Options for Forest

Management for Coping with

Climate change in South Asia

Prof N H Ravindranath

Indian Institute of Science

Bangalore -12

Forests and South Asia

(Total area = 76 Mha; 19% of land area)

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

B anglades h India Nepal P akis tan S ri L anka

Are

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2000

2005

Why worry about climate change and Forests

�Forest accounts for nearly 4 billion ha

globally and nearly 20% in south Asia.

�Forests provides a number of services� biodiversity

� raw materials for industry

� livelihoods to large number of forest dependent and rural

communities

� Forests are critical for protection of from floods,

cyclones - e.g., MANGROVES

� Forests provide large mitigation potential

� Climate change could impact biodiversity &

mitigation potential

� Adaptation requires long-term planning.

Outline for

presentation

1. Climate change projections.

2. Projected impacts of

Climate change on forests.

3. Adaptation options /

strategies / policies.

4. Options for Forest

management under

changing climate

Temperature RiseRainfall

Projections

IPCC – 2007; IMPACT OF CLIMATE

CHANGE ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS

� Observed discernable impact of climate change

on forests and forest functions – literature

� A-third of the known biodiversity is likely to face

the risk of extinction - 2100

� Likely changes structure and functions such as

diversity, maintenance, productivity, carbon

sequestration, water cycling, etc., projected

� Enhanced natural disturbances such as fires,

pests and extreme climatic events

ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE IMPACTS ON

FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN INDIA

�Hadley Centre climate model

� HadRM3 regional climate model

outputs

�GHG Scenarios

� A2 (740 ppm) and B2 (575 ppm CO2)

�Vegetation model for assessing

climate impacts

� BIOME 4; Equilibrium model

�Initiated dynamic global vegetation

model based assessment.

BIOME MODEL BASED IMPACTS ON

FOREST BIOMES

(B2 SCENARIO)

IBIS - Impact of climate change on forest types under climate change scenario SRES A2 (1975 - 2085)

1: tropical evergreen forest / woodland, 2: tropical deciduous forest / woodland, 3. temperate evergreen broadleaf forest / woodland, 4: temperate evergreen conifer forest / woodland, 5: temperate deciduous forest / woodland, 6: boreal evergreen forest / woodland, 7: boreal deciduous forest / woodland, 8: mixed forest / woodland, 9: savanna, 10: grassland / steppe, 11: dense shrubland, 12: open shrubland, 13: tundra, 14: desert, 15. polar desert / rock / ice

PERCENTAGE OF GRIDS UNDER DIFFERENT

FOREST TYPES UNDERGOING CHANGE

under A2 & B2 GHG SCENARIOS

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Impact of climate change on forest in

Pakistan

� Shifts in forest types; Cold and temperate

conifers will show a northward shift, pushing

against the cold conifer/mixed woodland,

� The average NPP increase of different biomes,

over the base year of 1990 is estimated as 12% in

the year 2020 and 19% in the year 2040-50

(calculated) under the climate change scenarios.

Mitigation and adaptation –

options exist in forest sector

Why Adaptation? When uncertainty in Impact

Assessment

� Impacts will be irreversible; e.g., loss of biodiversity

� Inertia in response to changing climate

�Long gestation period in development & implementation of adaptation practices

�Waiting for full knowledge – high risk

�Large ecological, economic and social implications

Focus on “win – win” adaptation options

Potential Adaptation practices

� Anticipatory planting of species

- along latitude and altitude

- promote assisted natural regeneration

� Promote mixed species forestry

- species differ in temperature tolerance.

� Develop and implement fire protection and

management practices.

� Adopt thinning, sanitation and other practices.

� Promote in situ and ex situ conservation of genetic

diversity.

� Develop drought and pest resistance in

commercial tree species.

� Adopt sustainable forest management practices.

Adaptation Policies

� Incorporate adaptation practices in forest planning:

� short term and long term.

� Promote forest conservation:

� since biodiversity rich forest are less vulnerable due to

varying temperature tolerance.

� Halt forest fragmentation

� to promote migration of species.

� Link protected areas and create corridors

� to promote migration.

� Promote community forestry.

� Capacity building to develop and implement adaptation

strategies.

Limitations

�Limitations of reliable regional climate

projections

�Limitations of dynamic vegetation models

specific to tropical forests

�Limitations of data on vegetation, soil,

water, etc parameters for modeling

�Absence of adaptation models.

�Absence of long term monitoring studies� Development and Adoption of DGV models to assess

� transient responses not assessed

Impact of Climate Change on other Natural

Ecosystems

1. Inland Wetlands

2. Mangroves

3. Coral reefs

4. Montane grasslands

5. Animal species; habitats of mammals and other species

6. Mountain ecosystems

Limited or no studies in south Asia

Based on published studies & IPCC conclusions

“all natural ecosystems likely to be adversely impacted”

Research NETWORK;

Impacts and Adaptation & Mitigation

1. Ecological research on plant and animal species and communities in relation to climate variability and change

2. Dynamic vegetation modeling of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems, biodiversity and adaptation

3. Impact of climate change on mitigation potential, carbon sinks and adaptation

4. Assessment of Adaptation practices, strategies and policies

6. Policy Analysis Research and Support for Climate Negotiations