Outline
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1 Air Quality during the Sept. 2013 Houston DISCOVER- AQ Deployment and Preliminary Evaluation of NOAA CMAQ Air Quality Forecasts Kenneth Pickering, NASA GSFC Bryan Duncan, NASA GSFC Pius Lee, NOAA ARL Mariel Friberg, Georgia Tech James Crawford, NASA LaRC and the DISCOVER-AQ Observation Team 6 th Biannual AQAST Meeting – Rice University – January 15, 2014
description
Air Quality during the Sept. 2013 Houston DISCOVER-AQ Deployment and Preliminary Evaluation of NOAA CMAQ Air Quality Forecasts Kenneth Pickering, NASA GSFC Bryan Duncan, NASA GSFC Pius Lee, NOAA ARL Mariel Friberg, Georgia Tech James Crawford, NASA LaRC - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Outline
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Air Quality during the Sept. 2013 Houston DISCOVER-AQ Deployment and Preliminary Evaluation of NOAA CMAQ Air
Quality Forecasts
Kenneth Pickering, NASA GSFCBryan Duncan, NASA GSFC
Pius Lee, NOAA ARLMariel Friberg, Georgia TechJames Crawford, NASA LaRC
and the DISCOVER-AQ Observation Team
6th Biannual AQAST Meeting – Rice University – January 15, 2014
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Outline
1) Overview of meteorological and air quality conditionsduring the Houston DISCOVER-AQ experiment
2) Significant pollution episodes – aerosols and ozone
3) Air quality model forecasts available during Houstondeployment
4) Preliminary evaluation of NOAA CMAQ forecasts using DISCOVER-AQ P-3B aircraft data
Daily 1-Hour Max Ozone (ppbv) – All StationsSeptember 1st – 30th
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3020
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Daily 1-Hour Max Ozone (ppbv)
Ozo
ne (p
pbv) #1
#2#3
#4 #5 #6
#7
#8
#9
Relatively clean 3 flight daysModerate pollution 4Strongly polluted 2
< >
clouds, heavyrains, marine air
bay, sea breezesfollowing cold front
Daily 8-Hour Max Ozone (ppbv)September 1st – 30th
NAAQS: 75 ppbv 8-hr avg
Sites exceeding NAAQS 8 3
ConroeJonesForest
Texas City
La Porte
Seabrook
Air Monitoring Sites in Houston Region
1-Hour Ozone (ppbv)September 25th – 26th
25th 26th
La PorteSeabrookTexas City
Jones ForestConroe La Porte
Hourly PM2.5September 2nd – 26th
Hour
ly P
M2.
5 (ug
/m3 )
20
10
30
#1#2 #3#4
#5#6#7 #8 #9NAAQS: 35 µg/m3 24-hr avg.
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High AOD associated withagricultural fire plumes from Mississippi Valley.Back door cold frontpushed smoke overHouston.
No real impact seen insurface PM2.5.
Houston Aerosol Episode of Sept. 14, 2013
HourlyPM2.5(µg/m3)
Houston Aerosol Episode of September 14, 2013
HSRL-2 Extinction West Houston to Smith Point
P-3B Nephelometer & Absorption Photometer
West Houston
GEOS-5 aerosolforecast from00 UT 14 Sept.
Cloud cover
Extinction
AOD
GEOS-5 global model at0.25 deg. resolution; GOCART aerosols, CO, SO2;includes assimilation ofMODIS AOD
Run by Arlindo da Silvaat NASA/GSFC
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Univ. of Houston (Yunsoo Choi) WRF/CMAQ - 4-km resolution; NEI-2008 with MOVESWRF-Chem – 4-km resolution; NEI-2005
NOAA/ARL (Pius Lee)WRF/CMAQ at 12-km resolution; point and area emissions
projected to current year; MOBILE6 vehicle emissions
TCEQ (Mark Estes and ENVIRON)WRF/CAMx at 12-km resolution
Regional Air Quality Forecasts for Houston Deployment
NOAA Experimental CMAQ
CTM CMAQ v. 4.6
Driven by WRF-NMM meteorology
Intervals 48 hour forecasts from 06Z
Chemical mechanism CB05
Aerosol module Aero4
Emissions Anthropogenic: NEI-05; pt. & area sources projected to 2013Biogenic: BEIS-3
Domain 12 km horizontal resolution
Vertical coordinate NMM Hybrid (60L)
Radiation / Photolysis Lacis-Hansen Bulk
PBL Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) local TKE
Clouds Ferrier cloud water, graupel/ice
Convective cloud mixing Betts-Miller-Janjic Mass Adjustment
Land surface NOAH LSM
Galveston
Smith Point
Channelview
Deer Park
MoodyTower
WestHouston
Conroe
ManvelCroix
9/25
9/26
GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MCGulf Galv Bay
CMAQ got the right idea of high ozone over Galveston Bay area late in the day, but failed to capturethe early onset (by 12 – 1 PM) of the bay breeze and the magnitude of the effect on ozone. 12-km resolution insufficient to resolve bay breeze. CMAQ maximum ozone over Gulf not found.
Conroe
Galveston
GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC NW CR m/a
CMAQ very well predicted the ozone plume to the NNW of Houstonduring the afternoon
ConroeGalveston
CMAQ missedelevated O3 layer
Conroe profile well forecast
O3 maximumto NNW of Houston wellforecast
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Summary
The DISCOVER-AQ Houston campaign completed successful flights with both P-3B and King Air on nine days during Sept. 2013.
Much of the month characterized by low to moderate ozone. Two days (Sept. 25 and 26) with high ozone in parts of the region, following cold frontal passage.
One day with enhanced AOD as a result of agricultural fires in the Miss. Valley, but surface PM2.5 little affected.
NOAA CMAQ ozone forecast underestimated observations on Sept. 25 due to inability to resolve bay/sea breeze. Performed well on Sept. 26.
Forthcoming work:- More comprehensive NOAA CMAQ forecast evaluation- Retrospective fine-resolution CMAQ and WRF-Chem simulations- Statistical analysis of surface versus column observations
