OUR JOURNEY TO A BETTER GAUTENG...Gautrain Key Success Factors 1.Political leadership and will...
Transcript of OUR JOURNEY TO A BETTER GAUTENG...Gautrain Key Success Factors 1.Political leadership and will...
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i-TransportandUATPConference20June2018
OURJOURNEYTOABETTERGAUTENG
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Introduction• GautengRapidRailIntegratedNetwork(GRRIN)networkisbasedonthefollowing:• ITMP25Study&GautengExecutiveCouncilapproval;• KPMG’sReportonSocio-economicimpactofGautrainI;• FormspartoftheNDP &thefocusoninfrastructuredevelopment;and
• ThesuccessofGautrainIin:• makingpublictransportamode-of-choice• DevelopingitasaPPPproject;and• Lessonslearnedandapplyingthisknowledge.
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InterventionsLandUseDevelopment1. Subsidisedhousingprovisionwithinurbancoreareas2. LandusedensificationinsupportofpublictransportStrategicPublicTransportNetwork3. Mainstreamingnon-motorisedtransport(NMT)4. Reinforcingpassengerrailnetworkasthebackboneofthesystem5. Extendingtheintegratedrapidandroad-basedPTnetworksFreightTransport6. StrengtheningfreighthubsRoadTransport7. Traveldemandmanagement8. Continuedprovincialwidemobility
GITMP25-YearIntegratedTransportInterventions
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GautengCityRegionReinforcementthroughthePassengerRail
NetworkDescription• RailisakeyformgivingelementoftheCityRegion.• Railmostappropriateonhigh-densitycorridors.• Facilitate andsupporteffortsofPRASAandGMAtoDevelopRailNetworkandServicesintoamodernsystemmeetingtheneedsofGauteng’spassengers.
• Developmajormodaltransfernodesatstations(includingNMT)
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AnewmodernGautengisinthemaking
• GautengPremier’sfirstStateoftheProvinceAddress– RadicallymodernisethewayGautengresidentsliveandwork
– Tenpillarsofradicaltransformation– Publictransportasaneconomicgrowthstimulant
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GautengPremier’s10StrategicPillars
1. Radicaleconomictransformation2. Decisivespatialtransformation3. Acceleratedsocialtransformation4. TransformationoftheStateandgovernance5. Modernisationoftheeconomy6. Modernisationofthepublicserviceandthestate7. Modernisationofhumansettlementsandurbandevelopment8. Modernisationofpublictransport(ofwhichrailisamode)
andotherinfrastructure9. Re-industrialisingGautengasourcountry’seconomichub10. TakingaleadinAfrica’snewindustrialrevolution
• TheGRRINprojectisakeypartofthe8th pillartherebyhelpingtheeconomyoftheprovinceandthecountry.
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PublicPrivatePartnership
• GautrainisaPPPProject• LeadingtoaConcessionAgreement• PPPProjectsonNationalandProvinciallevelsareregulatedbySouthAfricanPublicFinanceManagementActRegulations(TR16)
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GautrainLessonslearnt• GreenfieldsprojectriskvsBrownfieldsextension• Theoreticalvsactualdata• PPPStructurecoulddowithsomeamendment• GMAhasexcellentdataonridership,operations,CapexandOpexfromGautrain1
• LowerIRR’sshouldbeapplicableinfuture• TheTransportDemandModellingshouldbeimproved• Socioeconomicimpactsaresignificant• Publictransportisthecatalystforeconomicchange
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GautrainKeySuccessFactors1. Politicalleadershipandwill2. BuildonGautrainlessonslearned– what
workedandwhatdidn’t3. StickwithPPPbuttweakthemodel4. Partnerwiththebestwecan5. Leadtheeconomicdevelopmentandpublic
transportintegrationasaProvince6. FollowPFMA7. Continueeconomicandsocioeconomic
development
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GautrainSocioeconomicdevelopment(Construction)
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Gautrain’soperationsSocio-economicdevelopmentsuccess
Source:GMASEDreport2013/14financialyear
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Gautrain’soperationsSocio-economicdevelopmentsuccess
Source:GMASEDreport2013/14financialyear
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Problemstatement
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GautengSDFBasedApproachvs.CoreTransitIntervention(2037)
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2037Socio-economicDensityLowIncomewithExistingRailand
GRRINLowIncomePopulationDensity
JobDensity
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2037Socio-economicDensityMiddleIncomewithExistingRailand
GRRINMiddleIncomePopulationDensity
JobDensity
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GautengPopulationForecast2014 2025 2037
Population(Gauteng) 13000000 16800000 19100000
+3,8million +6,1million
FormalJobs(Gauteng) 4600000 6700000 8500000
+2,1m(+45%)
+3,9m(+84%)
FormalJobsCompoundedAnnual GrowthRate% - 3.5% 2.0%
AM PeakHourPerson Trips(Gauteng-allmodes) 2000000 2700000 3200000
+700000(+35%)
+1200000(+60 %)
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CurrentPeakHourRoadTrafficAveragespeed43km/hr• Assume• Allroadimprovements
currentlyplannedarebuilt
• 2037Averagekeyroadnetworkspeed reducesto23km/h(peakandcontra-peakdirections)spreadover3hours
• 10km/hinpeakhourifnopeakspreading
• LikecurrentLagosorNairobi.
IfwedonothingTravelspeedswithoutGRRIN2037
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GAUTENGON THE MOVE
19
36 VariousrouteoptionsconsideredAlignment length (km),
Property Impact,
Construction cost,
Environmental and heritage issues
Constructability in terms of accommodation of traffic, undermining, utilities and services and expected social impact.
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ConnectivityChallengesinCOJ:• Significantdelayisexperiencedatthefreewaycrossings
• *Source:GoogleMaps(AMPeakHourTraffic)
KeyConnectivityChallenges
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IntegratedPublicTransportSystemRapidRail/GautrainSpeedprofile: 160km/hOptimaldistance• 62– 75 kmPassengerperhour• 7,500– 20,000
GRRINIntegrationwithGautrainbus,GautrainTaxi,Taxi,BRTinCoT,EMMandCoJaspartoffeederanddistributionbusnetwork.
Harambee BRT AREYENGREAVAYA
GautrainFeederTaxi&Bus
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• TheproposedPRASA,BRTandRapidRailnetworksarecomplementaryintheirservices
CombinedPRASA.BRT&GRRINnetwork
LegendBRTPRASAGRRINGRRINFDBS
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GRRINEconomicsFindingsPhase1&2SummaryCBAresults– comparativeBCRanalysis>1positive
Comparative economic impacts for each additional stage of the future GRRIN programmeassuming operations start in 2026
(Present value, real prices, 2016, Rmillion, 8% discount rate)
Phase 1a Phase 2Sandton- Little Falls Soweto to Roodepoort
to Little Falls
Economic net present value (ENPV) R13,949 R18,615
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) 2.0 2.6
EIRR 13.8 16.6
• Ofthefiveroutesconsidered,theSoweto-Roodepoort-LittleFallsroutedeliversbyfarthehighestnetbenefitwithaneconomicnetpresentvalue(ENPV)of~R18.6bnandaneconomicinternalrateofreturn(EIRR)of16.6%.
• Howeverthisroutedoeshaverelativelyhighcapitalinvestmentrequirement(duetoextensivetunnellingworkrequired),itdeliversenormoususerbenefits- chieflyintheformoftraveltimesavingsforGautrainusers.
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SEDandBBBEE• Investigationdone• Gautrainlessonslearnttakenintoaccount•
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SEDtargetsforPhase1Economic DevelopmentAchievements
DevelopmentPeriod OperationalPeriod
Target Value Target Value
LocalContent 65% R16 8b 80% R6,1B
JobCreation 28997 7729
SkillsDevelopment 1,5% R388 million 6% R29 million
PreferentialProcurement:BlackOwnedSpend
15% R2525 million 40% R2455million
EnterpriseDevelopment 0,1% R25,9million 0,1% R5,1million
SupplierDevelopment 0,2% R51,8million 0,2% R10,2million
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TravelTimeSavingswhenGRRINisImplemented
Gautrain GRRIN• Soweto– Sandton
– Traveltimesaving(minutes):– 86mins
• Soweto– Randburg– Traveltimesaving(minutes):– 44mins
• Cosmo– Sandton– Traveltimesaving(minutes):– 46mins
• Fourways– Sandton– Traveltimesaving(minutes):– 9mins
SourceGMAData2015
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GautrainFundingStructure• ThethreespheresofGovernment≈88%• NationalDoRA:48.5%• ProvincialMTEF:21.1%• ProvincialBorrowings:18.6%
• RemainderofCAPEX/Infrastructurefundedthroughequityanddebt≈12%
– Long-termDebt:10%– Equity:2%
• ShortfallofPatronageGuaranteecoveredbyProvincialMTEFfunding
DoRA,48,50%
MTEF;21,10%
ProvincialBorrowing;18,60%
LTDebt;10%
Equity;2%
GAUTRAINIFUNDINGSPLIT
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AlternativeFundingAnalysis• AdditionalsourcesofAlternativefundingwereidentified
pertheDBSAreport(“GautengRapidRailNetworkExtension(GRRNE)FundingOptionsAnalysis”)
• Thepotentialcategoriesof“Alternative”revenue/fundingareasfollows:– TaxIncrementFinancing(TIR)(New&existingstations)– SpecialRatingAreas(SRA)(New&existingstations)– VehicleLicenseFee– AirportTax– SalesTax- VAT– PropertyAssetandManagementAgency(PropertyDevelopment)– StationAuctioning
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AlternativeFundingAnalysis• Theaccompanyingchartsquantifytheimpactof‘Alternative’fundingsourceson
theprojectfunding/financingsplit
ProvincialMTEF;27%
NationalDoRA;40%
PrivateSector;33%
DEFAULTFUNDINGINFRASTRUCTURESPLIT
ProvincialMTEF;12%
NationalDoRA;17%
PrivateSector;33%
AlternativeFunding;38%
ALTERNATIVEFUNDINGINFRASTRUCTURESPLIT
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AlternativeFundingAnalysis
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500
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ZARRe
al(R
M)
AlternativeFunding- DBSAReport
StationAuctioning
PAMA(Propertydevelopment)
SalesTax
Airport
CarLicense(AffectedMunics)
SRA
TIF
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ThankYou
WilliamDachsCOOGMA