Organic Agriculture and Food Security · 2020. 4. 28. · Rice. Wheat. Price developments since...
Transcript of Organic Agriculture and Food Security · 2020. 4. 28. · Rice. Wheat. Price developments since...
Global food security and natural resource scarcities: what are
sustainable strategies?
Matin Qaim Dept. of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
Draft presentation for Winter School of Volkswagen Foundation “Limits to Growth Revisited”, November 2012
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
870 m people are undernourished
Source: FAO (2012).
2
Asia 65%
Latin America 6%
Industrial countries
2%
Africa 27%
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
2800 kcal 2100 kcal
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Today 2050
Kca
l per
cap
ita
Hunger is a distribution problem
Measures to reduce poverty: • Economic growth • Education • Infrastructure • Social security • Good governance • Avoid strong food price
increases
Recommended
3
About 1 billion are overnourished worldwide.
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
2800 kcal 2100 kcal
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Today 2050
Kca
l per
cap
ita
Hunger is also a production problem
Recommended
4
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
100
150
200
250
300
350
1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010
Inde
x
Arable land
Population
Food production
Global developments since 1960
PAS Study Week 2009 5
Source: FAO (2012).
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
US
$/t
Rice Wheat Maize
Price developments from 1960 to 2000
PAS Study Week 2009 6
Source: World Bank (2008).
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800Ja
n-00 Ju
lJa
n-01 Ju
lJa
n-02 Ju
lJa
n-03 Ju
lJa
n-04 Ju
lJa
n-05 Ju
lJa
n-06 Ju
lJa
n-07 Ju
lJa
n-08 Ju
lJa
n-09 Ju
lJa
n-10 Ju
lJa
n-11 Ju
lJa
n-12 Ju
l
US$
/t
MaizeRiceWheat
Price developments since 2000
PAS Study Week 2009 7
Source: FAO (2012).
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development 8
Nutrition effects of price increases
Iron Zinc Riboflavin (B2)
Source: Ecker und Qaim (2011).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Calories
Pre
vale
nce
of d
efic
ienc
y (%
)
w/o price increase With price increase
50% maize price increase in Malawi
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1990 2000 2005 2008 2012
Und
erno
uris
hed
(mill
ions
) Development of FAO hunger statistics
Source: FAO (2012).
9
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
How do future trends for food demand and supply look like?
PAS Study Week 2009 10
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development 11
Demand projections until 2050
Today 2030 2050
World population (billion) 7.0 8.3 9.3
Industrial countries (billion) 1.2 1.3 1.3
Developing countries (billion) 5.8 7.0 8.0
Income growth in developing countries: • Per capita demand for food increases. • More meat and other animal products are consumed.
Population trends
Demand for food and feed is projected to grow by 70% until 2050.
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
Use of bioenergy • Biofuels gain in importance • Demand increases through: Rising crude oil prices Political support (not only in
EU and USA)
Until 2050, total demand for agricultural products (food, feed, fiber, and fuel) could easily double.
This would imply an annual demand growth of 1.8%.
• Projection until 2020: 15% of global maize and vegetable oil, 30% of cane sugar to be used for biofuels
Photo: F. Isermeyer
12
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
Challenges for food supply
PAS Study Week 2009 13
“In the next 50 years we will need to produce as much food as has been consumed over our entire human history.”
Megan Clark CEO
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
How can global supply be increased?
Global production
=
Arable land X Yield
• Irrigation • Chemical inputs • Technical
progress
• Limited potential still available
• But increasing environmental costs
14
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Aver
age
grow
th ra
te (%
) Growth rates in worldwide cereal yields
Source: FAO (2012).
15
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
Shortcomings in agricultural research
Growth in worldwide agricultural research investments has been declining since the mid-1990s.
Especially in industrial countries, yield growth is not the top priority in agricultural research anymore.
16
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
Yield effects of climate change until 2050
Source: CSIRO (2010) IFPRI (2011).
17
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Rice Wheat Maize
% Developing countries
Industrial countries
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Glo
bal c
erea
l yie
ld (t
/ha)
Challenges until 2050
Demand projection
Resource scarcity
Climate change
Research and technology
18
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
What type of technologies?
Technologies have to be sustainable
Sustainability requires scarce resources to be used as efficiently as possible
In the public „sustainable agriculture" is often misunderstood as traditional, low-input production
Too many entrenched views (organic farming vs. GMOs etc.)
Sustainable production systems require a smart combination of all areas of science, including new technologies
19
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
Beyond increasing supply, what about influencing demand?
For example: Meat consumption Biofuels
20
We have done some very simple simulations, analyzing scenario impacts on the number of undernourished.
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
Mechanisms for simulations
21
Price
Quantity
Food Feed
Food
Grain market
Example: Reduction in meat consumption
S D
1. Grain demand for direct consumption increases
2. Demand for feed decreases
3. Lower prices, lower supply
4. Quantity available for food use increases
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
870 866 845 805
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Status Quo D -50% EU -50% OECD -50%
Und
erno
uris
hed
(mill
ions
) Results of simulations
22
-7% -3% -0.5%
Reduction in meat consumption
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
870 845 789
912
1084
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Status Quo EU 0% OECD 0% EU 10% OECD 10%
Und
erno
uris
hed
(mill
ions
) Biofuels
23
-9% +25% +5% -3%
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development 24
Nevertheless, production needs to be increased, but where?
almost all hungry people live, almost all of the population growth takes place, the projected negative impacts of climate change are
particularly strong.
Agricultural growth in developing countries is of particular importance, because this is where:
In addition, around 75% of all hungry people live in rural areas of developing countries.
Agricultural growth in the small farm sector helps to increase poor people’s incomes, thus reducing poverty and inequality.
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
What suits the small farm sector?
New technology for rice
Agronomic innovation: less water, fewer inputs, more labor
25
Requires intensive training and extension
Up to 50% higher yields in some situations
Source: Noltze, Schwarze, Qaim (2012)
System of Rice Intensification (SRI) in Timor Leste
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development 26
GM cotton (Bt) in India: income effects
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
- Extremely poor Moderately poor Non poor
All households
Bt Conventional
US
$/ha
$250/ha
Source: Subramanian and Qaim (2010).
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Industrial Africa Asia Latin America
Mill
ion
tons
20102050 (projection)
Industrial countries have to contribute to global supplies, too
Net exports in cereal trade
27
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
870
979
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Status Quo EU27 Cereal productivity of 1980
Und
erno
uris
hed
(mill
ions
) Role of productivity in EU agriculture
28
+13%
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development 29
Conclusion 1. Hunger is still a very widespread problem, involving both
issues of distribution and production.
2. Currently, food supply is growing slower than demand.
3. More sustainable consumption is important.
4. Required production increases are a huge challenge, but possible with more research, technology, and innovation.
5. Ideological barriers have to be overcome.
6. The small farm sector in developing countries needs special attention to reduce hunger and poverty.
7. But also agriculture in rich countries plays an important role. Food security and resource scarcities are global issues.