Orlando MSA Market OverviewJuly 2015

Orlando MSA Market Overview

Overview Labor Market Payroll Employment Commercial Real Estate Residential Real Estate Consumer Spending Business Sentiment Transportation Visitor Industry

Labor Market

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Unemployment RateThrough May 2015, Seasonally Adjusted

Orlando MSAUnited States

May 2015 (NSA)Orlando MSA: 5.2%United States: 5.3%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Orlando’s unemployment rate has been below the national rate since early 2013. However, gains have largely flattened in recent months as improving job prospects begin to encourage people to rejoin or enter the labor force.

Labor Market

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando MSAThrough June 2015, 12-Month Moving Average

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center

June 2015: 4,2572015 YTD: 21,087 (-7.7%)

New claims for unemployment insurance are

normalizing at a 12-month moving average of 3,987.

Labor Market

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

July August September October November December January February March April May June

New Job Postings, Orlando MSAThrough June 2015, Y/Y % Change

Source: WantedAnalytics

Year-to-date labor demand in the region, measured by new online job postings, increased 6% year-over-year in June.

June 2015: 25,959 (0.0%)2015 YTD: 159,991 (6.3%)

Payroll Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hundreds Total Payroll Employment, Orlando MSAThrough May 2015, Seasonally Adjusted

Nov ’07 – Jan ’10103,700 jobs lost

Jan ’10 - Present167,300 jobs regained

In purely employment terms, Orlando’s job

market has fully recovered. In early

2014, the region became the first major

MSA in the state to regain all jobs lost

during the recession.

Payroll Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

-8

-4

0

4

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Change in Payroll EmploymentThrough May 2015, Y/Y % Change, Seasonally Adjusted

Orlando MSA United States

Local year-over-year job growth has exceeded the nation’s rate for 43 consecutive months.

Payroll Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Employment Growth, Orlando MSAThrough June 2015, Y/Y % Change, 3-Month Moving Average

Not Seasonally Adjusted

RetailFinancial ActivitiesLeisure & HospitalityConstructionBusiness ServicesHealthcareManufacturing

All major sectors are on a positive

trajectory.

Payroll Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

% Change in Payroll Employment, MSAs > 1 Million JobsMay 2014 – May 2015, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Current year-over-year employment growth of 4.0% is third among the 30 MSAs with an employment base of over 1 million jobs.

Rank MSA % Change

1 San Jose, CA 5.7%

2 Riverside, CA 4.1%

3 Orlando, FL 4.0%

4 Seattle, WA 3.7%

5 Dallas, TX 3.4%

6 Charlotte, NC 3.3%

7 Atlanta, GA 3.2%

8 San Diego, CA 3.2%

9 Denver, CO 3.1%

10 Miami, FL 3.1%

Payroll Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

1,400

-100

13,000

3,700

8,200

3,800

-200

1,500

6,500

4,400

900

4,100

1.3%

-0.3%

5.6%

2.8%

4.4%

5.4%

-0.8%

4.7% 4.8%

10.4%

2.3%

7.4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-1,000

2,000

5,000

8,000

11,000

14,000

Gov. Oth. SvcsLeis/Hosp. Health Bus. Svcs Fin. Svcs Inform. Whse/Util. Retail Wholesale Mfg Const.

Job Gains by Industry, Orlando MSAJJune 2014 – June 2015, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Net Job Gain (left axis)

Y/Y % Change (right axis)

TOTAL GAIN: 47,200

Of the 22 metros in Florida, Orlando

reported the largest over-the-year gains in May in absolute terms

(+47,200 jobs). The region’s recovery is

evolving and employment gains are

now proving more broad-based.

Payroll Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

ORLANDOJacksonville

Tampa

Fort Lauderdale

West Palm Beach

Miami

Melbourne

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 1 2 3 4 5

3-Month % Change (annualized)

Year-Over-Year % Change

Employment Momentum by Florida MSA/MDMay 2015, Seasonally Adjusted

Size of Bubble = Relative Employment Base

EXPANDING

CONTRACTING

IMPROVING

SLIPPING

The region is showing positive employment momentum in the second quarter of 2015 and continues to outperform on long-term momentum.

Commercial Real Estate

Source: CBRE

20.1%

19.0% 19.1%19.4%

19.0%

16.9%

$20.02

$19.72 $19.60 $19.62

$19.98$20.15

$18

$19

$20

$21

15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q2 2015

Office Market, Orlando MSAThrough 2nd Quarter 2015

Total Vacancy (left axis)Average Direct Asking Rate (FSG, right axis)

Net Absorption2011 = 545,6232012 = 302,1102013 = -133,2552014 = 74,0002015 YTD = 806,734

Orlando’s office market fundamentals

continue to strengthen; net

absorption of 614,000 square feet in the second quarter of

2015 represented the market’s highest in

eight quarters.

Commercial Real Estate

Source: CBRE

15.8% 15.6%

13.2%

11.7%

9.9%9.5%

$5.35$5.23 $4.94 $4.97 $5.21 $5.37

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q2 2015

Industrial Market, Orlando MSAThrough 2nd Quarter 2015

Total Vacancy (left axis)Average Direct Asking Rate (NNN, right axis)

Net Absorption2011 = -51,626

2012 = 2.9m2013 = 1.4m2014 = 1.8m

2015 YTD = 2.1mDelivery and occupancy of a 1 million-square-foot Publix Distribution Center in Southeast Orange County propelled the industrial market to year-to-date net absorption of 2.1 million square feet. Overall vacancy continues to decline.

Residential Real Estate

Source: Orlando Regional Realtor Association

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

12-Month Moving Average

Y/Y % Change3-Month Moving Average

Home Sales vs. Median Home Price, Orlando MSAThrough June 2015

Median Sales Price (left axis)Homes Sales (right axis) Home sales have an

opportunity over the next 12 months to

settle into a pattern of more traditional

growth as the impact of both institutional

investment and distressed sales

wanes.

Residential Real Estate

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Housing Permits, Orlando MSAUnits Authorized, Through May 2015

12-Month Moving Average Annualized Rate

Single-Family Units

Multi-Family UnitsReports of a construction bubble appear premature. Although multi-family permitting is on the rise, total activity remains below historic norms.

Consumer Spending

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201550

70

90

110

130

150

Orlando MSA Retail Index vs. Florida Consumer ConfidenceThrough April 2015

Florida Consumer Confidence (left axis) Orlando MSA Retail Index (right axis)

Tourism & Recreation: +11.0% YTDConsumer Non-Durables: +3.7%YTD

Consumer Durables: +3.0% YTD

Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic & Business Research; Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research

Buoyed by strong tourism gains,

consumer spending in the region is

outperforming statewide consumer

confidence.

Business Sentiment

Source: Florida Department of Revenue

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Taxable Sales – Business Investment, Orlando MSAThrough April 2015

Y/Y % Change, 3-Month Moving Average

2014 YTD: $2.56 billion2015 YTD: $2.71 billion

Renewed confidence among local business in the future is also evident. Year to date, local business investment (in equipment and technology, for example) is up 5.9%

Transportation

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

June July August September October November December January February March April May

Passengers - Orlando International AirportThrough May 2015, Y/Y % Change

DomesticMay 2015: 2.9 million (+5.7%)

2015 YTD: 14.3 million (+6.9%)

Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority

Passenger traffic through Orlando

International is up 7.7% year-to-date.

International traffic is up 13.7% year-to-

date, driven by new service from Azul,

Silver and SunwingAirlines.

InternationalMay 2015: 0.4 million (+13.8%)

2015 YTD: 2.0 million (+13.7%)

TOTALMay 2015: 3.3 million (+6.6%)

2015 YTD: 16.3 million (+7.7%)

Transportation

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

June July August September October November December January February March April May

Passengers - Orlando Sanford International AirportThrough May 2015, Y/Y % Change

May 2015: 210,697 (+12.3%)2015 YTD: 1,003,846 (+10.6%)

Source: Sanford Airport Authority

May 2015 marked the eighth consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in passengers through Orlando Sanford, increasing 12% from May 2014.

Visitor Industry

Source: Visit Orlando

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

June July August September October November December January February March April May0

2

4

6

8

10

Hotel Occupancy vs. Average Daily Rate, Orlando MSAThrough May 2015, Y/Y Change

Hotel Occupancy (left axis, pp)Average Daily Rate (right axis, % change)

May 2015Occupancy: 74.9% (+3.4pp)

ADR: $105.93 (+3.7%)In late March, Visit

Orlando announced that Central Florida

retained its title as the most visited

destination in the country with over 62

million travelers in 2014. Gains in both

hotel occupancy and average daily rate

continue.

Business Intelligence

Business.Intelligence@OrlandoEDC.com