Oregon Income Trends

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Oregon Income Trends

October 2015 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Josh Lehner

2Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Overview

• Big Picture Trends• Per capita income, poverty, and income source

• Household Income• Changes, low-income demographics, and debt

• Regional Income Trends• Comparisons, business cycle impacts and educational

attainment

• Data Sources• Incomplete list of good sources


Big Picture Trends


Historical Look at Income vs Wages

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20102015

Oregon Personal IncomeShare of U.S., 4 Quarter Moving Average

Source: BEA, IHS Global Insight, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Per Capita Personal Income

Average Wage


State Poverty in Perspective


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+

Av

erag

e in

com

e

Age

Wage/Salary/Self-employment

Interest/dividend/rental income

Social Security

Retirement

Sup. SS, Public Assist. & Other

All other income

Income, Sources and Age

Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, ACS 2011-13, PUMS.

For More on Aging Revenues: http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/03/19/aging-revenues/

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/03/19/aging-revenues/


Household Income


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Oregon Household Income Distribution2014 American Community Survey

Rural

Urban


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

U.S

.

Po

rtla

nd

MSA

Ore

gon

Po

rtla

nd

Lake

Osw

ego

Hill

sbo

ro

Tual

atin

Ore

gon

Cit

y

Milw

auki

e

Bea

vert

on

Van

cou

ver

Tiga

rd

Gre

sham

Region City

Median Family Income, 2008-2013

Inflation (Core PCE)


-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

U.S

.

Ore

gon

Sale

m M

SA

Spri

ngf

ield

Co

rval

lis

Sale

m

Euge

ne

Kei

zer

Alb

any

Wo

od

bu

rn

Region City

Median Family Income, 2008-2013

Inflation (Core PCE)


-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

< $25k

$25-50k

$50-75k

$75-100k

$100-150k

> $150k

Thousands

Portland MSA Households by IncomeChange from 2007 to 2014

Housing Affordability*

Rent

$450

$625+

$1,250+

$1,875+

$2,500+

$3,750+

Home Price

$80k

$120k+

$240k+

$360k+

$480k+

$730k+

*Monthly housing costs equal to 30% of income. Home price assumes 20% down payment, 4% 30 year fixed mortgage, average property taxes and homeowners insurance. | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

More High Income Households Today

12

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Number of Low-Income Oregonians by Age

Notes: Low-Income Defined as Less than 200% FPL,Source: 2011-13 Census Public Use Microdataset

13

Single Adult, 1 Child, 22,686 Single Adult, 2

Children, 31,816

Single Adult, 3 Children, 21,410

Single Adult, 4 Children, 7,897

Single Adult, 5+ Children, 2,784

Multiple Adults, 1 Child, 51,620

Multiple Adults, 2 Children,

100,707


83,951


37,576

Multiple Adults, 5+ Children,

32,966

All Children Below 200% of Federal Poverty Level


Household Debt Stabilizing


Regional Income Trends


Real Income Trends

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Tho

usa

nd

s

Oregon Real Per Capita Personal Income

Portland MSA

Other Urban

Rural

Latest Data: 2013 | Source: BEA, BLS, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis


Unfortunately Oregon Has Been Here Before

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Peak 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 yr 6 yr 7 Yr 8 Yr

Perc

ent

Job

Lo

ss

Oregon Employment Loss by Recession

'73 '01 '80'07'48'53

'69'60 '90

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis


-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Peak 5 Years 10 Years

Recessionary Income Losses in OregonReal Personal Income less Transfer Payments

South Coast ('78) Southern ('06) Central ('08)

Latest Data: 2013 | Source: BEA, BLS, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis


Shifting Income Composition

$-

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

South Coast Per Capita Personal Income, 000s 2013$

Wages

Transfers

Other

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

South Coast Per Capita Personal Income, 000s 2013$


Labor Market Changes


Local Comparative Advantage?

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

ManagementHealthcare…

LegalEngineer/Arch

Computer /…Business,…ScientistsTeachers

ConstructionArts, Design, Ent

Protective…Install, Maint,…

Community…Sales

ProductionAdmin SupportTransportation

Heathcare…Agriculture

Bldg Cleaning…Personal Care

Food Prep

Coast Workers with High School or Less

Actual Worker Distribution Statewide Average Equiv.

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

ManagementHealthcare…

LegalEngineer/Arch

Computer /…Business,…ScientistsTeachers

ConstructionArts, Design, Ent

Protective…Install, Maint,…

Community…Sales

ProductionAdmin SupportTransportation

Heathcare…Agriculture

Bldg Cleaning…Personal Care

Food Prep

Coast Workers with Bachelor's or More

Actual Worker Distribution Statewide Average Equiv.


Local Comparative Advantage

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

Bend Corvallis Eugene Salem Portland S.Oregon

Medford Gorge NEOregon

N. Coast SEOregon

Transportation


Data Sources

• Census and Fact Finder

• U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis• County/MSA income by source since 1969

• Oregon Employment Department and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics• Wages by industry, occupation, county• BLS: Consumer Expenditure Survey

• Federal Reserve • Board of Governors (Survey of Consumer Finance)• Bank of New York (Household Debt)


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For More Information

Josh Lehner

[email protected]

(503) 378-4052

Social Media:

www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com

@OR_EconAnalysis

mailto:[email protected]

Oregon Income Trends

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Oregon Income Trends