Outliers

About men and women who do things that are out of the ordinary

The 10,000 hour rule- magic number of greatness

• University of Michigan had one of the most advanced computer programs in the world– The most famous student was Bill Joy– Voted most studious student in his school• It meant according to him ‘ no date nerd’

– Much of the software that allows us to access the internet was written by Joy• He rewrote UNIX and wrote java

Question?

Was it pure meritocracy . He says it is a combination of ability,

opportunity and some arbitrary advantage

• The closer Psychologists look at the careers of gifted, the smaller the role innate talent plays and the bigger the role preparation seems to play– Mozart , didn’t produce his greatest work until he had

been composing for more than 20 years – To become a Chess grandmaster, takes about 10 years

• To put in 10,000 hours on anything takes about 10 years

Back to bill joy

• Opportunities– He happened to go to the best school– This was the era when computer programs were created using

card board punch cards – He had the opportunity to practice on a time sharing system

instead of punching cards – Because the Michigan system happened to have a bug in it ,

he could program all, he wanted– Because the university was willing to spend money to keep it

open 24 hours , he could stay up all night – Because he put in so much effort, when he got the

opportunity to rewrite UNIX he was ready

•Michigan – programming 8 to 10 hours a day•Berkley – day and night • Add up all – 10,000 hours

• Learning: practice makes you perfect

Bill gates• Bill gates

– At the beginning of the seventh grade was sent to lakeside ( school for kids of elite)• This school had a computer club in 1968 • The school had a time sharing terminal

– Mothers of lakeside school had enough money to pay for the schools computer fees – one of the parents happened to work at c-Cubed ( someone had to check its code on

weekends)– Gates happened to find out about ISI, and they required a software for the payrolls – Gates happened to live within waling distance of Washington university

• It offered him free time between 3 am and 6 am in the morning– TRW called somebody called Pembroke to find out the best programmers. He knew only

Bill gates – All this gave Bill gates time to practice and become an expert – By the time he dropped out of Harvard he had done programming for seven consecutive

years. He was way past 10,000 hours – According to Gates only 50 kids in the entire world would have had this kind of

opportunity

1975

• Most important date in the history of the personal computer revolution was January 1975

• Magazine popular electronics ran a cover story on a super machine called Altair 8800– Do it yourself mini computer kit , you could

assemble at home

1975

• If you were too old in 1975, you are already with IBM making it difficult to make the transition to the new world

• The perfect age to be in 1975 is old enough to be part of the revolution. You should be 20 or 21 – Bill gates 1955 - – Paul Allen 1953 – Founder Microsoft – Steve Ballmer 1956 – 3rd richest in Microsoft– Steve jobs 1955 – Apple – Eric Schmidt 1955 – CEO Google

1975

• Bill Joy – 1954

• Founders of Sun Microsystem – Scott mcNealy 1954– Vinod Khosla 1955– Andy Bechtolsheim 1955

1860s & 70 s

• Greatest change in American History – Railroads – Wall street – Industrial manufacturing – Rules of traditional economy were broken

• How old were you when the transformation happened – Born in the 40’s – too young– Born in the 20’s – too old

1860s & 70 s1. Rockfeller – 1839 ( standard oil)2. Andrew Carnegie – 1835 ( Steel )3. Fredrick weyerhauseuser – 1834 4. Jay Gould – 1836 ( Union pacific) 5. Marshal Field – 1834 (6. George baker – 1840 ( rail road of NJ)7. Hetty Green – 1834 ( Bank)8. James Fair – 1831 ( Virginia mining)9. Henry Rogers – 1840 ( standard oil company)10. JP Morgan – 1837 ( general electric) 11. Oliver Payne – 1839 (Standard oil company)12. George Puliman – 1831 ( Pull man)13. Peter Arrell – 1834 (American Tobacco)14. Philip Armour – 1832 ( Armour refrigerator)

Beatles

• Came to USA in 1964 • In 1960 they were a struggling school rock band • Were invited to play in Hamburg, Germany – They were asked to play hour after hour to catch

the passing traffic • In Liver pool they played one hour session • In Hamburg, they played seven nights a week ,

8 hours a day

Beatles

• On their first trip they played 106 nights – – 5 or more hours a night

• In just over a year and a half, they played performed 270 nights

• By 1964, they had performed live an estimated 1200 times – Most bands don’t do that in their entire career

• They were close to 10,000 hours in 10 years • Their talent undeniable, but their extraordinary opportunities

made them prepare

Learning: Practice

Canada and Ice hockey

• In the elite group of hockey players – 40 % were born between January and Feb – 30 % April and June – 20 % between July and September – 10 % October and December

Canada and Ice hockey

• Nothing to do with Astrology • The eligibility cut of date for age- class hockey is january

1st .• A boy who turns 10 on Jan 2nd is playing alongside

someone who doesn’t turn 10 until the end of next year• At that age a twelvemonth gap in age represents an

enormous difference in physical maturity • He gets twice as much as someone who get left behind

due to Jan 1st date– By the age of 14, this extra practice gives him the edge

The trouble with Genuises

• ‘Knowledge of a boy’s iq is of little help if you are faced with a formful of clever boys’

• 1 vs 100 – 100 ordinary people who serve as what is called

‘mob’– 1 person , special guest has to answer them– Christoper langan – IQ 195 ( Einstein 150)

• Considered as the smartest man in USA

– When his winnings reached $2,50,000 • Says ‘ I will take the cash’ and walks away

The trouble with geniuses - 2

• Chris Langan– Started talking in 6

months – Taught himself to read at

3 years – Mother missed a

deadline to sign his financial aid form

– Pleads his case • Scholarship taken away

• Oppenheimer– Tries to poison his tutor– Pleads his case

• Sent to a psychiatrist

– Becomes scientific director of the Manhattan project

The trouble with geniuses - 2

• The particular skill that allows you to talk your way out of a murder rap or convince your professor to move you from the morning to the afternoon section– practical intelligence – Knowing what to say to whom – Knowing when to say– knowing how to say it for maximum effect

• Oppenheimer had both – general intelligence and practical intelligence

The trouble with geniuses - 2

• Oppenheimer – Raised in a wealthy

neighborhood – Son of an artist– Weekends spent in

country side– Summers in Europe

• Chris Langan– Home dominated by an angry

drunken stepfather

• As a child – Distrust authority – Be independent

• Never had a parent to teach him how to speak up for himself

The ethnic theory of plane crashes

• The loss rate for an airline like United Airlines in 1988 to 1998 was .27 per million departures – They lost a plane in an accident about once in

every 4 million flights • The loss rate for Korean aire – 4.79 per million departures– More than 17 times higher

Audit

• Flight crews were smoking on the tarmac – during refueling – In the freight area – When the plane was in the air– Crew read news papers thru the flight – Often with news papers held in such a way that if a

warning light came on it would not be noticed – Numerous procedural violations

• Korean president “ our country’s credibility is at stake’

Miracle

• Korean air turned itself around • Is today part of the Skyteam alliance • Safety record spotless since 1999 • 2006 won the Phoenix award

Miracle• In an overwhelming number of cases the plane is behind schedule , pilots

are hurrying • In 52 % of the crashes , pilot at the time of accident has been awake for 12

hours or more– Tired and not thinking

• 44 % of the time , two pilots have never flown together • ‘The whole flight deck design is intended to be operated by two people

and that operation works best when you have one person checking the other’ Chief engineer for safety at Boeing.

Avianca accident 1990

• Route Colombia to New York – Poor weather – 230 flights delayed – Flight was held up by the Air traffic controller three

times – Plane circled for a long time , an hour and a half

before it was cleared – The plane crashed in the real estate owned bu the

father of John McCnroe • Reason ‘Fuel exhaustion”