ORLANDO - kendrick-ross.com · Information 1.8% -300 -1.1% National Ranking Out of 98 Markets 1...

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ORLANDO MULTIFAMILY RENTAL TRENDS SUPPLY/DEMAND EMPLOYMENT ANALYTICS JULY 2018

Transcript of ORLANDO - kendrick-ross.com · Information 1.8% -300 -1.1% National Ranking Out of 98 Markets 1...

  • ORLANDOMULTIFAMILY

    RENTAL TRENDSSUPPLY/DEMANDEMPLOYMENT ANALYTICS

    JULY 2018

  • SUPPLY

    RENTAL TRENDS

    DEMAND

    Employment Sector Current Share YOY Change

    Leisure and Hospitality 19.9% 11,200 3.9%

    Education and Health Services 12.9% 8,500 4.6%

    Professional and Business Services 17.3% 7,600 3.0%

    Mining, Logging and Construction 6.3% 6,100 6.9%

    Manufacturing 4.9% 4,300 6.3%

    Financial Activities 5.8% 3,700 4.5%

    Other Services 3.6% 2,100 4.0%

    Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 18.1% 2,100 0.8%

    Government 9.5% 600 0.4%

    Information 1.8% -300 -1.1%

    National RankingOut of 98 Markets 1RentGrowth 8 EmploymentGrowth 18 Completions [+1]

    Inventory by Property Status# of Properties

    843Completed

    205,378 Units

    47Under Construction

    12,345 Units

    39Planned

    12,070 Units

    97Prospective

    19,952 Units

    ORLANDO MULTIFAMILY JULY 2018

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  • HIGHEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS LOWEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS

    Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

    Conway $1,288 96.7% 13.9%

    Pine Hills $870 99.1% 12.7%

    Oak Ridge - west $1,380 94.4% 11.7%

    Lake Catherine $1,049 93.9% 10.9%

    Lake Richmond $1,202 96% 10.8%

    Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

    Clermont $1,336 94.5% 2.0%

    Lake Mary $1,391 95.5% 0.6%

    Elder Springs $1,050 97.7% 0.4%

    Holden Heights $1,065 - -0.1%

    Downtown Orlando $1,657 93.7% -0.6%

    HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKET - CONWAY

    SUBMARKETS YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH

    Properties 6

    Units 1,608

    Average Rent/Unit $1,288

    Effective YOY Chg 13.9%

    RENTAL RATE CHANGE BY SUBMARKET JULY 2018

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  • LIFESTYLE APARTMENTS - YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH RENTERS-BY-NECESSITY APARTMENTS - YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH

    HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - LIFESTYLE HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - RBN

    Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

    Conway $1,258 95.4% 15.3%

    Florida Center North $1,466 98.2% 13.8%

    Oak Ridge - west $1,519 93.2% 13.1%

    Lake Catherine $1,443 94.1% 12.1%

    Gotha/Orlovista $1,417 96% 12.0%

    Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

    Pine Hills $855 99.1% 13.7%

    Conway $1,324 98.2% 12.3%

    Titusville $791 95.8% 12.0%

    East Kissimmee $1,184 96.8% 11.7%

    Kirkman $1,236 94% 11.5%

    LOWEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - LIFESTYLE LOWEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - RBN

    Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

    East Kissimmee $1,398 96.6% 3.9%

    Weathersfield $1,337 94.5% 2.1%

    Lake Mary $1,428 95.9% 1.6%

    Clermont $1,374 94.2% 1.6%

    Downtown Orlando $1,784 93.5% -0.8%

    Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

    Lockhart $984 96.2% 2.0%

    Elder Springs $859 98.1% 1.5%

    Downtown Orlando $973 94.4% 0.3%

    Lake Mary $1,271 94.6% -3.1%

    Oviedo $1,594 98% -4.3%

    CONWAY PINE HILLS

    Lifestyle RBN Overall

    Properties 3 3 6

    Units 870 738 1,608

    Avg Rent/Unit $1,258 $1,324 $1,288

    Effective YOY Chg 15.3% 12.3% 13.9%

    RBN Lifestyle Overall

    Properties 6 1 7

    Units 1,313 64 1,377

    Avg Rent/Unit $855 $1,175 $870

    Effective YOY Chg 13.7% 1.1% 12.7%

    RENTAL RATE CHANGE BY SUBMARKET AND ASSET QUALITY JULY 2018

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  • OVERALL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

    PROJECTED COMPLETIONS AS % OF PRIOR INVENTORY - 12 MONTHS ENDING JUNE 2019Submarket Growth # Units

    Winter Park/Maitland 72.2% 1,741

    West Kissimmee 39.5% 1,616

    Longwood 28.9% 641

    Florida Center 16.2% 344

    Downtown Orlando 12.8% 725

    Holden Heights 12.1% 200

    Lake Buena Vista 10.5% 632

    Colonial Town 8.7% 356

    Pine Hills 8.4% 205

    Goldenrod 7.8% 332

    Hunter's Creek 6.6% 444

    + 13 More Submarkets 2,862

    Market Overall 4.6%10,098 Units

    National RankingOut of 98 Markets

    12,345 Units

    12Lifestyle [+2]

    11,471 Units

    30Renters-by-Necessity [+25]

    874 Units

    15Overall

    SUPPLY JULY 2018

    TOP DEVELOPERS BY UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONLARGEST COMMUNITIES UNDER CONSTRUCTIONDeveloper # Units # Props

    Pollack Shores 723 3

    Brel Capital 703 2

    ContraVest 660 2

    Integra Land Company 660 2

    Real Estate Inverlad 630 1

    LeCesse Development 612 2

    Related Group 399 1

    Altman Companies 382 1

    Crescent Communities 375 1

    Cornerstone Group 356 1

    Project Address # Units Developer

    Yard at Ivanhoe, The 1605 Alden Road Orlando, FL 32803

    630 Real Estate Inverlad

    M2 at Millenia 4206 Eastgate Drive Orlando, FL 32839

    403 Brel Capital

    Town Trelago 1070 Maitland Blvd Maitland, FL 32751

    399 Related Group

    Altis Shingle Creek 4350 Osceola Trail Road Kissimmee, FL 34746

    382 Altman Companies

    Novel Lucerne 733 Main Lane Orlando, FL 32801 375 Crescent Communities

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  • LIFESTYLE DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY RENTERS-BY-NECESSITY DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

    PROJECTED RBN COMPLETIONS AS % OF INVENTORYPROJECTED LIFESTYLE COMPLETIONS AS % OF INVENTORY

    Submarket Growth # Units

    Winter Park/Maitland 221.2% 1,741

    West Kissimmee 144.9% 1,316

    Longwood 141.8% 641

    Goldenrod 39.2% 332

    Florida Center 23.7% 344

    Downtown Orlando 17.2% 725

    Lake Buena Vista 13.3% 632

    Vista Park 10.7% 312

    Colonial Town 10.0% 356

    Hunter's Creek 9.6% 444

    Oak Ridge - west 9.5% 403

    + 11 More Submarkets 2,264

    Market Overall 9.3%9,510 Units

    Submarket Growth # Units

    Holden Heights 14.5% 200

    West Kissimmee 9.4% 300

    Fish Lake 4.2% 88

    Market Overall 0.5%588 Units

    SUPPLY JULY 2018

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  • EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION BY INDUSTRY SECTOR

    EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TREND FOR TOTAL NON-FARM AND TWO LARGEST INDUSTRY SECTORS

    EARNINGS GROWTH TREND VS NATIONAL

    Employment National YOY Change 5-Year ChangeEmployment Sector Jobs % Share Rank Jobs Pct. Jobs Pct.

    Leisure and Hospitality 298K 19.9% 14 11.2K 3.9% 53.5K 21.9%

    Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 271K 18.1% 29 2.1K 0.8% 33.9K 14.3%

    Professional and Business Services 259K 17.3% 25 7.6K 3.0% 55.9K 27.5%

    Education and Health Services 194K 12.9% 34 8.5K 4.6% 30.6K 18.8%

    Government 143K 9.5% 43 0.6K 0.4% 7.4K 5.5%

    Mining, Logging and Construction 94K 6.3% 23 6.1K 6.9% 34.0K 56.4%

    Financial Activities 86K 5.8% 30 3.7K 4.5% 8.9K 11.5%

    Manufacturing 73K 4.9% 47 4.3K 6.3% 14.4K 24.7%

    Other Services 55K 3.6% 27 2.1K 4.0% 10.8K 24.7%

    Information 27K 1.8% 30 -0.3K -1.1% 0.8K 3.1%

    Total Non-Farm 1499K 100.0% 26 45.9K 3.2% 250.2K 20.0%

    EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS JULY 2018

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  • Prior 12 Months

    35Sale Price

    $143,187Average Price/Unit

    9Sale Velocity [-2]

    83Properties Sold

    10Sale Volume

    $3,105MMTotal Sales

    National RankingOut of 98 Markets

    MOST ACTIVE SUBMARKETS BY TRANSACTION VOLUME

    SALE TRENDS

    MOST ACTIVE BUYERS BY # PROPERTIES PURCHASED MOST ACTIVE SELLERS BY # PROPERTIES SOLD

    Lifestyle RBN

    # Properties 40 43

    Total $MM $2,232 $874

    Avg $/Unit $177,866 $95,586

    Company # Units $MM

    Starwood Capital Group 14 3,817 $363.1

    Bluerock Real Estate 6 2,198 $409.1

    TruAmerica Multifamily 3 1,030 $150.2

    Robbins Property Associates 3 932 $144.3

    Abacus Capital Group 3 594 $57.5

    Amzak Capital Management 3 570 $36.9

    Electra America 2 954 $141.1

    Harbor Group International 2 763 $161.5

    Company # Units $MM

    Banyan Realty Management 14 3,817 $363.1

    Carroll Organization 3 1,342 $231.2

    CFH Group 3 594 $57.5

    Lohman, Ty G. 3 570 $36.9

    Cross Florida Group 3 428 $27.3

    Starwood Capital Group 2 954 $124.6

    Royal American Development 2 496 $31.5

    Inland Real Estate Group 2 397 $109.5

    Submarket # Units $MM

    Lake Bryan 5 1,274 $253.5

    East Kissimmee 4 1,038 $178.2

    Stoneybrook 4 1,152 $165.7

    University Park 3 653 $160.5

    Hunter's Creek 2 772 $147.7

    Clermont 3 840 $140.1

    Colonial Town 2 661 $138.0

    Hancock Lake 2 768 $137.3

    Altamonte Springs 2 698 $125.0

    Vista Park 2 630 $121.4

    + 29 More Submarkets 53 13,202 $1,525.2

    Total 82 21,688 $3,092.5

    $81,721,250221 Units

    Buyer:Preferred Apartment Communities

    Sale Date: 06/05/2018

    Retreat at Orlando, The

    HIGHEST PRICED PREV. 3 MONTHS

    TRANSACTION ACTIVITY JULY 2018

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  • COVERAGE

    Yardi® Matrix reports on multi-family properties of 50+ units in size.

    This report for the Orlando metro area covers Counties: Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole

    Rental rate coverage is for Market Rate properties only. Fully Affordable properties are not included in our rental surveys and are not reported in rental rate averages.

    GENERAL DEFINITIONS

    Asset Class – refers to a generalized category of properties grouped by their Yardi® Matrix improvements rating

    Lifestyle Asset Class – a grouping of all of the highest rated market rate properties A+, A, A- and B+

    Renters-by-Necessity (RBN) Asset Class – a grouping of all of the lowest rated properties B, B-, C+, C, C- and D

    Year-over-Year Change – percentage growth from last year, for several months or quarters in a time-series. This analysis will highlight an overall direction of movement for a metro.

    An upward slope means an accelerating growth. A downward slope means a slowing growth. Above the line (zero) for increases, below the line for loss.

    Rankings – this metro is ranked nationally among other Yardi Matrix reported metros based on a single measure. For details on any specific ranking, see section descriptions below

    COMMONLY USED CALCULATIONS

    DATA SOURCES

    Rental Rates – are collected by Yardi® Matrix phone surveyors three times annually for 95%+ of property and unit configurations. Additionally, a representative sample of the market (between 10% and 20%) are surveyed monthly.

    Occupancy Rates – are derived from U.S. Postal Service data and Yardi® Matrix phone surveys

    Development Activity – information is tracked by Yardi® Matrix researchers. Construction projects are discovered through various publications and local government sources. Projects are tracked on a monthly basis. Completion dates and lease-up information are confirmed by phone calls to properties under construction.

    Employment – data is sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Reported employment is generally two months behind the current date for this report.

    Transaction Activity – information is tracked by Yardi® Matrix researchers. Sales are discovered through various publications and local government sources, and updates are made continuously.

    Rent Growth Ranking – based on rent growth over the past year, current month.

    Employment Growth Ranking – based on employment growth over the past year, latest employment month.

    Completions Ranking – based on inventory growth over the past year, current month.

    MARKET OVERVIEW

    Calculations – total employment size (jobs) is expressed as a sum of employment in areas overlapping the reported market: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

    EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS

    Industry Sectors – are defined by the NAICS Supersector designations. For more information visit: http://www.bls.gov/sae/saesuper.htm

    Sector National Ranking – is based on the absolute size of the industry sector within this metro, when compared to the same industry in other metro areas nationally.

    Earnings weekly vs hourly – differentiates hourly wage workers, from weekly salaried workers.

    DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

    Prospective Properties – announced construction projects, with no specific documents or government filings

    Planned Properties – are in the planning stages of construction, with documents having been filed with the county or city

    Under Construction Properties – have received permits for construction and broken ground.

    Rankings – are based on the number of units currently under construction: Overall, Lifestyle and Renters-by-Necessity Asset Classifications

    Projected Completions – Projected completions reported by Yardi® Matrix are limited to a year out and are based on properties currently under construction and their expected completion date.

    Projected Completions as a % of Prior Inventory – This forward-looking metric uses projected unit completions to calculate a relative growth over the next year for a particular area. Submarkets with a total share of market inventory below 1% are assigned an N/A value, to avoid over-stating their significance in rankings and color-coded map displays.

    Construction and Completion Counts – are reported based on property status as of the start of the month.

    TRANSACTION ACTIVITY

    Price – is expressed as Price/Unit as a standard measure. This is also used for national ranking

    Velocity – is measured by the number of properties sold per year. This is also used for national ranking

    Volume – measures the total amount of money spent in multi-family sale transactions in the prior year, expressed as millions of U.S. Dollars ($MM). This is also used for national ranking

    METHODS AND DEFINITIONS JULY 2018

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