap up here. So, Mike, are you still out there? You‟re hanging therewith us?

Mike Rykse: Yea, I'm still here. Mark, can you hear me?

Mark Soberman: Okay. Yeah, you‟re fine. So do you want me to show your slide or --is that -- is that fine?

Mike Rykse: If you could pass to me, I didn‟t make some last minute changes so it‟s --

Mark Soberman: Yeah, okay. Well, yes. That was good. I'm gonna hand it right now.You got it.

Mike Rykse: All right. Just to make sure I have the right screen here. All right. If youcould let me know that that‟s coming up okay.

Mark Soberman: Yeah, looks good to me.

Mike Rykse: So you‟ve seen my PDF. Before I get into some of the -- the markets thatI'm looking to -- to trade here this year, I just want to -- to make a few quick points here.If you‟re like me, you‟ve been taking some notes throughout this presentation. There‟ssome great ideas and new markets that you might not have considered. What I want tomake a point of is make sure you‟re trading markets that fits your trading style, that fityour risk tolerance. I've been really preaching this over the past couple of years to -- tothe student I've been working with. Who might be a great market to trade? Some of thecurrencies might be fantastic, but if they don‟t fit your personality, it‟s not gonna work.So you want to make sure you‟re taking the time to find those markets that fit your risk tolerance. All right. As you can see here today, there are so many different options thatyou can look at. And that doesn‟t mean you have to trader four or five markets at anyone time -- just pick one or two and go with it. That way, you can execute your tradeplan flawlessly day in and day out.

All right. So what I'm trying to do for 2011 with my own trading. First, like everybodyelse, I'm not very good at making predictions. I don‟t really care what the market doeslong-term, I'm really just concerned with finding those markets that move consistently.All right. So I think commodities will continue to be good options to look at in 2011.crude oil, for me, I like to trade day crude oil. I'm still using HVMM, I'm using a rangechart of 6. Now, with this being said, I'm -- I'm really leaning towards more of a swingtrade approach in 2011. Day trading is great, it‟s exciting at times, but it can be verystressful. If you don‟t believe me, take a break from day trading for a couple of weeksand see the difference. And you don‟t realize it in the heat of the battle, how much stressit is, so I've really considered stretching out those time frames lower -- lower the stressinvolved to trading. Yeah, next, Mark, is gold and silver. I'm looking at these more of a-- a -- the swing trade. There‟s an ETS that -- that track these commodities, that providesome great opportunities to trade with options. So I'll talk about that more in a minute.

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So, like I said, I am extending my time frames out for more swing trading. Number one,less stress, you lower your trade costs. That‟s often overlooked. When you‟re activelytrading, throughout the year, you don‟t realize how big of an effect those trade costs canhave. You‟ve got your commission, your slippage that really adds up, so by swingtrading, by stretching out those time frames, you will lessen the effects of -- of the trade

cost. And then less screen time. Let‟s face it, no one wants to sit in front of the computer for eight hours a day and just trade, so if I can identify the -- the short periods of time,that are active each day, that‟s what I'm looking to do.

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