Oregon Global Warming Commission · EE + Maintain RPS + Boardman Power Plant Replaced with Natural...
Transcript of Oregon Global Warming Commission · EE + Maintain RPS + Boardman Power Plant Replaced with Natural...
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Oregon Global Warming Commission:
Oregon’s Roadmap to 2020 http://www.keeporegoncool.org/content/roadmap-2020
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• OR Emissions, Goals, Actions tracked since 2004
• OR met 2010 goal; 2020 ?
• Set 2035 Goal • “wedge” analysis:
measures + tax/cap
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Progress Toward Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals
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Historical Greenhouse Gas EmissionsGovernor's Advisory Group on Global Warming (2004) Business as Usual ForecastGreenhouse Gas Emissions from 2000 to Most Recent Data Available (2010)Current Business as Usual ForecastEnergy Efficiency (EE) and Conservation to Meet All New Load GrowthEE + Maintain Full Impact of Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to 2025EE + Maintain RPS + Boardman Power Plant Replaced with Natural Gas & Renewables (50/50) in 2021EE + Maintain RPS + Boardman Switch + Clean Fuels Program (LCFS) with 2015 Sunset Removed2020 and 2050 Goal Emissions Reduction Trajectory
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Historical GHG Emissions (1990 to2012)
Current Business as UsualForecast
Previous Business as UsualForecast
2020 and 2050 Goals Trajectory
Oregon GHG peak 1999
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US GHG Peak 2008
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Figure 1: Oregon Emissions by Sector 1990-2012 -- (MMTCO2)
1990: 56.9 MMT
2012: 60.9 MMT
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OR GHG’s _ Alternate Calculations 1990 (MMTons) 2012 (MMTons)
Total GHGs 56.9 60.9
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Per Capita GHG (OR) 0.02 0.015
Per Capita GHG (Multnomah Cty) 0.015 0.010
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Per Oregon GDP (GHG per MM$*) 0.877 0.296
[OR GDP $Billions in 2009$ $64.8 $205.7 ] _________________________________
Consumption Based GHG Inventory 2005 2010 2012 GHG (MMTons) 75.4 75.2 77.0
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Transportation of Goods & People (no light rail)
36.0%
Electricity Use (all sectors)
31.5%
Other Residential & Commercial
Activities 12.1%
Industrial Processes &
Other Energy 11.8%
Livestock, Soil, & Crops
8.5%
Oregon Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010 (with electricity broken out from sectors)
Cars = about ¼ of OR GHG
Coal = about ¼ of OR GHG
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= 50% of Oregon GHG Emissions
CARS COAL +
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PGE Boardman Coal Generator, Boardman, OR
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Dave Johnston/ PAC/608MW
Wyodak/ PAC/362MW
Naughton/ PAC/707MW [326MW Unit 3 shift to gas]
Jim Bridger /PAC/2318MW
Colstrip/ PSE/2272MW
Carbon/PAC/ 189MW/ Closing 2015
Hunter/ PAC/1472MW
Huntington/ PAC/996MW
Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads, and may deliver to local or other loads as well
Craig/PAC /893MW
Cholla4 (AZ)/ PAC/414MW
Boardman/PGE/585MW/ ending coal combustion 2020
Centralia/TransAlta/ 1460MW/closing by 2025
Principal Coal-burning plants serving PNW/IW loads [Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads and may deliver to local or other interstate loads also]
Hayden/ PAC/465MW
N. Valmy/ Sierra Pacific/ 512MW
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PGE Projected CO2 Emissions and 2035/2050 Goal Trajectory
PAC Projected CO2 Emissions and 2035/2050 Goal Trajectory
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Boardman
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Fig. 3: OR Emissions from Motor Gasoline and Diesel (MMTCO2e); and Statewide Total Vehicle Miles Traveled (MM)
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Cars and Coal Est. Carbon-Equivalent MPG*: Electric Vehicles
Wichita, KN (SWPP) – 74% coal/8% gas Raleigh NC (SRVC) – 45% coal/9% gas Seattle WA (WECC) – <3% coal/<1% gas
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Oregon Utilities PacifiCorp +66% coal / +17% gas = + Wichita PGE (post-Boardman) + 9% coal / +63% gas = +Raleigh Eugene (EWEB/COU) <1% coal / +1% gas = + Seattle
= 35 mpg* = 55 mpg* >112 mpg*
*Miles per gallon equivalents per UCS
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Fig 11: OR GHG Goal Trajectory and Emission Reduction Wedges
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Case 2: Carbon tax plus statewide emission reduction measures
Carbon taxPower generationAgricultureWasteTransportationRCI energy efficiencyBusiness as usual forecastEmissions after measures2035 and 2050 Goal trajectory
2035 Goal
Efficiency
Transportation
Power Generation
Carbon Tax
Waste Agriculture
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2015 Report Recommendations
• Set a [midway] 2035 GHG Goal
• Develop interim “benchmarks” by sector
• Address equity effects
• Track and “upload” technology (e.g., energy storage)
• Reduce in all sectors; begin with “Cars and Coal”
• Leverage federal GHG initiatives: CAFE + CPP
• Develop consumption-based goals and actions
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Help From the Feds - Cars
• Auto/light truck “CAFE” efficiency standards – Goals: 35.5 mpg by 2016; 54.5 mpg by 2025 – On target? (30.1 mpg – August, 2013)
• Over-The-Road Truck fuel economy standards adopted (next: rail, air?)
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Help From the Feds - Coal
• 2014: Clean Air Act S. 111(b) regulates carbon emissions from new power plants
• 2015: S. 111(d) regulates carbon emissions
from existing power plants – Goal: 32% reduction by 2030 (from 2012) – Each state gets its own target – Tools: (1) plant efficiency; (2) shift from coal to
gas; (3) shift to renewables; (4) efficiency
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Coal and Oregon’s Electric Power System
Hydro 95%
Other 5%
2015
HydroCoalGasRenewablesOther
1965
Hydro 45%
Coal 33%
Gas 12%
Renewables 6% Other
3%
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Dave Johnston/ PAC/608MW
Wyodak/ PAC/362MW
Naughton/ PAC/707MW [326MW Unit 3 shift to gas]
Jim Bridger /PAC/2318MW
Colstrip/ PSE/2272MW
Carbon/PAC/ 189MW/ Closing 2015
Hunter/ PAC/1472MW
Huntington/ PAC/996MW
Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads, and may deliver to local or other loads as well
Craig/PAC /893MW
Cholla4 (AZ)/ PAC/414MW
Boardman/PGE/585MW/ ending coal combustion 2020
Centralia/TransAlta/ 1460MW/closing by 2025
Principal Coal-burning plants serving PNW/IW loads [Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads and may deliver to local or other interstate loads also]
Hayden/ PAC/465MW
N. Valmy/ Sierra Pacific/ 512MW
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Clean Power Plan Final Rule: Targets
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OR CPP Compliance Outlook [Assumes no added EE/RE]
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MT CPP Compliance: and Colstrip Coal Plant
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Oregon Climate Change Research Institute 2015
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Canyon Creek Fire, August 2015
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South Carolina 2015 “Once in a Millennium” Storm
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Oliphant - Wash Post 2003
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Energy Efficiency Is Now The Northwest’s Second Largest Power Resource
Hydropower 53%
Coal 12%
Energy Efficiency
16%
Natural Gas 7%
Nuclear 3%
Wind 6%
Biomass 1%
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PARIS?
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Oregon CPP Rate-Based Goal [OR 2030 mass-based goal 8.1 MMT – from 2012 base 7.7 MMT]
Or: mass-based 2030 goal: 8.1 MMT [=6% higher than 2012]
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OR CPP Compliance Outlook [Assumes no added EE/RE]
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OR Consumption-Based Emissions
• “Consumption-based Emissions” Inventory • GHG’s associated with (1) what we buy, (2) how we
use it, (3) how we dispose of it • Includes GHG’s from imports (flat screen TV’s from
China; shoes from Viet Nam) • Excludes GHG’s from OR exports (Intel chips) 2005 2010 2012 GHG (MMT) 75.4 75.2 77.0