Opinion leaders in education, business, and the media predict trends that will impact independent education in the next two decades and suggest action steps for schools to take now.

NAIS Opinion Leaders Survey

A report from:

Forecasting Independent Education to 2025

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1. Malcolm Gladwell, The Tipping Point (New York: Little, Brown and Company, 2000) page 9. 2. The Tipping Point, page 259.

IntroductionIf something is predictable about the 21st Century, it is that change is constant and will occur at faster intervals than ever before in our history. In his book, The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell makes the following observations about change:

Three characteristics — one, contagiousness; two, the fact that little causes have big effects; and three, that change happens not gradually but at one dramatic moment — are the same three principles that define how measles move through a grade-school classroom or the flu attacks every winter. Of the three, the third trait — the idea that epidemics can rise or fall in one dramatic moment — is the most important, because it is the principle that makes sense of the first two and that permits the greatest insight into why modern change happens the way it does. The name given to that one dramatic moment in an epidemic when everything can change all at once is the “Tipping Point.” 1

With Gladwell’s forecast in mind, NAIS set out to survey opinion leaders in education, business, and the media to get their thoughts on what would be the “Tipping Points” for education in the next 20 years. Specifically, we asked them to identify what

demographic, social, economic, political, scientific, and technological trends would have the greatest impact on independent education over the coming decades. Further, we asked them to suggest what actions schools should take now to ensure that they survive these changing forces. See the survey methodology and participant list on the last page of this report.

This report summarizes their responses to this survey, supplemented by associated research, laid out in five sections:

1. The Demographic Reality2. Social Forces3. Economic Trends4. The Shifting Political Scene5. Science and Technology at Warp Speed

Each section summarizes the major trends as identified by respondents and concludes with a list of suggested actions that schools should consider now.

Even though some of these forecasts seem dire, independent school leaders have the opportunity now to introduce their own “Tipping Points” to alter the projected future. For, as Gladwell says,

If there is difficulty and volatility in the world of the Tipping Point, there is a large measure of hopefulness as well. Merely by manipulating the size of a group, we can dramatically improve its receptivity to new ideas. By tinkering with the presentation of information, we can significantly improve its stickiness. Simply by finding and reaching those few special people who hold so much social power, we can shape the course of social epidemics. In the end, Tipping Points are a reaffirmation of the potential for change and the power of intelligent action. Look at the world around you. It may seem like an immovable, implacable place. It is not. With the slightest push — in just the right place — it can be tipped. 2

NAIS encourages schools to use this information within their own community and contexts to prepare today for a profoundly different tomorrow.

The Five Keys to Sustainability in the 21st Century

The 21st Century is a time of challenge and opportunity for independent schools. To survive and thrive in these changing times, NAIS believes that schools will have to address these five dimensions of sustainability:

l Financial sustainability: becoming more efficient and less costly

l Environmental sustainability: becoming more green and less wasteful

l Global sustainability: becoming more networked internationally and less parochial in outlook

l Programmatic sustainability: becoming more focused on the skills and values that the 21st Century marketplace will seek and reward and less narrowly isolated in a traditional disciplines approach to teaching and learning

l Demographic sustainability: becoming more inclusive and representative of the school-aged population and less unapproachable financially and socially

Unless independent schools evolve to embrace a multi-dimensional approach to sustainability, they may not thrive in the future as well as they have in the past.

Patrick F. Bassett, NAIS President

“Schools will face a different set of pressures to become more diverse and more accessible — survival.”

Walter Burgin, Former Headmaster, The Mercersburg Academy

The ForecastThe coming decades foretell great change in our demographic makeup. As a population, we are aging and becoming much more racially diverse. Shifts in education levels and income will further polarize our society. And, depending upon where we live, our demographic future will be very different.

A Radically Different School-Aged Population

In its publication, The Projection of Education Statistics to 2013, the National Center for Education Statistics forecasts that the school-aged population nationally will see significant changes in the next decade.3 According to their projections:

l After increasing by about one-fifth between 1988 and 2001, enrollments in both public and private schools are expected to increase at slower rates between 2001 and 2013.

l [Enrollment in kindergarten through grade eight] increased 19 percent between 1988 and 2001 and is projected to increase 5 percent between 2001 and 2013, while enrollment in grades nine -12 increased 17 percent between 1988 and 2001 and is projected to increase 4 percent between 2001 and 2013.

l Enrollment in private [including independent] elementary and secondary schools increased 18 percent between 1988 and 2001 and is projected to increase 7 percent between 2001 and 2013 [as opposed to a projected 4 percent increase for public schools].

Further, a report produced for The Brookings Institution reports that,

For the first time in history, we are looking at a population that will have roughly equal numbers of people in every age group. And the combination of longer life expectancies and the preference for small families will make households without children currently in them, especially pre-retirement households, more numerous.4

We also are becoming a much more racially diverse society. According to the College Board’s Projected Social Context for Education of Children,

Whites will make up only 58 percent of those in the 0-24 age range by 2015 (compared with 70 percent in 1990). The share of Hispanics over the same timeframe is expected to nearly double from 12 percent in 1990 to 21 percent in 2015.5

Adding to that, Harold Hodgkinson of the Center for Demographic Policy forecasts that, “due largely to immigration and higher fertility rates among minorities, half of all school children will be non-Anglo American by 2025, and half of all Americans will be non-Anglo American by 2050.”6

Different Futures for Different States

As all politics are local, increasingly, so are demographic changes. According to Harold Hodgkinson,

Nothing is distributed evenly across the United States. Not race, not religion, not age, not fertility, not wealth, and certainly not access to higher education. For example, only five states will have a 20 percent (or more) increase in school enrollments in the coming decade; most states will have smaller increases and about nine states will have declines.

In addition, he notes that, “Suburban areas will see major increases in enrollments and student diversity, while enrollments in small towns and rural areas will remain flat and the populations in these areas will see increases in the percentage of elderly residents.”

The Demographic Reality

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3. U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projection of Education Statistics to 2013 (Washington: NCES, 2003). May 2005: http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projections/ch_1.asp4. Martha Farnsworth Riche, The Implications of Changing U.S. Demographics for Housing Choice and Location in Cities (Washington: The Brookings Institution, 2001). May 2005: http://www.brookings.edu/es/urban/riche/richeexsum.htm5. Georges Vernes and Richard Krop, Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015 (New York: The College Entrance Examination Board, 1999) pages 10-11. 6. Harold Hodgkinson, Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities (Reston, VA: National Association of Secondary School Principals, 2000).

Racial distribution will also differ greatly from state to state. Race and ethnicity statistics will be increasingly hard to interpret because, according to Hodgkinson, “the nature of race is changing.” He outlines five facts of which school leaders need to be aware in interpreting demographics:

l Fact One: About 65 percent of America’s population growth in the next two decades will be minority, particularly from Hispanic and Asian immigrants.

l Fact Two: The 2000 Census allows you to check as many race boxes as you wish, making the resulting statistics difficult to interpret. [He gives the example of Tiger Woods, who could check that he is Caucasian, Black, Indian, and Asian.]

l Fact Three: Three million black Hispanics in the United States, mostly dark-skinned Spanish speakers from the Caribbean, have checked Black on the census form because Hispanic is not a race.

l Fact Four: At least 40 percent of all Americans have some racial mixing in the last three generations, but only 2 to 4 percent [report] it on Census 2000.

l Fact five: Diversity is increasingly unevenly distributed. The 65 percent increase in diverse populations will be absorbed by only about 230 of our 3,068 counties, with California, Texas, and Florida getting about three-fifths of the increase.7

Poverty levels will also have a profound effect on certain states and localities. “Nationwide, the percentage of children under age 18 living in poverty declined from 18.3 percent to 16.6 percent during the 1990s.” However, since 2000, the number of children living in poor and low-income households began to increase again and in 2003, 17 percent of children under the age of 18 lived in poverty. The number of children living in poor and low-income households varies greatly by region and state. For example, in the District of Columbia, 31 percent of children live in poverty, while in Connecticut, 10 percent of children live in poverty.8

As schools plan for the future, they need to be aware of their unique demographic circumstances so they can tailor-make plans to their specific circumstances. Survival in the 21st Century will depend on knowing your potential student body and making appropriate changes to meet their needs.

Shifting Levels of Education

According to the College Board’s report, Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015,

The share of children to be raised in families with college-educated parents is projected to increase from 27 percent in 1990 to 30 percent in 2015. The number of these children is projected to increase by some five million. In terms of racial breakdowns:l Asians are projected to contribute proportionately

the most to this increase. More than half (51 percent) of Asian children are projected to be raised by college-educated parents in 2015, compared to 45 percent in 1990.

l By contrast, 15 percent of black children and 13 percent of Hispanic children are projected to be raised by such parents, compared to 12 and 10 percent in 1990, respectively.

l The share of non-Hispanic white children raised by such parents is projected to increase from 32 percent in 1990 to 38 percent in 2015.

Overall, “more than twice as many minority children are projected to be raised by college-educated parents in 2015 than in 1990.” Additionally, although the share of children in high-income families is projected to decline from 22 percent in 1990 to 21 percent in 2015, the number of these children is projected to increase. These children are projected to be predominantly non-Hispanic whites, although less so than in 1990 (73 percent in 2015 compared to 84 percent in 1990).9

Since one of the greatest predictors of interest in an independent school education is the education levels of parents, schools need to take note of who these families are in their own community and market to them appropriately.

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7. Harold Hodgkinson, “Educational Demographics: What Teachers Should Know,” Educational Leadership, December 2000/January 2001. 8. National Center for Children in Poverty, “State Profiles.” May 2005: http://www.nccp.org 9. Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015, pages 22-23.

Action Steps Independent Schools Should Take:

l Subscribe to publications that keep you attuned to changes in the world around you. Two good choices are: The Trend Letter: www.trendletter.com and Herman Trend Alert: http://www.hermangroup.com/trend_alert_signup.html.

l Bookmark national, state, and local census sites and visit them periodically to become familiar with changing demographic data sets.

l Chart and analyze your school’s enrollment history. From where do your students come geographically? What are your feeder schools? What is the racial makeup of your student body? What are the trends? How have they changed over time?

l Create your own enrollment projections for the next five to 10 years, identifying years when the school-aged population in your area will decline.

l Create your own demographic charts identifying how the economic, racial, and age demographics are changing for your surrounding community. Analyze how these changes will impact your school.

l Consider buying a tool like Microsoft’s® MapPoint® so that you can drill down to get demographic information by neighborhood. For more information on MapPoint, go to: http://www.microsoft.com/mappoint/default.mspx.

l Convene your school’s leadership team to brainstorm various strategies for dealing with future enrollment declines, economic turbulence, etc.

l Adopt proactive strategies now, such as creating longer student waiting lists to help your school survive enrollment downturns and economic volatility.

l Research new markets. Who is underrepresented in your school community currently? Conduct market research now to find out what perceptions they have about your school. Identify what you would have to change to attract these markets. For example, would offering transportation from a far suburb to your school make it attractive to students who traditionally don’t apply to your school?

l Find your niche. What is unique about your school? Do you convey this uniqueness well in your admissions materials? Are all of your online and print communications on message and consistent?

l Periodically survey your parents. Are they satisfied? What are their perceptions of the school? Are their perceptions in line with your messaging?

l Diversify your revenue streams. Being too tuition dependent will make it difficult for your school to survive tough times. Study other schools that have extensive summer school programs, are renting out facilities, or have created new businesses.

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Social Forces“Childhood as we knew it is long gone…”

Robert Hallett, Executive Director, The Edward E. Ford Foundation

The ForecastThe stress of our fast-paced society will put increasing pressures on children, creating a new set of emotional and physical problems, while a growing focus on the individual will increase demands on schools for customized services. Diversity of all types — religious, socioeconomic, racial, family structure, etc. — will further challenge our schools as they meet individual needs and build community at the same time. A new kind of worker will demand unprecedented flexibility, and balance will become the watchword of the 21st Century workforce.

The 24/7 Childhood

Rapidly accelerating technology use, greatly increased media exposure, and a “winner take all” social competitiveness are changing how independent school children experience childhood. Technologically adept and media literate, today’s children spend more time watching television and using computers than any previous generation. In a recent study by the Annenberg Public Policy Center,10 parents of children aged two to 17 reported that the average amount of time their children spend in front of a television or computer screen is more than four and a half hours per day. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that in 2000, nine-in-10 school-aged children had access to a computer at school or at home and that 73 percent of children who are online use e-mail.11 In The Impact of Home Computer Use on Children’s Activities and Development,12 researchers report that studies on the effects of computer use on children’s development are currently very limited. While some studies show positive effects on academic performance and cognitive skills, other studies raise concerns about increases in loneliness, depression, obesity, and aggression. These effects must be explored so we can better understand which aspects of technology use are beneficial to children and which are harmful.

Like the adults in their lives, more and more independent school children are living tightly scheduled lives. Under extreme pressures to achieve, some may experience burnout as early as elementary school while others may “make it” to an Ivy League school — overtaxed, stressed, and fragile — only to drop out in their freshman year.13 As academic pressures mount and technology use becomes more pervasive, children may have limited time to play and interact socially with peers, may receive less exposure to the arts and humanities, and may be exposed to adult ideas and situations at an increasingly early age. Psychologists worry that social isolation and underdeveloped empathic abilities may lead children to value and enjoy life less.

As adults and children feel increasingly pressured and overscheduled, experts predict that Americans will place a greater emphasis on their families and on restoring balance in their lives. The Simplicity Movement, new attitudes toward work and family among Generation Xers, a movement among some colleges and universities to change admission criteria so there is less emphasis on AP classes and SAT scores, and increasing demands from employees for benefits that help them balance their work with their lives, are all signs of this quest for balance. Opinion leaders caution that while technology offers many benefits and the desire to achieve is commendable, these tools and aspirations must be tempered by a healthy, balanced life.

Educational Consumerism

Today’s school leader faces a parent population that is demanding more and more of schools. In NAIS’s 2004 Hot Issues Survey, school leaders cited a growing consumer attitude that is harder and harder to manage, demands for specialized and individualized services, and a rising demand for information that far surpasses the school’s ability to provide it. In addition, in this time of an uncertain economy, parents are asking more questions about the value-added of an independent education.

Heads of schools find it increasingly difficult to communicate effectively with parents. Many heads report feeling challenged by parents’ “consumeristic” attitudes toward their children’s education. As tuitions rise, parents’ demands and sense of entitlement also

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increase. Heads are very concerned about the anxieties and unrealistic expectations that some parents have for their children. They report seeing more and more cases where parents’ expectations for a child do not match the reality of the child’s abilities.

While some educators and business leaders subscribe to a “student as consumer” model of education — where parents and students are customers whose needs for products and services must be met — others embrace a “student as learner” philosophy that views schools as social institutions that prepare children to be democratic citizens. Some educators believe that educational consumerism interferes with the educational process and can limit a student’s motivation to learn. If students and parents approach an independent school education as an investment that will yield placement in certain colleges and universities, students may become so focused on test scores and specific college admissions criteria that they miss opportunities to flourish as learners and individuals.

On the other hand, sky-high tuitions increase parents’ expectations for measurable outcomes, and as customers, they deserve to understand and have input into what they are investing in. Many heads of school work to balance these two views in their schools’ missions, communications, and constituent relations. Schools must begin this work in the admissions process, communicating clearly with parents about the mission and culture of the school. Once admitted, this should be followed up by frequent communication between the school and parents. Further, parental education and outreach and parent contracts can help schools balance parents’ and students’ expectations with educationally and psychologically sound practices.

Societal Polarization

The 2004 U.S. elections painted a vivid picture of deep divisions in our society — red states versus blue states, gay rights activists versus religious fundamentalists, Iraq War supporters versus peace protesters. Americans seemed to lack a shared sense of values and vision for what it means to be an American. Political and religious extremist groups are becoming increasingly polarized and unable to build bridges across ideological chasms. Adding further to the deep divisions in our society, since 1969, economists have documented a long-term trend toward increasing income inequality and a shrinking middle class.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Income and Inequality (Middle Class) Narrative (2004),

Researchers believe that changes in the labor market and, to a certain extent, household composition affected the long-run increase in income inequality. The wage distribution has become considerably more unequal with workers at the top experiencing real wage gains and those at the bottom real wage losses. These changes reflect relative shifts in demand for labor differentiated on the basis of education and skill. At the same time, long-run changes in society’s living arrangements have taken place also tending to exacerbate household income differences.14

How will independent schools navigate these deep divides? In NAIS’s 2004 Hot Issues Survey, NAIS heads of school reported that it has become increasingly challenging for independent school leaders to balance and respond to different perspectives within their communities. Heads also fear that independent schools are becoming inaccessible to middle-income families and that they may lose the socioeconomic diversity of their student bodies. Strategic planning that accounts for socioeconomic diversity and sensitivity and conflict management training can help independent schools serve and build bridges among diverse segments of their own communities.

Diversity

Diversity of all types — including religious, racial, generational, socioeconomic, and family-type — will present new opportunities and challenges for independent schools. Hodgkinson notes that “By 2025, half of all school children will be non-Anglo American and by 2050, half of all Americans will be non-Anglo American.”15

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10. Emory H. Woodard and Natalia Gridina, Media in the Home 2000: The Fifth Annual Survey of Parents and Children (Philadelphia: Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania, 2000) page 19. 11. U.S. Census Bureau, Home Computers and Internet Use in the United States: August 2000 (Washington: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000) pages 5 and 10. 12. Kaveri Subrahmanyan, Robert E. Kraut, et. al, “The Impact of Home Computer Use on Children’s Activities and Development,” The Future of Children, Fall/Winter 2000. May 2005: http://www.futureofchildren.org/information2826/information_show.htm?doc_id=6982613. Wendy Mogel, “For Mature Audiences Only: Helping Teenagers Develop Into Happy Adults,” Independent School, Fall 2004, pages 50-58. 14. U.S. Census Bureau, Income Inequality (Middle Class)— Narrative (Washington: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004). May 2005: http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/midclass/midclsan.html 15. Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities

Demographers predict that the Hispanic-American population will grow exponentially, reaching 20.1 percent of the total population by 2030 and 24.4 percent of the total population by 2050.16 Although the impact of these changes will vary from region to region, they will be apparent on a national level.

In our schools, workplaces, and communities, we will also see increased generational, religious, and family-structure diversity. We currently have four generations with very different life experiences, expectations, and needs working side by side in the workplace. The younger of these generations are more racially diverse and technologically savvy than any previous generation. Increases in racial diversity have led to increases in religious diversity. Family types are also becoming more diverse, and independent schools are likely to see more same-sex couples, single parents, and divorced parents.

Some opinion leaders predict that socioeconomic diversity will replace racial diversity as a primary concern for independent schools. As middle-income families grow scarce, schools are finding it more difficult to retain the socioeconomic diversity of their student bodies. Schools will need to embrace all types of diversity and consider varying needs and communication styles in their strategic planning, communications, and programming.

Changing Family Structures and Needs

America’s families are changing. More children are living with a single parent, more unmarried couples are cohabiting, and more single parents and married couples with children are working. According to the U.S. Census Bureau,

Children live in a variety of family arrangements as a consequence of the marriage, divorce, and remarriage of their parents: Blended and extended families, half siblings and stepsiblings, and cohabiting parents are all part of the vocabulary of children’s living arrangements.17

In 2003,l 68 percent of children under the age of 18 lived

with two married parents (compared to 77 percent in 1980);

l 23 percent lived only with a mother;l 5 percent lived only with a father, and;l 4 percent lived with neither parent.18

The Employment Policy Foundation reports that there are currently more single parent and dual-earner households than at any time in history19, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that 71.1 percent of mothers with children under the age of 18 are in the labor force.20

With many individuals shuffling eldercare and childcare responsibilities with work responsibilities, there is an increased need for independent schools to provide quality before-school and after-school care — both for students and for faculty and staff members’ children. In their constituent outreach, communications, policies, and strategic planning, schools should consider a variety of household types with different needs.

Workplace Flexibility

Across the country, we are experiencing a sea change in how people work. The Society of Human Resource Management’s (SHRM) 2004 Benefits Survey found that almost 40 percent of companies surveyed offer teleworking and that 38 percent of nonprofit employers offer job sharing.21 In a recent SHRM job satisfaction survey (2004),22 employees ranked flexibility to achieve work/life balance as one of the top five most important factors related to job satisfaction. Further, in the 2003 MetLife Study of Employee Benefits Trends, “employees rated paid vacation days and holidays ahead of other key coverage. Time off is most important to two-thirds of employees (68%), ahead of dental (55%), life (42%) and disability (38%) insurance, and employer-funded pension plans (42%).”23

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16. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin (Washington: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004). May 2005: http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/ 17. U.S. Census Bureau, “From Birth to Seventeen: The Living Arrangements of Children,” The Population Profile of the United States: 2000 (Internet Release), (Washington: U.S. Census Bureau, 2001). May 2005: http://www.census.gov/population/pop-profile/2000/chap06.pdf 18. U.S. Census Bureau, “America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2003,” (Washington: U.S. Census Bureau, 2003). May 2005: http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/p20-553.pdf 19. “Shifting Household Structure at the Root of Work-Life Balance Issues,” The Balancing Act, October 28, 2004: page 1. 20 United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment Characteristics of Families Summary” (Washington: BLS, 2004). May 2005: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/famee.nr0.htm 21. M.E. Burke, 2004 Benefits Survey Report (Alexandria, VA: Society of Human Resource Management, 2004). 22. E. Esren, Job Satisfaction Series Survey Report (Alexandria, VA: Society of Human Resource Management, 2004). 23. The MetLife Study of Employee Benefits Trends (New York: MetLife, 2004), page 17.

As the labor shortage dramatically increases, employers must offer a flexible workplace in order to attract and retain top-quality employees. Parents with children, adult children of aging parents, baby boomers looking to work past the traditional retirement age, and individuals simply in need of more time are demanding that employers offer nontraditional schedules, teleworking, and other benefits that give them more personal time and a better quality of life. Innovative independent schools are meeting this challenge and increasing employee satisfaction through job-sharing, onsite daycare, teleworking, and part-time schedules.

Globalization

Technological advances, increased mobility and networking among people, and the liberalization of trade and investment policies have led to an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world. Educators predict that in the next 25 years, more international students will come to U.S. schools, and more U.S. students will seek educational experiences in other countries. Healthcare will also become a global trade.

A recent Trend Letter predicts,

Skyrocketing health care costs in North America and Western Europe will cause more patients to seek treatment in Asian and Eastern European facilities built to attract medical tourists. To address concerns about standards of care, overseas facilities are already applying for and receiving accreditation from the same organizations that accredit U.S. and European facilities. With more Americans going without adequate health insurance and waits for care in Canada and Britain years long, the global health care business will explode.24

Forecasters also predict a shift in economic power.

Throughout Asia, governments are working collaboratively and individually to secure the region’s position as a global economic superpower by forging bilateral and multilateral trade pacts among their nations, regardless of their political relationships. This shifting balance of economic and political power will create extraordinary opportunities for international business partnerships to flourish.25

Independent schools have the opportunity to be leaders in promoting and modeling educational sustainability and globalism as they develop globally-based

l Encourage faculty to follow research on the pros AND cons of childhood educational technology use.

l Communicate frequently and openly with parents. Educate parents about child development. Help them to establish age-appropriate, realistic expectations for their children. Teach them about the multitude of excellent colleges and universities that would be appropriate for their children.

l Conduct diversity, sensitivity, and conflict management training sessions in your community to help diverse constituent groups communicate and live with each other.

l Consider America’s changing family structures in your outreach and communications. Create a welcoming environment for all types of families. Consider offering childcare services for parents and staff. Stay open longer.

l Teach students to be global citizens. Educate them to understand the interdependence of humankind as well as the fragile nature of our planet. Develop a globally-based curriculum; begin foreign language instruction in preschool and teach students multiple languages.

l Change your marketing approach to accommodate different cultural and social nuances of a changing population. Market now for tomorrow.

l Be better and consistent about reporting on your product. Refine your value proposition.

l Offer a flexible workplace. Teleworking, part-time schedules, and job-sharing can help you recruit and retain faculty and staff.

l To help alleviate student stress, ensure that the adults at your school are modeling an effective work/life balance.

Action Steps Independent Schools Should Take:

curricula, build educational partnerships with schools and organizations around the world, and educate students to be global citizens.

24. “Health Care Becoming a Competitive Global Industry,” Trend Letter, January 31, 2005, page 5. 25. “Multilateral Trade Pacts Ensure Asia Becomes Economic Power,” Trend Letter, February 28, 2005, page 1.

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Economic Trends“The long-term relationship among tuition, financial aid, and family income demographics will determine whether independent schools represent a significant model with the potential for wider adaptation or an expensive implementation of worthy educational ideals primarily serving an affluent elite.”

Peter Aitken, CASE CURRENTS.26

The ForecastThe divide between the haves and have nots will widen greatly, with the middle class as we know it slowly disappearing. Schools will struggle with remaining financially viable yet affordable, while consumers will demand a strict accounting of what their money is buying. The aging of the population, coupled with a coming labor shortage, will place new financial burdens on schools as they compete to attract and retain high quality workers in a very competitive marketplace. Ethics will drive consumer decision making in response to the ethical scandals of the past decade.

A Two-Class Nation

“The spectrum of our lowest income families to our highest is so wide that I often find a common binding experience both important and difficult to manage.”

Lucinda Lee Katz, Head, Marin Country Day School

During the past two decades, income inequality has increased dramatically. Although income inequality varies by region, the gap between households in the top 20 percent of the income scale and households in the bottom 20 percent of the income scale has widened significantly in 45 states.27 In 2003, the top 20 percent of households received 49.8 percent of the nation’s aggregate income while the bottom 20 percent of households received 3.4 percent of the nation’s aggregate income.28 Income disparities are particularly great in cities such as the District of Columbia and Atlanta, where the average income of the wealthiest households is 30 times as high as the poorest households.29

Childhood poverty is also on the rise. In 2003, 38 percent of children under the age of 18 lived in low-income households and 17 percent of children lived in

households at or below the poverty level. Forty-two percent of children under the age of six lived in low-income households.30

Young children are especially vulnerable to the effects of poverty. According to the National Center for Children in Poverty’s Low Income and the Development of America’s Kindergartners:

In general, with some welcome exceptions, there is a dramatic linear pattern between family income and children’s developmental outcomes related to health, social, and emotional functioning and cognitive skills. The more income a family has, the better the children do.

What place will independent schools have in such a stratified society, and who will they serve? Opinion leaders worry that independent schools are becoming increasingly unaffordable to larger segments of the population. As tuitions rise and the gap between high-income and low-income households increases, tuitions comprise an increasingly larger percentage of low- and middle-income households’ total income.

This increasing income gap will create new complexities and challenges in student recruitment and retention, financial aid planning, tuition pricing, and

Family Income Tuition Tuition as % of Total Income

$18,000 $14,000 78%$34,000 $14,000 41%$54,500 $14,000 26%$86,900 $14,000 16%$86,900+ $14,000 Less than 16%

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2003 and 2004 Annual Social and Economic Supplements.Note: Income rounded to nearest $100.*Change from 2002.

Aging Population

America’s population is aging. Today, 12 percent of the total population is over 65 years of age. By 2050, it is projected that 21 percent of the total population will be over 65 years of age.32 Although it is too early to predict how the baby boom generation will alter our definitions of “typical” lifestyles for this age group, this large increase in the number of older people will affect social and political institutions.

Educators are concerned that as the population ages, the workforce will shrink and people will be unwilling to provide financial and political support for education. Although many baby boomers may opt to stay in the workforce past the age of 65, experts predict that the United States will face a shortage of skilled workers as the first wave of boomers reaches retirement age. As the baby boomer generation ages, health care and pension costs will greatly increase and cause social and financial institutions to become strained. These strains could lead to a decrease in political and financial support for K-12 education.

However, a healthy, retired population with disposable income also offers opportunities for independent schools. Like colleges and universities, schools can offer courses and international tours to reinvolve alumni of yesteryear. Programs that engage grandparents in the lives of their grandchildren can bring huge benefits to a school both economically and socially.

community building and outreach. Will independent schools continue to champion diversity and inclusivity or will they become institutions that serve only certain segments of society?

According to Bruce Shaw, NAIS board chair, “You can’t educate students to become ethical citizens of their community, much less the world, if you’re only capturing and catering to one little slice of America.”31 For the good of society and their own communities, independent schools will need to face these challenges head on and find ways to keep their doors open and affordable to a variety of households.

The Cost Versus Affordability Highwire

In NAIS’s 2004 Hot Issues Survey, heads of school identified financing the affordable independent school as the number one most challenging issue facing independent schools. The constant challenge of balancing operating expenses with affordable tuitions has been made even more difficult by expansion of staff, skyrocketing, unpredictable health insurance costs, the need to finance competitive salary and benefits packages for faculty and staff, escalating technology expenses, and facilities maintenance and renovation costs. Demands for new programs and services have also contributed to rising expenses.

In the past decade, technology expenses became a new expense item for many independent schools. According to NAIS’s StatsOnline National Tables, in 2003-2004, technology expenses comprised up to 1.5 percent (or $762 per student) of independent schools’ total expenses. Instructional support salaries have also grown. Day schools have seen an increase in instructional support salaries from 2.8 percent or $242 per student in 1993 to 5 percent (or $751 per student) in 2003.

As schools raise tuition to cover these expenses, they fear that they are losing the socioeconomic diversity of their student bodies and pricing themselves out of existence. How can schools achieve the balance they desire between operating expenses and affordability and remain viable for the future? If they are to stay dedicated to their missions of providing high-quality inclusive, diverse learning communities, schools will need to contain costs, ramp up their fund-raising efforts, and find alternate revenue streams that can help them keep tuitions affordable.

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26. Catherine O’Neill Grace, “A Balancing Act,” CURRENTS, July/August, 2004, pages 36-41. 27. Jared Berstein, Heather Boushey, et. al, Pulling Apart: A State-by-State Analysis of Income Trends (Washington: Economic Policy Institute, 2002). 28. U.S. Census Bureau, “Annual Social and Economic Supplement” 2003 and 2004, Current Population Survey (Washington: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004). 29. Angie Rodgers and Ed Lazere, “Income Inequality in the District of Columbia is Wider than in Any Major U.S. City,” (Washington: D.C. Fiscal Polity Institute, 2004). May 2005: http://www.dcfpi.org/7-22-04pov.htm30. “Basic Facts About Children Living in Poverty,” (New York: National Center for Children in Poverty, 2003). May 2005: http://www.nccp.org/pub_lic05.html 31. Catherine O’Neill Grace, “A Balancing Act,” CURRENTS, July/August, 2004, pages 36-41. 32. U.S. Census Bureau, “Facts for Features: Older American Month Celebrated in May” (Washington: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005).

Labor Shortage

The labor picture in the years directly ahead points to a turn from an employers market to an employees market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that “by 2010, we will have over 167,754,000 skilled jobs to fill.” Other studies by BLS forecast that “we will have only 157,721,000 people in the workforce to fill those jobs. Assuming that 5 percent of the workforce holds two jobs, we may still have as many as 2,146,950 jobs unfilled.”

A big part of this change is the wave of baby boomers poised to retire in the next 10 years. Although no one knows exactly how they will behave, just their sheer numbers could have a huge impact on the labor market. Independent schools currently employ many boomers as both teachers and administrators. How can independent schools reshape themselves to retain these dedicated educators and attract new employees?

Competitive independent schools will offer new work arrangements that improve their employees’ quality of life. Onsite daycare, job sharing, teleworking, and part-time schedules are just a few benefits that help employees balance the demands of work with the demands of their personal lives. Employers also gain important financial and organizational benefits from these flexible work arrangements. Employees who are given flexibility in the workplace are happier, more productive, and loyal to their employers. As the labor market becomes increasingly competitive, flexible work arrangements and work/life benefits are becoming essential employee recruitment and retention tools.

Ethical Consumerism

In conjunction with the Simplicity Movement, trend watchers have noted a rise in ethical consumerism and predict that this trend will grow stronger in the coming decades. Ethical consumers base their purchasing decisions on ethical criteria such as environmentalism and social responsibility. Socially responsible investment funds and the booming organic food and eco-tourism markets are already benefiting from this movement. Today, if you conduct a Google search on the term “ethical consumerism,” you will turn up over 11,000 sites worldwide. Ethical consumers are speaking out in dollars and cents and are making an impact in certain parts of the globe. For example, a December 2004 press release on Greenbiz.com, a U.K. website, states,

The growth in ethical consumerism in the U.K. is soaring and is now worth £24.7 billion ($43.3 billion) a year, according to the annual Co-operative Bank Ethical Purchasing Index, published this week. The EPI, a barometer of ethical spending in the U.K., shows that in 2003 U.K. consumers spent an additional £3.5 billion ($6.7 billion) in line with their values, an increase of 16 percent on the previous year. Over the same period, U.K. household expenditure increased by only 4 percent. The overall market share of ethical consumerism has increased by almost 40 percent in five years. The index now stands at 139 from a base of 100 when the EPI began in 1999.

Like business, independent schools may be called on to demonstrate social responsibility and environmental sustainability in their missions and actions. What are the impacts of school construction projects on the environment? Is a school teaching its students to become global citizens? If the trend toward ethical consumerism grows as expected, parents and students may select independent schools based on social and environmental criteria and may demand more information from schools on whether they are meeting these criteria.

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l Study financial models of other institutions, including other independent schools, colleges, universities, and for-profit businesses. How do they balance operational costs with what they charge for services?

l Analyze tuition costs and family income patterns in the geographic areas where you traditionally recruit students. Is the dynamic between family income and your tuition rates sustainable?

l Conduct cost/benefits analyses of programs and services. What should you ramp up and what should you retire?

l Face the labor shortage with creativity, flexibility, and a welcoming environment. Are there baby boomer faculty and staff who want to continue to work beyond the age of 65? Are current and prospective employees interested in part-time schedules, job-sharing, and teleworking? What benefits can you offer to help employees balance work responsibilities with life responsibilities?

l Make the case to your community about why K-12 education must remain a top priority. Build political and fund-raising support for your institution.

l Engage grandparents and alumni parents in your school in meaningful ways now and keep them involved in the life of the school. Consider everyone in your school community a lifelong customer for the school to serve in different ways at various points over their lifetimes.

l How green are you? Conduct an informal, internal audit of your school’s practices and where they fall on the “green” scale. Do you recycle? Is there an effort at your school to reduce paper waste? What is the environmental impact of your school on the surrounding community?

Action Steps Independent Schools Should Take:

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“The government will continue to seek accountability for schools and teachers, robing itself in more No Child Left Behind language. Independent schools need to take notice and get a seat at the table now.”

Robert Hallett, Executive Director, The Edward E. Ford Foundation

“The trend for accountability accelerates in all sectors, public and private. Independent schools that continue to stiff-arm the public’s need for data and its wanting to give feedback will suffer a backlash. Schools will need to become more results-driven and client-friendly as tuitions rise.”

Grant Wiggins, President, Authentic Education

The ForecastGovernment, opinion leaders, the public, and our own consumers will demand greater accountability and transparency from independent schools. Growing options for school choice will put unprecedented demands on schools to demonstrate the “value-added.” Political polarization will increase, but over time could lead to a return to a more centrist majority. And, trust in the news media will erode due to the consolidation of media ownership and recent press scandals, leading consumers to seek out other information outlets.

Government Intrusion

Government intrusion will continue to threaten our schools’ freedom and independence. Current demands for academic accountability have fueled federal legislation such as the No Child Left Behind Act and state mandates such as Ohio’s Ninth Grade Proficiency and Ohio Graduation test requirements. These regulations create academic standards and measurements that are at odds with the mission, practices, and curriculum of independent schools. In addition, government regulations make it difficult for independent schools to partner with public schools due to differences in the timing and content of public schools’ state-governed curriculum.

Adversarial relationships with government bodies can be especially damaging to schools’ freedom and independence. Many opinion leaders feel that independent schools must build partnerships with government agencies and become leaders, rather than protesters, in developing assessments for academic

achievement and accountability. Alumni tracking tied to the independent school accreditation process is a promising tool for academic data gathering, assessment, and accountability. Data from the U.S. Department of Education’s 2000 National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS) show that independent school graduates are successful in both academic and personal growth. They lead the nation in postsecondary achievement, express strong satisfaction with their careers, are skilled in technology, pursue healthy and active adult lives, and are successful in many other arenas.33 Independent schools have begun to gather data on their alumni to help market their schools and to measure the effectiveness of their educational programs. Developing alumni tracking guidelines within the independent accreditation process could help independent schools to self-regulate and provide the data necessary to respond to government and public requests for academic accountability.

According to NAIS President Patrick F. Bassett,

Better for us to write the rules now than for the government to do so…Freedom with a higher standard of accountability should be the independent school mantra. We have it within our means to transform accreditation beyond the “auditing” function of confirming a school’s success in achieving its mission and validating the self-study data it gathers for this periodic process. Accreditation in the future could, by a combination of new standards and objective measurements, fulfill a larger purpose than “quality assurance” for the school’s own constituents and membership organizations: It could demonstrate in measurable terms that independent schools meet and exceed the general public’s expectations for high quality education: i.e. schools that educate all the children within them so well that virtually every child succeeds.34

Government intrusion will continue to loom large as a threat to our schools’ freedom and independence. By building partnerships with government agencies and leading the charge in creating their own assessments for academic accountability, independent schools can preserve their curricular independence. As leaders in educational assessment, they will serve the entire educational community with models of outstanding, effective educational practices.

The Shifting Political Scene

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Homeschooling may also have a significant impact on independent school enrollments. In the same study by the National Center for Education Statistics, the growing market for homeschooling was described in this way:

Homeschoolers are not mirror images of students in either public or private schools, differing from both on a number of characteristics. Homeschoolers differed from students in public schools in that their parents tended to be better educated. They were more likely to be white and to live in two-parent households than were students in assigned or chosen schools. Homeschoolers differed from private school students in fewer ways than they differed from public school students, such as they were less likely than private school students to live in households with annual incomes over $75,000. They were also less likely to live in the Northeast and inside urban areas and more likely to live in rural areas.36

Rising independent school tuitions, an uncertain economy, and inadequate financial assistance may cause some families to look for alternatives to an independent school education. These families may choose public schools with gifted programs, charter schools, homeschooling, or church-subsidized private schools. As school choice options strengthen, grow, and gain recognition, independent schools will experience increasing competition for families and growing demand to demonstrate their “value-added.”

Political Polarization

Political partisanship and extremism will continue to plague Americans. As the nation witnessed in the 2004 elections, Republicans and Democrats have become more divided on key political issues such as national security, the social safety net, and affirmative action. Republicans and Democrats also demonstrate intense differences in the areas of personal religious commitment and satisfaction with personal finances.37

Financial Accountability

In reaction to the corporate misdeeds of Enron, Worldcom, and others, ethical financial accountability will become standard business practice. Public outcry against these scandals led to new ethical business legislation such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Although this legislation focuses on for-profit businesses, some officials predict that it is only a matter of time before similar legislation aimed at nonprofit organizations is passed.

Independent schools will be called on to establish formal policies and procedures for ethical financial practices. The public, parents, board members, and other constituency groups will demand that schools provide more transparent financial reporting and more data. As nonprofit leaders and educators, it is imperative that independent schools act as models of ethical behavior by adopting more formal financial accountability policies and procedures.

School Choice

Experts predict that the school choice movement will continue to grow and gain popularity. Public magnet and charter schools, virtual schools, homeschooling, and for-profit schools have expanded the options available to parents and students seeking an alternative to a traditional public or private school education. Voucher programs are also on the rise and are supported by President Bush and his administration. According to Trends in the Use of School Choice, 1993 to 1999, a report released by the National Center for Education Statistics,

The percentage of children enrolled in public, assigned schools for 1st through 12th grades decreased from 80 percent in 1993 to 76 percent in 1999. The decrease in public, assigned school enrollment was almost completely offset by an increase from 11 to 14 percent in public, chosen school enrollment. Enrollment in private, church-related schools remained relatively stable at 7–8 percent between 1993 and 1999 and enrollment in private, non church-related schools was about 2 percent in each year.35

Thus, increasingly parents are able to find the choice they want within the public school system.

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33. Values Added: The Lifelong Returns of an Independent School Education (Washington: National Association of Independent Schools, 2004).34. Patrick F. Bassett, “Accountability and Independence for Schools: Towards a Higher Standard,” Independent School, Fall 2004, pages 9 - 14.35. U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Trends in the Use of School Choice, 1993-1999 (Washington: NCES, 2003), page 1.36. Trends in the Use of School Choice, page 1. 37. The 2004 Political Landscape: Evenly Divided and Increasingly Polarized, (Washington: The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 2003).

Opinion leaders are concerned that polarization between parties will increase and that we will see more factions and special interest groups advocating for narrow causes. Increased polarization may cause people to oversimplify political positions and avoid critical thinking about and analysis of issues. Some hope that this trend “will eventually implode with a new, centrist majority emerging in power,” but many fear that our political system will become increasingly divisive.

Changing News Media Landscape

“Freedom of the press has been grossly compromised by the press being owned by fewer and fewer conglomerates. Independent sources can be unreliable as seen daily via the Internet information highways.”

Steve Hinds, Headmaster, The Meadowbrook School of Weston

During the past decade, the consolidation of media ownership and an expanded array of media options have radically altered the news media landscape. Consumer advocacy organizations caution that an increasingly small number of media conglomerates now own most television news media channels.

With the consolidation of media ownership, news outlets have become more focused on profitability, often downsizing the number of reporters they employ. [According to the Project for Excellence in Journalism, “Newspapers today have about 2,200 fewer full-time professional newsroom employees than they did in 1990... In radio, from 1994 through 2001, the number of full-time radio newsroom employees declined 44 percent.”]38 With fewer reporters to gather and distill the news, and greater competition for readers or viewers, journalists tend to focus on the news that appeals to the largest audience, rather than on local or specialized news. At the same time, consumers now have more news media options available to them than ever before – the Web, newspapers, radio, and cable, network, and local television channels. In Trends 2005, the Pew Research Center reports that “more people are turning away from traditional news outlets, with their decorous, just-the-facts aspirations to objectivity, toward noisier hybrid formats that

Action Steps Independent Schools Should Take:l Build partnerships with government agencies

and lead the charge in developing assessments for academic achievement and accountability.

l Conduct research to track your alumni. How many of your graduates complete four-year college degrees? In how many years after graduating from secondary school? What do they study? Do they go on to postgraduate education? This research will help you market your school, measure the effectiveness of your programs, and provide data to respond to requests for academic accountability.

l Pay attention to and become familiar with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Some say it is only a matter of time before a similar act is passed for nonprofit organizations. Prepare your institution by establishing formal policies and procedures for ethical financial practices.

l Be aware of school choice options in the region(s) where you traditionally recruit students. How will you compete with any of these options?

l Coalition building has grown in importance as a key skill for independent school leaders. What steps should you take to strengthen the skills you need to build coalitions among diverse factions of your constituency groups?

l Keep abreast of political and news media trends. How might these trends affect advocacy efforts for your school and for independent schools in general?

l Incorporate media literacy as a unit in language arts and social studies courses.

aggressively fuse news with opinion or entertainment, or both.”39

The corresponding trends of media consolidation and the proliferation of opinion-based news sources have led to a state of diluted objectivity and credibility in the news media. For independent schools, the challenge is two-fold: schools must learn how to tell their stories—what they’re doing and why—in a way that is compelling enough to break through the noise and reach new audiences. They must also devise new strategies for teaching students an increasingly vital skill: how to decipher the new media landscape.

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38. The State of the News Media 2004: An Annual Report on American Journalism (Washington: The Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2004). May 2005: www.stateofthemedia.com/39. “The Media: More Voices, Less Credibility,” Trends 2005 (Washington: The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 2005), page 42.

Science and Technology at Warp SpeedThe ForecastAdvances in science and technology will occur so rapidly that they will challenge our ability to deal with them, while at the same time offer unparalleled educational opportunities. As a society, we will have to deal with the consequences of neglecting our planet and its natural resources and undo some of the damage of past decades. Schools will be challenged to take a leadership role in the sustainability of our global future. Advances in medical research, most notably how the brain operates, will offer us brand new ways to look at teaching and learning.

Technology Will Transform Education

Online learning, handheld computers, robotics, nanotechnology, and new technological inventions will redefine the educational process and what it means to be a teacher and student. Educators will evolve from novice technology users who integrate technology into traditional pedagogy and curriculum to advanced technology users who harness the capabilities of technology to actually transform education. New delivery systems and technological applications enable both teachers and learners to customize, collaborate on, and globalize their educational experiences. As active, collaborative participants in the educational process, educators’ and learners’ roles will become blurred, with learners sometimes assuming the role of expert and leader and educators sometimes assuming the role of apprentice. These new models of teaching and learning enable both teachers and students to engage in creative, entrepreneurial ventures.40

Technological change will continue to accelerate and could outpace society’s ability to develop codes of ethics and safety around technological inventions and uses. Opinion leaders believe that independent schools will be called on to provide basic social and ethical education about how to interface safely with technology. It is vitally important that educators and psychologists conduct further research to better understand how to take advantage of technology’s enormous capabilities in ways that are safe and beneficial to child development. Independent schools will also be pressed to embrace new literacy competencies that include the ability to access, interpret, analyze, synthesize, and communicate in multimedia formats. In the words of George Lucas,

educators and students must learn “the language of the screen” in order to be functionally literate in a multimedia world.

Educational technology could offer independent schools new sources of non-tuition revenue in many areas, including intellectual property, branding, internationalism, and online learning. In the 2003 NAIS Parent Survey, 68 percent of independent school parents surveyed identified technology and computer skill development as very important or important to their child’s independent school academic experience. As Generation X and Millennial parents enroll their children in independent schools, they will expect them to demonstrate high levels of technological expertise in every aspect of the school from curriculum to communications to school administration. By capitalizing on their educational technology expertise, independent schools can enhance their marketing and outreach efforts and possibly develop new revenue sources.

Environmental Sustainability

The cumulative forces of a global population explosion and increasingly interdependent economic models among countries will exacerbate existing environmental problems to unprecedented levels. As the largest consumers of the earth’s natural resources, Americans are being called on to embrace environmental sustainability in all aspects of their lives, including their schools. Globally responsible, environmentally sustainable schools infuse sustainability into every aspect of their school community, including the curriculum, culture, school facilities, and school administration. Environmentally sustainable schools:

l Reduce waste and consumption through recycling and energy, water, and paper product conservation.

l Produce students who are prepared to be global leaders by educating students about ecology and how to live as environmentally responsible citizens.

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40. W.W. DeLamater and S.A. Ward, “Bassett Unbound,” Independent School Technology Letter, March 2002.

l Engage in ecologically and socially-sensitive purchasing such as eco-friendly lawn care, organic and socially-sensitive products, and ecologically-friendly building materials.

Independent schools will be called on to embrace these principles in support of the public purpose of independent schools, in response to demands from their local communities, and in reaction to students and parents who base their enrollment decisions on environmentally and socially responsible criteria.

Brain-Compatible Teaching and Learning

“There is hardly a field that offers more promise or excitement today than the cognitive neurosciences. The opportunities to implement major changes in education based on what we know today about how the brain works places educators in the position to venture into ways of learning only imagined a generation ago.”

Kenneth Wesson, Educational Consultant, Neuroscience

Advances in medical technology will continue to propel research on the human brain and significantly increase our understanding of how people learn. Constantly infused by new research findings, brain-based educational practices are updated on an ongoing basis with brain-based educators continuously learning new theories and adapting their teaching strategies. According to Kenneth Wesson,

Some of the many factors that are considered in brain-compatible teaching include:

l Geneticsl Genderl Prenatal care (nutrition, stimulation, etc.)l Early development (0-3 months)l Emotions/emotional statel Parentingl Early nutritionl Physical historyl Perceptionl Neurophysiologyl Memoryl Prior learning

l Dietl Prior experiencesl Self-esteeml Formal educationl Stress factors41

Each year, new findings in cognitive psychology and neuroscience will be infused into teacher preparation, curriculum, instruction, student assessment, and the classroom environment. The works of Howard Gardner, Daniel Goleman, Kenneth Wesson, and others have already been influential in reshaping the independent school classroom, while programs like Mel Levine’s Schools Attuned are assisting educators in using neurodevelopmental content in their classrooms to create success at learning and to provide hope and satisfaction for all struggling students.

As new areas in brain research are explored and discoveries are made, teachers and schools will adapt and update their approaches to maximize learning opportunities for all of their students.

Medical Advances

Advances in the areas of stem cell research, pharmacology, disease eradication, and health care could profoundly alter longevity and quality of life. Opinion leaders are hopeful that new developments in these areas will lead to people living longer, productive lives where they will be active contributors to society well into their retirement years. Although pharmacology holds much promise, opinion leaders are concerned about the increased use of psychotropic medication by children. While these drugs can help children manage emotional and behavioral problems, psychologists and educators have questioned whether these medications are being over-prescribed and are truly addressing the root of children’s problems. Why are we seeing increases in cases of ADHD? Are there social and environmental factors that are contributing to children’s emotional and behavioral problems?

As advocates for children, independent schools will face new ethical dilemmas and will demand more information and research on medical developments that affect children.

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41. Kenneth Wesson, “Memory and the Brain: How Teaching Leads to Learning,” Independent School, Spring 2002, page 80.

l Involve your faculty in an ongoing dialogue about the pros and cons of educational technology. How can it be used to transform education? Encourage faculty to conduct research on technology’s effects on teaching and learning.

l Incorporate technology ethics and safety education as part of your curriculum.

l How does your school define literacy? Are students required to be literate in multimedia? Teach your students the “language of the screen.”

l Explore intellectual property, branding, internationalism, and online learning as possible revenue streams. What does your school do better than anyone else that would be beneficial to share with a larger market?

l Go green. Involve your entire community in reducing waste and consumption at your school. Infuse environmental sustainability into your school culture and curriculum. Prepare your students to be globally and environmentally responsible leaders.

l Provide professional development opportunities for faculty, staff, and parents to learn about brain-based teaching and learning.

l Continue to advocate for the children you serve. Demand more information and research on health issues that affect children. Build partnerships with organizations and individuals who focus on children’s health and safety.

Action Steps Independent Schools Should Take:

Survey MethodologyIn December 2004, NAIS surveyed 87 opinion leaders in the fields of education, child development, journalism,

psychology, philanthropy, business, employee recruitment, ethics, and governance. These individuals were contacted by e-mail and invited to complete an online survey. Survey questions asked participants to identify

key demographic, social, economic, political, and science and technology trends that would impact independent education in the next 20 years. Twenty-eight individuals responded, producing a response rate of 32 percent.

Respondents were given the option to identify themselves or to remain anonymous.

The results of this survey complement NAIS’s strategic initiatives research efforts. To best serve the needs of its members, NAIS conducts environmental scanning and market research on a continuous basis. Findings from NAIS research on independent school leadership, hot issues, trends, parents, and school operations supplemented

the survey results and are included in the summary.

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Mimi Baer, Executive Director, California Association of Independent Schools (CA)

Reveta Bowers, Head of School, The Center for Early Education (CA)

Sarah Hardesty Bray, Senior Editor, The Chronicle of Higher Education

Walter Burgin, Former Headmaster, The Mercersburg Academy (PA)

John F.A.V. Cecil, Vice Chairman, Carolina Day School (NC)

David Chojnacki, Executive Director, Near East South Asia Council of Overseas Schools

Ralph Davison, Headmaster, Greensboro Day School (NC)

Lynn V. Friedman, Clinical Psychologist/Organizational Consultant

Catherine O’Neill Grace, Writer, Editor and Co-author with Michael Thompson, Best Friends, Worst Enemies: Understanding

the Social Lives of Children

Robert Hallett, Executive Director, The Edward E. Ford Foundation

Nikki Heidepriem, President, Heidepriem & Mager

Steve Hinds, Headmaster, The Meadowbrook School of Weston (MA)

Todd R.W. Horn, Head of School, Kent Denver School (CO)

1620 L Street, NW Suite 1100Washington, DC 20036-5695

(202) 973-9700www.nais.org

America’s Independent Schools: Learning, Leading, Achieving.

Lucinda Lee Katz, Head, Marin Country Day School (CA)

Rushworth M. Kidder, President and Chairman, Institute for Global Ethics

Henry L. (Skip) Kotkins Jr., NAIS Trustee

Jay Mathews, Reporter and Columnist, The Washington Post

Carrie McIntyre, Vice President, Boxwood Technology

Meg Milne Moulton, Executive Director, National Coalition of Girls’ Schools

Richard F. Odell, President, The Leelanau School (MI)

Bruce Shaw, Director, Shady Hill School (MA) and Chair, NAIS Board of Trustees

Peter J. Stokes, Executive Vice President, Eduventures, Inc.

Agnes C. Underwood, Vice President/Managing Associate Search and Consulting Group, Carney, Sandoe and Associates

Kenneth Wesson, Educational Consultant, Neuroscience

Grant Wiggins, President, Authentic Education

Special thanks to those who participated in the survey

Other Research Reports from the National Association of Independent Schools Values Added: The Lifelong Benefits of an Independent School Education. This report is based on data from the U.S. Department of Education’s National Educational Longitudinal Study. It highlights some of the ways independent schools nurture intellectual

growth and help kids develop into healthy, active, and community-minded adults.

Independent Schools: Preparing Students for a Lifetime of Achievement. This report, using data from the Higher Education Research Institute, examines the attitudes and aspirations of recent independent school graduates.

To order any of these NAIS research reports or other NAIS publications to share with your school community,

boards of trustees, and other constituents, go to www.nais.org or call (800) 793-6701. Bulk discounts are available.

© 2005 by the National Association of Independent Schools. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form – except for brief quotations (not to exceed 1,000 words) in a review or professional work – without permission from the publisher, NAIS.