Orange financial results · 10/26/2017 · ** Starting Q1 2017, fixed LTE is reported in fixed...
Transcript of Orange financial results · 10/26/2017 · ** Starting Q1 2017, fixed LTE is reported in fixed...
#Q3_2017Orange financial results
Ramon Fernandez
Deputy CEO, Chief Financial and Strategy Officer
26 October 2017
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements about Orange. Although we believe these statements are based on
reasonable assumptions, they are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including matters not yet known to us or not currently
considered material by us, and there can be no assurance that anticipated events will occur or that the objectives set out will
actually be achieved. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from the results anticipated in the forward-looking
statements include, among others: the success of Orange’s strategy, particularly its ability to maintain control over customer
relations when facing competition with OTT players, risks related to banking activities, loss or disclosure to third parties of
customers data, Orange’s ability to withstand intense competition in mature markets, networks or software failures due to
cyberattacks, damage to networks caused by natural disasters, terrorist acts or other reasons, various frauds affecting Orange or its
clients, Orange’s ability to retain the necessary skills given the high level of employee retirements and the development of new
needs, difficulties in integrating newly acquired businesses as part of the telecommunication sector’s consolidation in Europe, its
ability to capture growth opportunities in emerging markets and the risks specific to those markets, possible adverse health effects
associated with the use of telecommunications equipment, risks related to the single brand strategy, the eruption of a global
financial or economic crisis, fiscal and regulatory constraints and changes, the results of litigation regarding regulations, competition
and other matters, disagreements with its co-shareholders in companies that Orange does not control, the terms of access to capital
markets, interest rate or exchange rate fluctuations, Orange's credit ratings, changes in assumptions underlying the accounting
value of certain assets resulting in their impairment, and credit risks or counterparty risks on financial transactions. More detailed
information on the potential risks that could affect our financial results is included in the Registration Document filed on April 6, 2017
with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) and in the annual report on Form 20-F filed on April 7, 2017 with the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Other than as required
by law, Orange does not undertake any obligation to update them in light of new information or future developments.
22
Section oneFinancial results overview
Revenue€ 10.3 bn
Adjusted
EBITDA**
Capex
€ 3.6 bn
€ 1.6 bn
4
Group
Customers 269 m
yoy : comparison with the same period of the previous year,
on a comparable basis unless otherwise specified
All Group level mentions include both telecom and banking
activities. Conversely, all mentions excluding Orange bank
are explicitly called “Telecom”
** see slide 25 for EBITDA adjustments
Q3 2017 Group achievements
+0.9%
+€95m
Q3 2017*
+2.1%
+73€m
Q3 2017*
Q3 2017*
2.4%
+2.5%
+39€m
Q3 2017*
* yoy cb
9m 2017*
+1.0%
+€317m
9m 2017*
+2.2%
+203€m
9m 2017*
+2.8%
+134€m
Convergence, the bedrock of our commercial performance
5
-4pts -9pts -2pts
+9% +12% +31%**
Convergent B2C customer base in m
Churn improvement with convergence*
B2C billed services quarterly ARPCO (Average Revenue Per Convergent Offer), in €/month
Convergent billed service revenue B2C yoy growth
* Churn differential between convergent B2C customers and total fixed BB B2C customers
** YoY evolution calculated in local currency
2Q17
5.7
1Q17
5.6
4Q16
5.5
3Q16
5.4
3Q17
5.9
+9%
3Q172Q17
3.09
1Q17
3.07
4Q16
3.02
3Q16
2.98
+4%
3.09
2Q17
0.86
1Q17
0.74
4Q16
0.67
3Q16
0.60
3Q17
0.95
+57%
France Spain Poland
59% 83% 47%
% of broadband B2C customer base
Convergence: client with an offer combining at least
one broadband access (xDSL, FTTx or LTE4Fixed with
cell-lock) and a mobile voice contract.
€62.5+0.0% yoy
€58.7+7% yoy
€24-16% yoy**
38
29
583
10
-9
Poland
10,179
France SpainQ3’16
cb
Central
Europe
Belgium
& Lux.
Q3’17
10,274
IC&SS
eliminations
-51
Enterprise
-10
Africa
Middle
East
Continued revenue growth in most of our footprint
6
Group revenue growth yoy
Q3 17Q1 16 Q2 16
+0.0%
Q3 16
+0.8%
Q4 16
+1.0%
Q1 17
+0.8%
Q2 17
+1.4%
+0.6%
Q1 15
-0.9%
Q2 15
-0.2%
Q3 15
+0.5%
Q4 15
+0.1%
+0.9%
Q3 2017
revenue*
€10.3bn
Q3 revenue evolution, telecom (in €m)
* Orange Bank Net Banking Income is not included in Group
revenues but in Group other operating income
+0.9%
+€95m
+1.0%
+€317m
9m 2017Q3 2017
Strong growth in adjusted EBITDA, underlying trend more than offset EU roaming impact
7
Adjusted EBITDA evolution (telecom, in €m)
Q3 2017
Adjusted EBITDA
(telecom)
€3.6bn
yoy
+2.3%
+€82m
Q3’16
+2.2%
+4.8%
Q4’16
+2.5%
+3.5%
Q1’17
+2.3%
+3.1%
Q2’17 Q3’17
+4.7%
-1.2%
Q1’15
+1.6%
Q2’15 Q2’16Q1’16
+0.1%
-1.6%
Q4’15
+1.7%
Q3’15
+1.6%
-2.1%
56
109
Q3’17EU Roaming impact
3,638-83
Costs savings
excl. EU
roaming impact
Revenues growth
excl. EU
roaming impact
Q3’16 cb
3,556
As % of rev.
35.4%
+0.5pt yoy
Adjusted Ebitda growth (telecom, yoy in %)
9m 2017Q3 2017
yoy
+2.4%
+€222m
As % of rev.
31.6%
+0.4pt yoy
Adj. EBITDA growth excl. EU roaming impact
Adj. EBITDA growth
Sustained investment efforts to keep our competitive advantage in connectivity
8
9m 2017
CAPEX
(telecom)
€4.8bn
yoy
+2.0%
+€97m
Spain
94.6%
+5.6pt
Belgium
99.6%
+0.1pt
Romania
90.9%
+16.6pt
Moldova
98%
+2pt
Slovakia
83%
+6pt
France
93.8%
+10.2pt
Poland
99.8%
+2.4pt
4G coveragePopulation covered in %, yoy evolution in pp
VHBB connectable homes
Spain 11.3 m +26%
France 8.4 m +33%
Poland 2.2 m 83%
yoy
As % of rev.
15.8%
+0.2pt yoy
9m 2017
Section twoBusiness review
Q3 2017 FranceTotal revenues growth confirmed, with growth in fixed compensating pressure in mobile
Revenue evolution (yoy in %)
33.9€
Broadband ARPU Quarterly ARPU YoY evolution
22.3€
Mobile ARPUQuarterly ARPU YoY evolution
10 * Churn differential between convergent B2C customers and total fixed BB B2C customers
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
-1.6%
+4.8%
-10.7%
Q2 17
+0.5%
Q1 17
-0.1%
Q4 16
-0.9%
Q3 16
-0.5%
Q3 17
+0.2%
PSTNMobile servicesBroadband servicesTotal
Q2 17
+1.4%
Q1 17
+1.6%
Q416
+0.8%
Q3 16
+1.6%
Q3 17
+1.4%
Q3 17
-0.7%
Q2 17
-0.5%
Q1 17
-0.8%
Q416
0.2%
Q3 16
-1.4%
Convergence (B2C)
Revenues Q3 yoy
+9%
Quarterly billed services ARPCO,
€/month
€62.5 +0.0% yoy
o/w Open : €65.0 ; +0.5% yoy
Number of mobile lines per
convergent offer
1.53 +0.04 yoy
o/w Open : 1.58 ; +0.05 yoy
-3.8 ptsChurn differential*
in m€ Q3 17 yoy cb 9m 17 yoy cb
Revenues 4,529 +0.2% 13,408 +0.2%
mobile services 1,635 -1.6% 4,800 -2.0%
mobile equipment 175 -0.8% 478 +4.4%
fixed services 2,581 +1.9% 7,718 +1.5%
other revenues 138 -6.7% 412 -2.4%
59% of FTTH net
adds are new
clients
FTTH ADSL and others
Q2 17
+111
Q1 17
+73
Q4 16
+116
Q3 16
+165
+320
Q3 17
Q3 2017 France commercial performanceOutstanding commercial performance on mobile net adds, mostly on high end offers
+108
Q3 17
+145
-36
+73
-38
+111
Q1 17
+73
-54
+127
Q4 16
+96
-49
+145
Q3 16
+130
+4
+126
Q2 17
Mobile contract net adds (in ‘000s) and churn rate
11.4%
Fixed BB net adds (in ‘000s)
net adds excl M2M quarterly churn rate in %
of B2C voice contract customers
have a 4G plan (+12pts yoy)69%of B2C mobile-voice contracts are
on SIM-only offers (+11pts yoy)73%
of FTTH connectable homes (+33% yoy)8.4m
of retail BB customers are on
high-end offers* (+3pts yoy)42%
of FTTH customers (+40% yoy)1.8m
*Play and Jet
94%of 4G population coverage (+10pts yoy)
#1 position
11.5%
59%of broadband B2C
customers
are on convergent
offers (+3pt yoy)
11
Q3 2017 SpainSolid revenue growth driven by growth in customer base and ARPU
Revenue evolution** (yoy in %)
6%
8%
10%
11%
9%
7%
0%
Q3 16 Q3 17
+8.3%
Q2 17Q1 17
+6.4%
+8.8%+8.5%
Q4 16
+7.9%+7.8%
+7.5%
Broadband services Mobile servicesTotal
12
32.2€
Broadband ARPU Quarterly ARPU, €/month
15.1€
Mobile ARPUQuarterly ARPU, €/month 15.1
13.5
Q416 Q2 17Q1 17
14.4 14.213.6
Q3 16
+5%
Q3 17
31.7 31.6
Q1 17
32.0
Q4 16
+4.5%
32.2
Q2 17 Q3 17Q3 16
30.8
Convergence (B2C)
Revenues Q3 yoy
+12%
Quarterly billed services ARPCO,
€/month
€58.7 +7% yoy
Number of mobile lines
per convergent offer
1.9 +0.03 yoy -8.6 ptsChurn differential*
* Churn differential between convergent B2C customers and total fixed BB B2C customers** Starting Q1 2017, fixed LTE is reported in fixed broadband (previously in mobile)
in m€ Q3 17 yoy cb 9m 17 yoy cb
Revenues 1,371 +6.4% 3,999 +7.9%
mobile services 734 +7.5% 2,070 +7.7%
mobile equipment 136 +7.2% 407 +11.0%
fixed services 501 +4.8% 1,519 +7.2%
other revenues 0 - 2 -
17.3% 19.9%
Fixed BB net adds (in ‘000s)
FTTH ADSL and others
Mobile contract net adds and churn rate
net adds in ‘000s quarterly churn rate in %
83%of broadband B2C
customers
are on convergent
offers (2pt yoy)
13
4G customers
(+25% yoy)9.0m
of B2C mobile voice contract are
on SIM-only offers99%
FTTH connectable homes
(+2.3m yoy)11.3m
TV customers
14% penetration of the FBB base593k
FTTH customers (x1.5 yoy)
50% penetration of the FBB base2.1m
B2C broadband convergent customers
(+106k yoy)3.1m
Q3 2017 Spain commercial performanceA balanced value vs. volume approach on a very competitive environment
+147+148+119
+170+135
Q2 17 Q3 17Q3 16 Q1 17Q4 16
-127 -138 -156-133 -148
+194 +199 +196+141 +137
+61
Q2 17Q4 16
+8
+40
Q1 17
+67
Q3 16 Q3 17
-11
Revenues Q3 yoy ***
+31%
Quarterly billed services ARPCO,
€/month
€24.0 -16% yoy***
Number of mobile lines
per convergent offer
1.9 +0.1 yoy -2.4 ptsChurn differential**
14
Q3 2017 PolandFixed BB performance reflects the success of VHBB strategy and convergent offers
** Churn differential between convergent B2C customers and total fixed BB B2C customers
*** YoY evolution calculated in local currency
yoy
2.2mFTTH connectable
homes+83%
Mobile contract net adds*
in ‘000s
+89+121
+190
+305
+263
Q3 17Q2 17Q1 17Q4 16Q3 16
* Excluding the impact of customer base revision on Q3 2016
47%Broadband B2C
convergent customers+15pt
2.4m +10%Fixed Broadband
customers
Fixed broadband net adds*
in ‘000s
+54+55+62
+53
+36
Q3 17Q2 17Q1 17Q4 16Q3 16
in m€ Q3 17 yoy cb 9m 17 yoy cb
Revenues 661 -1.3% 1,986 -1.0%
mobile services 288 -7.1% 873 -6.6%
mobile equipment 65 +13.3% 211 +28.7%
fixed services 271 -1.7% 802 -3.8%
other revenues 37 +39.0% 99 +35.3%
Convergence (B2C)
Q3 2017 Belgium & LuxembourgSolid customer net adds driven by convergence and attractive data offers
56% % of smartphone
penetration+12pts
15
Belgium mobile contract net adds
in ‘000s excluding M2M
+15
+21
+3
+9
+3
Q3 17Q2 17Q1 17Q4 16Q3 16
yoy
B2C Convergent net adds
in ‘000s
2.3m +2.2%Mobile contract customers
in Belgium
excl. M2M
in m€ Q3 17 yoy cb 9m 17 yoy cb
Revenues 316 +1.7% 934 +1.5%
mobile services 259 +0.6% 771 +1.2%
mobile equipment 29 +4.4% 82 -1.9%
fixed services 23 +27.7% 64 +19.2%
other revenues 5 -31.3% 16 -20.8%
Belgium contract ARPU
Quarterly ARPU yoy growth
Q3 17
+2.7%
Q2 17
+1.0%
Q1 17
+1.1%
Q4 16
+2.8%
Q3 16
-0.7%
+16
+13
+15
+13
+7
Q2 17 Q3 17Q1 17Q4 16Q3 16
16
Revenue growth boosted by Romania (yoy in %)
Q3 2017 Central European countriesSolid service revenue growth boosted by data monetization and equipment sales
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Q2 17Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q3 17
+6.9%
+10.4%
+5.0%
+0.4%
Total Central Europe Romania MoldovaSlovakia
Central Europe mobile contract net adds (excl. M2M)
in ‘000s
* At comparable base as wireless for fixed is reported in fixed broadband starting Q1 2017
4652
16
102
63
Q4 16 Q1 17 *Q3 16 Q3 17Q2 17
4.2m 4G customers+48%
yoy
357k +25%*Fixed Broadband
customers
in m€ Q3 17 yoy cb 9m 17 yoy cb
Revenues 447 +6.9% 1,290 +5.8%
mobile services 353 +2.6% 1,026 +2.0%
mobile equipment 41 +44.8% 113 +40.7%
fixed services 38 +17.1% 112 +12.4%
other revenues 14 +12.5% 38 +14.1%
11 countries*
with 4G available
10m customers
Q3 2017 Africa & Middle EastRevenues growth kept improving driven by Data and Orange Money
17
+60%Orange Money revenue growth yoy in Q3
34.6mcustomers
10.7m active customers
in last 30 days
+38%Data revenue growth yoy in Q3
New business drivers continue to sustain growth
Revenues growth yoy in %
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Q3 17
3.1%
Q2 17
2.7%
Q1 17
0.7%
Q4 16
1.6%
Q3 16
2.5%
in m€ Q3 17 yoy cb 9m 17 yoy cb
Revenues 1,264 +3.1% 3,756 +2.2%
mobile services 1,062 +4.7% 3,151 +4.0%
mobile equipment 17 +36.1% 53 +16.5%
fixed services 167 -7.4% 499 -9.4%
other revenues 17 -6.8% 52 +8.4%
* excluding operations under equity method
18
Revenues per segment (yoy in %)
Q3 2017 EnterpriseRevenues almost stabilized, sustained by mobile equipment growth
-9.0%
6.0%
-6.0%
-3.0%
9.0%
12.0%
0.0%
3.0%
+10.7%
-0.5%+0.8%
-3.4%
Q316 Q1 17
-3.8%
Q2 17Q4 16 Q3 17
MobileTotal Voice Data IT & integration services
Mobile contract net adds excl.M2M (mostly in France)
+17% yoy
Cyberdefense
Q3 revenue growth
+37% yoy
Cloud
Q3 revenue growth
+32
+39
+14+15
+22
Q4 16 Q117 Q217 Q317Q3 16
in m€ Q3 17 yoy cb 9m 17 yoy cb
Revenues 1,778 -0.5% 5,393 -1.3%
voice 362 -3.4% 1,090 -4.5%
data 666 -3.8% 2,040 -3.3%
IT&IS 488 +0.8% 1,515 +2.3%
mobile 263 +10.7% 748 +2.5%
New equipment
contract with a French
customer
Section three2017 guidance
2017 guidance confirmed
20
Group
adjusted
EBITDA
Net debt /
Adjusted
EBITDA
Telecom
M&A
policy
Dividend
2017 > 2016
Around 2xin the medium term
€0.65
comparable
basis
2017 dividend*
Selective with focus on existing
footprint
December 7th, 2017**
2017 interim of €0.25*subject to shareholders’ approval **ex-date December 5th, record date December 6th,
payment date December 7th
7 December 2017
Investor Day
Appendices
Appendix: B2C + B2B Orange customers in France
23
Mobile KPIs (in thousands) Q1’16 Q2’16 Q3’16 Q4’16 Q1’17 Q2’17 Q3’17
Mobile customers (excl. MVNOs) 28,612 28,966 29,508 30,033 30,489 31,150 31,624
Contract 24,581 25,069 25,759 26,486 27,090 27,842 28,433
M2M 4,277 4,611 5,115 5,711 6,228 6,829 7,068
Excluding M2M 20,305 20,457 20,644 20,775 20,862 21,012 21,365
Prepaid 4,030 3,897 3,748 3,547 3,398 3,308 3,191
Mobile volume market share (in %)* 35.1% 35.3% 35.4% 35.5% 35.6% 35.8% 35,9%
Fixed KPIs (in thousands) Q1’16 Q2’16 Q3’16 Q4’16 Q1’17 Q2’17 Q3’17
Broadband customers 10,830 10,923 11,056 11,151 11,220 11,290 11,402
o/w xDSL 9,698 9,686 9,693 9,643 9,587 9,548 9,517
o/w FTTH customers 1,075 1,181 1,308 1,452 1,579 1,690 1,835
Broadband market share (in %)* 40.0% 40.1% 40.3% 40.2% 40.2% 40.2% 40.3%
Net adds broadband market share (in %)* 45.3% 64.2% 58.1% 36.8% 30.3% 49.5% 50.0%
* Numbers for the latest quarter are company estimates.
Revenues yoy evolution
FranceGroup
Spain Poland Central European countries
Africa & the Middle-East
Enterprise
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Q3Q2
+1.4%
Q1
2017
+0.8%
Q4
+1.0%
Q3
+0.8%
Q2
0.0%
Q1
2016
+0.6%
Q4
+0.1%
Q3
+0.5%
Q2
-0.2%
Q1
2015
-0.9%
Q4
-0.6%
Q3
-2.3%
Q2
-3.4%
Q1
2014
-3.8%
+0.9%
yoy
Europe
Belgium & Luxemburg
24
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
Q3Q2Q1
17
Q4Q3Q2Q1
16
+0.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Q3Q2Q1
17
Q4Q3Q2Q1
16
Q4Q3Q2Q1
15
Q4Q3Q2Q1
14
+3.1%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Q3Q2Q1
17
Q4Q3Q2Q1
16
Q4Q3Q2Q1
15
Q4Q3Q2Q1
14
+3.9%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Q3Q2Q1
17
Q4Q3Q2Q1
16
-0.5%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Q3Q2Q1
17
Q4Q3Q2Q1
16
Q4Q3Q2Q1
15
Q4Q3Q2Q1
14
+6.4%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Q3Q2Q1
17
Q4Q3Q2Q1
16
Q4Q3Q2Q1
15
Q4Q3Q2Q1
14
-1.3%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Q3Q2Q1
17
Q4Q3Q2Q1
16
Q4Q3Q2Q1
15
Q4Q3Q2Q1
14
+1.7% 7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
0.0%
-2.5%
-5.0%
-7.5%
Q3Q2Q1
17
Q4Q3Q2Q1
16
Q4Q3Q2Q1
15
Q4Q3Q2Q1
14
+6.9%
25
in €m Q3’16 cb Q3’17 actual 9m’16 cb 9m’17 actual
Adjusted EBITDA 3,548 3,622 9,397 9,599
Restructuring and integration -10 - -350 -75
Litigations -3 - 37 -61
Labour related -34 -29 -114 -87
o\w Senior Part Time -34 -29 -114 -106
Portfolio review and others - - -8 -5
Reported EBITDA 3,501 3,593 8,962 9,371
EBITDA adjustments