Out of the Carbon Trap -...
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Transcript of Out of the Carbon Trap -...
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Out of the Carbon TrapIt is easier to escape from the Carbon Trap,traditional Experts and the EU-Commission
believe
Em. O. Univ. Prof. DI Dr. Hermann KnoflacherTechnical University of Vienna
Institute of TransportationResearch Center of Transport Planning and Traffic
EngineeringGusshausstraße 30
1040 WienPhone: +43 (1) 58801 23123
E-Mail: [email protected]
The Size of the Trap
Is much smaller than assumed
Mechanical transport modes aredependent
on fossil fuelDependency about 97%
....but
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Correct view to the system
...traditional Transport View is incorrectto narrow
car orientednonmotorized system users not considered
Helplessness of Decision Makersis the result of their
Mythical Transport System Understanding
Effects of CTPEffects of CTP
Politicians x Experts x Administration
What is the outcome of the last decadesof EU CTP ?
More transport problems then everAccidentsAir pollutionUrban sprawlDecline of local shopsDomination of big corporations over citiesUnemployment etc. etc.
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ECTP stand with both legs firmly in the air....
Traditional transport believes
Growth of Mobility
Time Saving by increasing Speed
Freedom of Modal Choice
Traditional transport believes
Growth of Mobility
Time Saving by increasing Speed
Freedom of Modal Choice
Traditional transport believesTraditional transport believesTraditional transport believes
Growth of MobilityGrowth of Mobility
Time Saving by increasing Speed
Time Saving by increasing Speed
Freedom of Modal ChoiceFreedom of Modal Choice
Precondition for the Solutions:
UnderstandingTransport System
Behaviour
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Myth of growing Mobility
Motorisation
Number of tripsper person
and day
Motor car trips
1 trip = 1 purpose
Trips per person per day remain constant
the urban modesPedestrian -, Cycle-PT-trips
Motorisation
Trips per Person per day
Trips by carthe non-urban mode
Reality
All provisions were made for the new mode, the carwhich destroys the cities!
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Conclusion. Mobility
There is no „Growth of Mobility“in the System
Only a Shift from one mode to others is happening
The so called Growth of Mobility
.... comes from the Destructionof life-supporting Structures
of Villages and Citiesand local Economy
This was and is supported byLand-use and TransportationProfessionals and Politicians!
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Meaning of data
Data
Behaviour?
?
STRUCTURESBUILTFINANCE
ORGANISATION
2. Myth (Pillar): Time Saving from Speed Increase
All decisions for Investmentsfor faster Transport are based
on the assuption of Time Saving
If this would be real – societieshaving fast Transport Systems
must havePLENTY OF TIME
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Evolution of travel speed
6 – 8 Million years 200 years
Fascination by escalating speed in a momentof history of manking – and effortless at thesame time
This was to much for all professionalDisciplines the politicians and theSociety
Spee
d
Common methode to calculate „time saving“
ABS1
S2Speed: V2 > V1Distance LAB
Time saving: Δt = LAB.(S2 – S1)/S1xS2
Benefit= ΣΔt x money per time
CB-factor = Benefit/Cost > 1 (3)
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Nowhere on the globe a saving of travel time has beenobserved so far
Travel Time Budget is everywhere the same
No cars 500 cars/1000 pop and more
Pedestrian speed 50 km/h and more
Higher speed – longer distances!
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average house to house speed
Ave
rage
Tra
vel D
ista
nce
Pedestrian Cyclist
Citybus
Regionalbus
Car driver
Nachbarschaftsbeziehungen
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Increasing dependency on fossilfuel for (car) mobility
EU-Commission
....fatal Recommendations to Member States and Cities
„...remove Bottlenecks in the Transport System“„Privatize Public Transport“
.........
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Q = D x V
Q = D x V
-
+
+
+
Local measure
System effects Medium andLong term
short term
effects...if capacity is enhanced
The result Exponential Growth of Problems
„Cross Section View“ of traditional Traffic Engineering to solveBottleneck Problems by adding more lanes or improvingInformation for easier Car Traffic Flow with „ITS“ etc.
Schlachthausgasse and A 23
1977 1978 1988
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7.000
26.000 +80.000
What traditionalexperts forecast
..how the systemworks in reality!
before ..............after A23 .............. A23 10 years later
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Traditional form of solutions in 1st world
The Cabon Trap Symptom
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Calculation based on real system effects
• i
ABV1
V2V2 > V1Länge LAB ΣΔt = LAB.(V2 – V1)/V1xV2 = 0 = Nil!!
Benfit = ΣΔt x Money = Nil
Only costs and problems remain
Congestion – and Time Loss???
We can not save time in the transportsystem if we enhance the speed.
We can also not lose time in thetransport system e.g. congestion!
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Entwicklung der Stauzeiten in Klosterneuburg nach der Sperre der Buchberggasse
y = 160e-0,6931x
R2 = 1
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0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5
Day after congestion beginning
Del
ay in
Min
utes
1. Tag 80 Minuten
2.Tag 40 Minuten
3. Tag 20 Minuten
104. Tag 10 Minut
System behaviour is not understood!
World of taditional Traffic Experts
and Politicians = EU Policy
Reality of the World
If experts and politicians believe congestion is a transport problem they are away from reality.
Social acceptable congestion level
Apoplexy happen in the Brain – always!
Sheer Nonsense
don´t exist in the real world
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Dogma Nr 3: wrong image of the man
Freedom of modal choice
Since man has invented new means oftransport modes he is also ableto control and master them.
We park the car at home but requireto use the public transport.
If not – the people are punished byroad pricing, etc.
People and bees show the same behaviour
Distance to feeding place
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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Acc
epta
nce
[%]
Walking distance [m]
Curve Parameter Number of passengers
K a b B S
10 218.4 261.7426 0.4406 0.5133 2.38 136
11 117.8 225.7052 0.6913 0.9448 1.91 47
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Acc
epta
nce
[%]
Walking distance [m]
Curve Parameter Number of passengers
K a b B S
10 218.4 261.7426 0.4406 0.5133 2.38 136
11 117.8 225.7052 0.6913 0.9448 1.91 47
unattractive car-orientated environmentunattractive car-orientated environment
Bees
People
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Innovation of our civilisation cause effects on our oldest and most powerful levels of evolution
Source: Die Spaltung des Weltbilds, R. Riedl, 1985
Car-traffic
.Causes effectson this old andpowerful levelof evolution!
change of•Values •Structures•Culture
THE CARBON TRAP
Home
+ Parking
Working + Parking
Shopping + Parking
Recreation + Parking
Loss ofurban
activities
Acceptance function of cars Acceptance function of public transport
No chance forPublic transpo
Parking at home makePeople to car drivers
Parking at home and at destinations destroy all humanscale structures and activities – and the city
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Unification of car and man in deep levels of human brain addictedpeople, politicians, planners and experts
Virus – Effect of the car!
Car in the brain change theworld view
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Macht dies ein Fußgeher wird das als verrückt bezeichnet
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Fußgeher mit Gehzeug auf Parkplatzsuche
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..na endlich!
Aus den Augen – aus dem Sinn – Parken ist kein Problem!?
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...und grundlegende Rechtsansprüche und –begriffeStVO §1
The real experiment
The real experiment
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How to escape from the Trap?
Key for the Solution: New organisation of Parking
Housing and ...
Akzeptanzverteilungfür Aktivitäten
Akzeptanzverteilung fürÖffentlichen Verkehr und Auto
Parking in Garages
PT - Stop
+
+ work+ shoppingf+ leisure etc.
Precondition for a sustainable TP:
Equidistance to the Parking Place and thePublic Transport Stop (PP = PTS)
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...
+
Living and ...
Acceptance ofwalking
Acceptance functionof public transport
Parken
PT stop
+
+ workt+ shopping+ leisure etc
Garage
Freedom of Choice to escape from the carbon trap
Power of the trap diminish with the new structure
Äquidistanz bei Quelle und Ziel
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Heute Garagen in 500mäqui.attr
Garagen in 500mäqua. unattr
Garagen in 1000,Hst in 500 attr
Garagen in 1000,Hst in 500 unattr
Freedom
ExistingSituation
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Thank you very much foryour kind Attention!
