LAST UPDATED: June 25, 2020Phoebe Fleming, Director of Research

ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW*COVID-19 SPECIAL EDITION*

Orlando MSA Market Overview – COVID-19 Special Edition

• The National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the US economy in a recession on Monday, June 8. Starting in February, this recession ends a decade long period of economic expansion and the longest in recorded US history.

• This special edition of the Orlando MSA Market Overview analyzes select, high-frequency, labor market indicators, published with a one-month lag, that will signal worsening or better employment outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.

orlando.org/covid19

orlando.org/covid19

High Frequency Indicators to Watch – Orlando MSA

Unemployment Rate

Monthly

New Claims for Unemployment

Insurance

Weekly

Month to Month Job Change

Monthly

22.6%+5.8pp MoM

11,307 -24.7% WoW

Week of June 13May

-57,200-4.9% MoM-16.4% YoY

April-May

Weekly

6,221+8.64% WoW

June 20

Source: US Dept of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass

1. 2. 3. 4.

Week to Week Job Postings

22.6

13.3

16.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May

Rate

Unemployment Rate, NSA2019-2020

Orlando USA USA Possible Rate

orlando.org/covid19

1) Unemployment Rate

Source: BLS, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: June data released July 2 (USA) and July 17 (Orlando)

Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for May is 13.3% with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggesting it should be 3 points higher due to a misclassification of “absent” workers. The noted, possible rate from the BLS is included on the gray, dashed line.

14.5

20.6

23.2

31.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May

Rate

Unemployment Rate, NSA2019-2020

Seminole Lake Orange Osceola

orlando.org/covid19

1) Unemployment Rate - Counties

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: June data released July 17

orlando.org/covid19

2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Source: US Dept of Labor

Next Update: Data released weekly

251,416

6,211,406

2,356,626

1,457,373

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1/4/2020 2/4/2020 3/4/2020 4/4/2020 5/4/2020 6/4/2020

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, USAJan. 2020- June 20,2020

6,463

228,484

506,670

207,707

93,394

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1/4/2020 2/4/2020 3/4/2020 4/4/2020 5/4/2020 6/4/2020

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, FloridaJan. 2020- June 20,2020

orlando.org/covid19

2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: Data released weekly

35,595

2,756

56,030

20,855

36,453

21,782

28,548

15,020

11,307

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando MSAMarch 7- June 13, 2020

Weekly Data 3 Week Moving Average

Note: Cumulative claims for unemployment insurance from March 7 – June 13 are 332,430 (25% of the labor force). This is not the same number as the unemployment rate.

orlando.org/covid19

2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando Counties, March 7 – June 13, 2020

Orange Osceola Seminole Lake

orlando.org/covid19

2) Cumulative Initial Claims for Unemployment By County: March 7 – June 13

Lake County Orange County Osceola County

32,307 20% of

Labor Force

195,092 64,186

Seminole County

40,845

Source: FL DEO

26% of Labor Force

35% of Labor Force

17% of Labor Force

800

-300 -200

300 2,300 100 1,4004,900 3,400

-70,600

3,300

-2,600

(80,000)

(70,000)

(60,000)

(50,000)

(40,000)

(30,000)

(20,000)

(10,000)

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10,000

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1- Month Change in EmploymentApril-May 2020 (Not Sesonally Adjusted)

orlando.org/covid19

3) Month to Month Job Change - By Industry

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: May data released July 17

4) Job Postings – Time Series Analysis

orlando.org/covid19

7,884 7,856

5,303

4,736

4,226 4,219

3,507 3,718

4,634 4,281 4,107

5,475 5,4795,726

6,221

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Total Online Job AdsOrlando MSA, by Week Posted

Source: Burning Glass

4) Job Postings – Top Jobs in Demand

orlando.org/covid19 Source: Burning-Glass

1,961

1,823

1,637

1,407

1,184

1,140

1,119

1,101

908

794

757

751

714

681

653

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Sales Representative

Retail Sales Associate

Registered Nurse

Customer Service Representative

Software Developer / Engineer

Physician

Retail Store Manager / Supervisor

Tractor-Trailer Truck Driver

Office / Administrative Assistant

Building and General Maintenance Technician

Security Officer

Food Service Team Member

Laborer / Warehouse Worker

Restaurant / Food Service Manager

Insurance Sales Agent

Jobs in Greatest DemandOrlando MSA, Last 90 Days Ending June 25, 2020

4) Job Postings – Top Employers

orlando.org/covid19 Source: Burning Glass

777

469

410

349

341

336

307

246

193

182

179

172

168

130

128

0 200 400 600 800

Lockheed Martin Corporation

Adventhealth

Anthem Blue Cross

Orlando Regional Healthcare

Lowe's Companies, Inc

Orange County Public Schools

Marriott International Incorporated

Deloitte

School District Of Osceola County

Dollar General

Walmart / Sam's

CVS Health

Healthcare Travelers

Hospital Corporation of America

Brookdale Senior Living

Employers With Most Job OpeningsOrlando MSA, Last 90 Days Ending June 25, 2020

orlando.org/covid19

Key Takeaways• The Orlando unemployment rate soared to 22.6 percent from April to May, representing 300,700 unemployed

persons currently in the labor force (slide 4 and 5). For context, the US reached an unemployment rate of 24.9 percent during the Great Depression. Orlando currently has the highest unemployment rate of any metropolitan area in Florida, followed by the neighboring Lakeland MSA with a rate of 19.1 percent.

• New claims for unemployment insurance have been dropping from their weekly peak in late April, both nationally and in Florida. However, the number of new claims does not seem to be returning to pre-pandemic levels, instead bottoming out at 1.5M (US) and 93K Florida in the most recent weeks (slide 6). This signals continued impacts from COVID-19 beyond just the spike seen during the height of shutdowns. Now, as economies reopen, there are still new claims for unemployment insurance being submitted.

• Small signs of good news appear in increasing employment in certain industries (slide 10) where last month not a single industry grew. Increases in employment appeared from April to May in retail trade, business services, education and healthcare, construction, and financial activities etc. The Leisure and Hospitality industry continues to see employment declines, decreasing overall employment by 59 percent year-over-year. This industry includes restaurants, bars, museums, hotels, theme parks etc.

• Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. Job posts declined sharply in late March and stayed down throughout April. At the end of May, job posts began to increase, signaling tentative, returning strength to the job market as the region began to reopen. The most recent week shows an increase in the number of active posts. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze. Top job posters are mainly in the healthcare space, along with defense and public education.