Osdoba - Jan2009
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October 2008
The Future of the CityGetting our minds around a sustainable built environment
tao
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WHAT IF
every neighborhood needed no outside energyfor heating & cooling, produced a significant shareof its electricity & fresh water, managed all of itsorganic waste and sewage, produced significant
amounts of fresh foods, and was home to adiversity of wild species that thrive in urbanhabitat?
Super Blocks
EcoBlocks
EcoBlocks
EcoBlocks
Eco
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WELL, HOW DO WE DO THAT?
The greatest sustainability challenges are nottechnological or economic. They areinstitutional.
Dr. John RobinsonIPCC Lead Author; UBC
Myth
concern + best practice knowledge = action
Realityconcern + best practice + institutional capacity = action
Alex BostonHolland Barrs Planning Group
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THE THREE BIG LEVERS October 2008
Strong, forward-looking policies Energy & climate change Sustainable buildings & communities Land use & transportation - neighborhood & urban Economic inclusion & participation
Housing affordability World-class education & training
Engage community, connect collaborative networks Center of excellence - collaboration
Business networks Community engagement - social marketing linked to values
Mobilize new investment resources Public finance - innovation & leverage
Private - access to patient capital
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October 2008Building Sustainable Communities
From Green Buildings toSustainable Communities
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GREEN BUILDINGS October 2008
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BUILDING TO NEIGHBOURHOOD October 2008
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CITIES & CLIMATE
Cities are where the rubber meets thepavement on climate change.
Stephen KingManager, Strategic Resource Management
Halifax Regional Municipality
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WHAT ARE WE DOING?
2006 - Time to get serious
World will end in 2 to 3 generations, 72 per cent ofBritish Columbians fear, Vancouver Sun, Nov. 18th,2006
Daddy, did you do everything you could to stopclimate change?, Vancouver Sun, 2006
Nation Under Siege
Sea Level Rise at Our Doorstep
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NEW DIRECTIONS
Prevention & mitigation
Shift from 2012 to 2030/2050 goals
Ultimate goal of carbon neutral city
Infrastructure - adaptation & resilience Storms, surges, rising sea levels
Integrity of water & food systems
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POST-KYOTO ESSENTIALS
Climate protection in cities
carbon neutralbuildings
zero carbontransportation
complete, compact
communities
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PATH TO CARBON NEUTRAL CITY
Buildings
2030 Challenge [architecture2030.org]
thermal grid & building retrofits
Transportation
active transportation
electrification of urban mobility
Urban agriculture
set aggressive production target
transform public realm
Zero waste
neighborhood-scale systems
Social enterprise for food and zero waste
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Carbon neutral buildings
Existing buildings
New buildings
District energy
Comm/Inst/Ind
Residential - low
Residential - high
Regulatory
Incentives
Financing tools
Existing thermal infra
New, high density
New, low density
CARBON NEUTRAL BUILDINGS
GHG emission mgmt
Comm/Inst/Ind
Residential - low
Residential - high
Regulatory
Incentives
Financing tools
GHG emission mgmt
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Zero carbon transportation
Neighborhood-scale
City-scale
Regional-scale
Compact, complete neighborhoods
Maximum active modes
Ultra-efficiency flexible vehicles
Mobility infrastructure
Institutional reform
50% of freeway lanes to light rail
Car, parking stall taxes to finance transit
CARBON NEUTRAL TRANSPORTATION
Daily services mapping
Nhood-Nhood connections
Smart arterial network
Smart delivery & logistics services
Urban clean fuels program
Vehicle efficiency standards
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October 2008Building Sustainable Communities
Evolution of Scale
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HOW TO DO THIS? October 2008
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HOW TO DO THIS? October 2008
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HOW TO DO THIS? October 2008
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INVESTMENTS & INVESTORS October 2008
Abatementcost
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INVESTMENTS & INVESTORS October 2008U.S. mid-range abatement curve 2030
Source: Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?, Executive Report, McKinsey & Company, December 2007
0
30
60
90
-120
-220
-30
-60
-90
3.20
Cost
1.0 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.00.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.01.60.4 0.6 0.8
Residential
buildings Lighting
Commercial
buildings
LED lighting
Industry
Combined
heat and
power
Commercial
buildings
Combined
heat and
power
Commercial
buildings
Control
systems
Distributed
solar PV
Residential
buildings
Shell
retrofits
Biomass power
Cofiring
Industry
CCS new
builds on
carbon-
intensive
processes
Commercial
buildings
HVAC
equipment
efficiency
Solar CSP
Residential
buildings
HVAC
equipment
efficiency
Residential
water
heaters
Residential
buildings
New shell
improvements
Commercial
buildings
New shell
improvements
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INVESTMENTS & INVESTORS October 2008
U.S. mid-range abatement curve 2030
Source: Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?, Executive Report, McKinsey & Company, December 2007
0
30
60
90
-120
-220
-30
-60
-90
3.20
Cost
1.0 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.00.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.01.60.4 0.6 0.8
Comprehensive Building Energy
and Efficiency Package
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10 - 4 GOOD BUDDY! October 2008
What if Portland had a 20-year strategy to do energyefficiency retrofits & install clean, distribution energytechnology, district by district, and had $2 Billion
available to invest?
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HOW TO DO MORE, FASTER?
Create scale
Accelerate & deepen actionsNew tools to bridge finance gap
Enable through rate regulation
Tie to better performance
Reduce revenue riskRegional economic development
Connect to other policy goals
Critical role of cities
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AGGRESSIVE ACTION October 2008
Comprehensive Package Efficiency retrofits
Distributed generation
District infrastructure
Think like an investor ESCOs - work at scale, with financing
Go deeper, use patient capital & policies
Everything that can be done ~ ROI: 5% on 20 years
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10 - 4 GOOD BUDDY! October 2008
10,000 buildings per year over 20 years
$125,000,000 investment every year
Economic benefits $500,000,000 (based on relative multiplier impacts)
Ten-fold increase in efficiency activity, rapid escalation ofdistributed systems
Job creation substantial - 1,500 minimum per year
Targeted business development & investment attraction
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INVESTING IN A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY October 2008
Public sector
City bond finance tools, infrastructure orientation
State & Federal infrastructure incentive programs
Green jobs & workforce development programs
Who are the investors?
Private sector
Patient capital - long-term, risk averse, modest returns
Utility-grade investments
Pension funds, mission-driven investment
Early-stage, angel & venture capital
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WHAT IS IT, REALLY?
Shelter
Food & waterMobility
Respect
Comfort
ConnectionInteraction
Feedback
What does it mean to go native? ~ William
Ecosystem services ++
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NEW CHALLENGE
A central question for cities in the 21st Centuryrelates to getting to the smallest scale possible forachieving each element of the ecosystem services
++
EconomicalAdaptableResilient
EngagedSelf-generatingInnovativeNimble
=Sustainable
CommunityDevelopment
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WELL, HOW DO WE DO THAT?
Is Local Government designed to match our vision?
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WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
G R E A TGO O D TO
JimCollins
Why Some CompaniesMake the Leap
And Others Dont
Why Some CompaniesMake the Leap And Others Dont
EconomicalAdaptableResilientEngagedSelf-generatingInnovativeNimble
The next generation of local government needs toprovide scale-appropriate ecosystem services
++ Create a culture for:
RespectLearningAdaptation and change
Performance
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ENGAGING PEOPLE
Our challenges require a level of change that demands thatwe engage people in order to start making changes
Need to offer a positive vision of where we are headed,without getting tied into having all the answers
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Sustainability Destination
Cities can borrow what works here
Proof of concept
Destination for sustainability - region isalready becoming one
A place for learning
Focus on Cities
Cities need living laboratories to help
address emerging challenges
A platform for greater innovation in
the futureInvaluable complement to emerging
proposals
WHY A PRECINCT? October 2008
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STRATEGY FOR OUR ECONOMY
Portland & Multnomah CountySustainable Development Commission
PDX: The Worlds Sustainability Center
A blueprint for global leadership in sustainable economicdevelopment
Overarching message
Think beyond exports Clearly articulate an audacious vision
Dedicate appropriate resources
Key directions
Tap into emerging global demand Foster regional collaboration
Grow local foundation forinnovation
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VISION October 2008
Green Development Cluster
PDX Lounge & business network
Oregon BEST
Portland Plan and economic development strategy
Oregon Business Plan
Cascadia GBC Living Building Challenge, Pharos
Natural Capital Center, Living Building Center
Oregon University System Sustainability Learning
CenterPortland State Integrator, First Stop Portland,Incubator
Ecosystem Services Council
Portland BEST Business Center
Oregon Innovation Council
A Sustainable EconomyInclusive, Regenerative, Innovative
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WELL, HOW DO WE DO THAT? October 2008
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STRATEGY FOR OUR ECONOMY
Sustainable economic development
Renewable energy
Green buildings & development
Food systems & urban agriculture
Water conservation, efficiency, reuse
Biofuels
Clean power tech
Efficiency tools
District energy
Design & engineering
Materials, systems
Construction managemen
Rural & urban production
Processing & prep
Composing, soil mgmt
Technology & systems
Management tools
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ENGAGING PEOPLE October 2008
How do we spend our money?
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WHAT IF
Every neighborhood needed no outside energy for
heating & cooling, produced a significant share ofits electricity & fresh water, managed all of itsorganic waste and sewage, produced significantamounts of fresh foods, and was home to adiversity of wild species that thrive in urban
habitat?
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WHAT IF
Every neighborhood had master gardeners &community kitchens where people producedhealthy meals, taught people how to grow, cook &
store food, and managed every scrap of foodwaste?
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WHAT IF
There were no streets on the borders of schools,but rather areas for walking, biking, skateboarding,skating and little red wagons?
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WHAT IF
The city had its own inexpensive, modular andmoveable temporary housing units that couldensure every person had shelter and safety?
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WHAT IF
Private property owners could reduce their property
taxes by half or more by:
Leasing yard space for neighborhood food growing? Producing more energy & water than they need?
Contributing to neighborhood affordable housing &mentoring services?
Actively participating in neighborhood barterprograms?
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WHAT IF
Neighborhoods had the ability to retire some of theirstreets?
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HERES TO THE FUTURE!
Thanks very much!!
October 2008
tao strategies
503.883.1529
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
