Ordem e Progresso ornem ordem, nem progresso?

Brazil Random Facts

• Portuguese Empire

• Almost 200 million

• Bigger than the lower 48 of the US

• Invented the airplane?

Early Brazil

• Brazilian independence

• Imperial Brazil

• First Republic

Getulio Vargas

• 1930-1945– Gaucho– Centralizes Brazilian poltics– Increase state intervention in economy– Estado Novo– First mass-based politics

Second Republic, 1945-1964

• Democratic politics

• ISI policies and related crises

• Juscelino Kubitschek, President 1956-1960.

The Brazilian Political Systemin the Second Republic

• Weak President– Majority veto override– No decree power

• Complex Legislative System– Multiparty, high fragmentation.– Party-Switching– Open-list proportional representation

Political System, Cont

• Net Result:– Executive leadership difficult– Pork and Vote-buying an essential part of

legislative coalitions.

Growing tensions

• Economic problems associated with ISI

• Stabilization program would alienate workers and left.

• Polarization

• Military Thinking: ESG– US helped to set up in 1949

Janio Quadros

• Janio Quadros– Elected 1960– V-P Joao Goulart – Brilliant or crazy?– Resigns hoping for more power

Joao Goulart, V-P

• Will he become President?– In communist China at the time of the coup– Military despises him– He flies home indirectly (China-Paris-RS)

• Solution: Parliamentary system?– Weak President (Goulart)– Tancredo Neves, Prime Minister

Goulart• Regains full Presidential powers via

plebiscite, 1963• Challenges

– Economic– Military Politics– Rural mobilization– Stalemate

• Coup d’Etat, 1964– Was it really a coup?

New form of Authoritarianism

• Military Governments in Brazil– Previously - clean house and leave– This time…. they stayed until 1985

• “Bureaucratic Authoritarian” Regimes– Authoritarian– Bureaucratic - apolitical technocrats given

control.

Brazil’s military government• Pseudo-Democracy

• Brutal - but not Argentina, not Chile?

• Castello Branco 64-67– 1966 Elections and political parties– ARENA and the MDB

• Costa e Silva 67-69 (hard-liner)– Repression of labor and politicians– AI-5– Insurrection, crushed by 1973

Brazilian GDP Change

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Year

Ch

an

ge

in G

DP

Military Government, Cont1970 1974

Inflation 18.2 31.5

EconomicGrowth

8.8 9.8

World Cup Brazil West Germany

Election Results ARENA MDB GainsSeats

Central Features of the New Republic

• The Party System– Open-List Proportional Representation with

low barriers to entry.

• Inequality, clientelism, and patronage politics.

• A Strong Presidency

• Federalism?

1. Brazil’s Party System• Mass partisanship is extremely low, in contrast to

other countries.

• Many parties earn seats in Congress – usually more than 20.

• Politician’s success has little relation to their partisanship.

• Correlation between President and Deputy vote shares is ….. 0

• Why?

Open List Proportional Representation

X Y Z

Joao 25 Miriam 11 Dilma 14

Marta 3 Wigold 10 Gisela 13

Gabriela 2 Maria 7 Roberto 5

Sebastian 1 Jose 6 World Peace 2

Fernando 1 Itamar 2 Ulysses 1

32 36 31

Typical campaign ad, OLPR

Another OLPR Ad

Impact of the Party System

• President’s party never has a majority. Lucky to get 20% of the seats in Congress.

• The other 80% of the seats are held by the other 20 or so parties.

• So how does anyone get anything done in Brazil?

• Presidency + $

2. Strong Presidency

• Executive has central role in budget, and expenditures are “optional”.

• Executive has “decree authority” – can write “medidas provisorias”, with temporary force of law.

• Result: executive forms large multi-party coalitions for governing, and uses decree authority when necessary.

3. Inequality/Poverty a prerequisite?

• Why do parties “sell out” so easily?

• Greed

• Poverty

• “When it gets dark out there, it get’s really dark”.

• Voters in many places don’t care about your stand on world peace. They just want you to get things done.

Some Perspective• The legislature is fragmented, lacks

accountability – and is largely for sale.

• The executive uses pork and decree authority to govern.

• In this sense, representation “works”. The most important votes anyone casts are for the Presidency.

• Key difference from 1946-1964: the legislature is weaker.

4. Federalism?

• Brazil is divided into 27 states plus a federal district

• Historically, state politics have spilled over into national politics

• Those influences are still present for legislators but much weaker for presidents.

• Evidence: roll-call votes, presidential tickets, and reforms.

Recent Political History

• 1985-1989: Jose Sarney (ARENA)

• 1989-1992: Fernando Collor (PRN)

• 1992-1994: Itamar Franco (PMDB)

• 1995-2002: Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)

• 2003-2010: Luiz “Lula” da Silva (PT)

• 2011- : Dilma Rousseff (PT)

Lula: Change or more of the same?• Founding member of the Worker’s Party, 2nd grade

education, metal worker.• As President:

– Multiple corruption scandals.– Expands CCT’s to poor.– Economic boom.

• Extremely popular with poor, extremely unpopular with middle/upper

• New class cleavage or “rouba mais faz”?

New Directions in Research on

Brazil

• A worrisome increase in judicial politicization.

New Directions• The enduring problem of race

• The racial myth in Brazil is one of equality color blind attitudes, and shared heritage.

• Brazil is more than 50% “black”

• Most of the afro-brazilians are poor. Most of the elites are white

An Experiment

Not a Racial Myth?

No picture White Mixed Black Japanese

Treatment .28 .18 .22 .21 .21

Control .72 .82 .78 .79 .79

n 151 160 145 152 155

But with more choices…

White Subjects Mixed Subjects Black Subjects

C. Race

White Black Diff White Black Diff White Black Diff

3 .20 .183 +.02 .20 .22 -.02 .11 .40 -.29

6 .22 .26 -.04 .23 .24 -.02 .30 .42 -.13

12 .21 .11 +.14 .19 .25 -.05 .17 .46 -.29

New Directions:Brazil’s International Future

• Still struggles with a perverse combination of pride and shame

• Desires a seat at the table (UN Sercurity Council)

• But will struggle with conflicting themes: nonalignment, anti-American, and democracy.

My favorite punchline

• Everyone would love to have Brazil’s problems.