Oregon Polling - realclearpolitics.com · Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton...

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Oregon Polling

Executive Summary

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 770 likely voters across Oregon. The poll was conducted from July 16th through the 17th and has a margin of error of ±3.5%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using an online panel of cell phone users and interactive voice responses. The results are weighted by voting demographics. The poll was paid for by Gravis Marketing.

3) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of President Trump’s job performance?

Q25: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q3: TRUMPPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 13.0% 27.3% 28.4% 4.3% 35.8% 5.8% 28.0% 11.9% 10.5% 18.3% 12.6%

Somewhat Disapprove 8.1% 1.9% 22.6% 9.4% 11.0% 7.4% 12.7% 3.4% 3.5% 5.2% 8.2%

Strongly Approve 14.1% 61.3% 1.6% 2.3% 0.0% 9.8% 19.0% 35.9% 35.2% 19.8% 35.1%

Strongly Disapprove 44.7% 5.2% 47.4% 80.8% 48.6% 48.8% 39.9% 47.0% 49.0% 50.5% 40.6%

Uncertain 20.0% 4.3% 0.0% 3.2% 4.7% 28.1% 0.4% 1.9% 1.8% 6.2% 3.5%

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

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4) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Senator Wyden’s job performance?



Q4: WYDENPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 18.9% 17.1% 37.0% 22.7% 4.5% 9.0% 35.5% 14.9% 15.6% 22.8% 17.8%




Uncertain 52.3% 14.4% 5.5% 11.8% 11.0% 46.9% 11.9% 11.7% 8.9% 18.0% 13.5%

5) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Senator Merkley’s job performance?

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Q5: MERKLEYPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 5.4% 15.4% 60.9% 22.0% 12.8% 9.0% 33.0% 13.7% 15.4% 18.3% 20.1%




Uncertain 62.9% 16.1% 25.5% 12.5% 0.0% 59.1% 19.7% 7.5% 8.6% 22.8% 13.4%

6) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Governor Brown’s job performance?



Q6: BROWNPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 39.6% 10.1% 6.7% 38.4% 11.3% 22.0% 36.9% 17.9% 24.5% 25.6% 25.6%




Uncertain 36.0% 9.2% 2.5% 4.7% 0.0% 34.3% 4.1% 6.8% 3.4% 8.7% 9.0%

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7) If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Kate Brown and Knute Buehler, who would you vote for?



Q7: BROWNVSBUEHLER Democrat Kate Brown 66.7% 8.6% 41.0% 74.9% 13.7% 53.5% 46.8% 42.5% 43.1% 47.7% 42.9%

Republican Knute Buehler 18.9% 82.7% 50.3% 16.3% 48.5% 32.2% 39.2% 53.3% 48.2% 41.2% 49.2%

Uncertain 14.3% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 37.8% 14.3% 14.0% 4.2% 8.7% 11.1% 7.9%

8) If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat?



Q8: ELECTIONPARTY Democrat 48.5% 10.5% 28.2% 84.1% 14.1% 53.0% 47.9% 47.1% 49.0% 50.0% 47.1%

Republican 22.2% 76.7% 25.7% 6.5% 11.0% 23.8% 33.3% 43.4% 40.4% 31.8% 42.6%

Uncertain 29.3% 12.8% 46.1% 9.5% 74.9% 23.2% 18.8% 9.4% 10.6% 18.2% 10.2%

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9) Would you more or less likely support a candidate for Congress if you knew they would support Nancy Pelosi to be Speaker of the House?



Q9: SUPPORTPELOSI Less Likely 43.1% 78.0% 25.4% 20.8% 74.5% 40.4% 51.6% 46.6% 44.1% 38.8% 54.8%

More Likely 5.5% 5.8% 10.4% 33.1% 6.3% 12.5% 10.2% 23.9% 25.7% 20.4% 17.0%

Uncertain 51.4% 16.3% 64.2% 46.0% 19.2% 47.1% 38.2% 29.5% 30.1% 40.7% 28.1%

10) Would you more or less likely support a candidate for Congress if you knew they would vote to impeach President Donald J. Trump?



Q10: IMPEACHTRUMP Less Likely 24.9% 87.0% 22.3% 12.2% 35.8% 18.9% 51.1% 49.8% 42.5% 39.2% 49.7%

More Likely 44.8% 6.5% 65.7% 73.5% 64.2% 54.8% 35.4% 44.0% 46.7% 49.9% 36.8%

Uncertain 30.4% 6.5% 12.0% 14.4% 0.0% 26.3% 13.5% 6.3% 10.9% 10.9% 13.5%

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11) Do you currently approve or disapprove of the Tax Reform Bill that was signed into law recently?



Q11: TAXREFORM Approve 14.0% 68.3% 5.8% 7.4% 3.2% 19.5% 27.3% 42.6% 32.8% 26.5% 39.2%

Disapprove 31.8% 9.4% 16.4% 75.5% 50.1% 36.1% 40.6% 44.9% 46.6% 42.1% 43.6%

Uncertain 54.1% 22.3% 77.8% 17.1% 46.8% 44.4% 32.1% 12.5% 20.6% 31.4% 17.2%

12) Do you support or oppose the legalization of same-sex marriage in the United States?



Q12: SAMESEXMARRIAGE Oppose 4.1% 55.1% 6.9% 9.2% 12.8% 12.0% 18.8% 33.6% 38.6% 21.5% 33.7%

Support 68.3% 26.1% 84.9% 80.6% 85.5% 64.5% 64.6% 54.2% 49.4% 63.1% 51.8%

Uncertain 27.6% 18.9% 8.1% 10.2% 1.7% 23.5% 16.6% 12.2% 12.0% 15.4% 14.5%

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13) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion in Oregon?



Q13: OREGONABORTION Oppose 40.1% 41.5% 56.6% 63.8% 59.0% 55.4% 46.7% 55.9% 53.7% 50.1% 55.2%

Support 27.1% 40.5% 9.6% 26.7% 41.0% 18.6% 39.8% 31.3% 30.6% 33.6% 30.3%

Uncertain 32.8% 17.9% 33.8% 9.5% 0.0% 26.0% 13.5% 12.8% 15.7% 16.3% 14.5%

14) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion after a pregnancy has lasted for 20 weeks in Oregon?



Q14: OREGONABORTION20WEEK Oppose 51.8% 37.6% 38.3% 52.0% 65.4% 40.8% 49.9% 46.7% 42.0% 48.0% 43.4%

Support 19.2% 46.5% 42.4% 26.1% 28.7% 32.2% 34.6% 36.7% 32.3% 33.0% 36.0%

Uncertain 29.0% 15.9% 19.3% 21.9% 5.9% 27.0% 15.5% 16.6% 25.7% 19.0% 20.6%

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15) Do you support or oppose a referendum that would repeal Oregon’s Sanctuary State law, which limits the use of state & local law enforcement resources when enforcing immigration laws?



Q15: SANCTUARYLAW Oppose 21.9% 22.1% 57.2% 53.9% 46.4% 34.3% 40.9% 39.7% 35.7% 35.7% 41.2%

Support 27.5% 64.0% 26.0% 21.4% 0.0% 35.0% 32.3% 43.4% 44.2% 37.6% 40.9%

Uncertain 50.7% 13.9% 16.8% 24.7% 53.6% 30.7% 26.7% 16.9% 20.1% 26.7% 17.9%

16) Do you support or oppose President Trump’s actions regarding removing the United States from the Iranian Nuclear Agreement?



Q16: IRANNUCLEAR Oppose 49.8% 11.2% 14.8% 81.6% 51.4% 43.7% 48.4% 47.8% 49.6% 50.0% 45.6%

Support 10.9% 72.3% 25.5% 5.0% 0.0% 15.5% 28.9% 40.2% 40.1% 26.8% 40.5%

Uncertain 39.4% 16.6% 59.7% 13.4% 48.6% 40.8% 22.7% 12.1% 10.3% 23.2% 13.9%

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17) As you may know there is an investigation into possible dealings with President Trump’s associates and Russia being led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Do you believe the investigation is justified or do you believe it is politically motivated?



Q17: RUSSIA Justified 32.5% 11.1% 44.4% 85.4% 47.3% 37.8% 50.7% 49.4% 53.0% 51.0% 47.2%

Politically motivated 23.7% 81.3% 34.3% 9.5% 52.7% 23.7% 40.8% 47.0% 43.6% 36.3% 46.5%

Uncertain 43.8% 7.6% 21.3% 5.1% 0.0% 38.5% 8.5% 3.6% 3.4% 12.8% 6.3%

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18) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s job performance?



Q18: MUELLERPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 3.2% 9.8% 22.7% 8.3% 4.7% 13.0% 14.5% 5.3% 4.9% 8.6% 9.3%




Uncertain 47.3% 13.6% 15.6% 18.3% 46.8% 44.9% 27.9% 7.5% 9.1% 24.4% 13.1%

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19) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the Mainstream Media’s job performance?



Q19: MEDIAPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 21.3% 4.3% 13.6% 35.4% 3.6% 16.3% 22.4% 19.6% 21.9% 21.9% 19.2%




Uncertain 25.5% 7.3% 6.5% 8.6% 3.2% 31.7% 4.8% 3.8% 9.9% 9.0% 9.5%

20) Would you approve or disapprove of a border wall built between the border of Mexico and the U.S.?

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Q20: BORDERWALL Approve 15.1% 84.4% 26.7% 8.8% 35.8% 21.1% 44.5% 43.9% 43.9% 34.3% 48.2%

Disapprove 58.8% 7.2% 73.3% 85.2% 53.2% 55.8% 46.5% 51.1% 51.7% 56.7% 44.0%

Uncertain 26.0% 8.4% 0.0% 6.0% 11.0% 23.1% 9.0% 5.0% 4.4% 9.0% 7.8%

21) Do you believe that taxes are too high, too low, or just right in Oregon?



Q21: TAXLEVEL Just right 10.3% 11.6% 38.3% 40.1% 7.2% 34.4% 18.2% 24.5% 31.9% 23.6% 27.9%

Too high 49.3% 81.8% 56.3% 32.4% 43.3% 31.5% 64.9% 58.6% 49.9% 55.1% 54.5%

Too low 13.5% 1.1% 5.3% 12.3% 4.7% 8.2% 5.3% 8.4% 8.8% 7.9% 7.1%

Uncertain 26.9% 5.5% 0.0% 15.1% 44.9% 26.0% 11.6% 8.5% 9.4% 13.4% 10.4%

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22) Do you believe the U.S. Senate should consider President Trump’s nominee, Brett Kavanaugh to fill the vacancy of Justice Kennedy, who is retiring?



Q22: SENTATEJUSTICE No 39.9% 8.4% 11.1% 66.8% 49.6% 35.3% 41.8% 38.4% 37.8% 40.6% 37.0%

Uncertain 42.0% 8.5% 53.9% 16.4% 50.4% 38.5% 13.0% 13.1% 14.4% 22.1% 11.2%

Yes 18.2% 83.1% 35.0% 16.7% 0.0% 26.2% 45.1% 48.5% 47.8% 37.3% 51.8%

23) Are you more or less likely to support a candidate for U.S. Senate who will confirm a Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?



Q23: KAVANAUGHCANDIDATE Less Likely 46.5% 7.2% 13.6% 64.8% 20.9% 39.4% 33.1% 39.1% 40.2% 38.9% 36.3%

More Likely 9.3% 74.1% 32.5% 5.1% 0.0% 16.1% 30.4% 39.7% 42.3% 25.4% 43.8%

Uncertain 44.2% 18.8% 53.9% 30.2% 79.1% 44.5% 36.5% 21.2% 17.4% 35.6% 19.9%

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24) Do you think that Brett Kavanaugh is qualified to be a justice on the U.S. Supreme Court?



Q24: KAVANAUGHQUALIFIED No 26.2% 4.4% 7.9% 52.5% 20.9% 33.2% 25.6% 32.2% 26.2% 30.5% 27.4%

Uncertain 48.4% 16.4% 47.4% 22.6% 77.3% 42.2% 29.5% 14.3% 18.7% 27.6% 19.3%

Yes 25.4% 79.2% 44.7% 24.8% 1.8% 24.6% 44.9% 53.5% 55.0% 41.9% 53.3%

25) In the 2016 Presidential election whom did you vote for?

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Q25: 2016ELECTION Didn't vote 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 34.5% 6.6% 2.5% 2.0% 10.4% 5.1%

Donald Trump 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 42.2% 43.7% 46.2% 36.2% 45.8%

Gary Johnson 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 5.7% 0.7% 1.2% 3.7% 2.8%

Hillary Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 33.5% 45.5% 51.9% 49.0% 47.8% 46.0%

Jill Stein 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.9% 0.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.9% 0.3%

The following questions are for demographic purposes:

1) Are you registered to vote in Oregon?

2) How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Oregon Midterm Elections?

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26) What is your party affiliation?

27) What is your political ideology?

28) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?

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29) What race do you identify yourself as?

30) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

31) What is the highest level of education have you completed?

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32) How old are you?

33) What is your gender?

Oregon Polling - realclearpolitics.com · Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton...

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