Opportunities for TNE in Sub-Saharan Africa

Guy DoughtyConsultant

guy@doughtyconsulting.co.uk+447771728717

Opportunities in Africa

• Overall average student mobility has remained steady at >2%

• Grew through increases in enrolment, not in mobility rates

• Many of those conditions are changing , and increasing competition

• Africa is a region where there is huge potential –

Opportunities in Africa

Measured by:• Demographic trends• Lack of domestic public capacity to fulfil

demand • Economic Patterns

SSA lags behind in tertiary enrolment

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 20090

10

20

30

40

50

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18.120.0

22.524.0

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EAP ECA LAC MNA SAS SSA WLD

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, July 2011Note: SAS 2009 is 2008 data.

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Shortfall in Nigerian capacity…Current regional shortfall of 9 million?

Demographic Trends

• By 2020 – 4 countries will account for over 50% of the world’s 18 22 population: India, China, US and Indonesia‐

• Further 25% will come from Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Philippines, Mexico, Egypt and Vietnam

• By end of century half of 18-24 year olds in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Significant decline for China (over 20m), Russia, Germany and South Korea

Africa will be the fastest growing region over the next 40 years. All the Growth will come from Sub-Saharan Africa

Key sources of tertiary age students in 2020

Change and decline in key markets

Additionally…

• Many countries have rapid economic growth: latest figures 13 of top 30 in the region.

• World Bank (and others) stress the importance of tertiary education for future development

• Growing m/c – with a willingness to fund tertiary education privately

It all leads to the need for international collaboration:

• To meet demand, to grow and develop, need large expansion of tertiary opportunities

• Constrained choices• Increased opportunities across a range of

areas:– Increased recruitment– TNE– Research– Capacity building

The benefits of in-country delivery

• Income generation• Deepening internationalisation • As a feeder – part of recruitment strategy:

– Increase size of potential market – way to increase undergraduate enrolments

– Academic planning– Better prepare the students

Finally:

• BIS, BC priority markets for recruitment/TNE include only Botswana and Mauritius in the ‘average opportunities’ category, and Nigeria in the below average opportunities’ category

• In fact, Nuffic note, many of major destinations have very similar target markets – going to be pretty crowded!

However…

But little attention to Africa – aside from Nigeria (forecast 8.3% PG growth to 2024 – BC Oct 2014)• Lack of existing TNE• Regulatory regimes and government policies• Economic factors• Social Factors

Why hasn’t there been more TNE?

• Cultural heritage – Francophone, Anglophone, Lusaphone

• Instability• Low income• Difficulties of ‘doing business’• Regulatory regimes• Fears over academic quality and • Difficulties of finding partners

And 7 of the top 20 in Africa?

Details:

• Total 2010/11 = 102,140 increase 20% previous year.

• decline in distance learning down to 13355 from 14515 the previous year.

• Dominance of OB/ACCA particularly strong:• of 503,985 the Oxford Brookes partnership

accounts for 239,895 (47.7%).• In SSA: of 102,140 - 82,600 are with the Oxford

Brookes Partnership – a staggering 81%.

Country of activity

TNE 10/11(ex OxB)

TNE09/10

TNE08/09 % Diff 08-10 2011 int students

1, Nigeria 22,425

(4,5150 16,930 15,670 43% 38,851

2, Ghana15755

(1,895) 13640 13420 17% 7,845

3, Kenya 10,980(1,740) 9,060 8,750 25% 13,286

4, Mauritius 8,775

(1,570) 6,630 6,440 36% 7,631

5, Egypt 8,720

(8,405) 7,455 6,660 31% 11,627

6. Zambia 7,355

(1060) 6,555 6,400 15% 4,951

7. Uganda 6,880(810) 5,765 5,605 23% 3,364

8.South Africa 4,640

(3035) 3,930 2,870 62% 6,166

9. Zimbabwe 4,545(290) 3,215 3,115 46% 19,658

10. Ethiopia 4,380(810) 3,005 3,030 45% 5,093

11. Botswana 3,270

(1405) 3,065 1,800 82% 8,562

12. Malawi 3,145(410) 2,620 2,610 20% 2,053

TNE in Africa

• HESA statistics indicate traditional forms relatively undeveloped:– Few IBCs– Few franchise or validations – notable exceptions

in Ghana, Kenya, Botswana and Nigeria– Most examples are DL/on-line with or without

tuition support – Uni of London, Heriot-Watt– Dominated by non-degree awarding bodies: ACCA

(80), ABE (160), NCC (60), NCUK

Finding Partners

• Match aims and values:• Public sector – research, training, capacity-

building etc – but depending on policy environment little incentive for franchise etc.

• But, for feeder colleges – good private schools used to teaching that level

• Sizeable and developing private sector college and university system – many thirsty for partnerships of various types

Regulatory Environment

• Patience, resilience, willingness to engage and develop relationships, willingness to work with local strategic priorities

• Not a significant problem for foundation level programmes or programmes that don’t lead to a degree (ABE, NCC, NCUK)

• One of explanations of on-line/tuition support model

Academic Quality

• Key concern – fear of degree mills. • Clearly issue: recent eg of University of Wales

indicates what can go wrong. • Always a potential for franchise/validation

programmes• Easiest method to guarantee the fundamental:

comparability of standards is to adopt the London Uni, ABE, Heriot-Watt approach – curriculum, assessments and marking by the awarding body.

But, recent examples show it is possible:

• Coventry University – demonstrates huge numbers possible for right programmes in right institution and pricing

• Sunderland in Kenya• Kaplan International College in Lagos• Right partners, long-term view from outset,

investment in quality and partner development

Case Study: KICL

• CNAU – delivers first year of programme with guaranteed progression – range of top quality partners

• Invested in premises• Worked closely with authorities• Academics with international qualifications• Quality regime based on module leader in NEU

responsible (in collaboration) for curriculum and assessment

• 180 students – many from Amnesty programme and academically mixed

• Many operational/academic culture challenges – need for adaptation to local requirements

• Created an environment where students developed remarkably quickly

• 160 were able to complete the programme – 89% - and 100% visa success rate

• Chose a wide range of majors…not 70% business. • Tracking their progress through CNAU feedback has been

extremely positive

                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Source: Standard Bank