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Post-Collapse Planning

Dmitry OrlovASPO 2011

Hubbert Curve is not lopsided enough The general symmetrical shape is familiar by

now. But it is misleading when applied to all ofEarth

Gradual decline after peak is accurate forcountries that can call on resources from the

rest of the world USSR couldn't do that, and collapsed in 1990,~3 years after hitting its Peak Oil

USA would have collapsed in 1973 or 1974 World economy should collapse within a

decade after global Peak Oil (no other planetsare there to rescue us)

Planet Earth Cannot Im ort Oil

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A very simple model

A very simple model

Rate of resource extraction is proportional to thesize of the economy and the size of the resourcebase:

r = k * R * E

This model isn't accurate post-peak withoutimports, because it doesn't provide for fossil fueleconomy's costs: pollution, bureaucracy,complexity, diminishing EROEI, etc.

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A more realistic model

A more realistic model

Prof. Ugo Bardi's Seneca Cliff model; still verysimple, reproduced using a spreadsheet

Assumes that about a third of the resourcesgets diverted to the pollution category

Still misleading, because it assumes continuity:pollution dissipates gradually over time In reality, complex systems do not gradually

decomplexify; they collapse (Joseph Tainter) Collapse is more of an event than a process

(for most people)

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Planning for post-collapse

Post-collapse solutions do not work prior to

collapse (non-competitive) Ambitious projects are impossible to improvise

after collapse (supply chains broken,transportation and commerce at a standstill,etc.)

Basic needs: food, shelter, transportation,medicine, security

A reasonable approach is:

Prepare But Do Not Execute

Best-case scenario

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Best-case scenario

Shortly after Peak Oil occurs, people start

planning, setting aside supplies, recruiting andtraining

Once the fossil fuel economy crashes, peoplestart executing on these plans

Economy quickly reboots into a new operatingsystem that has much lower resourcerequirements for meeting basic needs

Best-case scenario

PeakOil

Collapse

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Peak Oil may be hard to detect

Are wethere yet?

Are wethere yet?

Are wethere yet?

Interim activities

Counterproductive

Accumulatefinancial assets

Make debt

payments Look for a job Protest, lobby, vote Pretend that

Everything will beall right

Productive

Plan Recruit Train

Educate Stockpile Provide support Rest

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Deciding when to pull the rip-cord

Collapse may mean different things to different

people Too early, too late: equally bad Official statistics are misleading Local metrics of societal well-being (or lack

thereof) may be more useful Need to start before the situation ceases to be

survivable for a large chunk of the population

The case for post-collapse investing

No good places to put (smart) money If you have $100M and think that there is a 1%

chance of collapse, invest $1M in post-collapse A well-stored inventory of durable supplies will

not depreciate Can be seen as a hedge against supply chaindisruptions

Overall, a low-risk proposition: investmentretains value both pre- and post-collapse