Opportunities Challenges TomorrowTomorrows’s Global Food ... Food (Pillar).pdf · FAO‐STAT,...

Opportunities and Challenges for Tomorrow’s Global Food SystemTomorrow s Global Food System

D G PillDr. Greg PillarAssistant Professor of E i t l S iEnvironmental Science

and Chemistry

Thrive.


Part I The Current SituationPart I – The Current Situation…

Dr. Greg PillarA i P f fAssistant Professor of Environmental Science

and Chemistry

Thrive.

The Food Situation…..eo

ple

s 1000

1050

rshe

d P

Cou

ntrie

s

950

1000

nder

nour

opin

g C

900

ns o

f Un

n D

evel

o

800

850

Mill

ion i

750

800

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

FAO, 2009

Near East &North Africa

DevelopedUndernourished by region*…..

Latin America

North Africa(33)

Countries(16)

India(231)

(45)

China(123)

S b S hSub‐SaharanAfrica(212)

Asia and the Pacific**

(189)(212) (189)

**excluding China and India FAO, 2008*based on 2005 data

The Food Situation…..

People who live on:

12%88%88%

less than $1.00 per dayp ymore than $1.00 per day

World Bank Developer Indicators, 2008


40%People who live on:

60%60%

less than $2.00 per dayp ymore than $2.00 per day



People who live on:

80%

20%

less than $10.00 per daymore than $10.00 per day



FAO, 2008

1200

The Food Situation…..ne

1000Wheat (US)Maize (US)Rice (Thailand)

per T

onn

600

800Sorghum (US)

S D

olla

r p

400

600

US

200

Y99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0

Year

FAO, 2009Price of wheat, maize, rice and sorghum between 1999 and 2009

United States: The Revis family of North CarolinaFood expenditure for one week: $341.98

Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008

Chad: The Aboubakar family of Breidjing CampFood expenditure for one week: 685 CFA Francs or $1.23

Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008


More than 40 countries have experienced protests dueMore than 40 countries have experienced protests dueto food prices over the last 3 years.

“Pasta” protests in Italy

“Tortilla” protests in MexicoTortilla protests in Mexico

www.standeyo.comwww.msnbc.comwww.usatoday.comwww.bbc.com

“Bread” protests in Eygpt

“Mud Cookies” in Haiti where the cost of 2 cups of rice was selling at $0.60 in January 08, up50% from the previous year. These cookies sell for about $0.05 each.

By Ariana Cubillos, AP


Part II The ChallengesPart II – The Challenges…


and Chemistry

Thrive.

10

Human PopulationPredicted

billi

ons)

8

10

6.5 billion

9.2 billionul

atio

n (b

6 2.5 billion

6.0 billion

man

pop

u

41 billion

1.6 billion

obal

hum

2

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Glo

0

Year2.5 people per second (80 million per year)

UN Population Division, 2009

Human Population10 0.6

ons) 8

on)0.5

tion

(bill

i

6

(ha/

pers

0.4

d po

pula

t

4

ble

land

(

0.3

Wor

ld

2 Arab

0.2

Y1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0 0.1

Earthtrends.wri.orgFaostat.fao.org/faostat

YearHuman PopulationHuman population (projected)Arable land

Demand….3 0

(%)

2.5

3.0

PREDICTED

ncre

ase

2.0

nnua

l in

1.5

erag

e an

0 5

1.0

8 7 6 5

Ave

0.0

0.5

Mackenzie, 2008Goldman Sachs, 2007

1979-1988

1988-1997

1997-2006

2006-2015

3 0

Supply (%

)

2 5

3.0 1967 - 19961997 - 2006

crea

se (

2.0

2.5

nual

inc

1.5

age

ann

1.0

Ave

ra

0.5

Maize Wheat Rice0.0

Mackenzie, 2008FAO‐STAT, 2008

5Supply & Demand….

to 1

965

3 0

3.5 Global Demand (Crop Product Consumption) Global Crop Yield

dexe

d

2.5

3.0

man

d In

2.0

nd D

em

1.5

Yie

ld a

n

1.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Y

modified from Doyle & Zavislak, 2008 Goldman Sachs, 2007

Supply & Demand….

HoardingSubsidies Import‐Dependence

modified from Doyle & Zavislak, 2008

Additional factors that have influenced supply and demandof cereal grains over the last few years

“Land Grabbing”….

Selling Land Purchasing Land

Von Braun & Meinzen‐Dick, 2009

Selling Land Purchasing LandCountries that have bought and sold land for

meat and/or grain production

Meat Production – Developing Countries3 5

3.0

3.5Beef and BuffaloPig

onne

s

2.0

2.5Poultry

ns o

f to

1.5

2.0

Mill

io

0.5

1.0

0.0

FAO‐STAT, 2009Year1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Meat Production ‐ Grain

Milk

Chicken

Eggshttp://www.ces.purdue.edu

Beef

Pork

0 5 10 15 20 25

Grain required (kg) to produce1 kg of protein

0 5 10 15 20 25

Meat Production ‐ Land

Chicken

Milk

Eggs

Pork

Milk

http://homepage.eircom.net

Beef

( 2)0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Land required (m2) toproduce 1kg of protein

Gary Kazanjian – NY Times

Meat Production ‐Water

Eggs

Chicken

gg

Milk

Pork

Beef

Milk http://www.macaulay.ac.uk

0 200 400 600 800

Water required (kg) to produce 1 kg of protein

Monoculture – Input Intensive Farming

Solar EnergyPrecipitation

Fossil Fuel Resources

Machines

PrecipitationCarbon Dioxide

Fertilization

SeedingPlant Nutrients& Amendments

Seed

Tillage

Seeding

IrrigationHarvest &Storage

WaterAgricultural Chemicals Pest Control

Purchased Inputs Farm Production

Biofuels

BiofuelsSweeteners

Cereals2%

Field corn surplusAlcohols

Sweet corn

Starch2%

Sweeteners2%

Sweet cornSeed4%

High fructoseCorn syrup

2%

Feed

y p5%

Feed55% Ethanol

30%

National CornGrowers Association, 2008

Total Annual U.S. Non‐Export Corn Production: 10.5 billion bushels

Global Climate Change

Graphic by the NY TimesData Source ‐ “Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country” by William R. Cine, Peterson Institute, 2007


FAO, 2008

Countries that have experienced reductions in Food production due to extreme weather events

(droughts and/or flooding) over the last several years


USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & NASA, 2005

Global Climate Change2 02.0

uctio

n to

ns) 1.5

Justin Mott, NY Times

an P

rod

met

ric

1.0

ustra

lia(m

illio

n

0.5A (

Wine GrapesRice

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20080.0

modified from NY Times, April 17, 2008

Amy Toensing

Soil Fertility / Degradation

Virginia Mason & Charles Blow, 2008

Are we approaching anotherAre we approaching another Food Revolution?Food Revolution?


Part III Needs and OpportunitiesPart III – Needs and Opportunities…


and Chemistry

Thrive.

Increase Supply – GMOshttp://www.american.com

http://www.macalester.edu

Increase Supply – GMOs

1 1 billion hectares

Land Use….1.1 billion hectares

1.0 billion hectares

0 20 billi h t

17% 14% 71%


b ll h 0 36 billion hectares

Sub‐SaharanAfrica

Central/SouthAmerica

China

49%77%

0.38 billion hectares0.21 billion hectares


46% 49%77%

IndiaUnitedS

EuropeStates

p

Planted CropsTotal Arable, Rain‐Irrigated Land World Soil Resources Report, 2000

Increase Supply – Land Management5

are) 4

per h

ect

3

tonn

es p

2

Yiel

d (

1

Malawi

EthiopiaNigeria

Uganda Malimbique

0

modified from Mackenzie, 2008

MaEth Nig Uga

Mozamb

Average National YieldPotential Yield (Plot Demonstrations)

Reduce Inputs – Increase Production

Solar EnergyPrecipitation

Fossil Fuel Resources

Machines

PrecipitationCarbon Dioxide

Fertilization

SeedingPlant Nutrients& Amendments

Seed

Tillage

Seeding

IrrigationHarvest &Storage

WaterAgricultural Chemicals Pest Control

Purchased Inputs Farm Production

“The history of every nation, is eventually written in the way in which it Soil Fertility / DegradationThe history of every nation, is eventually written in the way in which itcares for its soil”‐‐ Franklin D. Roosevelt

Photos by Jim Richardson, National Geographic

Increase Supply – Land Management

Bruno Glaser

Urban Farming

Justin Sullivan / Getty

Urban Farming

http://riotofreasons.blogspot.com

Urban Farming

http://greensgrow.org

http://www.verticalfarm.com/http://gliving.com http://greenbrooklyn.comhttp://activplace.com

Research and Development Spending12

h (%

)

10

121976 - 19811981 - 19911991 2000

grow

th

6

81991 - 2000

annu

al

4

6

ivera

ge a

0

2

Asia –

Latin America &Caribbean

Sub‐Saharan

Developingcountries

High‐income

Av

-2

0

PacificSub Saharan

Africa countries

Modified from Pardey, Beintema, Dehmer and Wood, 2006

Food Sovereignty

http://www.panna.orghttp://www.irri.org

Change the Culture

http://www.organicfood‐benefits.com/

Thank You!

Dr. Greg Pillar

Assistant Professor of Environmental Science

and Chemistry

Queens University of CharlotteQueens University of CharlotteWeb: http://www.queens.eduEmail: [email protected]

Thrive.

Opportunities Challenges TomorrowTomorrows’s Global Food ... Food (Pillar).pdf · FAO‐STAT,...

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