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Transcript of Operation Research Book
Operation Research
Amity University
MBA IB The course aims to provide a thorough understanding of the essential features, relevance, application, tools and techniques of Operations Research. The objective of this course is to develop the understanding of models building and quantitative approach to decisions making in the functions of the management of any organization with special focus on International Business. It also aims to develop the understanding of the various optimization techniques used for decisions making in the functions of the management of any organization.
Semester Two
Ms. Sonia Singh
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Preface
This is an attempt to the integration of operation research with business practices for the
purpose of facilitating Decision Making and Forward Planning by the management. As
operation research provides as a set of concepts, these concepts furnish us the tools and
techniques of analysis. Scientific methods have been man’s outstanding asset to pursue a
number of activities. The application of O.R. methods helps in making decisions in
complicated situations. O.R. helps in making a better decision by studying the advantages
and disadvantages of alternative courses of actions.
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Course Contents:
Module 1: Introduction to Operations Research
Nature and Significance
Applications and Scope
Advantages, Opportunities and Shortcomings of OR Models
Module 2: Linear Programming
Introduction, Application, Advantages and Limitations of Linear Programming
Linear Programming Model Formulation
Graphical Solution Methods
Simplex Method
Big-M method
Module 3: Transportation and Assignment Problems
Introduction, Mathematical Model of Transportation problem
Methods for finding Initial Solution
Test for Optimality
Introduction to Assignment Problem
Methods of finding solution to Assignment Problem
Module 4: Theory of Games
Two-Person Zero-Sum Games
Pure Strategies
Mixed Strategies
Module 5: Network Analysis
Network Diagram
Critical Path Method
PERT
Probability in Network Analysis
Module 6: Inventory Theory
Introduction, Meaning of Inventory Control
Functional Role of Inventory
Factors Involved in Inventory Problem Analysis
Inventory Model Building: Concept of EOQ
Inventory Control Models Without Shortages
Inventory Control Models With Shortages
Module 7: Queuing Theory
Introduction, Essential Features of a Queuing System
Performance Measures of a Queuing System
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Probability Distributions in Queuing System
Classification of Queuing Models: Single Server Queuing Models , Multi-Server Queuing Models
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Unit 1 :Introduction to operation research
This chapter provides an overall view of subject of operation research. It covers some general idea on the subject, thus providing a perspective. 1.1 Development of operation research :
(i) Pre –world War II : The roots of operation extend to even early 1800s , it was in 1885 when Ferderick W Taylor emphasized the application of scientific analysis to method of production , that the real start took place. Taylor conducted experiments in connection with a simple shovel. His aim was to find that weight load of ore moved by shovel which would result in maximum of ore moved with minimum of fatigue. In 1917, A .K. Erlang , a Danish mathematician , published his work on the problem of congestion of telephone traffic. The difficulty was that during busy periods , telephone operators were unable to handle the calls they were made , resulting in delayed calls. The well known economic lot size model is attributed to F.W. Harris , who published his work on the area of inventory control in 1915. During the 1930s, H.C. Levinson , an American , applied scientific , analysis to the problems of merchandising . His work included scientific study of customers’ buying habits , response to advertising and relation of environment to the type of article sold. The industrial development , brought with it ,a new type of problems called executive –type problems. These problems are a direct consequences of functional division of labour in an organization. In an organization , each functional unit performs a part of the whole job and for its successful working , develops its own objectives. The production department wants to have maximum production , associated with the lowest possible cost. This can be achieved by producing one item continuously. The marketing department also wants a large but diverse inventory so that a customer may be provided immediate delivery over a wide variety of products. The finance department wants to minimize inventory so as to minimize the unproductive capital investments ‘tied up’ in it. Personnel department wants to hire good labour and to retain it. This is possible only when goods are produced continuously for inventory during the slack period. All the executive type problems can be solved by using OP techniques. The decision which is in the best interest of the organization as a whole is called Optimal decision and the one of the best interest of an individual department is called sub-optimal decision.
(ii) World War II : During World War II , the military management in England called on a term of scientists to study the strategic and tactical problems of air and land defence. Many of these problems were of executive type. The objective was to find out the most effective allocation of limited military resources to the various military operations and to the activities within each operations. The name operations research was apparently coined in 1940 because the team was carrying out research on operations.
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(iii) Post World War II : Immediately after world war , the success of military teams attracted the attention of industrial managers who were seeking solutions to there problems. In U.K. the critical economic situation required drastic increase in production efficiency and creation of new markets. In U.S.A. situation was different . Most of the war-experienced OR workers remained military services. Industrial executives did not call for much help because they were returning to the peace- time situation. OR has been known by a variety of names in that country such as operational analysis , operations evaluation ,system analysis ,decision analysis ,decision science, quantitative analysis and management science. To increase the impact of OR , the OR Society of America (ORSA) was formed in 1950. Today , the impact of operation research can be felt in many areas. This is shown by the ever increasing number of educational institutions offering this subject at degree level. The fast increasing number of management consulting firms speaks of the popularity of the subject. Some of the Indian organizations using OR techniques are : Indian Airlines , Railways , Defence Orgabizations , Fertilizer Corporation of India , Delhi Clioth Mills , Tata Iron and Steel .Co. etc.
1.2 Definitions of OR : Many definitions of OR has been suggested from time to time .Some of the definitions suggested are: 1) Or is a scientific method of providing executive departments with a
quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control. – Morse & Kimball
2) OR is a scientific approach to problem solving for executive management. – H.M.Wanger
3) OR is an experiment and applied science devoted to observing , understanding and predicting the behaviour of purposeful man-machine systems ; and OR workers are actively engaged in applying this knowledge to practical problems in business , government and society.- OR Society of American.
4) OR is the art of winning wars without actually fighting them. –Auther Clark It may be noted that most of the above definitions are not satisfactory because of the following reasons : i) They have been suggested at different times of development of
operations research and hence emphasize only its one or other aspect. ii) The interdisciplinary approach which is an important characteristic of
OR is not included in most of its definitions. iii) It is not easy to define OR precisely as it is not a science representing
ant well-defined social, biology or physical phenomenon. 1.3 Characteristic of OR : a) System or executive orientation of OR : This mean that an activity by any part of an organization has some effect on the activity of every other part. The optimum operation of one part of a system may not be the optimum operation for some other part. Therefore , to evaluate any decision , one must identify all possible interactions and determine their
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impact on the organization as a whole. When all factors affecting the system (organization) are known , a mathematical model can be prepared. A solution of this model will optimize the profit to the system as a whole. Such a solution is called an optimum (optimum) solution. b) The use of Interdisciplinary Teams : The second characteristic of OR study is that it is performed by a team of scientist whose individual members have been drawn from different scientific and engineering discipline . For example , one may find a mathematician , statistician , physician , psychologist , economist and an engineer working together on OR problems. Thus the OR team can look at the problem from many different angles in order to determine which one of the approach is the best.
1.4 NATURE OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
As its name implies, O.R. involves research on (military) operations. This
indicates towards the approach as well as the area of application of the field.
Thus it is an approach to problems that concern how to co-ordinate and control
the operations or activities within an organization. Following is such example
which need further elaboration.
In order to run an organization effectively as a whole, the problem arises is of
co-ordination among the conflicting goals of its various functional departments.
For example, consider the problem of stocks of finished goods. The various
departments of the organizations would like to handle this problem differently. To
the marketing department, stock of a large variety of products are a means Of
supplying the company's customers with what they want, and when they want it.
Clearly, a fully stocked warehouse is of prime importance to the company. The
production department argues for long production runs preferably on a smaller
product range, particularly if there is a significant time lost when production is
switched from one variety to another. The result would again be a tendency to
increase the amount of stock carried but it is, of course, vital that the plant should
be kept running. On the other hand, the finance department sees stocks kept
capital tied up unproductively and argues strongly for their reduction. Finally,
there appears the personnel department who sees great advantage for labour
relations by having a steady level of production. All there are acting through their
specialization in what they would claim to be in the interests of their organization
that they may come up with contradictory solutions. To assimilate the whole
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system, the decision-maker must decide the best policy keeping in view the
relative importance of objectives and validity of conflicting claims of various
departments from the perspective of the whole organization.
Operations research seeks the optimal solution to a problem not merely one
which gives better solutions than one currents in use. The decision taken by the
decision-maker may not be acceptable to every department but it should be
optimal for a large portion of the total organization. In order to obtain such types
of solution, the decision-maker must follow up the effects and interactions of a
particular decision.
Operations research can be used to formulate the problem in terms of a
model, which on solving gives the required solution. While constructing the
model, intuition and judgement based on experience, which are valuable assets
for any practitioner, should also be incorporated.
1.5 NECESSITY/SIGNIFIANCE OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH IN INDUSTRY
After having studied as to what is operation research, we shall now try to answer
as to why study OR or what is its importance or why its need has been felt by the
industry.
As already pointed out, science of OR came into existence in connection with the
war operations, to decide the strategy by which enemy could be harmed to the
maximum possible extent with the help of the available warfare. War situation
required reliable decision-making. But its need' has beer. equally felt by the
industry due to the following reasons:
(a) Complexity: In a big industry, the number of factors influencing a decision
have increased. Situation has become big and complex because these factors
interact with each other in complicated fashion. There is, thus, great uncertainty
about the outcome of interaction of factors like technological, environmental,
competitive, etc. For instance, consider a factory production schedule which has
to take into account
(i) customer demand,
(ii) requirements of raw materials,
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(iii) equipment capacity and possibility of equipment failure, and
(iv) restrictions on manufacturing processes.
(b) Scattered responsibility and authority: In a big industry, responsibility and
authority of decision-making is scattered throughout the organization and thus
the organization, if it is not conscious, may be following inconsistent goals.
Mathematical quantification of OR overcomes this difficulty also to a great extent.
(c) Uncertainty: There is a great uncertainty about economic and general
environment. With economic growth, uncertainty is also increasing. This makes
each decision costlier and time consuming. OR is, thus, quite essential from
reliability point of view.
(d) Knowledge explosion: Knowledge is increasing at a very fast rate. Majority of
the industries are not up-to-date with the latest knowledge and are, therefore, at
a disadvantage. OR teams collect the latest information for analysis purposes
which is quite useful for the industries.
1.6 SCOPE OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
Having-known-the definition of OR, it is easy to visualize the scope of operations
research. When we broaden the scope of OR, we find that it has really been
practised for hundreds of years even before World War II. Whenever there is a
problem of optimization, there is scope for the application of OR. Its techniques
have been used in a wide range of situations:
1. In Industry
In the field of industrial management, there is of chain of problems starting from
the purchase of raw materials to the dispatch of finished goods. The
management is interested in having an overall view of the method of optimizing
profits. OR study should also point out the possible changes in the overall
structure like installation of a new machine, introduction of more automation, etc.
OR has been successfully applied in industry in the fields of production, blending,
product mix, inventory control, demand forecast, sale and purchase,
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transportation, repair and maintenance, scheduling and sequencing, planning,
scheduling and control of projects and scores of other associated areas.
2. In Defence
OR has a wide scope for application in defence operations. In modern warfare
the defence operations are carried out by a number of different agencies, namely
airforce, army and navy. The activities performed by each of them can be further
divided into sub-activities viz. operations, intelligence, administration, training and
the like. There is thus a need to coordinate the various activities involved in order
to arrive at optimum strategy and to achieve consistent goals. Operations
research, conducted by team of experts from all the associated fields, can be
quite helpful to achieve the desired results.
3. Planning
In both developing and developed economies, OR approach is equally
applicable. In developing economies, there is a great scope of developing an OR
approach towards planning. The basic problem is to orient the planning so that
there is maximum growth of per capita income in the shortest possible time, by
taking into consideration the national goals and restrictions imposed by the
country. The basic problem in most of the countries in Asia and Africa is to
remove poverty and hunger as quickly as possible. There is, therefore, a great
scope for economists, statisticians, administrators, technicians, politicians and
agriculture experts working together to solve this problem with an OR approach.
4. Agriculture
OR approach needs to be equally developed in agriculture sector on national or
international basis. With population explosion and consequent shortage of food,
every country is facing- the problem of optimum allocation of land to various crops
in accordance with climatic conditions and available facilities. The problem of
optimal distribution of water from the various water resources is faced by each
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developing country and a good amount of scientific work can be done in this
direction.
5. Public Utilities
OR methods can also be applied in big hospitals to reduce waiting time of out-
door patients and to solve the administrative problems,
Monte Carlo methods can be applied in the area of transport to regulate train
arrivals and their running times. Queuing theory can be applied to minimize
congestion and passengers' waiting time.
OR is directly applicable to business and society. For instance, it is increasingly
being applied in LIC offices to decide the premium rates of various policies. It has
also been extensively used in petroleum, paper, chemical, metal processing,
aircraft, rubber, transport and distribution, mining and textile industries.
OR approach is equally applicable to big and small organizations. For example,
whenever a departmental store faces a problem like employing additional sales
girls, purchasing an additional van, etc., techniques of OR can be applied to
minimize cost and maximize benefit for each such decision.
Thus we find that OR has a diversified and wide scope in the social, economic
and industrial problems of today.
6 OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND DECISION-MAKING
Operations research or management science, as the name suggests, is the
science of managing. As is known, management is most of the time making
decisions. It is thus a decision science which helps management to wake better
decisions. Decision is, in fact, a pivotal word in managing. It is not only the
headache of management, rather all of us make decisions. We daily decide
about minor to major issues. We choose to be engineers, doctors, lawyers,
managers, etc. a vital decision which is going to affect us throughout our lives.
We choose to purchase at a particular shop a decision of relatively minor
importance.
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Decision-making can be improved and, in fact, there is a scope of large scale
improvement. The essential characteristics of all decisions are
(i) objectives,
(ii) alternatives,
(iii) influencing factors (constraints).
Once these characteristics are known, one car think of improving the
characteristics so as to improve upon the decision itself.
Let us consider a situation in which a decision has been taker to see a particular
movie and the problem is to decide the conveyance. Three alternatives are
available: rickshaw, autorickshaw and a local bus.
In the first level of decision-making, autorickshaw is chosen as the mode of
conveyance just by intuition, i.e., it is decided at random. Evidently, it is a highly
emotional and qualitative way of decision-making.
In the second level of decision-making, the three conveyances are compared and
it is decided qualitatively that autorickshaw will be preferred since, though a little
costlier, it is timesaving and more comfortable.
In the third level of decision-making, the three alternatives are compared and it is
suggested that autorickshaw will be chosen, as it will be taking only !/?rd time
than an ordinary rickshaw and shall be only 10% costlier while more comfortable.
The local bus is rejected since it would not reach the theatre in time at all.
Though outcome of all these decisions is the same, still we can judge the quality
of each decision. We may brand the first decision as 'bad' since it is highly
emotional, while we may call the second decision as 'good' since it is scientific
though qualitative. The third decision is doubtlessly the best as it is scientific and
quantitative.
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It is the scientific quantification used :n OR, which helps management to make
better decisions. Thus in OR, the essential features of decisions, namely,
objectives, alternatives and influencing factors are expressed in terms of
scientific quantifications or mathematical equations. This gives rise to certain
mathematical relations, termed as a whole as mathematical model. Thus the
essence of OR is such mathematical models. For different situations different
models are used and this process is continuing since World War II when the term
OR was coined. However, with the advance of science and technology, decision-
making in business and industry has become highly complex and extremely
difficult. The decision-maker is not only faced with a large number of interacting
variables, which at times do not lend themselves to neat quantitative treatment
but also finds them too numerous and dynamic. Above all he has to take into
consideration the actions of the competitors over which he has no control. This
complexity of decision-making made the decision-makers look for various aids in
decision-making. It is in these situations that operations research comes to our
help. The managers today make full use of the OR techniques in various
functional areas. It has been realised beyond doubt that intuition alone has no
place in decision making since such a decision becomes highly questionable
when it involves the choice among several alternatives. OR provides the
management much needed tools for improving the various decisions.
7 SCOPE OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH IN MANAGEMENT
Operations research is a problem-solving and decision-making science. It is a kit
of scientific and programmable rules providing the management a ‘quantitative
basis' for decisions regarding the operations under its control. Some of the areas
of management where OR techniques have been successfully applied are:
Allocation and Distribution
(a) Optimal allocation of limited resources such as men, machines, materials,
time and money.
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(b) Location and size of warehouses, distribution centres, retail depots, etc.
(c) Distribution policy.
1.7 APPLICATIONS OF VARIOUS OR TECHNIQUES
Operations research at present finds extensive application in industry, business,
government, military and agriculture. Wide variety of industries namely, airlines,
automobiles, transportation, petroleum, coal, chemical, mining, paper,
communication, computer, electronics, etc. have made extensive use of OR
techniques. Some of the problems to which OR techniques have been
successfully applied are:
1. Linear programming has been used to solve problems involving assignment
of jobs to machines, blending, product mix, advertising media selection, least
cost diet, distribution, transportation, investment portfolio selection and many
others.
2. Dynamic programming has been applied to capital budgeting, selection of
advertising media, employment smoothening, cargo loading and optimal routing
problems.
3. Inventory control models have been used to determine economic order
quantities, safety stocks, reorder levels, minimum and maximum stock levels.
4. Queuing theory has been helpful to solve problems of traffic congestion,
repair and maintenance of broken-down machines, number of service facilities,
scheduling and control of air traffic, hospital operations, counters in banks and
railway booking agencies.
5. Decision theory has been helpful in controlling hurricanes, water pollution,
medicine, space exploration, research and development projects.
6. Network techniques of PERT and CPM have been used in planning,
scheduling and controlling construction of dams, bridges, roads, highways and
development and production of aircrafts, ships, computers, etc.
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7. Simulation has been helpful in a wide variety of probabilistic marketing
situations. It has been, for example, used to find NPV (Net Present Value)
distribution for the venture of market introduction of a new product.
8. Replacement theory has been extensively employed to determine the
optimum replacement interval for three types of replacement problems:
1.9 MODELS IN OR
A model, as used in operations research, is defined as an idealized
representation of the real life situation. It represents one or a few aspects of
reality. Diverse items such as a map, a multiple activity chart, an autobiography,
PERT network, break-even equation, balance sheet, etc. are all models because
each one of them represents a few aspects of the real life situation. A map, for
instance, represents the physical boundaries but normally ignores the heights of
the various places, above the sea level. The objective of the model is to provide
a means for analysing the behaviour of the system for the purpose of improving
its performance.
1.10 LASSIFICATION SCHEMES OF MODELS
The various schemes by which models can be classified are
1. By degree of abstraction
2. By function
3. By structure
4. By nature of the environment
5. By the extent of generality
6. By the time horizon
1. By Degree of Abstraction
Mathematical models (viz. linea programming formulation of the blending
problem or transportation problem) are the most abstract type since it requires
not only mathematical knowledge but also great concentration :o get .he idea of
the real-life situation they represent.
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Language models (cricket or hockey match commentary) are also abstract type.
Concrete models (model of earth, dam, building or plane) are the least abstract
since they instantaneously suggest the shape or characteristics of the modelled
entity.
2. By Function
Descriptive models explain the various operations in non-mathematical language
and try to define the functional relationships and interactions between various
operations. They simply describe some aspects of the system on the basis of
observation, survey or questionaire, etc. but do not predict its behaviour. The
organisational chart, pie diagram and layout plan describe the features of their
respective systems.
Predictive models explain or predict the behaviour of the system. Exponential
smoothing forecast model, for instance, predicts the future demand.
Normative or prescriptive models develop decision rules or criteria for optimal
solutions. They are applicable to repetitive problems, the solution process of
which can be programmed without managerial involvement. Linear programming
is a prescriptive or normative model as it prescribes what the managers must
follow.
3. By Structure
(a) Iconic or Physical Models
In iconic or physical models, properties of the real system are
represented by the properties themselves, frequently with a change of
scale. Thus, iconic models resemble the system they represent but differ
in size; they are images. For example, globes are used to represent the
orientation and shape or various continents, oceans and other
geographical features of the earth. A model of the solar system, likewise,
represents the sun and planets in space. Iconic models of atoms and
molecules are commonly used in physics, chemistry and other sciences.
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However, these models are usually scaled up or down. For example, in a
globe, the diameter of the earth is scaled down, but its shape, relative
sizes of continents, oceans, etc., are approximately correct. On the other
hand, a model of the atom is scaled up so as to make it visible to the
naked eye. Iconic models may be two-dimensional (photographs, maps,
blue prints, paintings, sketches of insects, etc.) or three-dimensional
(globes, automobiles, airplanes, etc.). Ordinarily it is easier to work with
the model of a building, earth, sun, atom, etc., than with the modelled
entity itself. Iconic models are quite specific and concrete but difficult to
manipulate for experimental purposes. They represent a static event.
Characteristics that are not relevant are not included. For instance, in the
models used for the study of atomic structure, the colour of the model is
irrelevant since it contributes no help in the study of the atom. Another
limitation of iconic model is that it is either two-dimensional or three-
dimensional. If a situation involves more than three dimensions, it cannot
be represented by an iconic model.
(b) Analogue or Schematic Models
Analogue models can represent dynamic situations and are used
more often than iconic models since they are analogous to the
characteristics of the system under study. They use one set of properties
to represent some other set of properties which the system under study
possesses. After the model is solved, the solution is re-interpreted in
terms of the original system.
For example, graphs are very simple analogues. They represent properties like
force, speed age, time, etc., in terms of distance. A graph is well suited for
representing quantitative relationship between any two properties and predicts
how a change in one property affects the other.
An organizational chart is a common schematic model. It represents the
relationships existing between the various members of the organization. A man-
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machine chart is also a schematic model. If represents a time varying interaction
of men and machines over a complete work cycle. A flow process chart is
another schematic model which represents the order of occurrence of various
events to make a product. Contour lines on a map are analogous of elevation.
Flow of water through pipes may be taken as an analogue of the `flow' of
electricity through wires. Similarly, demand curves and frequency distribution
curves used in statistics are examples of analogue models. In analogue
computers quantities are represented by voltages and they are, therefore, aptly
termed analogue.
Transformation of properties into analogous properties increases our ability to
make changes. Usually it is easier to change an analogue than to change an
iconic model and also lesser number of changes are required to get the same
results. For example, it is easier to change the contour lines on a two-
dimensional chart than to change the relief on a three-dimensional one. In
general, schematic models are less specific and concrete but easier to
manipulate than iconic models. They can represent dynamic situations and are
more commonly used than the iconic models.
(c) Symbolic or Mathematical Models
Symbolic models employ a set of mathematical symbols (letters,
numbers, etc.) to represent the decision variables of the system under
study. These variables are related together by mathematical
equation(s)/inequation(s) which describe the properties of the system. A
solution from the model is, then, obtained by applying well developed
mathematical techniques. The relationship between velocity, acceleration
and distance is an example of mathematical model. Similarly, cost-
volume-profit relation is a mathematical model used in investment
analysis.
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In many research projects, all the three types of models are used in
sequence; iconic and analogue models are used as initial approximations, which
are, then, refined into symbolic model. Mathematical models differ from those
traditionally used in physical sciences in two ways:
1. Since OR systems involve social and economic factors, these models use
probabilistic elements.
2. They consist of two types of variables; controllable and uncontrollable.
The objective is to select those values for controllable variables which optimize
some measure of effectiveness. Therefore, these models are used in decision
situations rather than in physical phenomena.
In OR, symbolic models are used wherever possible, not only because they are
easier to manipulate but also because they yield more accurate results. Most of
this text, therefore, is devoted to the formulation and solution of these
mathematical models.
4. By Nature of the Environment
(a) Deterministic Models
In deterministic models variables are completely defined and the
outcomes are certain. Certainty is the state of nature assumed in these
models. They represent completely closed systems and the parameters of
the system have a single value that does not change with time. For any
given set of input variables, the same output variables always result . EOQ
model is deterministic; here the effect of changes in the batch sizes on the
total cost is known. Similarly linear programming, transportation and
assignment models are deterministic models.
(b) Probabilistic Models
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They are the products of an environment of risk and uncertainty.
The input and/or output variables take the form of probability distributions.
They are semi-closed models and represent
the likelihood of occurrence of an event. Thus they represent, to an extent, the
complexity of the real world and the uncertainty prevailing in it. As an example,
the exponential smoothing model for forecasting demand is a probabilistic model.
5. By the Extent of Generality
(a) General Models
Linear programming model is known as a general model since it can be used for
a number of functions (viz. product mix, production scheduling, marketing, etc.)
of an organisation.
(b) Specific Models
Sales response curve or equation as a function of advertising is applicable in the
marketing function alone.
6. By the Time Horizon
(a) Static Models
They are one-time decision models. They represent the system at a specified
time and do not take into account the changes over time. In these models cause
and effect occur almost simultaneously and time lag between the two is zero.
They are easier to formulate, manipulate and solve. Economic order quantity
model is a static model.
(b) Dynamic Models
They are the models for situations in which time often plays an important role.
They are used for optimization of multistage decision problems which require a
series of decisions with the outcome of each depending upon the results of the
previous decisions in the series. Dynamic programming is a dynamic model.
1.11CHARACTERISTICS OF A GOOD MODEL
1. The number of simplifying assumptions should be as flew as possible.
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2. The number of relevant variables should be as few as possible. This means
the model should be simple yet close to reality.
3. It should assimilate the system environmental changes without change in its
framework. 4. It should be adaptable to parametric type of treatment.
5. It should be easy and economical to construct.
1.12 ADVANTAGES OF A MODEL
1. It provides a logical and systematic approach to the problem. 2. It indicates the
scope as well as limitations of a problem.
3. It helps in finding avenues for new research and improvements in a system.
4. It makes the overall structure of the problem more comprehensible and helps
in dealing with the problem in its entirety.
5. It permits experimentation and analysis of a complex system without directly
interfering in the working and environment of the system.
1.14 LIMITATIONS OF A MODEL
1. Models are only idealised representation of reality and should not 6e regarded
as absolute in any case.
2. The validity of a model for a particular situation can be ascertanied only by
conducting experiments on it.
1.15 CONSTRUCTING THE MODEL
It was pointed out in previous sections that formulation of the problem requires
analysis of :he system under study. This analysis shows the various phases of
the system and the way it can 7e controlled. With the formulation of the problem,
the first stage in model construction is over. The next step is to define a measure
of effectiveness, i.e., the next step is to construct a model in ,rhich effectiveness
of the system is expressed as a function of the variables cleftningg the system.
The general form of OR model is
E = f (xi, yj),
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where E = effectiveness of the system,
xi = variables of the system that can be controlled,
yi = variables of the system that cannot be controlled but do affect E.
Deriving of solution from such a model consists of determining those values of
control variables x;, for which the measure of effectiveness is optimized.
Optimization includes both maximization (in case of profits, production capacity,
etc.) and minimization (in case of losses, cost of production, etc.).
Various steps in the construction of a model are
1. Selecting components of the system
2. Pertinence of components
3. Combining the components
4. Substituting symbols
1.16-1 Selecting Components of the System
All the components of the system which contribute towards the effectiveness
measure of the system should be listed.
1.16-2 Pertinence of Components
Once a complete list of components is prepared, the next step is to find whether
or not to take each of these components into account. This is determined by
finding the effect of various alternative courses of action on each of these
components. Generally, one or more components (e.g., fixed costs) are
independent of the changes made among the various alternative courses of
action. Such components may be temporarily dropped from consideration.
1.16.3 Combining the Components
It may be convenient to group certain components of the system. For example,
the purchase price, freight charges and receiving cost of a raw material can be
combined together and called `raw material acquisition cost'. The next step is to
determine, for each component remaining on the modified list, whether its value
is fixed or variable. If a component is variable, various aspects of the system.
23
affecting its value must be determined. For instance manufacturing cost usually
consists of
(1) the number of units manufactured, and (ii) the cost of manufacturing a unit_
1.16-4 Substituting Symbols
Once each variable component in the modified list has been broken down like
this, symbols may be assigned to each of these sub-components.
The foregoing steps will be clear from the example considered below
A newsboy wants to decide the number of newspapers he should order to
maximize his expected profit. He purchases a certain number of newspapers
everyday and is able to sell some or all of them. He earns a profit on each paper
sold. He can return the unsold papers, but at a loss. The number of persons who
buy newspapers varies from day-to-day.
To construct the model for this problem, we identify the various relevant
components (variables) and then assign symbols to them.
Let N = number of newspapers ordered per day,
A = profit earned on each newspaper sold,
B = loss on each newpaper returned,
D = demand i.e. number of newspapers sold per day,
p(D) = probability that the demand will be equal to D
on any randomly selected day,
P = net profit per day.
If D > N i.e., demand is more than the number of newspapers ordered, the profit
to the newsboy is
P(D > N) = NA.
If on the other hand, demand is less than the number ordered, the profit is
P(D < N) = DA - (N - D)B.
:. Net expected profit per day, P can be expressed as
24
This is a decision model of the risk type. Here, P is the measure of performance,
N is the controlled variable, D is an uncontrollable variable, while A and B are
uncontrollable constants. Solution of this model consists of finding that value of N
which maximizes P.
1.16 APPROXIMATIONS (SIMPLIFICATIONS) IN OR MODELS
While constructing a model one comes across two conflicting objectives:
(i) the model should be as easy to solve as possible,
(ii) it should be as accurate as possible.
Moreover, the management must be able to understand the solution of the model
and must be capable of using it. Obviously, one must pay due care to the
mathematical complexity of the solution. Therefore, while constructing the model,
the reality (problem under study) should be simplified but only to the point that
there is no significant loss of accuracy. Some of the common simplifications
include
1. Omitting certain variables
2. Aggregating variables
3. Changing the nature of variables
4. Changing the relationship between variables, and 5. Modifying constraints
1.17-1 Omitting Certain Variables
Clearly, variables having a large effect on system's performance cannot be
omitted. It requires a lot of study to decide which variables have and which do not
have large effects. For instance, in production and inventory control models, the
effect of production-run sizes on in process inventory costs is usually negligible
as compared to effect of other variables and is, therefore, neglected.
1.17-2 Aggregating Variables
Most problems involve a large number of decision variables. For instance,
some inventory problems involve the purchase of more than a million items. For
solving such problems, the controlled variables are grouped into `families'. A
25
family is, then, supposed to consist of all identical members. One principle of
`family' formation is
1. Low usage, low cost
2. Low usage, high cost
3. High usage, low cost
4. High usage, high cost
1.18-3 Changing the Nature of Variables
The nature of variables may be changed in three ways:
(i) by treating a variable as constant,
(ii) by treating a discrete variable as continuous, and
(iii) by treating a continuous variable as discrete.
A variable may be treated as constant with its value equal to the mean of the
variable's distribution. For example, in most production quantity models setup
cost is treated as constant. From both analytical and computational viewpoints it
is easier to treat a discrete variable as continuous. Most of OR techniques deal
with continuous variables. Even if the discrete variables are few in number, the
computational difficulties become quite large. For instance, in inventory control
models, withdrawals of items from stock that are actually discrete are assumed
as continuous at a constant rate, over a planning period.
However, for processes in which time between events is a relevant variable,
considerable simplification may be obtained by assuming that events occurring
within a certain period occur instantaneously at the beginning or end of the
period.
1.17-4 Changing the Relationship between Variables
Models can be simplified by modifying the functional form of the model. Non-
linear functions require a complex solution method. The most powerful
computational techniques are applicable only to models having linear functions.
Therefore, non-linear functions are usually approximated to linear functions (e.g.,
in linear programming). Many times, a curve is approximated to a series of
26
straight lines (e.g., in non-linear programming). Quadratic functions are used as
approximations since their derivatives are linear (e.;.. in quadratic programming).
Discrete functions (e.g., binomial and Poisson) are sometimes approximated to
continuous normal functions.
1.17-5 Modifying Constraints
Constraints can be deleted, added or modified to simplify the model. If it is not
possible to solve a model with all the constraints, some of them may be
temporarily ignored and a `solution' obtained. If this `solution' happens to satisfy
these constraints too, it is accepted. If it does not, constraints are added, one at a
time, with increasing complexity, until a solution satisfying these constraints is
obtained. A general rule regarding constraints is that when they are dropped the
solution derived from the model becomes optimistic (it gives better performance
than the `true' solution). On the other hand, adding of constraints makes the
solution pessimistic.
1.18 TYPES OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS
Many OR models have been developed and applied to problems in business and
industry. Some of these models are:
1. Mathematical techniques
2. Statistical techniques
3. Inventory models
4. Allocation models
5. Sequencing models
6. Project scheduling by PERT and CPM
7. Routing models
8. Competitive models
9. Queuing models
10. Simulation techniques
27
Unit –2 LINEAR PROGRAMMING
2.1 INTRODUCTION
28
All organizations, whether large or small, need optimal utilization of their scarce
or limited resources to achieve certain objectives. Scarce resources may be
money, manpower, materials, machine capacity technology, time, etc. In order to
achieve best possible result(s) with the available resources, the decision-maker
must understand all facts about the organization activities and the relationships
governing among chosen activities and its outcome. The desired outcome may
be measured in terms of profits, time, return on investment, costs, etc.
Of all the well known operations research models, linear programming is the
most popular and most widely applied technique of mathematical programming.
Basically, linear programming is e deterministic mathematical technique which
involves the allocation of scarce or limited resources in an optimal manner on the
basis of a given criterion of optimality. Frequently, the criterion of optimality is
either profits, costs, return on investment, time, distance, etc.
George B. Dantzig, while working with U.S. Air Force during World War II, in
1947, developed. the technique of linear programming. Linear programming was
developed as a technique to achieve the best plan out of different plans for
achieving the goal through various activities like procurement recruitment,
maintenance, etc.
During its early stage of development, it was applied primarily to military
logistics problems such as transportation, assignment and deployment decisions.
However, after the war, became e popular technique in business and industry.
Today linear programming has found applications in government, hospitals,
libraries, education and almost in all functional areas of management Production
scheduling and inventory control, transportation of goods and services, capita
investments, advertising and promotion planning, personnel assignment and
development, etc., are few examples of the type of problems that can be solved
by linear programming.
In linear programming decisions are made under certainty, i.e., information
on available resources and relationships between variables are known. Therefore
actions chosen will invariably lead to optimal or nearly optimal results. It also
29
helps in verifying the results arrived at by intuitive decision making and indicate
the errors involved in the selection of optimal course of actions. In sum, we can
say that linear programming provides a quantitative basis to assist a
decisionmaker in the selection of the most effective and desirable course of
action from a given number of available alternatives to achieve the result in an
optimal manner.
2:2 BASIC TERMINOLOGY, REQUIREMENTS, ASSUMPTIONS,
ADVANTAGES AND LIMITATIONS
Basic Terminology: The word 'linear' used to describe the relationships
among two or more variables which are directly or precisely proportional. For
example, doubling (or tripling) the production of a product will exactly double (or
tripling) the profit and required resources.
The word 'programming' means that the decisions are taken systematically
by adopting various alternative courses of actions.
A program is 'optimal' if it maximize or minimize some measure or criterion of
effectiveness such as profit, cost, or sales. The term 'limited' refers to the
availability of resources during planning horizon.
2.3 Basic Requirements: Regardless of the way one defines linear
programming, certain basic requirements are necessary before it can be used for
optimization problems.
(i) Decision Variables and their Relationship: The decision variable refers to any
activity (product, service, project etc.) that is competing with other decision
variables (activities) for limited resources. These variables are usually
interrelated in terms of utilization of resources and need simultaneous
solutions. The relationship among these variables should be linear.
(ii) Objective Function: The linear programming problem must have a well
defined (explicit) objective function to optimize. For example, maximization of
profits, minimization of cost or elapsed time of the system being studied. It
should be expressed as linear function of decision variables. The single-
objective optimization is an important requirement of linear programming.
30
(iii) Constraints: There must be limitations on resources, which are to be
allocated among various competing activities. These resources may be
production capacity, manpower, money, time, space or technology. These
must be capable of being expressed as linear equalities or inequalities in
terms of decision variables. These impose restrictions on the activities
(decision variables) in optimizing the objective function.
(iv) Alternative Courses of Action: There must be alternative courses of action.
For example, there may be many processes open to a firm for producing a
commodity and one process can be substituted for another.
(c•) Non-negative Restriction: All variables must assume non-negative values
as negative values of physical quantities is meaningless. If any of the
variables is unrestricted in sign, a trick can be employed which will enforce
the non-negativity without changing the original information of the problem.
(vi) Linearity: All relationships among decision variables in the objective function
and constraints must exhibit linearity, that is, relationship among decision
variables must be directly proportional. For example, if our resource increase
by some percentage, than it should result increase in the outcome by the
same percentage.
2.4 Basic Assumptions: In all linear programming models, there are certain
assumptions which must be met in order for such models to be applicable.
(i) Proportionality: The amount of each resource used and associated
contribution to profit (or cost) in the objective function must be proportional to
the value of each decision variable. For example, if the number of units of an
item produced were doubled, then the total amount of each resource
required in the manufacture of the item would also be doubled, as would the
total profit contribution from items. In other words marginal measure of
profitability and marginal usage of each resource are being considered as
constant over the entire range of productive activity.
(ii) Divisibility (or Continuity): It is assumed that the solution value of the
decision variables and the amount of resources used need not be integer
31
values, i.e. continuous values of the decision variables and resources must
be permissible W obtaining an optimal solution.
(iii) Additivity: It is required that the total profitability, and total amount of each
resource utilized must be equal to the sum of the respective individual
amounts. For example, the production of an item can not affect the
profitability associated with the production of any other item and vice-versa,
i.e., total profitability and total amount of each resource untilized that results
from the joint production of two items, must be equal to the sum of the
quantities resulting from the items being produced individually.
(iv) Deterministic Coefficients (or Parameters): It is assumed that all coefficients
(or parameters e.g. profit or cost associated with each product; amount of
resources required per unit each product, and the amount of input-output or
technological coefficients in linear programming model are known with
certainty (i.e. constant). Such type of data, usually obtained from marketing,
production or accounting data. However, this may not be always true. Then
in such cases, the decision-maker is required to obtain a set of coefficients
that will allow a reasonable decision to be made.
2.5 Advantages of Linear Programming: Following are certain advantages
of linear programming
1. Linear programming helps in attaining the optimum use of productive factors. It
also indicates how a decision-maker can employ his productive factors
effectively by selecting and distributing these elements.
2. Linear programming techniques improve the quality of decisions. User of this
technique becomes more objective and less subjective.
3. Linear programming gives possible and practical solutions since there might
be other constraint operating outside of the problem which must be taken into
account. Just because we can produce so many units, does not mean that
they can be sold. It allows modification of its mathematical solution for the
sake of convenience to the decision-maker.
32
4. Highlighting of bottlenecks in the production processes is the most significant
advantage of this technique. For example, when bottleneck occurs, some
machines cannot meet demand while other remain idle for sometime.
5. Linear programming also help in re-evaluation of a basic plan for changing
conditions. If conditions change when the plan is party carried out, they can be
determined so as to adjust the remainder of the plan for best result.
2.6 Limitations of Linear Programming: Inspite of having many
advantages there are some limitations associated with it, which are given below :
1. Linear programming treats a11 relationship as linear. However, generally,
neither the objective function no the constraints in real life situations
concerning business and industrial problems are linearly related to the
variables.
2. There is no guarantee that it will give integer valued solutions. For example, W
finding out how many men and machines would be required to perform a
particular job a non-integer valued solution will be meaningless. Rounding off
the solution to the nearest integer will not yield an optimal solution. In such
cases other methods would be used.
3. Linear programming model does not take into consideration the effect of time
and uncertainty. Thus it shall be defined in such a way that any change due to
internal as well as external factors can be incorporated.
4. Sometimes large-scale problems can not be solved with linear programming
technique even when assistance of computer is available. The main problem
can be decomposed into several small problems and solved separately.
5. Parameters appear in the model are assumed to be constant but in real-life
situation, they are frequently neither known nor constants.
6. It deals with only single objective, where as in real life situations we may come
across more than one objective.
2.7 APPLICATION AREAS OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING
33
Linear programming is the most widely used technique of decision making in
business and industry and in various other fields. In this section, we will discuss a
few of the broad application areas it linear programming.
Agricultural Applications
These applications fall into two categories, farm economics and farm
management. The former deals with agricultural economy of a nation or region,
while the later is concerned with the problems o# the individual farm.
The study of farm economics deals with interregional competition and
optimum spartial allocation of crop production. Efficient production patterns were
specified by linear programming model under regional land resources and
national demand constraints.
Linear Programming can be applied in agricultural planning, e.g., allocation
of limited resources such as acreage, labour, water supply and working capital,
etc in such a way so as to maximize net revenue.
Military Applications
Military applications include the problem of selecting an air weapon system
against gurillas so as §o keep them pinned down and at the same time minimize
the amount of aviation gasoline used, a variation of transportation problem that
maximizes the total tonnage of bombs dropped on a set of targets and the
problem of community defence against disaster, the solution of which yields the
number of defence units that should be used in a given attack in order to provide
the required level of protection at the lowest possible cost.
Production Management
Product mix: A company can produce several different products each of which
require the use of limited production resources. In such cases it is essential to
determine the quantity of each product to be produced knowing their marginal
contribution and amount of available resource used by each of them. The
objective is to maximize the total contribution subject to all constraints.
Production planning: This deals with the determination of minimum cost
production plan over a planning period of an item with a fluctuating demand
34
considering the initial number of units in inventory, production capacity,
constraints on production, manpower, and all relevant cost factors. The objective
is to minimize total operation costs.
Assembly-line balancing: This problem is likely to arise when an item can be
made by assembling different components. The process of assembling requires
some specified sequence(s). The objective is to minimize the total elapse time.
Blending problems: These problems arise when a product can be made from a
variety of available raw materials, each of which has a particular composition and
price. The objective, here is to determine the minimum cost blend subject to
availability of the raw materials and the minimum and maximum constraints on
certain product constituents.
Trim loss: When an item is made in standard size (e.g. glass, paper, sheet), the
problem that arises is to determine which combination of requirements should be
produced from standard materials in order to minimize the trim loss.
Financial Management
• Portfolio selection: This deals with the selection of specific investment activity
among several other activities. The objective is to find the allocation which
maximizes the total expected return or minimizes risk under certain limitations.
• Profit planning: This deals with the maximization of profit margin from
investment in plant facilities and equipment, cash on hand and inventory.
Marketing Management
• Media selection: Linear programming technique helps in determining the
advertising media mix so as to maximize the effective exposure, subject to
limitation of budget, specified exposure rates to different market segments,
specified minimum and maximum number of advertisements in various
media.
• Traveling salesman problem: The problem of salesman is to find the shortest
route starting from a given city, visiting each of the specified cities and then
returning to the original point of departure, provided no city shall be visited
35
twice during the tour. Such type of problems can be solved with the help of
the modified assignment technique.
• Physical distribution: Linear programming determines the most economic and
efficient manner of ~locating manufacturing plants and distribution centres for
physical distribution.
Personnel Management
• Staffing problem: Linear programming is used to allocate optimum manpower
to a particular job so as to minimize the total overtime cost or total
manpower.
• Determination of equitable salaries: Linear programming technique has been
used in determining equitable salaries and sales incentives.
• Job evaluation and selection: Selection of suitable man for a specified job and
evaluation of jot in organizations has been done with the help of linear
programming technique.
Other applications of linear programming include in the area of
administration, education health care, fleet utilization, awarding contracts and
capital budgeting, etc.
2.8 FORMULATION OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODELS
The usefulness of linear programming as a tool for optimal decision making and
resource allocation is based on its applicability to many diversified decision
problems. The effective use and application require, as a first step, the
formulation of the model when the problem is presented.
The three basic steps in formulating a linear programming model are as follows:
Step 1: Identify the decision variables to be determined and express them in
terms of algebraic symbols.
Step 2: Identify all the limitations or constraints in the given problem and
then express them as linear inequalities or equations in terms of above
defined decision variables.
36
Step 3: Identify the objective (criterion) which is to be optimized (maximize or
minimize) am express it as a linear function of the above defined decision
variables.
FORMULATION OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS
First, the given problem must be presented in linear programming form. This
requires defining the variables of the problem, establishing inter-relationships
between them and formulating the objective function and constraints. A model,
which approximates as closely as possible to the given problem, is then to be
developed. If some constraints happen to be nonlinear, they are approximated to
appropriate linear functions to fit the linear programming format. In case it is not
possible, other techniques may be used to formulate and then solve the model.
EXAMPLE (Production Allocation Problem)
A firm produces three products. These products are processed on three different
machines. The time required to manufacture one unit of each of the three
products and the daily capacity of the three machines are given in the table
below.
TABLE 2.1
Machine Time per unit (minutes) Machine
capacity Product l Product 2 Product 3 (minuteslday)
M1 2 3 2 440
M2 4 - 3 470 M3 2 5 - 430
It is required to determine the daily number of units to be manufactured for each
product. The profit per unit for product 1, 2 and 9 is Rs. 4, Rs. 3 and Rs. 6
respectively. It is assumed that a11 the amounts produced are consumed in the
37
market. Formulate the mathematical (L.P) model that will maximize the daily
profit.
Formulation of Linear Programming Model
Step 1:
From the study of the situation find the key-decision to be made. It this
connection, looking for variables helps considerably. In the given situation key
decision is to decide the extent of products 1, 2 and 3, as the extents are
permitted to vary.
Step 2:
Assume symbols for variable quantities noticed in step 1. Let the extents
(amounts) of products, 1, 2 and 3 manufactured daily be xr, xZ and x3 units
respectively.
Step 3:
Express the feasible alternatives mathematically in terms of variables. Feasible
alternative s are those which are physically, economically and financially
possible. In the given situation feasible alternatives are sets of values of st, x=
and x3,
where c,, x=, x3 ? 0,
since negative production has no meaning and is not feasible.
Step 4:
Mention the objective quantitatively and express it as a linear function of
variables. In the present situation, objective is to maximize the profit.
i.e., maximize Z = 4x1 + 3x2, + 6x3.
Step 5:
Put into words the influencing factors or constraints. These occur generally
because of constraints on availability (resources) or requirements (demands).
Express these constraints also as linear equations/inequalities in terms of
variables.
Here, constraints are on the machine capacities and can be mathematically
expressed as
38
2x1 + 3x2, + 2x3 < 440,
4x1 + 0x2, + 3x3 < 470,
2x1 + 5x2, + 0x3 < 430,
2.9 GRAPHICAL METHOD OF SOLUTION
Once a problem is formulated as mathematical model, the next step is to solve
the problem the optimal solution. A linear programming problem with only two
variables presents a simple case, for which the solution can be derived using a
graphical or geometrical method. Though, in actual practice such small problems
are rarely encountered, the graphical method provides a pictorial representation
of the solution process and a great deal of insight into the basic concepts used in
solving large L.P. problems. This method consists of the following steps:
1. Represent the-given problem in mathematical form i.e., formulate the
mathematical model for the given problem.
2. Draw the xi and X2-axes. The non-negativity restrictions xi 0 -and xZ ? 0 imply
that the values of the variables x, and xz can lie only in the first quadrant. This
eliminates a number of infeasible alternatives that lie in 2nd, 3rd and 4th
quadrants.
3. Plot each of the constraint on the graph. The constraints, 'whether equations
or inequalities are plotted as equations. For each constraint, assign any arbitrary
value to one variable and get the value of the other variable. Similarly, assign
another arbitrary value to the other variable and find the value of the first
variable. Plot these two points and connect them by a straight line. Thus each
constraint is plotted as line in the first quadrant.
4. identify the feasible region (or solution space) that satisfies all the constraints
simultaneously. For type constraint, the area on or above the constraint line i.e.,
away from the origin and for < type constraint, the area on or below the constraint
39
line i. e., towards origin will be considered. The area common to all the
constraints is called feasible region and is shown shaded. Any point on or within
the shaded region represents a feasible solution to the given problem. Though a
number of infeasible points are eliminated, the feasible region still contains a
large number of feasible points.
5. Use iso-profit (cost) junction line approach. For this, plot the objective function
by assuming Z = 0. This will be a line passing through the origin. As the value of
Z is increased from zero, the line starts moving to the right, parallel to itself. Draw
lines parallel to this line till the line is farthest way from the origin (for a
maximization problem). For a minimization problem, the line will be nearest to the
origin. The point of the feasible region through which this line passes will be the
optimal point. [t is possible that this line may coincide with one of the edges of
the feasible region. In that case, every point on that edge will give the same
maximum/minimum value of the objective function and will be the optimal point.
Alternatively use extreme point enumeration approach. For this, find the co-
ordinates of each extreme point (or corner point or vertex) of the feasible region.
Find the value of the objective function at each extreme point. The point at which
objective function is maximum/minimum is the optimal point and its co-ordinates
give the optimal solution.
40
EXAMPLE
Find the maximum value of
Z = 2x1 + 3x2,
subject to x1 + x2 < 30,
x2 > 3,
x2 < 12,
x1 –x2 > 0,
0 < x1 < 20
Solution
The solution space satisfying the given constraints and meeting the non-
negativity restrictions x1 > 0 and x2 > 0 is shown shaded in Fig. 2.4. Any point in
this shaded region is a feasible solution to the given problem.
The co-ordinates of the five vertices of the convex region ABCDE are A(3, 3),
B(12, 12), C(18, 12), D(20, 10) and E(20, 3).
Fig.
Values of the objective function Z = 2x[ + 3xZ at these vertices are Z(A) = 15, Z(B)
= 60, Z(C) = 72, Z(D) = 70 and Z(E) = 49.
Since the maximum value of Z is 72, which occurs at the point C(18,12), the
solution to the given problem is x, = 18, x2 = 12, Zmax= 72.
41
2.10 Simplex method : EXAMPLE
Solution
Maximize Z = 3X1 + 3X2 (Objective function) . (2.16)
subject to X1 + X2 < 450, (Machine M1, time constraint) 2.17
2X1 + X2 < 600, (Machine M1, time constraint)
Where X1, X2 2.18
Step 1. Express the problem in standard form
The given problem is said to be expressed in standard form if the given
(decision) variables are non-negative, right-hand side of the constraints are
non-negative and the constraints are expressed as equations. Since the first
two conditions are met with in the problem, non-negative slack variables s1 and
s2 are added to the left-hand side of the first and second constraints
respectively to convert them into equations. Values of s, and s2 vary with the
values that x, and x= take in any solution. Slack variables represent unutilised
capacity or resources. In the current problem s, denotes the time (in minutes)
for which machine M, remains unutilised or id1e; similarly s, denotes the idle
time for machine M,. Since slack variables represent idle resources, they
contribute zero to the objective function. Accordingly, they are associated with
zero coefficients in the objective function. Accordingly, the problem in standard
form, can be written as
maximize Z = 3x1, + 4x2 + Os1, + Os2, (2.19)
subject to x1, + x2 + s1 = 450 2.20
2x1, + x2 + s2 = 600
where x1, x2, s1 , s2 > 0 2.21
42
43
2.12 ARTIFICIAL VARIABLES TECHNIQUES
In the earlier problems, the constraints were of (5) type (with non-negative right-
hand sides). The introduction of slack variables readily provided the initial basic
feasible solution. There are, however, many linear programming problems where
slack variables cannot provide such a solution. In these problems at least one of
the constraints is of (?) or (=) type. In such cases, we introduce another type of
variables called artificial variables. These variables are fictitious and have no
physical meaning. They assume the role of slack variables in the first iteration,
only to be replaced at a later iteration. Thus they are merely a device to get the
starting basic feasible solution so that simplex algorithm be applied as usual to
get optimal solution. There are two (closely related) techniques available to solve
such problems. They are
1. The big M-method or M-technique or method of penalties due to A.
Charnes. 2. The two-phase method due to Dantzig, Orden and Wolfe.
2.12 The Big M-Method
This method consists of the following basic steps :
Step 1. Express the linear programming problem in standard form by introducing
slack variables. These variables are added to the left-hand sides of the
constraints of (<) type and subtracted from the constraints of (?) type.
Step 2. Add non-negative variables to the left-hand sides of all the constraints of
initially (>) or (<) type. These variables are called artificial variables. The
purpose of introducing the
Linear Programming 1 16b
artificial variables is just to obtain an initial basic feasible solution. They have,
however, two drawbacks:
(i) They are fictitious, have no physical meaning or economic significance and
have no relevance to the problem.
(ii) Their introduction (addition) violates the equality of constraints that has been
already established in step 1.
44
They are, therefore, rightly termed as artificial variables as opposed to other real
decision variables in the problem. Therefore, we must get rid of these variables
and must not allow them to appear in the final solution. To achieve this, these
variables are assigned a very large per unit penalty in the objective function. This
penalty is designated by - M far maximization problems and + M for minimization
problems, where M > 0. Value of M is much higher than the cost coefficients of
other variables and for hand calculations it is not necessary to assign any
specific value to it.
Step 3. Solve the modified linear programming problem by the simplex method.
The artificial variables are a computational device. They keep the starting
equations in balance and provide a mathematical trick for getting a starting
solution. By having a high penalty cost it is ensured that they will not appear in
the final solution i.e., they will be driven to zero when the objective function is
optimized by using the simplex method.
While making iterations, using the simplex method, one of the following three
cases may
arise:
1. If no artificial variable remains in the basis and the optimality condition is
satisfied, then the solution is an optimal feasible solution to the given problem.
Also, the original constraints are consistent and none of them is redundant.
2. u at ieam one artificial variable appears in the basis at zero level (with zero
value in bcolumn) and the optimality condition is satisfied, then the solution is
optimal feasible (though degenerate) solution to the given problem. The
constraints are consistent though redundancy may exist in them. By redundancy
is meant that the problem has more than the required number of constraints.
3. If at least one artificial variable appears in the basis at a non-zero level (with
positive value in b-column) and the optimality condition is satisfied, then the
original problem has no feasible solution; for if a feasible solution existed, the
artificial variables could be driven to zero, yielding an improved value of the
objective function. The problem has no feasible solution either because the
constraints are inconsistent or because there are solutions, but none is feasible.
45
In economic terms this means that the resources of the system are not sufficient
to meet the expected demands. The final solution to the problem is not optimal
since the objective function contains an unknown quantity M. Such a solution
satisfies the constraints but does not optimize the objective function and is also
called pseudo-optimal solution.
Remarks: I. Slack variables are added to (the left-hand sides) the constraints of
(S) type and subtracted from the constraints of (?) type.
2. Artificial variables are added to the constraints of (?) and (_) type. Equality
constraints require neither slack nor surplus variables.
3. Variables, other than the artificial variables, once driven out in an iteration,
may re-enter in a subsequent iteration. But, an artificial variable, once driver, can
never re-enter, because of the large penalty coefficient M associated with it in the
objective function. Advantage can be taken of this fact by not computing its
column in iterations subsequent to the one from which it was driven out.
4. For computer solutions, some specific value has to be assigned to M. Usually,
the largest value that can be represented in the computer is used.
EXAMPLE
Food X contains 6 units of vitamin A per gram and 7 units of vitamin B per
gram and costs !2 paise per gram. Food Y contains 8 units of vitamin A per
gram and ll units of vitamin B per gram and costs 20 poise per gram. The
daily minimum requirement of vitamin A and vitamin B is 100 units and 120
units respectively. Find the minimum cost of product mix by the simplex
method. [RU. B. Com. April, 20117; Meerut M.Com. 19701 Solution. Let
xi and x, be the grams of food X and Y to be purchased. Then the problem can
be formulated as follows :
Minimize Z = 12x1 + 20x2
subject to 6x1 + 8x2 > 100,
7x1 + 12x2 > 120,
x1 + x2 > 0
46
Step 1. Express the problem in standard form
Slack variables s1 and S2 are subtracted from the left-hand sides of the
constraints to convert them to equations. These variables are also called
negative slack variables or surplus variables. , Variable si represents units of
vitamin A in product mix In--excess of the minimum requirement
of 100, s, represents units of vitamin B in produc ~nix in excess of
requirement of 120. Sir.. ° they represent `free' foods, the cost coefficients
ssociated with them in the objective function are zeros. The problem,
therefore, can be writte as follows :
Step 2. Find initial basic feasible solution
Putting x, = xZ = 0, we get s, _ - 100, s2 = - 120 as the first basic solution but it
is not feasible as s, and sZ have negative values that do not satisfy the non-
negativity restrictions. Therefore, we introduce artificial variables A, and AZ in
the constraints, which take the form 6x, + 8xZ -- s, + A, = 100,
7x, + 12x2 - sZ + Az = 120, x,, xz, s,, sZ, Ar, Az >- 0.
Now artificial variables with values greater than zero violate the equality in
constraints established in step I. Therefore, A, and AZ should not appear in the
final solution. To achieve this, they are assigned a large unit penalty (a large
positive value, + M) in the objective function, which can be written as
minimize Z = 12x1 + 20x2 + Os1 + Os2 + MA1 + MA2.
Problem, now, has six variables and two constraints. Four of the variables
have to be zeroised to get initial basic feasible solution to the `artificial
system'. Putting x, = x= = s, = s, = 0, we get
A, = 100, A2 = 120, Z = 220 M.
Note that we are starting with a very heavy cost (compare it with zero profit in
maximization problem) which we shall minimize during the solution procedure.
47
Unit -3
The Transportation Model
3.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE MODEL
In the previous chapter the general nature of the linear programming problem
and its solution by the graphical, simplex and other methods was discussed. It
was stated that the simplex algorithm could be used to solve any linear
programming problem for which the solution exists. However, as the number of
variables and constraints increase, the computation by this method becomes
more and more laborious. Therefore, where-ever possible, we try to simplify the
calculations. One such model requiring simplified calculations is the distribution
model or the transportation model It deals with the transportation of a product
available at several sources to a number of different destinations. The name
"transportation model" is, however, misleading. 'this model can be used for a
value variety of situations such as scheduling, production, investment, plant
location, inventory control, employment scheduling, personnel assignment,
product mix problems and many others, so that the model is really not confined
to transportation or distribution only.
The origin of transportation models dates back to 1941 when F.L. Hitchcock
presented a study entitled `The Distribution of a Product from Several Sources
to Numerous Localities.' The presentation is regarded as the first important
contribution to the solution of transportation problems. In 1947, T.C. Koopmans
presented a study called `Optimum Utilization of the Transportation System'.
These two contributions are mainly responsible for the development of
transportation models which involve a number of shipping sources and A.
number of destinations. Each shipping source has a certain capacity and each
destination has a certain requirement associated with a certain c9st of shipping
from the sources to the destinations. The objective is to minimize the cost of
transportation while meeting the requirements at the destinations.
48
Transportation problems may also involve movement of a product from plants to
warehouses, warehouses to wholesalers, wholesalers to retailers and retailers
to customers.
3.2 ASSUMPTIONS IN THE TRANSPORTATION MODEL
1. Total quantity of the item available at different sources is equal to the total
requirement at different destinations.
2. Item can be transported conveniently from all sources to destinations.
3. The unit transportation cost of the item from all sources to destinations is
certainly and pecisely known.
4. The transportation cost on a given route is directly proportional to the number
of units shipped on that route.
5. "f he objective is to minimize the total transportation cost for the organisation
as a whole and not for individual supply and distribution centres.
3.3 DEFINITION OF THE TRANSPORTATION MODEL
Transportation models deal with problems concerning as to what happens to
the effectiveness function when we associate each of a number of origins
(sources) with each of a possibly different number of destinations (jobs). The
total movement from each origin and the total movement to each destination is
given and it is desired to find how the associations be made subject to the
limitations on totals. In such problems, sources can be divided among the jobs
or jobs may be done with a combination of sources. The distinct feature of
transportation problems is that sources and jobs must be expressed in terms of
only one kind of unit.
Suppose that there are m sources and n destinations. Let a; be the number of
supply units available at source i(i = l, 2, 3, ..., m) and let bj be the number of
demand units required at destination j(i = 1, 2, 3, ..., n). Let cij represent the unit
49
transportation cost for transportating the units from source i to destination j. The
objective is to determine the number of units to be transported from source i to
destination j so that the total transportation cost is minimum. In addition, the
supply limits at the sources and the demand requirements at the destinations
must be satisfied exactly.
If ij(xij > 0) is the number of units shipped from source i to destination j, then the
equivalent linear programming model will be
Find xij (i = 1,2,3,…m: j = 1,2,3,……n) in order to
The two sets of constraints will be consistent i.e.; the system will be in balance
if
Equality sign of the constraints causes one of the constraints to be redundant
(and hence it can be deleted) so that the problem will have (m + n - I)
constraints and (m x n) unknowns. Note that a transportation problem will have
a feasible solution only if the above restriction
is satisfied. Thus, is necessary as well as a sufficient condition
for a
50
transportation problem to have a feasible solution. Problems that satisfy this
condition are called balanced transportation problems. Techniques have been
developed for solving balanced or standard transportation problems only. It
follows that any non-standard problem in which the supplies and demands do
not balance, must be converted to a standard tansportation problem before it
can be solved. This conversion can be achieved by the use of a dummy source/
destination.
The above information can be put in the form of a general matrix shown below:
51
In table 3.1, c„, i = I, 2, ..., m; j = l, 2, ..., n, is the unit shipping cost from the dh
origin to jth destination, x,; is the quantity shipped from the ith origin to jth
destination, a; is the supply available at origin i and b, is the demand at
destination j.
Definitions
A few terms used in connection with transportation models are defined below.
1. Feasible Solution. A feasible solution to a transportation problem is a set of
nonnegative allocations, x,i that satisfies the rim (row and column) restrictions.
2. Basic Feasible Solution. A feasible solution to a transportation problem is
said to be a basic feasible solution if it contains no more than m + n - 1 non-
negative allocations, where m is the number of rows and n is the number of
columns of the transportation problem.
3. Optimal Solution. A feasible solution (not necessarily basic) that minimizes
(maximizes) the transportation cost (profit) is called an optimal solution.
4. Non-degenerate Basic Feasible Solution. A basic feasible solution to a (m x
n) transportation problem is said to be non-degenerate if,
(a) the total number of non-negative allocations is exactly m + n - I (i.e.,
number of independent constraint equations), and
(b) these m + n - I allocations are in independent positions.
5. Degenerate Basic Feasible Solution: A basic feasible solution in which the
total number of non-negatives allocations is less than m + n - 1 is called
degenerate basic feasible solution.-. .
3.4 MATRIX TERMINOLOGY
The matrix used in the transportation models consists of squares called `cells',
which when stacked form `columns' vertically and `rows' horizontally.
The cell located at the intersection of a row and a column is designated by its
row and column headings. Thus the cell located at the intersection of row A and
column 3 is called cell (A, 3). Unit costs are placed in each cell.
52
3.5 FORMULATION AND SOLUTION OF TRANSPORTATION MODELS
In this section we shall consider a few examples which will make clear the
technique of formulation and solution of transportation models.
EXAMPLE 3.5-1 (Transportation Problem)
A dairy firm has three plants located throughout a state. Daily milk production at
each plant is as follows:
Plant 1 ... 6 million litres, plant 2 ... I million litres, and plant 3 ... 10 million litres.
Each day the firm must fulfil the needs of its four distribution centres. Milk
requirement at each centre is as follows:
Distribution centre 1 ... 7 million litres, distribution centre 2 ... 5 million litres,
distribution centre 3 ... 3 million litres, and distribution centre 4 ... 2 million litres.
Cost of shipping one million litres of milk from each plant to each distribution
centre is given in the following table in hundreds of rupees:
Table 3.3 Distribution centres
(i) Show that the problem represents a network situation. (ii) Formulate the
mathematical model forYhe problem.
(iii) The dairy firm wishes to determine as to how much should 6e the shipment
from which milk plant to which distribution centre so that the total cost of
shipment is the minimum. Determine the optimal transportation policy. -
53
Solution. (t) Let us represent the example graphically:
We find that the above situation takes the shape of a network. (it)
Formulation of Model
Step 1:
Key decision to be made is to find how much quantity of milk from which
plant to which distribution centre be shipped so as to satisfy the
constraints and minimize the cost. Thus the variables in the situation are:
x11, x12, x13, x14, x21, x22, x23, x24, x31, x32, x33, and x34. These variables
represent the quantities of milk to be shipped from different plants to
different distribution centres and can be represented in the form of a
matrix shown below:
54
In general, we can say that the key decision to be made is to find the
quantity of units to be transported from each origin to each destination.
Thus, if there are in origins and r: destinations, then .xy are the decision
variables (quantities to be found), where
i = 1, 2,…..m,
and j = 1, 2, ..., n.
Step 2:
Feasible alternatives are sets of values of xij, where xij > 0.
Step 3:
Objective is to minimize the cost of transportation.
In general, we can say that if c, i is the unit cost of shipping from ith source
to jib destination, the objective is
Step 4: Constraints are
(i) because of availability or supply:
Thus, in all, there are 3 constraints (equal to the number of plants).
In general, there will be m constraints if number of origins is m, which can
be expressed as
55
(ii) because of requirement or demand
In general, there are n constraints if the number of destinations is n, which can
be expressed as
Thus we find that the given situation involves (3 x 4 = 12) variables and (3 + 4
= 7) constraints. In general, such a situation will involve (In x n) variables and
(m + n) constraints. However, because the transportation model is always
balanced, one of these constraints must be redundant. Thus, the model has or
+ n - 1 independent constraint equations, which means that the starting basic
feasible solution consists of m + n - l basic variables.
It can be easily seen that in this model the objective function as well as the
constraints are linear functions of the variables and, therefore, the model can
be solved by simplex method. However, as a large number of variables are
involved, computations required will be much more. The following points may
be noted in a transportation model:
1. All supply as well as demand constraints are of equality type.
2. They are expressed in terms of only one kind of unit.
3. Each variable occurs only once in the supply constraints and only once in the
demand constaints.
4. Each variable in the constraints has unit coefficient only.
Therefore, the transportation model is a special case of general L.R model
where in the above four conditions hold good and can be solved by a special
56
technique called the transportation technique which is easier and shorter than
the simples technique.
(iii) Solution of the Transportation Model
The solution involves making a transportation model (in the form of a matrix),
finding a feasible solution, performing optimality test and iterating towards
optimal solution if required.
Step 1: Make a Transportation Model
This consists in expressing supply from origins, requirements at destinations
and cost of shipping from origins to destinations in the form of a matrix shown
below.
A check is made to find if total supply and demand are equal. If yes, the
problem is said to be a balanced or self contained or standard problena. If
not, a dummy origin or destination (as the case may be) is added to balance the
supply and demand. Table 3.5 represents the transportation table for the given
problem.
Step II: Find a Basic Feasible Solution
This can be easily obtained by applying a technique which has' been developed
by Dantzig and which Charnes and Cooper refer to as "the north-west comer
rule". Other methods for finding the initial feasible solutions are also described. In
all these techniques it is assumed at the beginning that the transportation table is
blank i.e., initially all x; = 0.
57
The difference among these methods is the "quality" of the initial basic feasible
solution they produce, in the sense that a better starting solution will involve a
smaller objective value (minimization problem). In general, the Vogel's
approximation method yields the best starting solution and the north-west corner
method yields the worst. However, the latter is easier, quick and involves the
least computations to get the initial solution.
North-West Corner Rule or North-West Corner Method (NWCM)
This rule may be stated as follows:
(i) Start in the north-west (upper left) corner of the requirements table i.e., the
transportation matrix framed in step I and compare the supply of plant 1 (call it
S1) with the requirement of distribution centre 1 (call it DI).
(a) If Di < S, i.e., if the amount required at Di is less than the number of units
available at S,, set xii equal to DI, find the balance supply and demand and
proceed to cell (l, 2) (i.e., proceed horizontally).
(b) If D1, = S1, set xi i equal to D1, compute the balance supply and demand and
proceed to cell (2, 2) (i.e., proceed diagonally). Also make a zero allocation to the
least cost cell in S1 /D1.
(c) If D1, > S1, set.ri; equal to S1, compute the balance supply and demand and
proceed to cell (2, 1) (i.e., proceed vertically).
(ii) Continue in this manner, step by step, away from the north-west corner until,
finally, a value is reached in the south-east corner.
Thus in the present example (see table 3.6), one proceeds as follows:
58
(i) set x, I equal to 6, namely, the smaller of the amounts avaiblable at S, (6) and
that needed at D, (7) and
(ii) proceed to cell (2, 1) (rule c). Compare the number of units available at S2
(namely 1) with the amount required at D i (1) and accordingly set x2 i = 1. Also
set X22 = 0 as per rule (b) above.
(iii) proceed to cell (3, 2) (rule b). Now supply from plant S3 is 10 units while the
demand for D2 is 5 units; accordingly set x3Z equal to 5.
(iv) proceed to cell (3, 3) (rule a) and allocate 3 there.
(v) proceed to cell (3, 4) (rule a) and allocate 2 there.
It can be easily seen that the proposed solution is a feasible solution since all
supply and demand constraints are fully satisfied.
The following points may be noted in connection with this method:
(i) The quantities allocated are put in parenthesis and they represent the values
of the corresponding decision variables. These cells are called basic or allocated
or occupied or loaded cells. Cells without allocations are called non-basic or
vacant or empty or unoccupied or unloaded cells. Values of the corresponding
variables are all zero in these cells.
(ii) This method of allocation does not take into account the transportation cost
and, therefore, may not yield a good (most economical) initial solution. The
transportation cost associated with this solution is
e = Rs. [2 x 6 + 1 x 1 + 8 x 5 + 15 x 3 + 9 x 2] x 100 = Rs. 11,600.
(2) Row Minima Method
This method consists in allocating as much as possible in the lowest cost cell of
the first centre so that either the capacity of the first plant is exhausted or the
requirement at jth distribution centre is satisfied or both. In case of tie among the
cost, select arbitrarily. Three cases arise: (i) if the capacity of the first plant is
completely exhausted, cross off the first row and proceed to the second row.
59
(ii) if the requirement at jth distribution centre is satisfied, cross off the jth column
and reconsider the first row with the remaining capacity.
(iii) if the capacity of the first plant as well as the requirement at jth distribution
centre are completely satisfied, make a zero allocation in the second lowest cost
cell of the first row. Cross off the row as well as the jth column and move down to
the second row.
Continue the process for the resulting reduced transportation table until all the
rim conditions (supply and requirement conditions) are satisfied.
In this problem, we first allocate to cell (1, 1) in the first row as it contains the
minimum cost 2. We allocate min. (6, 7) (6) in this cell. This exhausts the supply
capacity of plant I and thus the first row is crossed off. The next allocation, in the
resulting reduced matrix is made in cell (2, 2) of row 2 as it contains the minimum
cost 0 in that row. We allocate min. (1, 5) (1) in this cell. This exhausts the supply
capacity of plant 2 and thus the second row is crossed off. The next allocation, in
the resulting reduced matrix is made in cell (3, 1) of row 3 as it contains the
minimum cost 5 in that row. We allocate min. (1, 10) (1) in this cell. This exhausts
the requirement condition of distribution centre 1 and hence the first column is
crossed off. Proceeding in this way we allocate (4), (2) and (3) units to cells (3,
60
2), (3, 4) and (3, 3) till all the rim conditions are met with. The resulting matrix is
shown in table 3.7.
The transportation cost associated with this solution is
Z = Rs. [2 x 6 + 0 x 1 + 5 x 1 + 8 x 4 + 15 x 3 + 9 x 2] x 100 = Rs. 11,200, which
is less than the cost associated with solution obtained by N-W corner method.
(3) Column Minima Method
This method consists in allocating as much as possible in the lowest cost cell of
the first column so that either the demand of the first distribution centre is
satisfied or the capacity of the ith plant is exhausted or both. In case of tie
among the lowest cost cells in the column, select arbitrarily. Three cases arise:
(i) if the requirement of the first distribution centre is satisfied, cross off the first
column and move right to the second column. -
(ii) if the capacity of ith plant is satisfied, cross off ith row and reconsider the
first column with the remaining requirement.
(iii) if the requirement of the first distribution centre as well as the capacity of
the ith plant are completely satisfied, make a zero allocation in the second
lowest cost cell of the first column. Cross off the column as well as the ith row
and move right to the second column.
Continue the process for the resulting reduced transportation table until all the
rim conditions are satisfied.
61
In the given problem we allocate first to cell (2, 1) in the first column as it
contains the minimum cost 1. We allocate min. (1, 7) = (1) in this cell. This
exhausts the supply capacity of plant 2 and thus the second row is crossed off.
The next allocation in the resulting reduced matrix
is made in cell (1, 1) of column 1 as it contains the second lowest cost 2 in that
column. We allocate min. (6, 6) = (6) in this cell. This exhausts the supply
capacity of plant 1 as well as the requirement of distribution centre 1. Therefore,
we allocate zero in cell (3, 1) of the first column, cross off first row and first
column and move on to the second column. Proceeding in this way we allocate
(5), (3) and (2) to cells (3, 2), (3, 3) and (3, 4) till all the rim conditions are met
with. The resulting matrix is shown in table 3.8.
The transportation cost associated. with this solution is
Z= Rs. [2 x 6 + 1 x 1 + s x 0 + 8 x 5 + IS x 3 + 9 x 2] x 100 = Rs. 11,600, which
is same as the cost associated with solution obtained by N-W corner method.
(4) Least-Cost Method (or Matrix Minima Method or Lowest Cost Entry
Method)
This method consists in allocating as much as possible in the lowest cost
cell/cells and then further allocation is done in the cell/cells with second lowest
62
cost and so on. In case of tie among the cost, select the cell where
allocation of more number of units can be made. Consider the matrix for
the problem under study.
Here, the lowest cost cell is (2, 2) and maximum possible allocation (meeting
supply and requirement positions) is made here. Evidently, maximum
feasible allocation in cell (2, 2) is (1). This meets the supply position of plant
2. Therefore, row 2 is crossed out, indicating that no allocations are to be
made in cells (2, 1), (2, 3) and (2, 4).
The next lowest cost cell (excluding the cells in row 2) is (1, 1); maximum
possible allocation of (6) is made here and row I is crossed out. Next lowest
cost cell in row 3 is (3, 1) and allocation of (1) is done here. Likewise,
allocations of (4), (2) and (3) are done in cells (3, 2), (3, 4) and (3, 3)
respectively. The transportation cost associated with this solution is
Z =Rs.(2x6+0x1+5x1+8x4+15x3+9x2)x100
=Rs.(12+0+5-'-32+45+18)x100=Rs.11,200,
which is less than the cost associated with the solution obtained by N-W
corner method.
(5) Vogel's Approximation Method (VAM) or Penalty Method or Regret
Method
Vogel's approximation method is a heuristic method and is preferred to the
methods described above. In the transportation matrix if an allocation is
made in the second lowest cost cell instead of the lowest, then this allocation
will have associated with it a penalty corresponding to the difference of these
two costs due to `loss of advantage'. That is to say, if we compute the
63
difference between the two lowest costs for each row and column, we find
the opportunity cost relevant to each row and column. It would be most
economical to make allocation against the row or column with the highest
opportunity cost. For a given row or column, the allocation should obviously
be made in the least cost cell of that row or column. Vogel's approximation
method, therefore, makes effective use of the cost information and yields a
better initial solution than obtained by the other methods. This method
consists of the following substeps:
Substep Write down the cost matrix as shown below.
Enter the difference between the smallest and second smallest element in
each column below the corresponding column and the difference between
the smallest and second smallest element in each row to the right of 'he row.
Put these numbers in brackets as shown. For example, in column 1, the two
lowest elements are 1 and 2 and their difference is 1 which is entered as [1]
below column l. Similarly, the two smallest elements in row 2 are 0 and 1 and
their difference 1 is entered as [1] to the right of row 2. A row or column
"difference" can be thought of a penalty for making allocation in second
smallest cost cell instead of smallest cost cell. In other words this difference
indicates the unit penalty incurred by failing to make an allocation to the
smallest cost cell in that row or column. In case the smallest and second
smallest elements in a row/column are equal, the penalty should be taken as
zero.
64
Substep 1: Select the row or column with the greatest difference and allocate
as much as possible within the restrictions of the rim conditions to the lowest
cost cell in the row or column selected.
In case of tie among the highest penalties, select the row or column having
minimum cost. In case of tie in the minimum cost also, select the cell which can
have maximum allocation. If there is tie among maximum allocation cells also,
select the cell arbitrarily for allocation. Following these rules yields the best
possible initial basic feasible solution and reduces the number of iterations
required to reach the optimal solution.
Thus since [6] is the greatest number in brackets, we choose column 4 and
allocate as much as possible to the cell (2, 4) as it has the lowest cost 1 in
column 4. Since supply is 1 while the requirement is 2, maximum possible
allocation is (1).
Substep 3: Cross out of the row or column completely satisfied by the allocation
just made. For the assignment just made at (2, 4), supply of plant 2 is
completely satisfied. So, row 2 is crossed out and the shrunken matrix is written
below.
This matrix consists of the rows and columns where allocations have not yet
been made, including revised row and column totals which take the already
made allocation into account. Substep 4: Repeat steps 1 to 3 until all
assignments have been made.
(a) Column 2 exhibits the greatest difference of [5]. Therefore, we allocate (5)
units to cell (1, 2), since it has the smallest transportation cost in column 2.
65
Since requirements of column 2 are completely satisfied, this column is crossed
out and the reduced matrix is written again as fable 3.12.
(b) Differences are recalculated. The maximum difference is [5]. Therefore, we
allocate (1) to the cell (1, I) since it has the lowest cost in row 1. Since
requirements of row 1 are fully satisfied, it is crossed out and the reduced
matrix is written below.
In table 3.13, it is, possible to find row differences but it is not possible to find
column differences. Therefore, remaining allocations in this table are made by
following the least cost method,
(c) As cell (3, 1) has the lowest cost 5, maximum possible allocation of (6) is
made here. Likewise, next allocation of (1) is made in cell (3, 4) and (3) in cell
(3, 3) as shown.
All allocations made during the above procedure are shown below in
thelallocation matrix.
66
The above repetitions can be made in a single matrix as shown in table 3.15.
Table 3.15
The cost of transportation associated with the above solution is
Z=Rs.(2x1+3x5+1 x 1+5x6+15x3+9x1) x100
= Rs. (2 + 15 + I + 30 + 45 + 9) x 100 = Rs. 10, 200,
which is evidently the least of all the values of transportation cost found by
different methods. Since Vogel's approximation method results in the most
economical initial feasible solution, we shall use this method for finding such a
solution for all transportation problems henceforth.
Step III: Perform Optimality Test
Make an optimality test to find whether the obtained feasible solution is optimal
or not. An optimality test can, of course, be performed only on that feasible
'solution in which
(a) number of allocations is m + n - I, where m is the number of rows and n is
the number of columns. [n,the given situation, m = 3 and n = 4 and number of
67
allocations is 6 which is equal to (m + n - 1) (3 + 4 - 1 = 6). Hence optimality
test can be performed.
(b) these (m + n - I ) allocations should be in independent positions.
A look at the feasible solution of the problem under consideration indicates that
all the allocations are in independent positions as it is impossible to increase or
decrease any allocation without either changing the position of the allocations
or violating the row and column restrictions. For example, if the allocation in cell
(l, 1) is changed from (I) to (3), the allocation in cell (1, 2) must be changed
from (5) to (3) in order to satisfy the row restriction. Similarly, the allocation in
cell (3, 1) must be changed from (6) to (4) in order to meet the column
restriction. This will, in turn, require changes in the allocations of cell (3, 3)
and/or cell (3, 4).
A simple rule for allocations to be in independent positions is that it is
impossible to travel from any allocation, back to itself by a series of horizontal
and vertical jumps from -o&' occupied cell to another, without a direct reversal
of route. For instance, the occupied cells in table 3.16 are not in independent
positions because the cells (2, 2), (2, 3), (3, 3) and (3, 2) from a closed loop.
68
Now test procedure for optimality involves examination of each vacant cell to
find whether or not making an allocation in it reduces the total transportation
cost. The two methods commonly used for this purpose are the stepping-stone
method and the modified distribution (MODI) method.
1. The stepping-Stone Method
Consider the matrix giving the initial feasible solution for the problem under
consideration. Let us start with any arbitraty empty cell (a cell without
allocation), say (3, 2) and allocate + 1 unit to this cell. As already discussed, in
order to keep up the column 2 restriction, - 1 must be allocated to cell (1, 2) and
to keep up the row i restriction, + 1 must be allocated to cell (1,.1) and
consequently- 1 must be allocated to cell (3, 1); this is shown in the matrix
below.
The net change in transportation cost as a result of this perturbation is called
the evaluation of the empty cell in question.
Evaluation of cell (3, 2) = Rs. 100 x (8 x 1 - 5 x 1 + 2 x 1 - 5 x 1)
= Rs. (0 x 100) = Rs. 0.
Thus the total transportation cost increases by Rs. 0 for each unit allocated to
cell (3, 2). Likewise, the net evaluation (also called opportunity cost) is
calculated for every empty cell. For this the following simple procedure may be
adopted.
Starting from the chosen empty cell, trace a path m the matrix consisting of a
series of alternate horizontal and vertical lines. The path begins and
69
terminates in the chosen cell. All other corners of the path lie in the cells for
which allocations have been made. The path rnay skip over any number of
occupied or vacant cells. Mark the corner of the path in the chosen vacant cell
as positive and other corners of the path alternately -ve, +ve, -ve and so on.
Allocate I unit to the chosen cell; subtract and add I unit from the cells at the
comers of the path, maintaining the row and column requirements. The net
cnange in the total cost resulting from this adjustment is called the evaluation
of the chosen empty cell. Evaluations of the various empty cells (in hundreds
of rupees) are:
If any cell evaluation is negative, the cost can be reduced so that the solution
under consideration can be improved i.e., it is not optimal. On the other hand,
if all cell evaluations are positive or zero, the solution in question will be
optimal. Since evaluations of cells (1, 3) and (2, 3) are -ve, initial basic
feasible solution given in table 3.15 is not optimal.
Now in a transportation problem involving m rows and n columns, the total
number. of empty cells will be m.n - (m + n - 1) = (m - 1)(n - 1). Therefore,
there are (m - 1)(n - 1) such cell evaluations which must be calculated and for
large problems, the method can be quite inefficient. This method is named
'stepping-stone' since only occupied cells or `stepping stones' are used in the
evaluation of vacant cells.
2. The Modified Distribution (MODI) Method or the u-v Method
70
In the stepping-stone method, a closed path is traced for each unoccupied
cell. Cell evaluations are found and the cell with the most negative evaluation
becomes the basic cell. In the modified distribution method, cell evaluations of
all the unoccupied cells are calculated simultaneously and only one closed
path for the most negative cell is traced. Thus it provides considerable time
saving over the stepping-stone method. This method consists of the following
substeps:
Substep 1: Set-up a cost matrix containing the unit costs associated with the
cells for which allocations have been made. This matrix for the present
example is
Substep 2: Introduce dual variables corresponding to the supply and demand
constraints. If there are m origins and n destinations, there will be m + n dual
variables. Let u;(i = 1, 2, ..., m) and v j (j = I, 2, ..., n) be the dual variables
corresponding to supply and demand constraints. Variables ui and vj are such
that ui+vj = cij for all occupied cells. . .
Therefore, enter a set of numbers u; (i = 1, 2, 3) along the left of the matrix
and vj (j = 1, 2, 3, 4) across the top of the matrix so that their sums equal the
costs entered in substep 1.
Thus,
ui + vj =2
ul + v2 = 3,
u2 + v4 = 1,
u3 + v1 = 5,
u3 + v3 = 15,
and u3 + v4 = 9.
71
Since number of dual variables are m + n (3 + 4 = 7 in the present problem)
and number of allocations (in a non-degenerate solution) are m + n - 1 (3 + 4
- 1 = 6 in the present problem), one variable is assumed arbitrarily. Let v i =
0. Therefore, from the above equations
u1=2,v2= 1, u3=5, v3=10, v4 = 4, u2 = -3.
The values of these dual variables satisfy the complementary slackness
theorem which states that if primal constraints are equations, dual variables
are unrestricted in sign (Refer section 6.1.3). Therefore, the matrix may be
written
Now for any vacant (empty) cell, u i + vj is called the implicit cost, whereas c ij;
is called the actual cost of the cell. The two costs are compared and c ij (ui +
vj) are calculated for each empty cell. If all c ij - (ui + vj) > 0, then by the
application of complementary slackness theorem it can
be shown that the corresponding solution is optimum. If any c ij - (u; + v,) c0,
the solution is not optimal. c i (ui + vj) is called the evaluation of the cell (i, j)
or opportunity cost of cell (i, j). Thus we have the following three substeps:
Substep 3: Fill the vacant cells with the sums of u; and y. This is shown in
table 3.20.
72
Snbstep J: Subtract the cell values of the matrix of substep 3 from the
original cost matrix.
The resulting matrix is called cell evaluation matrix.
Substep S: Signs of the values in the cell evaluation matrix indicate whether
optimal solution has been obtained or not. The signs have the following
significance:
(a) A negative value in an unoccupied cell indicates that a better solution can
be obtained by allocating units to this cell.
(6) A positive value in an unoccupied cell indicates that a poorer solution will
result by allocating units to the cell.
(c) A zero value in an unoccupied cell indicates that another solution of the
same total value can be obtained by allocating units to this cell. In the present
example since two cell evaluations are negative. it is possible to obtain a better
solution by making these cells as basic cells.
Step IV: Iterate Towards an Optimal Solution
This involves the following substeps:
73
Substep'1 From the cell evaluation matrix, identify the cell with the most
negative cell evaluation. This is the rate by which total transportation cost can
be reduced if one unit is allocated this cell; in case more units are allocated, the
cost will come down proportionately. Therefore,-as many units as possible
(keeping in mind the rim conditions) will be allocated to this cell to bring down
the cost by maximum amount. !n ease of tie in the cell evaluation, the cell
wherein maximum allocation can be made is selected. This cell is now called
the identified cell. With reference to the simplex method, this identified cell is
currently the non-basic cell that has been decided to be made basic (decided to
enter the solution) by making allocation in it. [n the present problem both the
tied cells will have the same maximum allocation of 1 unit. Hence cell (1, 3) is
selected arbitrarily.
Substep 2: Write down again the initial basic feasible solution that is to be
improved. Check mark (V) the identified cell. This is shown in table 3.23.
Having decided the vacant cell that is to be made basic, the next thing is to
decide which basic cell should be made non-basic by changing its present
allocation to zero. For this we go to substep 3.
Substep 3: Trace a closed path in the matrix. This closed path has the following
characteristics:
(i) It begins and terminates in the identified cell.
(ii) It consists of 9 series of alternate horizontal and vertical lines only (no
diagonals). (iii) It can be traced clockwise or anticlockwise.
74
(iv) All other corners of the path lie in the allocated cells only.
(v) The path may skip over any number of allocated or vacant cells.
(vi) There will always be one and only one closed path, which may be traced.
The closed path has even number of corners (4, 6, 8, ...) and any allocated cell
can be considered only once. The closed path may or may not be square or
rectangular in shape; it may have a peculiar configuration and the lines may
even cross over.
Substep 4: Mark the identified cell as positive and each occupied cell at the
corners of the path alternately -ve, +ve, -ve and so on.
Substep 5: Make a new allocation in the identified cell by entering the smallest
allocation on the path that has been assigned a-ve sign. Add and subtract this
new allocation from the cells at the corners of the path, maintaining the row and
column requirements. This causes one basic cell to become zero and other
cells remain non-negative. The basic cell whose allocation has been made
zero, leaves the solution.
Since cell evaluation (in hundreds of rupees) is - 1 and 1 unit has been
reallocated, the total transportation cost should come down by Rs. (100 x 1) =
Rs. 100: This can be vertified by actually calculating the total cost for table
3.25.
The total cost of transportation for this 2nd feasible solution is
= Rs.(3x5+11 xl+l x 1+7x5+2x 15+1 x9)x 100
= Rs. (15 + 11 + 1 + 35 + 30 + 9) x 100
75
= Rs. 10,100, which is less than for the first (starting) feasible solution by Rs.
100.
Step V: Check for Optimality
Let us check whether the solution obtained above is optimal or not. This shall
be checked by repeating the steps under `check for optimality' already made. In
the above feasible solution, (a) number of allocations is (m + n - 1) i.e., 6,
(b) these (m + n - 1) allocations are in independent positions. -
Above conditions being satisfied, an optimality test can be performed as
follows:
Substep l: Set.up the cost matrix containing the costs associated with the cells
for which allocations have been made.
Substep 2: Enter a set of numbers vj along the top of the matrix and a set of
number: u; at the left side se that their sum is equal to costs entered in matrix of
substep 1, shown below:-
These values are shown entered in matrix 3.26.
76
Substep 3: Fill the vacant cells with the sums of u i and vj.
Substep 4: Subtract the cell values of this matrix from the original cost
matrix. Table 3.28
This matrix 3.29 is called cell evaluation matrix.
Substep S: Since one cell value is -ve, the 2nd feasible solution is not
optimal.
Step VI: Iterate Towards an Optimal Solution
This involves the following substeps:
Substep 1: In the cell evaluation matrix, identify the cell with the most
negative entry. It is the cell (2, 3).
Substep 2: Write down again the feasible solution in question.
77
Mark the empty cell (J) for which the evaluation is negative, This is called
identified cell. Substep 3: Trace the path shown in the matrix.
Substep 4'. Mark the identified cell as +ve and others alternately -ve and
+ve.
Substep 5: Make the new allocation in the identified cell by entering the
smallest allocation on the path which has been assigned negative sign.
Subtract and add this amount from other cells. Tables 3.31 and 3.32 result.
Table 3.31
For this allocation matrix the transportation cost is
Z=Rs.(5x3+1x11+1x6+1x15+2x9+7x5)x100=Rs.10,000.
Thus it is a better solution. Let us see if it is an optimal solution.
Step VII: Test for Optimality
In the above feasible solution
(a) number of allocations is m + -n - 1 i.e., 6.
(b) These m + n - 1 allocations are in independent positions. Hence repeat
the following substeps:
Substep 1: Set-up the cost matrix containing costs associated with cells for
which allocations have been made. This is table 3.33.
78
Substep 3: Fill up the vacant cells also as shown above.
Substep 4: Subtract the cell values of the above matrix from the original
cost matrix. Tables 3.35 and 3.36 result.
Substep 5: Since all the cell values are positive, the third feasible solution given
by table 3.37 is the optimal solution.
79
Therefore the optimal solution is:
Milk plant Distribut1 2 3
ion
centre
2
No. of units
transported
5
Transportation
Cost/unit (Rs.)
300
Total transportation
cost (Rs.)
1,500
3 1 1,100 1,100
3 1 600 600
1 7 ;00 3,500
3 1 1,500 1,500
4 2 900 1,800
Rs. 10,000
80
UNIT 4 :
Assignment Problem
4.1 DEFINITION OF THE ASSIGNMENT MODEL
An assignment problem concerns as to what happens to the effectiveness
function when we associate each of a number of `origins' with each of the
same number of `destinations'. Each resource or facility (origin) is to be
associated with one and only one job (destination) and associations are to
be made in such a way so as to maximize (or minimize) the total
effectiveness. Resources are not divisible among jobs, nor are jobs divisible
among resources.
The assignment problem may be defined as follows:
Given n facilities and n jobs and given the effectiveness of each facility for
each job, the problem is to assign each facility to one and only one job so as
to optimize the given measure of effectiveness.
Table 4.1 represents the assignment of n facilities (machines) to njobs c ij is
cost of assigning ith facility to jth job and c ij represents the assignment of ith
facility to jib job. If ith facility can be assigned to jib job, xij = 1 otherwise
zero. The objective is to make assignments that minimize the total
assignment cost or maximize the total associated gain.,
Thus an assignment problem can be represented by n x n matrix which
constitutes n: possible ways of making assignments. One obvious way to
find the optimal solution is to write all the n! possible arrangements, evaluate
the cost of each and select the one involving the minimum cost. However, this
enumeration method is extremely slow and time consuming even for small
81
values of n. For example, for n = 10, a common situation, the number of
possible arrangements is 10! = 3,628,800. Evaluation of so large a number of
arrangements will take a prohibitively large time. This confirms the need for an
efficient computational technique for solving such problems.
4.2 MATHEMATICAL REPRESENTATION OF THE ASSIGNMENT MODEL
Mathematically, the assignment model can be expressed as follows:
Let xij denote the assignment of facility i to job j such that
We see that if the last condition is replaced by xij ? 0, we have transportation
model with all requirements and available resources equal to 1.
4.3 COMPARISON WITH THE TRANSPORTATION MODEL
An assignment model may be regarr:,5d as a special case of the transportation
model. Here, (refer table 4.1) facilities represent the 'sources' and jobs
represent the `destinations'. Number of sources is equal to the number of
destinations, supply at each source is unity (a; = 1 for all a) and demand at
each destination is also unity (b, = 1, for all j). The cost of `transporting'
(assigning) facility i to job j is c;; and the number of units allocated to a cell can
be either one or zero, i. e. they are non-negative quantities.
However the transportation algorithm is not very useful to solve this model
because of degeneracy. In this model, when an assignment is made, the row as
82
well as column requirements are satisfied simultaneously (rim conditions being
always unity), resulting in degeneracy. Thus the assignment problem is a
completely degenerate form of the transportation problem. In n x n problem,
there will be n assignments instead of n + n - I or 2n - 1 and we will have to fill
in 2n - I - n = n - 1 epsilons which will make the computations quite
combersome. However, the special structure of the assignment model allows a
more convenient and simple method of solution.
The technique used for solving assignment model makes use of two theorems:
4.4 SOLUTION OF THE ASSIGNMENT MODELS
The technique of solution of the assignment models will be made clear now.
Since the solution applies the concept of opportunity costs, a brief description
of this concept may be useful. The cost of any action consists of opportunities
that are sacrificed in taking that action. Consider the following table which
contains the cost in rupees of processing each ofjobs A, e and Con machines
Suppose it is decided to process job A on machine X. The table shows that the
cost of this assignment is Rs. 25. Since machine Y could just as well process job
A for Rs. 15, clearly assigning job A to machine X is not the best decision.
Therefore, when job A is arbitrarily assigned to machine X, it is done by
sacrificing the opportunity to save Rs. 10 (Rs. 25 - Rs. 15). The sacrifice is
referred to as an opportunity cost. The decision to process job A on machine X
precludes the assignment of this job to machine Y, given the constraint that one
and only one job can be assigned to a machine. Thus opportunity cost of
83
assignment of job A to machine X is Rs. 10 with respect to the lowest cost
assignment for job A. Likewise, a decision to assign job A to machine Z would
involve an opportunity cost of Rs. 7 (Rs. 22 - Rs. 15). Finally, since assignment
of job A to machine Y is the best assignment, the opportunity cost of this
assignment is zero (Rs. 15 - Rs. 15). More precisely these costs can be called
the machine-opportunity costs with regard to job A. Similarly, if the lowest cost of
row B is subtracted from all the costs in this row, we would have the machine-
opportunity costs with regard to jab B. The same step in row C would give the
machine-opportunity costs for job C. This is represented in the following table:
In addition to these machine-opportunity costs, there are job-opportunity costs
also. Job A, B or C, for instance, could be assigned to machine X. The
assignment of job B to machine X involves a cost of Rs. 31, while the assignment
of job A to machine X costs only Rs. 25. Therefore, the opportunity cost of
assigning job B to machine X is Rs. 6 (Rs. 31 - Rs. 25). Similarly, the opportunity
cost of assigning job C to machine X is Rs. 10 (Rs. 35 - Rs. 25). A zero
opportunity cost is involved in the assignment of job A to machine X, since this is
the best assignment for machine X (column X). Hence job-opportunity costs for
each column (each machine) are obtained by subtracting the lowest cost entry in
each column from all the cost entries in that column. If the lowest entry in each
column of table 4.3 is subtracted from all the cost entries of that column, the
resulting table is called total opportunity cost table.
84
It may be recalled that the objective is to assign the jobs to the machines so as to
minimize total costs. With the total opportunity cost table this objective will be
achieved if the jobs are assigned to the machines in such a way as to obtain a
total opportunity cost of zero. The total opportunity cost table contains four cells
with zeros, each indicating a zero opportunity cost for ±at cell (assignment).
Hence job A could be assigned to machine X or Y and job B to machine Z all
assignments having zero opportunity costs. This way job C, however, could not
be assigned to any machine with a zero opportunity cost since assignment of job
B to machine Z precludes the assignment of job C to this machine. Clearly, to
make an optimal assignment of the three jobs to the three machines, there must
be three zero cells in the table such that a complete assignment to these cells
can be made with a total opportunity cost of zero.
There is, in fact, a convenient method for determining whether an optimal
assignment can be made. This method consists of drawing minimum number of
lines covering all zero cells in the total opportunity cost table. If the minimum
number of lines equals the number of rows (or columns) in the table, an optimal
assignment can be made and the problem is solved. If, however, the minimum
number of lines is less than the number of rows (or columns), an optimal
assignment cannot be made. In this case there is need to develop a new total
opportunity cost table. In the present example, since it requires only two lines to
cross (cover) all zeros, and there are three rows, an optimal assignment is not
possible. Clearly, there is a need to modify the total opportunity cost table by
including some assignment not in the rows and columns covered by the lines. Of
85
course, the assignment chosen should have the least opportunity cost. In the
present case it is the assignment of job B to machine Y with an opportunity cost
of 1. In other words, we would like to change the opportunity cost for this
assignment from 1 to zero.
To accomplish this we (a) choose the smallest element in the table not covered
by a straight line and subtract this element from all other elements not having a
line through them (b) add this smallest elemenf to all elements lying at the
intersection of any two lines. The revised total opportunity cost table is shown
below.
The test for optimal assignment described above is applied again to the revised
opportunity cost table. As the minimum number of lines covering all zeros is three
and there are three rows (or columns), an optimal assignment can be made. The
optimal assignments are A to X, B to Y and C to Z.
In larger problems, however, the assignments may not be readily apparent and
there is need for more systematic procedure.
86
4.5 THE HUNGARIAN METHOD FOR SOLUTION OF THE ASSIGNMENT
PROBLEMS
The Hungarian method suggested by Mr. Koning of Hungary or the Reduced
matrix method or the Flood's technique is used for solving assignment problems
since it is quite efficient and results in subtantial time saving over the other
techniques. It involves a rapid reduction of the original matrix and finding of a set
of n independent zeros, one in each row and column, which results in an optimal
solution. The method consists of the following steps:
1. Prepare a square matrix. This step will not be required for n x n assignment
problems. For m x n (m # n) problems, a dummy column or a dummy row, as the
case may be, is added to make the matrix square.
2. Reduce the matrix. Subtract the smallest element of each row from all the
elements of the row. So there will be at least one zero in each row. Examine if
there is at least one zero in each column. If not, subtract the minimum element of
the column(s) not containing zero from all the elements of that column(s). This
step reduces the elements of the matrix until zeros, called zero opportunity costs,
are obtained in each column.
3. Cheek whether an optimal assignment can be made in the reduced matrix or
not. For this (a) Examine rows successively until a row with exactly one
unmarked zero is obtained. Make an assignment to this single zero by making
square (0) around it. Cross (x) all other zeros in the same column as they will not
be considered for making any more assignment S in that column. Proceed in
this way until all rows have been examined.
(b) Now examine columns successively until a column with exactly one
unmarked zero is found. Make an assignment there by making a square (E])
around it and cross (x) any other zeros in the same row.
In case there is no row or column containing single unmarked zero (they contain
more than one unmarked zero), mark square (0) around any unmarked zero
arbitrarily and cross (x) all other zeros in its row and column Proceed in this
manner till there is no unmarked zero left in the cost matrix.
Repeat sub-steps (a) and (b) till one of the following two things occur:
87
(i) There is one assignment in each row and in each column. In this case the
optimal assignment can be made in the current solution, i.e. the current feasible
solution is an optimal solution. The minimum number of lines crossing all zeros is
n, the order of the matrix.
(ii) There is some row and/or column without assignment. In this case optimal
assignment cannot be made in the current solution. The minimum number of
lines crossing all zeros have to be obtained in this case by following step 4.
4. Find the minimum number of lines crossing all zeros. This consists of the
following sub
steps:
(a) Mark (√) the rows that do not have assignments.
(b) Mark (√) the columns (not already marked) that have zeros in marked rows.
(c) Mark (√) the rows (not already marked) that have assignments in marked
columns.
(d) Repeat sub-steps (b) and (c) till no more rows or columns can be marked.
(e) Draw straight lines through all unmarked rows and marked columns. This
gives the minimum number of lines crossing all zeros. If this number is equal to
the order of the matrix, then it is an optimal solution, otherwise go to step 5.
5. Iterate towards the optimal solution. Examine the uncovered elements. Select
the smallest dement and subtract it from all the uncovered elements. Add this
smallest element to every dewient that lies at the intersection of two lines. Leave
the remaining elements of the matrix as =wk This yields second basic feasible
solution.
6. Repeat steps 3 through 5 successively until the number of lines crossing all
zeros becomes equal to the order of the matrix. In such a case every row and
column will have one assignment. This indicates that an optimal solution has
been obtained. The total cost associated with this solution is obtained by adding
the original costs in the assigned cells.
88
Flow chart of these steps is shown in Fig. 4.1 below.
89
4.6 FORMULATION AND SOLUTION OF THE ASSIGNMENT MODELS
In this section we shall consider a few examples which will make clear the
techniques of formulation and solution of the assignment models.
The Assignment Model ) 329
EXAMPLE 4.6-1 (Assignment Problem)
A machine tool company decides to make four subassemblies through four
contractors. Each contractor is to receive only one subassembly. The cost of
each subassembly is determined by the bids submitted by each contractor and is
shown in table 4.7 in hundreds of rupees.
(i) Formulate the mathematical model for the problem.
(ii) Show that the assignment model is a special case of the transportation model.
(iii) Assign the different subassemblies to contractors so as to minimize the total
cost. [P.UB.Ii(Elect) Oct., 1993; ]WIFTMohali, 2000]
(i) Formulation of the Model
Step I
Key decision is what to whom i.e., which subassembly be assigned to which
contractor or what are the `n' optimum assignments on 1-1 basis. ,
Feasible alternatives are n! possible arrangements for n x n assignment situation.
In the given situation there are 4! different arrangements.
Step III
Objective is to minimize the total cost involved,
90
Step IV
Constraints' (a) Constraints on subassemblies are xiI +x1z +xi3 +x1a = 1,
(b) Constraints on contractors are
(ii) Comparing this model with the transportation model, we find that ai = 1 and bi
= 1. Thus, the assignment model can be represented as in table 4.8.
Therefore, the assignment model is a special case of the transportation model in
which
a) all right-hand side constants in the constraints are unity i.e., a, = l , bi = l.
(b) all coefficients of x; in the constraints are unity.
(c) m = n.
91
(iii) Solution of the Model
We shall apply the Flood's Technique for solving the assignment problems. This
technique also known as the Hungarian Method or the Reduced Matrix Method
consists of the following steps:
Step I
Prepare a Square Matrix: Since the situation involves a square matrix, this step is
not necessary. '
Step If
Reduce the Matrix: This involves the following substeps:
Substep 1: In the effectiveness matrix, subtract the minimum element of each
row from all the elements of that row. The resulting reduced matrix will have at
least one zero element in each row. Check if there is at least one zero element in
each column also. If so, stop here. If not, proceed to substep 2.
Substep 2: Mark the columns that do not have zero element. Now subtract the
minimum element of each such coulmn from all the elements of that column.
In the given situation, the minimum element in first row is 13. So, we subtract 13
from all the elements of the first row. Similarly we subtract 11, 10 and 14 from all
the elements of row 2, 3 and 4 respectively. This gives at least one zero in each
row as shown in table 4.9.
In table 4.9 column 4 has no zero element. We go to substep 2 and subtract the
minimum element 1 from all its elements. Table 4.10 represents the resulting
reduced matrix that contains at least one zero element in each row and in each
column.
92
Step III
Check if Optimal Assignment can be made in the Current Solution or not
Basis for making this check is that if the minimum number of lines crossing all
zeros is less than n (in our example n = 4), then an optimal assignment cannot
be made in the current solution. If it is equal to n (= 4), then optimal assignment
can be made in the current solution.
Approach for obtaining minimum number of lines crossing all zeros consists of
the following substeps:
Substep 1: Examine rows successively until a row with exactly one unmarked
zero is found. Make a square (p) around this zero, indicating that an assignment
will be made there. Mark (x) all other zeros in the same column showing that they
cannot be used for making other assignments. Proceed in this manner until all
rows have been examined.
In the given problem, row 1 has a single unmarked zero in column 2. Make an
assignment there by enclosing this zero by a square []. It means subassembly 1
is assigned to contractor 2. Since contractor 2 has been assigned sub assembly
1 and as a contractor can be assigned only one subassembly, any other zero in
column 2 is crossed. Since there is no other zero in this column, crossing is not
required. Next, row 2 has a single unmarked zero in column 1, make an
assignment. Row 4 has a single unmarked zero in column 3, make an
assignment and cross the 2nd zero in column 3. Now, row 3 has a single
unmarked zero in column 4, make an assignment here. This is shown in the
matrix below.
93
Substep 2: Next examine columns for single unmarked zeros, making them (E])
and also marking (x) any other zeros in their rows.
In case there is no row or column containing single unmarked zero (there are
more than one unmarked zeros), mark (0) one of the unmarked zeros arbitraily
and (x) all other zeros in its row and column. Repeat the process till no unmarked
zero is left in the cost matrix.
Substep 3: Repeat substeps I and 2 successively till one of the two. things
occurs:
(a) there may be no row and no column without assignment i.e., there is one
assignment in each row and in each column. In such a case the optimal
assignment can be made in the current solution i.e., the current feasible solution
is an optimal solution. The minimum number of lines crossing all zeros will be
equal to `n'.
(b) there may be some row and/or column without assignment. Hence optimal
assignment cannot be made in the current solution. The minimum number of
lines crossing all zeros have to be obtained in this case.
In the present example, substeps 2 and 3 are not necessary since there is no
column left unmarked. Since there is one assignment in each row and in each
column, the optimal assignment can be made in the current solution. Thus
minimum total cost is
=Rs (13 x I+11 x 1+11 x 1+14x 1)x 100=Rs.4,900, and the optimal assignment
policy is
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Subassembly 1- Contractor 2,
Subassembly 2- Contractor 1,
Subassembly 3- Contractor 4,
Subassembly 4- Contractor 3,
The minimal cost of Rs. 4,900 can also be determined by summing up all the
elements that were subtracted during the solution procedure i. e., [(13 + 11 +
10 + 14) + 1 ] x 100 = Rs. 4,900.
95
UNIT : 5 THE THEORY OF GAMES
5.1 Introduction :
The theory of games (or game theory or competitive strategies) is a
mathematical theory that deals with the general features. of competitive
situations. This theory is helpful when two or more individuals or organisations
with conflicting objectives try to make decisions. In such situations,
a decision made by one decision-maker affects the decision made by one or
more of the remaining decision-makers and the final outcome depends upon the
decision of all the parties. Such situations often arise in the fields of business,
industry, economics, sociology and military training. This theory is applicable to a
wide variety of situations such as two players struggling to win at chess,
candidates fighting an election, two enemies planning war tactics, firms
struggling to maintain their market shares, launching advertisement campaigns
by companies marketing competing product, negotiations between organisations
and unions, etc. These situations differ from the ones we have discussed so far
wherein nature was viewed as a harmless opponent.
The theory of games is based on the. minimax principle put forward by J. von
Neumann which implies that each competitor will act so as to minimize has
miximum loss (or maximize his minimum gain) or achieve best of the worst. So
far only simple competitive problems have been analysed by this mathematical
theory. The theory does not describe how a game should be played; it describes
only the procedure and principles by which plays should be selected.
Though the theory of games was developed by von Neumann (called father of
game theory) in 1928', it was only after 1944 when he and MorgensYern
published their work named `Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour', that
the theory received its proper attention. Since, so far the theory has been
capable of analysing very simple situations only, there has remained a wide gap
between what the theory can handle and the most actual situations in business
and industry. So, the primary contribution of game theory has been its concepts
rather than its formal application to the solution of real problems.
96
5.2 CHARACTERISTICS OF GAMES
A competitive game has the following characteristics :
(i) There are finite number of participants or competitors. If the number of
participants is 2,
the game is called two-person game ; for number greater than two, it is called n-
person game.
(ii) Each participant has available to him a list of finite number of possible
courses of action. The list may not be same for each participant.
Decision Theory, Games, Investment Analysis and Annuity) 795
(iii) Each participant knows all the possible choices available to others but
does not know which of them is going to be chosen by them.
(iv) A play is said to occur when each of the participants chooses one of the
courses of action available to hikn. The choices are assumed to be made
simultaneously so that no participant knows the choices made by others
until he has decided his own.
(v) Every combination of courses of action determines an outcome which
results in gains to the participants. The gain may be positive, negative or
zero. Negative gain is called a loss.
(vi) The gain of a participant depends not oniy on his own actions but also
those of others.
(vii) The gains (payoffs) for each and every play are fixed and specified in
advance and are . known to each player. Thus each player knows fully the
information contained in the payoff matrix.
(viii) The players make individual decisions without direct communication.
5.3 GAME MODELS
There are various types of game models. They are based on the factors like
the number of players participating-, the sum of gains or losses and the
number of strategies available, etc.
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1. Number of persons : If a game involves only two players, it is called two-
person game; if there are more than two players, it is named n-person
game. An n-person game does not imply that exactly n players are involved
in it. Rather it means that the participants can be classified into n mutually
exclusive groups, with all members in a group having identical interests.
2. Sum of payoffs : If the sum of payoffs (gains and losses) to the players is
zero, the game is called zero-sum or constant-sum game, otherwise non
zero-sum game.
3. Number of strategies : If the number of strategies (moves or choices) is
finite, the game is called a finite game; if not, it is called infinite game.
5.4 DEFINITIONS
1. Game : It is an activity, between two or more persons, involving actions
by each one of them according to a set of rules, which results in some gain
(+ve, -ve or zero) for each. If in a game the actions are determined by
skills, it is called a game of strategy, if they are determined by chance, it is
termed as a game of chance. Further a game may be finite or infinite. A
finite game has a finite number of moves and choices, while an infinite
game contains an infinite number of them. -
2. Player : Each participant or competitor playing a game is called a player.
Each player is equally intelligent and rational in approach.
3. Play : A play of the game is said to occur when each player chooses one
of his courses of action. •
4. Strategy : It is the predetermined rule by which a player decides his
course of action from his list of courses of actions during the game. To
decide a particular strategy, the player need not know the other's strategy.
98
5. Pure strategy : It is the decision rule to always select a particular course
of action. It is usually represented by a number with which the course of
action is associated.
6, Mixed strategy : It is decision, in advance of all plays, to choose a course
of action for each play in accordance with some probability distribution.
Thus, a mixed strategy is a selection among pure strategies with some fixed
probabilities (proportions). The advantage of a mixed strategy, after the
pattern of the game has become evident, is that the opponents are kept
guessing as to which course of action will be adopted by a player.
Mathematically; a mixed strategy of a playerwith m possible courses of actions
is a set X of m non-negative numbers whose sum is unity, where each number
represents the probability with which each course of action (pure strategy) is
chosen. Thus if x, is the probability of choosing course i, then
where
Evidently a pure strategy is a special case of mixed strategy in which all but
one x, are zero. A player may be able to choose only m pure strategies but he
has an infinite number of mixed strategies to choose from.
7. Optimal strategy : The strategy that puts the player in the most preferred
position irrespective of the strategy of his opponents is called an optimal
strategy. Any deviation from this strategy would reduce his payoff.
8. Zero-sum game : It is a game in which the sum of payments to all the
players, after the play of the game, is zero. In such a game, the gain of
players that win is exactly equal to the loss of players that lose e.g., two
99
candidates fighting elections, wherein the gain of votes by one is the loss of
votes to the other.
9. Two-person zero-sum game: It is a game involving only two players,. in
which the gain of one player equals the loss to the other. It is also called a
rectangular game or matrix game because the payoff matrix is rectangular in
form. If there are n players and the sum of the game is zero, it is called n-
person zero-sum game. The characteristics of a two person zero-sum game
are
(a) only two players are involved,
(b) each player has a finite number of strategies to use, (c) each specific
strategy results in a payoff,
(c) total payoff to the two players at the end of each play is zero.
10. Nonzero-sum game : Here a third party (e.g. the `house' or a `kitty')
receives or makes some payment. A payoff matrix for such a game is shown
below. The left-hand entry in each cell is the payoff to A,
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and the right-hand entry is the payoff to B. Note that for play combination (1,1)
and (2, 2) the sums of the payoffs are not equal to zero.
11. Payoff: it is the outcome of the game. Payoff (gain or game) matrix is the
table showing the amounts received by the player named at the left-hand-side
after all possible plays of the game. The payment is made by player named at
the top of the table.
Let player A have in courses of action and player B have n courses of action.
Then the game can be described by a pair of matrices which can be constructed
as described below.
(a) Row designations for each matrix are the courses of action available to player A.
(b) Column designations for each matrix are the courses of action available to
player B.
(c) The cell entries are the payments to A for one matrix and to B for the other
matrix. The cell entry a„ is the payment to A in A's payoff matrix when A chooses
the course of action i and B chooses the course of action j.
(d) In a two-person zero-sum game, the cell entries in B's payoff matrix will be
the negative of the corresponding cell entries in A's payoff matrix. A is called
maximizing player as he would try to maximize the gains, while B is called
minimizing player as he would try to minimize his losses.
5.7 Some definitions
1. Strategy : A strategy of a player has been defined as an alternative course
of action available to him in advance by which player decides the course of
action that he should adopt. Strategy may be to types:
(a) Pure Strategy: If the players select the same strategy each time, then it is
referred to as pure strategy. In this case each player knows exactly what
101
the other is going to do and the objective of the players is to maximize
gains or minimize losses.
(b) Mixed Strategy: When the players use a combination of strategies and
each player always kept guessing as to which course of action is to be
selected by other player at a particular occasion then this is known as
mixed-strategy. Thus, there is a probabilistic situation and objective of the
player is to maximize expected gains or to minimize losses.
Mathematically, a mixed strategy, for a player with two or more possible courses
of action is denoted br- the set S of m non-negative real numbers (probabilities)
whose sum is unity. If xt (j = 1, 2, ..., n) is the probability of choosing course of
action j, then we have
S = (x1 x2, ..., xn)
Subject to the constraints
x1 + x2 + ….. xn = 1
xj >0; j=1,2,...,n
Optimal Strategy: The course of action or a complete plan that leaves a player in
the most preferred position regardless of the actions of his competitors is called
optimal strategy. Here by most preferred position we mean any deviation from
the optimal strategy or plan would result in decreased payoff.
Payoff: A quantitative measure (e.g. money, percent of market share or utility) of
satisfaction, a player gets at the end of game is called the payoff or outcome.
Value of the Game: It refers to the expected outcome per play when players
follow their optimal strategy.
5.8 TWO-PERSON ZERO-SUM GAME
There are two types of two-person zero sum games. In one, the most
preferred position is achieved adopting a single strategy and therefore the game
is known as the pure strategy game. The second me requires the adoption by
102
both players a combination of different strategies in order to achieve almost
preferred position and is therefore referred to as the mixed strategy game.
Payoff Matrix
A two person zero-sum game is conveniently represented by a matrix as shown
in Table 10.1. The which shows the outcome of the game as the players select
their particular strategies, is as the payoff matrix. It is important to assume that
each player knows not only his own list of possible courses of action but also of
his opponent.
Let player A has M courses of action (Al, A2, ..., A,,) and player B has n courses
of action (B1, B2 …… Bn). The numbers n and m need not be equal. The total
number of possible outcome is therefore ^i. These outcomes are shown in Table
.
By convention, the rows denote player A's strategies and the columns denote
player B's strategies. The element aij (i = 1, 2, ..., m; j =1, 2, ..., n) represents the
payments to player A by player B for any combination of strategies. Each round
of the game consists of a simultaneous choice of strategy Ai by player A and
strategy BI by player B. The payoff is then equal to aq. Of course the payment
make to B must be -a 1J . The above pay off matrix is a profit matrix for the
player A and a loss matrix for the player B. The positive elements represent profit
to the player A while negative elements represent loss to him and vice-versa for
player B.
103
Illustrative Example Let us consider the labour union and management
collective bargaining situation. The union's bargaining position is summarized as
follows :
U1 = 15% wage increase
U2 = 10 days of sick leave with pay.
The position adopted by management is as
follows : Ml -- 10% wage increase
M2 = 5 days of sick leave with pay.
The payoff matrix from union's point of view is:
This is a two-person zero-sum game with two alternative choices of strategies
available to union as well as to management, since the gains of one is taken
exactly equal to losses for the other. In this collective bargaining situation, if
union selects strategy Ul and management selects strategy Ml, then union wins
Rs. 50, i.e. increase in wage.
104
In this game, union's objective is to adopt a strategy which enable them to
gain as much as possible, while management's objective is to adopt a strategy
which enable to lose as little as possible.
5.9 PURE STRATEGIES: GAMES WITH SADDLE POINTS
How to select the optimal strategy for each player without knowledge of the
competitor's strategy is the basic problem of playing a game? Since the payoff
matrix is usually expressed in terms of
the payoff to player A (whose strategies are repressed by the rows), the criterion
calls for A is to select the strategy (pure or mixed) that maximizes his minimum
gains. For this reason, player A is called the maximized. Player B in turn, will act
so as to minimize his maximum losses and is called the minimizer.
The minimum value in each row represents the least gain (payoff)
guaranteed to player A, if he plays his particular strategy. These are indicated in
the matrix by row-minima. Player A will then select the strategy that maximizes
his minimum gains. Player A's selection is called the maximin strategy (or
principle) and his corresponding gain is called the maximin value of the game.
Player B, on the other hand, likes to minimize his losses. The maximum
value in each column represents the maximum losses to player B, if he plays his
particular strategy. These are indicated in the matrix by column maxima. Player B
will then select the strategy that minimizes his maximum losses. Player B's
selection is called the minimax strategy (or principle) and his corresponding loss
is called the minimax value of the game.
If the maximin value equals the minimax value, then the game is said to have
a saddle or equilibrium point and the corresponding strategies are called optimal
strategies. The amount of payoff at an equilibrium point is known as the value of
the game. If may be noted that if player A adopts mutimax criterion, then player B
has to adopt maximin criterion as it is a two-person zero-sum game. A game may
have more than one saddle points. A game with no saddle point is solved by
employing mixed strategies.
105
Example Two companies A and Bare competing for their competitive
product. To improve its market share, company A decides to launch the following
strategies :
A1 = Home delivery
services A2 = Mail order
services
A3 = Free gift for customer
As a countermove, the company B decides to use media advertising to promote
its product :
B1 = Radio
B2 = Magazine
B3 = Newspaper
Past experience and recent studies reveal that the payoff matrix to company A
for any combination of strategies is,
What is the optimal strategy for both the companies and the value of the game ?
Solution Using maximin principle, Company A selects that strategy among Al, AZ
and A3 which can maximize its minimum gains.
The strategy to be chosen will be determined based on the values of row minima,
i.e.,
106
Company A, will chose strategy AZ which yields the maximum payoff of 1, i.e.,
Similarly Company B will adopt that strategy among its strategies Bl, BZ and
B3 wluch can minimize its maximum losses. For this, Company B has to use the
minimax principle, i.e.,
Thus Company B will choose strategy Bl which leads to a minimum loss of 1.
Since the value of maximin coincides with the value of the minimax, an
equilibrium or saddle point is determined in this game. It is apparent that a saddle
point is that point which is both maximum of the row minima and the minimum of
the column maxima. The amount of payoff at an equilibrium point is also known
as value of the game. Hence the optimal pure strategy for both the companies
are : Company A must select strategy AZ and Company B must select strategy
Bt. The value of the game is 1, which indicates that Company A will gain 1 unit
and Company B will lose 1 unit.
107
5.10 MIXED STRATEGIES: GAMES WITHOUT SADDLE POINTS
Pure strategies are available as optimal strategies only for those games which
have a saddle point. For games which do not have a saddle point can be solved
by applying the concept of mixed strategies. A mixed strategy game can be
solved by (i) algebraic method, (ii) analytical or calculus method, (iii) graphical
method, and (iv) linear programming method.
Example Two breakfast food manufacturing firms A and Bare competing for
an increased market share. To improve its market share, both the firms decide to
launch the following strategies:
Al, BI = Give coupons
A2 B3 = Decrease price
A3, B3 = Maintain present strategy
A4, B4 -- Increase advertising
The payoff matrix, shown in the following table describe the increase in market
share for firm A and decrease in market share for firm B.
Determine the optimal strategies for each firm and the value of the game.
Solution First, we apply the maximin (minimax) principle to analyses the game.
(minimax) game result is shown in Table
108
In Table , it may be noted that there is no saddle (equilibrium) point. Thus, firm A
might adopt strategy A4 (Increase Advertising) in order to maximize its minimum
gains and firm B might adopt strategy B4 (Increase Advertising). However, firm B
quickly realised that if firm A selected strategy A4, it could reduce its losses to 10
by adopting to strategy B3 (Maintain Present Strategy). Firm B, would have
initially avoided strategy B3 due to the possibility of firm A selecting strategy A1
(Give Coupons) yielding a loss to firm B of 25 as compare to minimum loss of 5
for strategy B4'
Since in the game, one player makes the first move which is then followed by
the other player and then back to the first player and so on. Thus, the game will
never end and a point of equilibrium can not be reached. The moves adopted by
each firm are shown by the arrows in the Table
It is apparent from Table that for firm A, only strategies A1 and A4 are
relevant and strategies B3 and B1 for firm B. This can be further verified by
reducing the payoff matrix with the rule of dominance. The application of the rule
of dominance is shown in next table .
109
In Table , we see that strategy AZ is dominated by A1 and strategy A3 is
dominated by Ay. Similarly strategy Bl and BZ are dominated by strategy B3 and
By respectively. Hence we can drop out these dominated strategies by enclosing
these in dotted lines as shown in Table The reduced payoff matrix is therefore
shown in Table 10.6.
The Algebraic Method
We shall illustrate this method by solving the game shown in Table 10.6. Since
the payoff matrix has no saddle point, it is desirable for each firm A and B to play
a combination of strategies with certain probabilities.
For Firm A. Let firm A selects strategy A1 with a probability of p and therefore
selects strategy A4 with a probability of (1-p). Suppose that firm B, selects
strategy B3. Then the expected gain to firm A for this game is given by
110
25p + 10(1 - p) = 15p + 10
On the other hand, if firm B selects strategy B4, then firm A's expected gain is
5p + 15(1 - p)= -10p + 15
Now, in order for firm A to be indifferent to which strategy, firm B selects, the
optimal plan for firm A requires that its expected gain to be equal for each of firm
B's possible strategies. Thus equating two equations of expected gains, we get
15y + 10 = -10p + 15
or 25p = 5
or p=1/5=0.2
and q=1-p=1-0.2=0.8
Hence firm A would select strategy At with probability of 0.2 and strategy A4
with a probability of 0.8.
For Firm B. Let firm B selects strategy B3 and B4 with a probability of q and (1 - q)
respectively.
The expected loss to firm B when firm A adopts strategies A1 and A4
respectively are
25q+5(1-q)=20q+5
and 10q + 15(1 - q) = -5q + 15
By equating expected losses of firm B, regardless of what firm A would
choose, we get
20q+5=-5q+15
or 25q = 10
or q = 10/25 = 0.4
and p=1-q=1-0.4=0.6
Hence firm B would select strategy B3 and Bq with a probability of 0.4 and 0.6
respectively. The value of the game is determined by substituting the value of p
or q in any of the expected value and is determined as 13, i.e.
Expected gain to Firm A:
(i) 25x0.2+10 x0.8=13
(ii) 5 x0.2+15x0.8=13
111
Expected loss to Firm B:
(i) 25x0.4+ 5x0.6=13
(ii) 10 x0.4+15x0.6=13
From this expected loss to one firm and gain to another firm, we observe that by
using mixed strategies both firms have improved their market share as compared
to the maximin (minimax) values as shown in Table 10.4. Firm A has increased
its expected gain from 10 to 13 and firm B has decreased its expected loss from
15 to 13.
The Analytical Method
The method is almost similar to the previous method expect instead of equating
the two expected values, the expected value for a given player is maximized. To
illustrate this method let us take the same Example 10.2, discussed in the
previous method.
Suppose firm A selects strategy A1 with a probability p and obviously selects
A4 with a probability (1-p). Similarly, let firm B select strategy B3 with a probability
q, then strategy By with a probability (1 - q).
Firm A's expectation is given by
E(p, q) = 25pq + 10(1 - p)q + 5p(1 - q) + 15(1 - p)(1 - q)
If the expectation is to be maximized, then
The value of the game can be obtained by substituting the value of p, 1 - p, q and
1 - q in the expression of expected value E(p, q). The value of the game is found
to be 13 as before.
The Graphical Method
112
Since the optimal strategies for both the firms (or players) assign non-zero
probabilities to the same number of pure-strategies, thus it is obvious that if one
firm (or player) has only two strategies the other will also use two strategies.
Hence, graphical method is helpful in finding out which of the wo strategies can
be used.
Graphical method is useful if the nature of the game is of the form (2 x n) or (m
x 2). The graphical method consists of two graphs: (i) the payoffs (gains)
available to firm (or player) A versus :!~s strategies options and (ii) the payoffs
(losses) faced by firm (or player) B versus his strategies options.
Consider the following (2 x n) payoff matrix:
it is assumed that the game does not have a saddle point. Player A has two
strategies A1 and A2. He may select A2 with a probability p1 and A2 with a
probability p2 such that p1 + p2 = 1(pl, P? 0). The objective is to determine the
optimal values of p1 and p2. Thus, for each of the pure strategies, B1, B2, ..., Bn
available to player B, the expected payoff for player A would be as follows:
According to the maximin criterion for mixed strategy games. Player A should
select the value of pl and pz so as to maximize his minimum expected payoffs.
This may be done by plotting the straight lines :
113
The lower boundary of these lines will give the minimum expected payoff and the
highest point on this lower boundary will then give the maximum expected payoff
and hence the value of p1 and P2.
We now determine only two strategies of player B corresponding to those
lines which pass through the maximin point. This helps in reducing the size of the
game to 2 x 2 size, which can be solved by any method described earlier.
The (m x 2) games are also treated in the same manner except that minimax
point is the lowest point on the upper boundary of the straight lines.
Example Solve the following game graphically and find the value of the
game.
Solution: The game does not have a saddle point as shown in Table 10.10
114
Player A's expected payoff corresponding to Player B's pure strategies is given
below. Table 10.9'V
These four expected payoff lines can be plotted on the graph to solve the game.
The Graph for Player A
Draw two parallel lines one unit apart and mark a scale on each. These two lines
represent the two strategies available to player A.
Player A determines the expected payoff for each alternative strategy
available to him. If player B selects strategy Bl, player A will gain 70 by selecting
strategy A1 and 10 by selecting strategy AT The value 70 is plotted along the
vertical axis under strategy A1 and the value 10 is plotted along the vertical axis
under strategy Az. A straight line joining the two points is then drawn. This line
represents the maximum possible payoff to player A. Proceeding in the same
manner, we draw another three lines.
We assume that player B will always select the alternative strategies yielding
the worst result to player A. Thus, the payoffs (gains) to A represented by the
lower boundary (shown by thick line in the figure) for any probabilistic value of A1
and AZ between 0 and 1. According to the maximin criterion, player A will always
select a combination of strategies A1 and AZ such that he maximizes his
minimum gains. In this case the optimum solution occurs at the intersection of
the two payoff lines.
The point of optimum solution (i.e. highest or maximin point on the lower
boundary) occurs at the intersection of two lines :
E2 = 25p1 + 60p2 = 25p1 + 60(1 - p1)
115
E3 = 45p1 + 30p2 -- 45p1 + 30(1 - p1)
Figure clearly indicates that Player A's expected payoff depends on which
strategy Player B selects. At the point where the two lines Ez and E3 intersect, the
payoff is the same for the player A no matter which counter strategy player B
uses. We find this unique payoff by setting Ez equals E3 and solving for pl, i.e.
25p1 + 60(1 - pl) = 45p1 + 30(1 - pl)
Therefore Pi = 3/5
and pz = 1 - 3/5 = 2/5
Then, substituting the value of pl in the equation for Ez (or
E3), we have V = 25(3/5) +
60(2/5) = 39
This is the optimal value of the game, when p1= 3/5 and pz= 2/5, for player A.
116
Guided by the minimax principle, player B should also select a pair of
probabilities q2 and q3 for his strategies BZ and B3 such that he will minimize the
maximum expected losses. Thus, if the player A selects strategy Ai, player B's
expected loss is
L2 = 25q2 + 45q2
Similarly, if player A selects strategy A, player B's expected loss is
To solve for qz, equate the two equations, i.e.
25q2 + 45(1 - q2) = 60q2 + 30(1 – q2) q2 = 3/10 1-q2 = 1-3/10=7/10
Therefore and Substituting the value of qz and q3 in the equation for L2 (or L3), we
have V = 25(3/10) + 45(7/10) = 39
This is the optimal value of the game, when q1 = 0, q2 = 3/10, q3 = 7/10 and qy =
0, for player B.
Linear Programming Method
The major advantage of using linear programming technique is to solve mixed-
strategy games or larger dimensions than games of (2 x 2) size. However, in
order to explain the procedure, we shall use linear programming method to solve
the game shown in Table 10.6.
Let us take the following notations :
V = value of the game
p1, p2 = probabilities of selecting strategies A1 and A4
respectively.
q1, q2 = probabilities of selecting strategies B3 and B4
respectively.
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Firm A's objective is to maximize its expected gains which can be achieved
by maximizing the value of the game (V), i.e., it might gain more than V if Firm B
adopts a poor strategy. Hence, the expected gain for Firm A will be as follows :
25p1 + 10p2 > V (for if Firm B adopts strategy B3)
5p1 + 15p2 > V (for if Firm B adopts strategy By)
pl + p2 = 1 (sum of probabilities)
and p1, p2 > 0
Dividing each inequality and equality by V, we get
25p1 / V + 10p2/ V >_ 1
5p11 V + 15P2/ V ?
p1/V + p2/V = 1/V
In order to simplify, we define new variables,
p1/V = xl and P2/ V = x2
The objective of Firm A is to maximize the value of V, which is equivalent to
minimizing 1/V (as V becomes larger the value of 1/V becomes smaller). The
resulting linear programming problem can now be given as
Maximize Z = V or Minimize Z = 1/ V = xl + xz subject to the constraints
25x1 + 10xz ? 1
5x1 + 15x2 ? 1 (10.1) and xl, xz ? 0
Firm B's objective is to minimize its expected losses which can be reduced
by minimizing the value of the game (V) i.e., it might lose less than V if Firm A
adopts a poor strategy. Hence the expected loss for Firm B will be as follows :
25q1 + 5q2 <_ V (for if Firm A adopts strategy Al)
10q1 + 15q2 <_ V (for if Firm A adopts strategy Ay)
ql + q2 = 1 (sum of probabilities)
and ql, q2 > 0
Dividing each inequality and equality by V, we have
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25q1/V + 5q2/V < 1
10q1/ V + 15q2 / V < 1
q1/V + q2lV = 1/V
In order to simplify, we define new variables
q1lV = y1 and q2lV = y2
Since, minimizing of V is equivalent to maximizing 1/ V and yl + y2 = 1/ V, the
resulting linear programming problem can now be given as
Minimize Z = V or Maximize Z = I/ V = y1 + y2
subject to the constraints
25y1 + 5y2 < 1
10y1 + 15y2 < 1 (10.2)
and y1 y2 > 0
It may be noted that (10.1) is the dual of (10.2). Therefore, solution of the
dual problem can be obtained from the optimal simplex table of primal.
To solve the dual of the linear programming problem, introduce slack
variables to convert the two inequalities to equalities. The problem becomes
Maximize = y1 + y2 + Os1 + Os2
subject to the constraints
25y1 + 5y2 + s1 = 1
10y1 + 15y2 + s2 = 1
y1 y2 > 0
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UNIT : 6 Network Techniques
6.1 Introduction : A network (also called network diagram or network technique)
is a symbolic representation of the essential characteristics of a project. PERT
and CPM are the two most widely applied techniques.
(a) Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
It uses event oriented network in which successive events are joined by arrows.
It is preferred for projects that are non-repetitive and in which time for various
activities cannot be precisely pre-determined. There is no significant past
experience to guide; they are once-through projects. Launching a new product
in the market by a company, research and development of a new war weapon,
launching of satellite, sending space craft to Mars are PERT projects. Three
time estimates - the optimistic time estimate, pessimistic time estimate and the
most likely time estimate are associated with each and every activity to take
into account the uncertainty in their times.
(b) Critical Path Method (CPM)
It uses activity oriented network which consists of a number of well recognised
jobs, tasks or activities. Each activity is represented by arrow and the activities
are joined together by events. CPM is generally used for simple, repetitive
types of projects for which the activity times and costs are certainly arid
precisely known. Projects like construction of a building, road, bridge,
physical verification of store, yearly closing of accounts by a company can be
handled by CPM. Thus it is deterministic rather than probabilistic model.
6.2 NETWORK LOGIC (NETWORK OR ARROW DIAGRAM)
Some of the terms commonly used in networks are defined below.
Activity
It is physically identifiable part of a project which requires time and resources
for its execution. An activity is represented by an arrow, the tail of which
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represents the start and the head, the finish of the activity. The length, shape
and direction of the arrow has no relation to the size of the activity.
Event
The beginning and end points of an activity are called events or nodes. Event is
a point in time and does not consume any resources. It is represented by a
circle. The head event, called the jth event, has always a number higher than
the tail event, called the ith event i.e., j > i. For example
Activity
Event Event
Fig. 6.1
Making the pattern of impeller' is an activity. `Start making the pattern of
impeller' is an event. `Pattern making completed' is an event.
Path
An unbroken chain of activity arrows connecting the initial event to some other
event is called a path.
Network
It is the graphical representation of logically and sequentially connected arrows
and nodes representing activities and events of a project. Networks are also
called arrow diagrams.
Network Construction
Firstly the project is split into activities. Start and finish events of the project are
then decided. After deciding the precedence order, the activities are put in a
logical sequence by using the graphical notations. While constructing the
network, in order to ensure that the activities fall in a logical sequence, following
questions are checked:
Network Analysis in Project Planning (PERT and CPM)
(i) What activities must be completed before a particular activity starts ?
(ii) What activities follow this ?
i j
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(iii) What activities must be performed concurrently with this ?
Activities which must be completed before a particular activity starts are called
the predecessor activities and those which must follow a particular activity are
called successor activities.
While drawing the network following points should be kept in mind:
1. Each activity is represented by one and only one arrow. But in some
situations where an activity is further subdivided into segments, each
segment will be represented by a separate arrow.
2. Time flows from left to right. Arrows pointing in opposite direction are to be
avoided.
3. Arrows should be kept straight and not curved.
4. Angles between the arrows should be as large as possible.
5. Arrows should not cross each other. Where crossing cannot be avoided,
bridging should be done as shown in Fig. 14.6.
6. Each activity must have a tail and a head event. No two or more activities
may have the same tail and head events.
7. An event is not complete until all the activities flowing into it are completed.
8. No subsequent activity can begin until its tail event is completed.
9. In a network diagram there should be only one initial event and one end
event.
Dummy
An activity which only determines the dependency of one activity on the other,
but does not consume any time is called a dummy activity. Dummies are
usually represented by dotted line at rows.
To illustrate the use of dummy, refer to Fig. 14.2 (a) and assume that the start
of activity C depends upon the completion of activities A and B and that the
start of activity E depends only on the completion of activity B. For this
situation, figure 14.2 (a) is a faulty representation. This is corrected by
introducing a dummy activity D as shown in Fig. 14.2 (b).
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A dummy activity is introduced in the network for two basic reasons:
1. To maintain the precise logic of the precedence of activities. Such a dummy
is called `logical dummy'. It is shown in Fig. 14.2 (b).
2. To comply with the rule that no two or more activities can have the same tail
and head events. Such a dummy is called `grammatical dummy'. In Fig. 14.2
(c), both activities A and B have the same tail event 10 and same head event
20, which is incorrect since no two activities can have the same pair of tail and
head events. Such activities are called duplicate activities. This difficulty is
resolved by the introduction of a dummy activity in any of the four ways
represented in Fig. 14.2 (d), (e), (n or (g).
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Looping (Cycling)
Sometimes due to faulty network sequence a condition illustrated in figure 14.3,
arises. Here the activities D, E and F form a loop (cycle). Activity D cannot start
until F is completed, which, in turn, depends upon the completion of E. But E is
dependent upon the completion of D. Thus the network cannot proceed. This
situation can be avoided by checking the precedence relationship of the
activities and by numbering them in a logical sequence.
Fig. 14.3
6.3 MERITS AND DEMERITS OF AON DIAGRAMS
The greatest merit of AON diagram is its simplicity. It is easier to draw,
interpret, review and revise. Absence of dummies makes it more readily
understood by non-technical users. However, in spite of simplicity and
other merits of AON diagrams, arrow diagrams continue to enjoy
popularity among the users of network techniques. Perhaps the main
reasons of popularity are their early development and suitability to PERT.
Arrow diagrams became well established before AON diagrams came into
existence. PERT emphasises more on events, which form the nodes of
arrow diagrams and due to this reason arrow diagrams became the basis
of PERT analysis. Secondly, activities on arrows suggest the flow of work
or the progress of the project, while activities on nodes make the network
appear static. Thirdly, the users of arrow diagrams argue that
identification of the activity in numeric form, that is by the tail and head
event numbers (t, j) makes it more suitable for computer programming.
The numeric job description, supplies all the connected dependency
relations. In ease of AON diagram, for every activity, its predecessor as
well as successor activities have to be supplied, which makes the
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computer programming more involved as well as requiring more storage
space in computer memory. However, the merits and demerits of both
diagrams discussed above are only the subjective opinions of its users.
Computer programs for both the systems are available and are being
used. From the application point of view, arrow diagram seems to enjoy
better popularity, basically because of its better suitability to PERT, which
is very popular technique of project management. On the other hand AON
diagram is being increasingly used in construction industry, where CPM is
used for planning, scheduling and controlling the project. Thus it may be
concluded that while arrow diagrams are more common with probabilistic
networks, AON diagrams are more popular with deterministic networks.
6.4 CRITICAL - PATH METHOD
Measure or Activity
Each task or activity takes sometime for its completion. This time duration
depends upon the nature of the activity. Some activities are rarely performed and
no data exists for their time durations. Their time consumption involves a
considerable degree of uncertainty. Such activities are called `variable activities'
and stochastic modelling techniques are applied in their time estimation. Under
this category fall the activities which demand creative ability, such as, research,
design and development work and the activities which are performed under
uncertain environments, such as, construction work during rainy season.
Oil the other hand, there are activities for which the associated time duration can
be accurately estimated. Such activities are said to be deterministic in nature or
deterministic These activities are usually repetitive in nature. Also it is presumed
that (i) skilled persoils experienced in method study are available to do the job (ii)
sufficient additional resources are available to allow uninterrupted activity. Above
all, it is the assumption of confidence that a(i will go well. Figures 14.20 (a) and
(b) show frequency distribution curves for the tkvo types of activities. In Figure
14.20 (a), the dispersion of the curve is more and hence more is the uncertainty.
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In Fig. 14.20 (b), for deterministic type activity, the dispersion is less and the
system fends to be more deterministic.
The projects which comprise of the variable type activities associated with
probabilistic time estimates, employ PERT version of the networks and the
projects comprising of deterministic type of activities are handled by CPM version
of networks.
This is the main difference between the two techniques. The other
difference between the two is that PERT is event-oriented while the CPM is
activity-oriented. In Fig. 14.20 (a) and (b),
Time Units
Any convenient time unit can be used, but it must be consistent throughout
the network. Depending upon the project length and level of detail, time unit
may be working days, shifts or weeks. Full time units are usually used, for
instance activity estimated at 3 days and 6 hours will be assigned 4 days.
Critical Path Analysis
The Critical path of a network gives the shortest time in which the whole
project can be completed. It is the chain of activities with the longest time
durations. These activities are called critical activities. They are critical in
the sense that delay in any of them results in the delay of the completion of
the project. There may be more than one critical path in a network and it is
possible for the critical path to run through a dummy. The critical path
analysis consists of the following steps:
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1. Calculate the time schedule for each activity : It involves the
determination of the time by which an activity must begin and the time
before which it must be completed. The time schedule data for each activity
include the calculation of the earliest start, the earliest finish, the latest
start, the latest finish times and the float.
2. Calculate the time schedule for the completion of the entire project : It
involves the calculation of project completion time.
3. Identify the critical activities and find the critical path : Critical activities
are the ones which must be started and completed on schedule or else the
project may get delayed. The path containing these activities is the critical
path and is the longest path in terms of duration.
Consider the network shown in Fig. 14.21 which consists of the following
activities:
The earliest start time l(E) for an activity represents the time at which an
activity can begin at the earliest. It assumes that all the preceding
activities start and finish at their earliest times. For instance earliest start
times of activities 1-2 and 1-3 are zero each or the earliest occurrence
time of event 1 is zero. Earliest start times of activities 2-3 and 2-5 or the
earliest occurrence time of event 2 is obtained by adding activity time t i2 to
earliest occurrence time of event 1 i.e., it is 0+15=15.
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Next consider event 3. It can be reached directly from event 1 or via event
2, the times for the two sequences being 15 and 15 + 3 = 18. Since event
3 can occur only when all the preceding activities and events have taken
place, its earliest occurrence time or the earliest start times of activities
emanating from even 3 is 18, the higher of the two values 15 and 18. This
is represented by putting E = 18 around its node in the network. Likewise,
the earliest occurrence time of each event can be determined by
proceeding progressively from left to right i.e., following the forward pass
method according to the following rule:
If only one activity converges on an event, its earliest start time E is given
by E of the tail event of the activity plus activity duration. If more than one
activity converges on it, E's via all the paths would be computed and the
highest value chosen and put around the node.
The E's calculated for the problem at hand are shown in the network
diagram.
The latest finish time (L) for an activity represents the latest by which an
activity must be completed in order that the project may not be delayed
beyond its targeted completion time. This is calculated by proceeding
progressively from the end event to the start event. The L for the last event
is assumed to be equal to its E and the L's for the other events are
computed by the following rule (using backward pass method):
If only one activity emanates from an event, compute L by subtracting
activity duration from L of its head event. If more than one activity
emanates from an event, compute L's via all the paths and choose the
smallest and put it around the event at hand.
The L's calculated for the problem at hand are shown in the network
diagram.
Next, the earliest finish time (Tp,p) and the latest start time (T LS) for an
activity are computed:
TEF = E + t ij,
T L S -L- tij
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where tij is the duration for activity i - j. Float (also called total float) for an
activity is then calculated:
F=L-TEF or F=TLS-E.
Float is, thus, the positive difference between the finish times or the
positive difference between the start times. The following analysis table is
then compiled:
TABLE
Start time Finish time Total
Activity (i -j) Duration (D) Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Float
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
1-2 15 0 0 15 15 0
1-3 15 0 3 15 18 3
2-3 3 15 15 18 18 0
2-5 5 15 32 20 37 17
3-4 8 18 18 26 26 0
3-6 12 18 28 30 40 10
4-5 1 26 36
36
27 37 10
4-6 14 26 26 40 40 0
5-6 3 27 37 30 40 10
6-7 14 40 40 54 54 0
Columns 1 and 2 contain the activities and their durations is weeks. Under
column 3 are noted the E's for the tail events and under column 6 are noted the
L's of the head events. Other columns are then computed as follows:
column 4 = column 6-column 2,
column 5 = column 3 + column 2,
and column 7 = column 6-column 5,
= column 4 - column 3.
As an example, consider activity 1-2. Its tail event 1 has E = 0. Put 0 against
this activity under column 3. Its head event 2 has L = 15. Put I S against it
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under column 6. Under column 4 note the value in column 6 minus activity
duration i. e., 15 - 15 = 0. Under column 5 note the value in column 3 plus
activity duration i.e., 0 + I S = 15. Compute total float by subtracting column S
from 6 or column 3 from 4. Total float for activity 1-2 is 0. Similarly, calculate
total float for other activities. Critical path is the path containing activities with
zero float. These activities demand above normal attention with no freedom of
action. For the problem at hand it is 1-2-3-4-6-7 and is shown by double arrows
in Fig. 14.21. The project duration is 54 weeks. Sometimes, there may be more
than one critical path i.e., two or more paths with the same maximum
completion time. Noncritical activities have positive float (slack or leeway) so
that we may slacken while executing them and concentrate on the critical
activities. While delay in any critical activity will delay the project completion,
this may not be so with the non-critical activities.
The Three Floats
Total float : It is the difference between the maximum time available to perform
the activity and the activity duration. The maximum time available for any
activity is from the earliest start time to the latest completion time. Thus for an
activity i - j having duration tii,
Maximum time available = L-E.
Total Float = L - E - tii,
=(L- tii,) -E or L - (E+ tii,)
TLS – E or L- TEF.
Thus the total float of an activity is the difference of its latest start and earliest
start time or the difference of its latest finish and earliest finish times. Total float
represents the maximum time within which an activity can be delayed without
affecting the project completion time.
Free Float : It is that portion of the total float within which an activity can be
manipulate= without affecting the floats of subsequent activities. It is computed
by subtracting the head eve--. slack from the total float. The head event slack is
(L - E) of the event.
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Free float of activity
i - j = T. F. - (L - E) of event j.
Thus free float is the time by which completion of an activity can be delayed
without delaying its immediate successor activities.
Independent Float : It is that portion of the total float within which an activity can
be delayed for start without affecting the floats of preceding activities. It is
computed by subtracting the - event slack from the free float. If the result is
negative, it is taken as zero.
Independent float of activity
i - j = F. F. - (L - E) of tail event i.
Apart from the above three floats, there is another float, namely the interfering
float for the activities.
Interfering Float : Utilization of the float of an activity can affect the floats of n!
subsequent activities in the network. Thus, interfering float can be defined as
that part of the total float which causes a reduction in the floats of the
succeeding activities. In other words it can be defined as the difference
between the latest finish time of the activity under consideration and the
earliest start time of the following activity, or zero, whichever is larger. Thus,
interfering float refers to that portion of the activity float which cannot be
consumed without adversely affecting the floats of the subsequent activities.
It is numerically equal to the difference between the total float and the free
float of the activity. It is also equal to the head erc;u slack of the activity.
Thus interfering float of an a:aisity = T.F. - F.F. -- (L - E) of the head event
of the activity. Suberitical Activity : Activity having next higher float than the
critical activity is called the subcritical activity and demands normal attention but
allows some freedom of action. The path connecting such activities is named as
the .subcritical path. A network may have more than one subcritical path.
Supercritical Activity : An activity having negative float is called supercritical
activity. Such an activity demands very special attention and action. It results
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when activity duration is more than the time available. Such negative float,
though possible, indicates an abnormal situation requiring a decision as to how to
compress the activity. It can be done by employing more resources so as to
make the total float zero or positive. Compression of the network, however,
involves an extra cost.
Slack : It is the time by which occurrence of an event can be delayed. It is
denoted by S and is the difference between the latest occurrence time and
earliest occurrence time of the event.
i. e., S = L - E of the event.
In the above discussion, the term float has been used in connection with the
activities and slack for the events. However, the two terms are being used
interchangeably i.e., slack for the activities and float for the events by some of
the writers.
It is numerically equal to the difference between the total float and the
free float of the activity. It is also equal to the head erent slack of the
activity.
Thus interfering float of an activity= T.F. -F.F. _ (L- E) of the head event of the
activity. Subcritical Activity : Activity having next higher float than the critical
activity is called the subcritic2} activity and demands normal attention but allows
some freedom of action. The path connecting such activities is named as the
subcritical path. A network may have more than one subcritical path.
Supercritical Activity : An activity having negative float is called supercritical
activity. Such an activity demands very special attention and action. It results
when activity duration is more than the time available. Such negative float,
though possible, indicates an abnormal situation requiring a decision as to how to
compress the activity. It can be done by employing more resources so as to
make the total float zero or positive. Compression of the network, however,
involves an extra cost.
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Slack : It is the time by which occurrence of an event can be delayed. It is
denoted by S and is the difference between the latest occurrence time and
earliest occurrence time of the event. i.e., S = L - E of the event.
In the above discussion, the term float has been used in connection with the
activities and slack for the events. However, the two terms are being used
interchangeably i.e., slack for the activities and float for the events by some of
the writers.
EXAMPLE 14.12-1
Tasks A, B, C,..., H, I constitute a project. The precedence relationships
are A<D;A<E;B<F;D<F,W<G;C<H;F<I:G<I.
Draw a network to represent the project and find the minimum time of
completion of the project when time, in days, of each task is as follows:
Task A B C D E F G H I
Time 8 10 8 10 16 17 18 14 9
Also identify the critical path.
Solution
The given precedence order reveals that there are no predecessors to activities
A, B, and C and hence they all start from the initial node. Similarly, there are no
successor activities to activities E, H and I and hence, they all merge into the end
node of the project. The network obtained is shown in Fig. 14.22 (a).
The nodes of the network have been numbered by using the Fulkerson's rule.
The activity descriptions and times are written along the activity arrows. To
determine the minimum project completion time, let event 1 occur at zero time.
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The earliest occurrence time (E) and the latest occurrence time (L) of each
event is then computed.
The E and L values for each event have been written along the nodes in Fig
14.22 (b).
The critical path is now determined by any of the following methods:
Method 1. The network analysis table is compiled as below.
TABLE
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Activity Duration Start
Earliest
time
Latest
Finish
Earliest
time
Latest
Total
float
1-2 8 0 0 8 8 0
1-3 8 0 9. 8 17 9
1-4 10 0 8 10 18 8
2-4 10 8 8 18 18 0
2-6 16 8 28 24 44 20
3-5 18 8 17 26 35 9
3-6 14 8 30 22 44 22
4-5 17 18 18 35 35 0
5-6 9 35 35 44 44 0
Activities 1-2, 2-4, 4-5 and 5-6 having zero float are the critical activities and
1-2-4-5-6 is the critical path.
Method 2. For identifying the critical path, the following conditions are
(i) E = L for the tail event.
(ii) E = L for the head event.
(iii) Ej- Ef = LJ - L; = tij.
Activities 1-2, 2-4, 4-5 and 5-6 satisfy these conditions. Other activities do
not fulfil all the three conditions. The critical path is, therefore, 1-2-4-5-fi.
Method 3. The various paths and their duration are:
Path Duration (days)
1-2-6 24
I-2-4-5-6 44
1-4-5-6 36
1-3-5-6 35
1-3-6 22
Path 1-2-4-5-6, the longest in time involving 44 days, is the critical path.
EXAMPLE A project schedule has the following characteristics:
Activity Time (weeks) Activity Times (weeks)
1-2 4 5-6 4
1-3 1 5-7 8
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2-4 1 6-8 1
3-4 1 7-8 2
3-5 6 8-10 5
4-9 5 9-10 7
(i) Construct the network.
(ii) Compute E and L for each event, and
(iii) Find the critical path.
Solutions
The given data results in a network shown in Fig. 14.23. The figures along
the arrows represent the activity times.
The earliest occurrence time (E) and the latest occurrence time (L) of
each event are now computed by employing forward and backward pass
calculations.
In forward pass computations,
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E values are represented in Fig.
In backward pass communications
137
L values are also represented in Fig. 14.23. Network analysis table is
given below.
TABLE 14.3
Activity Duration
(weeks)
Start
Earliest
time
Latest
Finish
Earliest
time
Latest
Total
float
1-2 4 0 5 4 9 5
1-3 1 0 0 1 1 0
2-4 1 4 9 5 10 5
3-4 1 1 9 2 10 8
3-5 6 1 1 7 7 0
4-9 5 5 10 10 15 5
5-6 4 7 12 11 16 5
5-7 8 7 7 15 15 0
6 - 8 1 11 16 12 17 5
7 - 8 2 15 15 17 17 0
8 - 10 5 17 17 22 22 0
9 - 10 7 10 15 17 22 5
Path 1-3-5-7-8-10 with project duration of 22 weeks is the critical path.
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6.5 PROGRAMME EVALUATION AND REVIEW TECHNIQUE (PERT)
Time Estimates
The CPM system of networks omits the probabilistic considerations and is based on
a Single Time Estimate of the average time required to execute the activity.
[n PERT analysis, time duration of each activity is no longer a single time estimate,
but is a random variable characterised by some probability distribution - usually a 0-
distribution- To estimate the parameters of the (3-distribution (the mean and
variance), the PERT system is based on Three Time Estimates of the
performance time of an activity. They are
(i) The Optimistic Time Estimate: The shortest possible time required for the
completion of an activity, if all goes extremely well. No provisions are made for
delays or setbacks while estimating this time.
(ii) The Pessimistic Time Estimate : The maximum possible time the activity
will take if everything goes bad. However, major catastrophes such as
earthquakes, floods, storms and labour troubles are not taken into account while
estimating this time.
(iii) The Most Likely Time Estimate: The time an activity will take if executed
under normal conditions. It is the medal value.
For determining the single time estimates used in CPM, some historical data may
be available, but the best way of predicting the three time estimates is by
intelligent guessing. The experienced person who may be an engineer, foreman
or worker having sufficient technical competence is asked to guess the various
time estimates. For estimation the activity should be taken randomly, so that the
guess of the assessor is not prejudiced by the predecessor and the successor
activities.
Frequency Distribution Curve for PERT
We have three time estimates for a PERT activity, the optimistic (to), pessimistic
(tp) and the most likely time (tm). In the range from optimistic to pessimistic, there
can be a number of time estimates for the activity. If a frequency distribution
curve for the activity times is plotted,
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it will look like the one shown in figure 14.30. It is assumed to be a (3-distribution
curve with a unimodal point occurring at t,„ and its end points occurring at to and
tP. The most likely time need not be the midpoint of to and tp and hence the
frequency distribution curve may be skewed to the left, skewed to the right or
symmetric.
Though the curve is not fully described by the mean (µ) and the standard
deviation (б), yet in PERT the following relations are approximated for µ and б:
Expected time or average time of an activity is taken equal to mean. This is the
time that the activity is expected to consume while executed. Thus
The expected time is then used as the activity duration and the critical path is
obtained by the analytical method explained earlier.
The variance or standard deviation is used to find the probability of completing
the whole project by a given date. The underlying procedure is as follow:
Compute the variance of all the activity durations of the critical path. Add them
up and take the square root to find the standard deviation of the total project
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duration and denote it by a. Now. while a (3-distribution curve approximately
represents the activity-time frequency distribution, the project expected time
follows approximately a normal distribution curve. The standard normal
distribution curve has an area equal to unity and a standard deviation of one
and is symmetrical about the mean value as shown in Fig. 8.8. ± 3 a give the
limits of the total possible duration with 99 per cent confidence i.e., 99 per cent
of the area under normal distribution curve is within ± 3 c from the mean. In
other words, to find the probability of completing the project in time T, w1-
calculate the standard normal variate,
where Z is the number of standard deviations the scheduled time or target date
lies away from the mean or expected date.
The probability is then read from the standard normal probability distribution
table (tab.. - C.2 at the end of the book) for the value of Z calculated above.
6.6 OBJECTIVES OF NETWORK ANALYSIS
Some of the main objectives of network analysis are:
(i) to complete the project within the stipulated period.
(ii) optimum utilization of the available resources.
(iii) minimization of cost and time required for the completion of the
project.
(iv) minimization of idle resources and investments in inventory.
(v) to identify the bottlenecks, if any, and to focus attention on critical
activities.
(iv) to reduce the set-up and changeover costs.
6.8 ADVANTAGES OF NETWORK TECHNIQUES
1. They are most valuable and powerful for planning, scheduling and control of
operations in large and complex projects.
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2. They are useful tools to evaluate the level of performance by comparing actual
performance against the planned targets.
3. They help to determine the interdependence of various activities for proper
integration and coordination of various operations.
4. They help to evaluate the time-cast trade off and determine the optimum
schedule. 5. These techniques are simple and can be easily oriented towards
computers.
6. The networks clearly designate the responsibilities of different supervisors.
Supervisor of an activity knows his time schedule precisely and also the
supervisors of other activities with whom he has to coordinate. .
7. These techniques help the management in achieving the objective with
minimum of time and least cost and also in predicting the probable project
duration and the associated cost.
8. Applications of PERT and CPM have resulted in saving of time which
directly results in saving of cost. Saving in time or early completion of the
project results in earlier return of revenue and introduction of the product or
process ahead of the competitors, resulting in increased profits.
9. They help to foresee well ahead of actual execution the difficulties and
problems that are likely to crop up during the execution of the project.
10. They also help to minimize the delays and hold-ups during execution.
Corrective action can also be taken well in time.
11. Application of network techniques has resulted in better managerial control,
improved utilisation of resources, improved communication and progress
reporting and better decision-making.
6.9 LIMITATIONS OF NETWORKS
1. Construction of networks for complex projects is complicated and time
consuming due to trial and error approach.
2. Estimation of reliable and accurate duration of various activities is a difficult
exercise.
3. With too many resource constraints the analysis becomes very difficult.
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4. Time-cost trade off procedure, in many situations, is complicated.
6.10 DIFFICULTIES IN USING NETWORK METHODS
Following are some of the problems faced in the managerial use of network
methods :
1. Difficulty in securing the realistic time estimates. [n the case of new and
non-repetitive type projects, the time estimates are often mere guesses.
2. The natural tendency to oppose changes results in the difficulty of
persuading the management to accept these techniques.
3. The planning and implementation of networks require personnel trained in
the network methodology. Managements are reluctant to spare the existing staff
to learn these techniques or to recruit trained personnel.
4. Developing a clear logical network is also troublesome. This depends upon
the data input and thus the plan can be no better than the personnel who
provides the data.
5. Determination of the level of network detail is another troublesome area. The
level of detail varies from planner to planner and depends upon the judgement
and experience.
6.11 COMMENTS ON THE ASSUMPTIONS OF PERT/CPM
1. In PERT analysis p-distribution curve is assumed for expected times of all
the activities. However, actually p-distribution curve may not be applicable to
each and every activity.
2. The formulae for the expected duration and standard deviation are simplified.
In certain cases the errors, due to these simplifications, may even be of the
order of 33%.
3. PERT analysis assumes independence of activities. Limitation of resources
may invalidate the independence of activities.
4. It is not always possible to sort out completely identifiable activities and their
start and finish times.
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5. Time estimates have an element of subjectiveness in them. The whole
analysis, being based on them is, therefore, weak. The analysis can, at best, be
as good as the time estimates.
6. The CPM model has an assumption that the duration of an activity is linearly
and inversely related to the cost of resources consumed for the activity. Cost-
time trade-off relationships are difficult to obtain in many cases either because
data are not available or b-,cause their estimation is too complex and
expensive. A great deal of effort and expertise is required to estimate them.
6.12 APPLICATIONS OF NETWORK TECHNIQUES
Networks provide a comprehensive study of the entire project in terms of
precedence and succession of various activities as well as resources available
to perform them to evolve some better and quicker plan to complete the project.
They can be used for complicated large scale projects involving financial and
administrative problems.
The list containing PERT and CPM applications is very large and the
applications are expanding to many new areas. Following are a few typical
areas in which these techniques are widely accepted:
1. Construction lndastry : It is one of the largest areas in which the network
techniques of project management have found application. These techniques
are used in the construction of buildings, roads, highways, bridges, dams and
irrigation projects.
2. Manufacturing : The design, development and testing of new machines,
installing machines and plant layouts are a few examples of how it can be
applied to the manufacturing function of a firm. It has been used in
manufacturing of ships, aeroplanes, etc.
3. Maintenance planning : R and U has been the most extensive area where
PERT has been used for development of new products, processes and
systems. It has been used in missile development, space programmes,
strategic and tactical military operations. etc.
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4. Administration : Networks have been used by the administration for
streamlining paperwork system, for making major administrative system
revisions, for long range planning and developing staffing plans, etc.
5. Marketing : Networks have been used for advertising programmes, for
development and launching of new products and for planning then- distribution.
6. Inventory planning : Installation of production and inventory control,
acquisition of spare parts, etc. have been greatly helped by network techniques.
7. Other areas of application are preparation of budget and auditing,
installation of computers and large machinery, best traffic flow patterns,
orglnisation of big conferences and public works, advertising and sales
promotion strategies, etc.
6.13 DISTINCTION BETWEEN PERT AND CPM
The PERT and CPVI techniques are similar in terms of their basic structure,
rationale and mode of analysis. However, there are certain distinctions between
PERT and CPM networks which are described below:
1. CPM is activity oriented i.e, CPM network is built on the basis of
activities. Also results of various calculations are considered in terms of
activities of the project. On the other hand, PERT is event oriented. Here,
emphasis is on the completion of a task rather than the activities required to be
performed to reach a particular event or task.
2. CPM is a deterministic model. It does not take into account the
uncertainties involved in the estimation of time for the execution of an activity.
Each activity is assigned a single time based on past experience. PERT,
however, is a probabilistic model. It uses three estimates of the activity time
namely, optimistic, pessimistic and most likely, with a view to take into account
uncertainty in time. Thus expected duration of each activity is probabilistic and
expected duration indicates that there is 50% chance of completing the activity
within that time.
3. CPM places dual emphasis on project time as well as cost and finds the
trade-off between project time and project cost. By employing additional
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resources, it helps to manipulate project duration within certain limits so that
project duration can be reduced at optimum cost. On the other hand, PERT is
primarily concerned with time only. It helps to schedule and coordinate various
activities so that project can be completed in scheduled time.
4. CPM is primarily used for projects which are repetitive in nature and
comparatively small in size. PERT is generally used for projects where time
required to complete the activities is not known a priori. Thus PERT is used for
large, one time research and development type of projects.
6.14 PROBABILITY STATEMENTS Or PROJECT DURATION
As shown previously that a standard deviation and variance for each activity 'time
could be calculated, for the PERT time estimate. The PERT technique makes
use of the central limit theorem of statistics, which states that the s!!m of n
independent activity distributions mill tend to be normally distributed with mean
equal to file sum of activity and variance equal to the sum of activity variance.
This is based upon the assumption that the summation of an expected activity
times and variance along the critical path aggregates to form a normal
distribution of project duration.
Table 15.5 provides the time estimates of the critical path activities of the
previously considered,:
Table 15.5 Time Estimates of Critical Path Activities
The variance and standard deviation are:
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Probability of completing the project on or before a specified time
On the basis of normal distribution, the probability of obtaining any specified date
or directed date(td) can be easily derived. For example, the probability of
completing the project on or before 20 days with standard deviation of 0.66 days
(shown in Table 15.5) can be obtained from the Z-transformation as shown
below:
From the table of standard normal distribution values, the value of Z = -1.51
corresponds 0.0655. Thus the probability of completing the project on time with a
directed date of 20 daps - 6.55%. This is a poor expectation and calls for
replanning.
PERT Algorithm
The various steps involved in developing PERT network for analysing any project
are summarize, below:
Step 1: Prepare a list of all activities involved in the project.
Step 2: Draw a PERT diagram as per the rules discussed earlier for drawing a
network diagram.
Step 3: Number all events in the ascending order from left to right.
Step 4: Estimate the expected performance time of each activity, i.e.,
(i) optimistic (shortest) time (a)
(ii) pessimistic (longest) time
(b) (iii) most likely (model) time
Step 5: Upon the assumption of Beta probability distribution associated with
each activity time, the expected value of the activity time can be approximated by
the linear combination of the three time estimates calculated in step 4:
Estimated average activity time = tc = a+4m+b / 6
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Step 6: Using the expected value of the activity time, determine earliest event
time and latest event time.
Step 7: Determine the slack associated with each activity or event. Determine
the critical path by connecting all these events where slack is zero (i.e., E1 = L).
Step 8: Determine the variance (Vte) of each activity's time by using the following
formula:
Estimated standard deviation of activity time ((Yte) = b – a / 6
Therefore variance (Vte (dte)2 = [(b –a)/ 6]
Step 9: Calculate the probability of completing the project on or before a
specified completion date by using the Z-transformation (standard normal
equation) as shown below:
where Z = number of standard deviations the desired date lies from the mean or
expected time.
Step 10: Establish time-cost trade-off, if the project is running behind the
schedule, resource allocation may have to be performed if resources are limited.
Float of an Activity
The float or slack analysis is useful not only for behind-schedule projects but also
for those that are on or ahead of schedule, since it helps to provide a basis for
effective resource allocation and cost reduction. For example, float analysis of
several projects may alert management to the possibility that by shifting attention
from a program that is ahead of schedule to one that is in trouble, both may be
completed on time without the need of costly overtime.
The value of slack can be either positive, negative or zero depending upon the
relationship between E-values and L-values. Positive slack indicates that the
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project is ahead of the schedule, she greater the slack, the greater the margin of
safety will be, i.e., resources may be reallocated or activity can be delayed by the
time equal to the difference between E and L values, (i.e., L - E). The zero slack,
the project is on schedule, but this situation is usually considered a potential:
problem by the project-managers. If any difficulty arises, the project is likely to fall
behind schedule The negative slack indicates that the project is behind schedule,
i.e., resources are not adequate. Thus a corrective action must be planned for it
immediately, i.e., there is a need to crash the time of critical activities to reduce
the amount of negative float. However, this will increase total coe: of the project.
The basic difference between slack and float times is that slack is used for
events only whereas float is sued for activities.
1. Total Float (or slack): The amount of time by which the completion of an
activity can be delaye4 beyond the earliest expected completion time
without affecting the project duration times is called total float. If
Ei = earliest expected completion time of tail event
= earliest starting time for an activity (i, j)
and Ll = latest allowable completion time of head event
= latest finish time for an activity (i, j)
then the total available time (T) for performing the activity (i, j) is given by
T=Lj –Ei
The necessary time for activity is the required duration time d ii. Thus the activity
time can be increased by an amount given by
F = T-dij = (Lj –Ei)-dij,
or = LSii - ESij = LFij - EFij
This value of F is defined as total float of an activity. If more than this time is
given to the activity it may result in change of the critical path and may increase
the overall project duration.
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2. Free Float (slack): In calculating the total float only a particular activity has
been considered with respect to tail and head event times. But it may be
necessary to find out how much an activity can float (move or flexibility) without
affecting the flexibility of movement of the immediate succeeding activity. The
amount of constrained float is called free float. The terra free indicates that the
delaying the activity will not delay successor activity The free float is given by
Free float = (Ej – Ei) - dij
or Min. (ES for all immediate successors) - EF
3. Independent Float: In some cases, the float of an activity affects neither the
predecessor nor the successor activities. The float is then called independent
float and is given by
Independent float = (Ei - Ld - da
= LFij (for preceding activity)
= ESij (for successor activity)
In other words, independent float provides a measure of variation W starting time
of an activity without affecting, preceding and succeeding activities.
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Unit :7 Inventory Theory
7.1 INTRODUCTION
An inventory may be defined as a stock of idle resources of any kind having a
economic value. These could be in the form of physical resources such as raw
materials, semi-finished goods used in the production process, finished products
ready for delivery to consumers; human resource such as unused labour or
financial resource such as working capital, etc. Service industries are often
unable to inventory their final-products, although they must manage their raw
materials anc supplies inventories just as any other organization. For example,
an airline company may have the seating capacity to provide a transportation
service but lacks the demand necessary to create the end product (final
inventory) of a transportation service. Table 7.1 gives an idea of the types of
inventories maintained by various organizations.
For many organizations inventories represent amounts of tied-up capital
usually 25 to 60 per cent of total assets, depending upon the type of the
organization and the industry. Insufficient inventories hamper production and fail
to generate adequate sales, whereas excessive inventories adversely affect the
firm's cash flow and liquidity position. Moreover one cannot rely purely on
intuitive methods of establishing optimum order quantities and setting up
optimum inventor stock level. Hence, all this calls for a scientific inventory
management so that someone can set policies, establish guidelines for inventory
levels and ensure that appropriate control systems are functioning well.
While inventories must be held to facilitate production activities, it must be
noted that larger inventories do not necessarily lead to high volume of output,
where lack of inventories might hamper production. Inventories cost money to
acquire as well as hold them. The cost of acquisition is reduced as larger
quantities are purchased each time, and the decrease in inventories reduce: the
inventory carrying costs. Thus, the problem is to balance between the advantage
of having inventories (or losses that may be expected from not having adequate
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inventories) and costs c: carrying them to arrive at an optimal level of inventories
to minimize the total inventory cost
Table 7.1
System
Factory Raw materials, parts, semifinished goods, finished goods, etc.
Bank Cash reserves tellers
Hospital Number of beds, specialized personnel, stocks of drugs, etc.
Airline Company Aircraft seat miles per route, parts for engine repairs,
stewardness, mechanics, etc.
Putting it in another words we can state that basic objective of inventory control is
to released capital for more productive use. Inventories should be adequate to
achieve maximum product and sales. At the same time it should not be so
excessive as to restrict the ability of organization to earn high rate of return. The
problem of keeping inventory at the optimal level are of two fold
(i) To forecast the demand precisely at various points of time, and
(ii) To take steps to keep inventory at an optimal level, i.e. to find more
economical method for its management.
Inventory Control Models
Impact on Profitability: The inventory problems considered as a national scale
reveals interesting points. An estimate of the capital locked-up in inventories in
India is Rs. 1000 crores. Even as small saving (sa) 20%), resulting from careful
analysis may represent an impressive saving (Rs. 200 crores) without any
discremental effects on the service level provided by the system. This saving of
Rs. 200 crores indicates how effective inventory control on a national scale would
lead to industrial expansion and more employment opportunities.
7.2 PRINCIPAL CATEGORIES OF INVENTORIES AND THEIR FUNCTIONS
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Since inventories normally represent a sizable investment in a system, therefore
a basic question can be raised with respect to the causes for the existence of
inventories as well as the functions that they perform. In industries, in general,
inventories can be classified in four categories:
1. Process (or pipeline) inventories. This consists of materials actually being
worked on, or moving between work centres or being in transit to distribution
centres and customers, Therefore in order to satisfy demand un-interrupted,
it is necessary to hold extra stock at various points to handle demand while
replenishments are in transit from proceeding stage. The amount of pipe-line
inventories depend on the time required for transportation and the rate of
use.
2. Lot-size (or cycle) inventories. ln many cases, production and material
procurement takes place in batches. This may be because of the following
reasons :
a) Economics of scale. If the average cost of producing, purchasing,
or moving inventory decreases as the lot size increases, then it is
better to start with larger quantities at a time. For example, when a
fixed setup or an administrative cost is incurred whenever an item
has to be produced or ordered from outside vendor. A larger order
quantity results in a reduced fixed cost per unit of item.
b) Technological requirements. The design of the process may
impose certain batch size. For example, in a chemical reactor
processing by thankfuls might be necessary in order to achieve
desired reaction parameters.
3. Seasonal inventories. When the demand of the items vary with time, it
may become economical to build inventory during periods low demand to
ease the strain of peak demand periods upon the production facilities
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(assuming that item(s) are perishable). The extent to which this policy
should be used is determined by balancing the cost of carrying seasonal
inventories against the cost of changing the production rate and not of
meeting demand entirely.
4. Substep (or buffer) stocks. Inventories maybe carried because of
uncertainties of future requirements. Further requirements are estimated
by forecasting, but forecasts are always accompanied by errors. I planning
is done disregarding the possible forecasting errors, shortages may
incurred when materialized requirements exceed the forecast. To prevent
the losses normally associated with shortages, safety stocks have to be
build in the form of extra inventories above the level that would result from
planning on the basis of the demand forecast alone.
Safety stocks can offer protection not only against demand uncertainties but also
whenever the quantities delivered vary from what is ordered, or when
procurement lead times show a probabilistic behaviour, safety stocks are
effective tools W hedging against supply uncertainties.
5. Decoupling inventories. These are those types of inventories used to
reduce the interdependence of various stages of the production system.
The decoupling inventories may be classified into four groups :
(a) Raw materials and component parts. In any organization, bulk of
stores in terms of volume and value will generally be raw materials,
since bulk of raw materials only are processed to finished products
in the same form or in the processed form. Thus raw materials are
used to decuple the producer from suppliers. In other words, raw
material and component parts are useful to provide for
(i) Economic hulk purchasing
(ii) To control production of finished goods
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(iii) To act as a buffer stock against delay in shipment
(iv) Seasonal fluctuations.
(b) Work-in-process inventory. Work-in-process inventory is the semi-
finished stock accumulate in between two operations. It might
merely because of the changes in production cycle time. This is
due to unbalanced loading of machines, holdups, during
manufacturing shortage of tools due to high consumption and
deterioration of machines capability due to long use. The size of the
work in-process inventory is dependent on the production cycle
time, the percentage of machine utilization, and the make or buy
policies of the company. It is used to decouple successive
production stages. In other words, the working process inventory
serves the following purposes:
(i) Enable economical lot production
(ii) Cater to the variety of products
(iii) Replacement for wastages
(iv) Maintain uniform production even though sales may vary.
(c) Finished goods inventory. The finished goads inventory is
maintained to ensure a free flowing supply to the customers, to
allow stabilization of the level of production and to promote sales,
i.e. it is used to decouple the consumer from producer. The size of
the inventory depends on the demand and the ability of the
marketing department to push the product, the company's ability to
stick to the delivery schedule of the customers and the shelf-life of
the product and the warehousing capacity.
(d) Spare parts inventory. A company manufacturing equipment or
appliances derives about 15 to 20 per cent of its sales from the sale
of its spare parts. After sales-service to customer makes it,
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essential for these companies to maintain a stock of spares so that
they are made available when need arises. Similarly a buyer in an
organization is constantly looking to procuring suitable spares to
utilize the equipment fully. Hence, It is essential to have spare parts
inventory and the size of inventory depends on the average life of
the components.
7.3 REASONS FOR CARRYM INVENTORIES
Some of the important reasons for carrying inventories are listed below:
1. Smooth Production. The demand for an item fluctuates widely due to a
number of factors such as seasonality and production schedule. Thus, a
manufacturing firm carries stock of race materials, semi-finished goods and
finished goods because of the following reasons:
(i) To ensure continuous production by ensuring that inputs are always
available and economic production run can be made.
(ii) To facilitate intermittent production of several products on the lime
facility.
(iii) To decouple successive stages in processing a product so that
downtime in one stage does not stop the entire process.
(iv) To help level production activities, stabilize employment, and
improve labour relations by storing human and machine effort.
2. Customer Satisfaction. Inventory of goods are carried in order to :
(i) Ensure an adequate and prompt supply of items to the customer to
avoid the reputation for constantly being out of stock and avoid the
shortage at a minimum cost. It may lose a significant number of
customers permanently.
(ii) Provide service to customers with varying demand and in various
locations by maintaining a adequate supply to meet their immediate
and seasonal needs.
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3. Delayed Deliveries. Inventory of goods are carried in order to provide a
means of hedging against future price and delivery uncertainties, such as
strikes, price increase, high rate of usage, and inflation.
4. Financial Gain.
(i) It makes use of available capital (and/or storage space) in a most
effective way and avoids and unnecessary expenditure on high
inventories, etc.
(ii) It reduces the risk of loss due to the changes in prices of items
stocked at the time of making the stock.
(iii) It provides a means of obtaining economic lot size and gaining
quantity discounts on bulk purchases.
(iv) It eliminates the possibility of duplicating and frequency of ordering
in order to minimize accumulation and build up of surplus stock.
(v) It minimizes the losses due to deterioration, obsolescence, damage
and pilferage.
7.4 STRUCTURE OF INVENTORY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
An inventory system can be defined as a coordinated set of rules and procedures
that allow for routine decisions such as :
(i) When it is necessary to place an order (or set up production) to replenish
inventory?
(ii) How much is to be ordered (or produced) for each replenishment?
The objective of a well-designed procedure should be the minimization of the
costs incurred the inventory system, achieving at the same time the customer
service level specified by the company policies.
In order to arrive at the optimum inventory policy, let us first look at the various
input and output factors of an inventory system as shown in Fig. 12.1.
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Fig. Input-output Factors of an Inventory System
Regardless of items held in stock, an inventory management system can be
viewed as be---E structured of following sub-systems:
1. Accounting for inventories: It concerns with the careful record keeping of
inventory Control namely, delivery lead times source of acquisition, ordering
restrictions, dates of items received or issued; cost of each item, auditing,
control, parties of each transaction and existing stocks.
The periodic valuation of inventories is an essential accounting function that
includes both the verification of records by thorough inspection of all
quantities (i.e. stock on hand and or order; customer order status).
For various practical or financial reasons, accounting methods such as first-in
first- out (FIFO) may be employed, assuming that the oldest inventory (first
in) is the first to be used (first out).
In order to achieve more realistic financial results, many firms are adopting
last-in-first-out (LIFO) accounting method. Here it is assumed that the value
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of an item leaving inventory in its replacement cost and eliminates the
otherwise taxable, 'phantom profits' of a firm during inflationary period.
2. Decision Rules: These are concerned with the management of inventories
involving two fundamental functions namely: (a) Planning (what to store;
where are the best resource for procurement) and (b) Control (when to order
and how much to order). The questions of what and from where are
important from inventory planning aspects, but they are beyond the scope
and this book.
The how much is to order (or produce) for each replenishment is largely a
function of costs and ultimately based upon the concept of economic order
quantity. The when it is necessary to place an order (or set-up production)
question is a function of the organization's forecast scheduled requirements.
The answers to these questions may be given in one of the two ways:
(a) As the level of inventory item drops to a particular level (Reorder
point or level), replenishment may take place at fixed time interval.
The size of an order can vary in order to bring inventory to a
desired level;
(b) Management may order a fixed amount every time when the level
of inventory item drops to a certain reorder level at variable cycle
time.
Moreover, because of the uncertain demand and incorrect forecast,
safety stocks decision rules are needed in order to guarantee some
desired level of customer service.
3. Operating constraints. These constraints bring the decision rules together
with optimal inventory policies. Various items being controlled depending on
their inherent characteristics, limited warehouse space, limited budget
available for inventory; degree of management attention towards various
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items in the inventory, and ser•: ice levels that can be achieved by using
some appropriate stock policy.
4. Systems measure of performance. This is directly related to the total (or
incremental) minimum inventory cost necessary to satisfy forecasted
demand. In the following sections, various types of costs involved in the
analysis of inventory policy will be discussed.
7.5 FACTORS INVOLVED IN INVENTORY ANAIYSIS
Inventory models can be classified largely according to the following factors:
Inventory Related Costs (Economic Parameters)
Four categories of inventory costs are associated with keeping inventories of
items. These are (i) purchase (or production) costs, (ii) ordering (or set-up) costs,
(iii) carrying (or holding) costs, and (iv) shortage (or stock out) costs.
(i) Purchase (or Production) Costs: The cost of purchasing (or producing)
a unit of an item is known as purchase (or production) cost. The
purchase price will become important when quantity discounts or price
breaks can be secured for purchases above a certain quantity or when
economies of scale suggest that the per unit production cost can be
reduced by a larger production runs.
(ii) Ordering or Set-up) Costs: If any item is purchased, an ordering cost is
incurred each time an order is placed. These costs include the
following factors administrative (paper work, telephone calls, postage),
transportation of items ordered, receiving and inspection of goods,
processing payments, etc. If a firm produces its own inventory instead
of purchasing the same from an outside source, then production set-up
costs are analysis to ordering costs.
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(iii) Carrying (or Holding) Costs: The costs associated with holding
inventories in stock are known as holding costs. These are dependent
on the level of inventory held in the stock and the time for which an
item is held in stock.
It consists of all those costs that are incurred due to cost of money
invested in inventory, storage cost, insurance, depreciation, taxes, etc.
This cost may also be expressed as a percentage of average rupee -
value of inventory held rather than some specified rupee carrying cost
her unit held. The variables for the carrying cost portion are as follows:
I = Average amount of inventory held per unit time as a percentage of
average rupee value of inventory.
P = Price (or value) of holding one unit per unit time.
Therefore the total carrying cost may now be expressed as :
Carrying cost = I x P.
(iv) Shortage (or Stock out) Costs: The penalty costs for running out of stock
(i.e., when an item can not be supplied on the customer's demand) are
known as shortage costs.
These costs include the loss of potential profit through sales of items
demanded and loss of goodwill, in terms of permanent loss of customer
and its associated lost profit in future sales.
On the other hand, when customers can wait, the unfilled demand can be
fulfilled when item demanded becomes available. Costs incurred in this
case are costs for extra paper work, possible expediting of orders, etc. But
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if customer is unwilling to wait the profit on the sales as well as the
goodwill is lost.
To minimize shortage penalty costs, additional inventory, called safety
stock or buffer stock is generally carried.
The optimal inventory policy is usually based on, and is determined from,
the above discussed four categories of costs and their relationship to
different inventory levels. Therefore, for any inventory situation, total
inventory cost can be determined from the following relation:
Total inventory cost = Purchase costs of inventory items +
Ordering costs + Carrying costs +
Shortage costs.
Minimizing just one of these three costs, viz. ordering costs, carrying costs
and shortage costs of inventory is easy but of little value. For example, to
minimize carrying cost, a firm can simply stop carrying any inventory. This
action, however, can be expected to create unreasonable shortage of
items or very high ordering costs. The actual process for minimizing total
inventory costs entails two basic decisions - how much to order and when
to order. In fact these are the two decision variables that inventory models
use in optimizing an inventory system.
(v) Salvage Costs (or Selling Price): When the demand for an item is affected
by its quantity in stock, the decision depends upon the underlying criterion
and includes the revenue from sale of the item. Salvage costs are
generally combined with the storage costs and not considered
independently.
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The inventory model showing the relationship of inventory costs with order
quantity and inventory level over time can be illustrated graphically as
shown W Fig. 12.12.
Other characteristics besides costs, which play an important role in the
formulation, solution and performing sensitivity analysis on the inventory
models are as follows:
Fig. Economic Order Quantity Graph
Demand
Customer's demand, that is, size of demand, rate of demand and the patte-rn of
demand for a given item is extremely important in the determination of an optimal
inventory policy
The size of demand is the number of items required per period. It may not be the
number of items sold, as some demand may remain unfilled due to shortage or
delay. It can be either deterministic or probabilistic. In deterministic case the
demand during each time period is known with certainty. This can be fixed
(static) or can vary (dynamic) from time to time. But in the probabilistic case the
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demand for a period of time is not known with certainty but its pattern can be
described by a known probability distribution.
The rate of demand is the size of demand over a particular unit of time. It can be
variable or constant, deterministic or probabilistic, depending on the size of
demand.
The pattern of demand is the manner in which items are drawn from inventory.
Some items may be drawn at the beginning of time period (instantaneously), or
at its end or at a uniform rate during the period. These patterns certainly affect
the total carrying cost o' inventory.
Order Cycle
The time period between placement of two successive orders is referred to as
am order cycle. The order may be placed on the basis of following two types of
inventory review systems:
(a) Continuous Review: The record of the inventory level is checked
continuously until a specified point (called reorder point) is reached where
a new order is placed. This is often referred to as the two-bin system. This
divides the inventory into two parts and places it physically, or on paper, in
two bins. Items are drawn from only one bin, and when it is empty, a new
order is placed. Demand is then satisfied from the second bin until the
order is received. Upon receipt of the order, enough items are placed in
the second bin to make up the earlier total. The remaining items are
placed in the first bin. This procedure is then repeated.
(b) Periodic Review: In this system the inventory levels are reviewed at equal
time intervals and orders are placed at such intervals. The quantity
ordered each time depends on the available inventory level at the time of
review.
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Time Horizon
The period over which the inventory level will be controlled is referred to as time
Horizon. This can be finite or infinite depending on the nature of demand.
Lead Time
The time between ordering a replenishment of an item and actually receiving the
item into inventory is referred to as lead tone. The lead time can be either
deterministic, constant or variable, or probabilistic. If the lead time is zero, then
we have the special case of instantaneous delivery, i.e. no need for placing an
order in advance. If the lead time exists (i.e., it is not zero) and also demand
known, then it is required to place an order in advance by an amount of time
equal to the lead time.
Stock Replenishment
The rate at which items are added to inventory is one of the important
parameters in inventory models. The actual replenishment of items (or stock)
may occur at a uniform rate or instantaneous over time. Usually the uniform
replacement occurs in the case when the item is manufactured within the factory
while instantaneous replacement occurs when the items (or stock) are purchased
from outside sources. ,
Reorder Level
The level between maximum and minimum stock, at which purchasing (or
manufacturing) activities must start for replenishment.
Reorder Quantity
This is the quantity of replacement order. In certain cases it is the economic
order quantity.
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12.4 CLASSIFICATION OF FIXED ORDER QUANTITY INVENTORY
MODELS
Model 1. (b) (Demand Rate Non-uniform, Replenishment Rate Infinite)
In this model all assumptions are same as in model 1 (cr) with the exception
that instead of uniform demand rate R, we are given some total demand D, to
be satisfied during some long time period T. Thus demand rates are different in
different order cycles.
Let q be the fixed quantity ordered each time the order is placed.
D Number of orders. N = -. q
If tt is the time interval between orders t and 2, r, the time interval between
orders 2 and 3
and so on, the total time T will be
166
=t1+t2+...+tn . . .(12.8)
This model is illustrated schematically in figure 12.3.
Fig. Inventory situation for different rates of demand in different
cycles. Holding costs for time period T will be
167
From equations (12.10) and (12.11) we find that results for this model can be
obtained if the uniform demand rate R in model I (a) is replaced by average
demand rate D/T.
Model 1 (c) (Demand Rate Uniform, Replenishment or Production
Rate Finite)
In the classical EOQ model the replenishment rate was assumed to be infinite;
the entire quantity ordered was delivered in a single lot. T ha is possible only for
bought-out items and is simply unthinkable for made-in items. Such items are
produced by the production department of the organisation at a constant rate
and are also supplied to the customers at a constant rate. When the production
starts, a fixed number of units are supposed to be added to inventory each day
till the production run is completed; simultaneously, the items will be demanded
at a constant rate, as stipulated earlier. Obviously. U-..e rate at which they are
produced has to be higher than the consumption rate, for only then can there
be the built-up of inventory.
It is assumed that run sizes are constant and that a new run will be started
whenever inventory is zero. Let
R = number of items required per unit time,
K = number of items produced per unit time,
Ci = cost of holding per item per unit time,
C3 = cost of setting up a production run,
q = number of items produced per run, q = Rt,
t = interval between runs.
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Figure shows the variation of inventory with time.
Fig.Inventory situation with finite rate of production.
Here, each production run of length t consists of two parts t i and r,, where
(i) ti is the time during which the stock is building up at a constant rate of K - R
units pe: unit time,
(ii) t2 is the time during which there is no production (or supply or
replenishment) anc inventory is decreasing at a constant dentand rate R per
unit time.
Model 2 (a) (Demand Rate Uniform, Replenishment Rate Infinite,
Shortages Allowed)
In the earlier models the shortages and hence back ordering was not permitted.
Hence the models involved a trade-off between carrying cost and ordering cost.
However, in actual practice shortages may take place and hence shortage cost
also needs to be considered. Shortages may
also be allowed to derive certain advantages. One advantage of allowing
shortages is to increase the cycle time, and hence spreading the ordering (or
setup) cost over a long period, thereby reducing the total ordering cost over the
planning period. Another advantage is decreased net stock in inventory, resulting
in reduced inventory carrying cost.
This model is just the extension of model 1 (a), allowing shortages. Let
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R = number of items required per unit time i.e., demand rate,
C1 = cost of holding the item per unit time,
C2 = shortage cost per item per unit time,
C3 = ordering cost/order,
q = number of items ordered in one order, q=Rt,
t = interval between orders,
Im = number of items that form inventory at the beginning of time interval t.
Lead time is assumed to be zero. Figure 12.5 shows the variation of inventory
with time.
It is assumed that when shortages occur and customers are not served
immediately, they leave their orders with the supplier and these back orders are
filled as soon as the stock is received, such as point D in the Fig. Out of the total
quantity q received, all shortages equal to an amount S are first taken care and
the remaining quantity Z„, = q - s forms the inventory for the next cycle.
Inventory Level
Fig. Inventory situation for model 2 (a).
Here, the total time period T is divided into n equal time intervals, each of
value t. The time interval t is further divided into two parts t1 and t2.
i. e., t = t1 + t2.
170
where t j is the time interval during which items are drawn from inventory
and tz is the interval during which the items are not filled. Using the
relationship of similar triangles,
9
Now total inventory during time t= area of 40AB = 1 Z [m . ti.
.. Inventory holding cost during time t = 2 Ci Im . ti.
Similarly, total shortage during time t = _area of 48CD = 2 (q- Im) t,
.'. Shortage cost during time t = Z Cz (q- Im) tz, and ordering cost during
time t = C3.
Total cost during time t= 2 C1 Im t, + Z Cz (q- Im) tz -F C3 or total average
cost per unit time,
171
Total average cost per unit time C (Im, q) being a function of two variables
Im and q, has to be partially differentiated w.r.t. im and q separately and
then put equal to zero.
= 0, which gives
The minimum average cost per unit time from equation (12.27) is given by
From equation (12.28) we observe that unless C, is zero, optimum order level
Im is less than the demand q during the time interval t. Therefore, it is
advantageous to plan for shortages.
Model 2 (c) (Demand Rate Uniform, Production Rate Finite, Shortages
Allowed)
This model has the same assumptions as in model 2(a) except that production
rate is finite. Figure 12.6 shows the variation of inventory with time.
Referring to Figure 12.6, we find that inventory is zero in the beginning. It
increases at constant rate (K - R) for time t, until it reaches a level Im. There is
no replenishment during time tz, inventory decreases at constant rate R till it
becomes zero. Shortage starts piling up at constant rate R during time t3 until
this backlog reaches a level s. Lastly, production starts and backlog is filled at a
constant rate K - R during time 14 till the backlog becomes zero. This completes
one cycle; the total time taken during this cycle is
172
Inventory situation for model 2 (c).
t=t1 +t2 + t3 + t4.
This cycle repeats itself over and over again. Now holding cost during 1916
interval t
Now C is a function of six variables I„„ s, t i, tz, ty and 4 but we can derive
relationships which determine the values of Im, t t, ty t3 and tq in terms of only two
variables q and s. An inventory policy is given when we know how much to
produce i.e., q and when to start production, which can be found if s is known.
The manufacturing rate multiplied by the manufacturing time gives the
manufactured quantity.
7.6 THE BASIC DETERMINISTIC INVENTORY MODELS
In this section, we shall consider four different types of inventory models, starting
from the basic economic order quantity model. Other three models will simply
reflect one or more changes in the basic assumptions of the initial model.
The notations used in the development of models are as follows:
Q = Number of units (or quantity) ordered (supplied) per order (units /order)
D = Demand W units (usage) of inventory per year (units/year)
N = Number of orders placed per year TC = Total inventory cost (Rs./year)
Co = Ordering cost per order placed
173
C = Purchase or manufacturing price per unit inventory
Ch = Carrying or holding cost per unit per period of time the inventory is held
(Rs. per unit)
Cs = Shortage cost, per unit of inventory or expressed as a percentage of
average rupee value of inventory (%)
R = Reorder point units
L = Lead time (weeks or months)
t= Reorder cycle (the elapsed time between placement of two successive
orders measured as a fractional part of the standard time period)
rp = Replenishment (or production) rate at which lot size Q is added to
inventory.
In the development of these models, we are assuming a standard time horizon of
one year (which is more common in actual practice) but depending on the
requirement of a particular situation this period could be different, say a month, a
week or even a day.
Model I : Economic Order Quantity Model with Uniform Demand
As inventory is used to cover actual demand and there is a need for
replenishment, it is important to decide on how much to order at a time, it is
desirable to order in quantities that will balance he costs of holding too much
stock against that of ordering in small quantities too frequently. This order
quantity is called an Economic Order Quantity.
The objective of the study of this model is to determine an optimum order
quantity (EOQ) such fiat the total inventory cost is minimized. We illustrate this
model after making the following assumptions:
1. Demand
D = demand rate is constant and known throughout the reorder
cycle time.
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2. Replenishment
r = replenishment (or production) rate is instantaneous, i.e. the entire
order quantity Q is received at one time as soon as the order is
released
L = lead time is constant and zero
C = purchase price or cost per unit is constant, i.e. quantity discounts are
not allowed
3. Costs
Ch, Co = unit costs of carrying inventory and ordering are known
and constant
Cs = shortage is not allowed
4. Decision variables
Q = order quantity (replenishment size)
The behaviour of inventory at hand with respect to time is illustrated graphically
in figure. The downward sloping line in the figure shows that the level of inventory
is reducing a t a uniform and known rate over time. Since the demand is uniform
and known exactly and supply is instantaneous, the reorder point is that when
the inventory level falls to zero.
Fluctuation W inventory levels for a given item over time reflects 'the repetitive
cycles of depletion and replenishment as shown in the Fig. 12.3. Since actual
amount invested in inventory varies constantly, this can be simplified by using the
concept of average inventory.
With a constant rate of demand, average inventory is simply the arithmetic mean
of maximum and minimum levels of inventory, i.e.
Maximum level + Minimum Level Average inventory = 2
175
Fig. EOO Model with Uniform Demand;
Now find the optimum level of Q so that total inventory cost is minimized.
The inventory costs are determined as follows:
1. Ordering cost = Total annual demand/Quantity ordered each time x Co
= D/Q x Co
2. Carrying cost = Average units in inventory x Carrying cost per unit
= Q/2 x Ch
The total variable inventory cost then, is the sum of these two costs:
TC = D/Q Co + Q/2 Ch
A generalized graph of the ordering cost, carrying cost and total cost is shown in
Fig. 12.2. From this graph, we can see that the ordering cost, which varies with
the inverse of the order quantity generates a downward sloping hyperbola, and
carrying cost, which varies directly with the order quantity, can be represented by
an upward sloping line. The total cost is minimum at a point where ordering costs
equal carrying costs. Thus, economic order quantity occurs at a point where:
Ordering cost = Carrying cost
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Thus optimal Q* (EOQ) is derived to be
This expression is widely known as the wilson lot size formula. Characteristics
of Model I
1. Optimum number of orders placed per year
2. Optimum length of time between orders (duration of supply)
3. Minimum total yearly inventory cost
Remarks
177
1. If the carrying cost is given as a percentage of average value of inventory
held, then total annual carrying cost may be expressed as
Ch= I x P
The total annual inventory cost then becomes
Thus optimal Q* (EOQ) will be
2. The general formula for optimal order quantity Q* can also be obtained by
using calculus (concept of maxima & minima). The method is illustrated below:
Differentiating TC with respect to Q, we have
Equating d(TC)/dQ equal to zero so as to find out the optimum value of Q,
because the value of second derivative of TC with respect to Q is positive, we get
Model II: Economic Order Quantity with Different Rates of Demands in
Different Cycles
178
In this model all those assumptions which were used to derive the economic
order quantity in model I are valid except that the demand rate is different in'
different cycle. The total demand D is specified as demand during time horizon T.
Thus the inventory costs are as follows:
Ordering cost = D/ Q C0
Carrying costs = Q/2 ChT
The total inventory cost is the sum of above two costs:
TC = D/C C0 + Q/2 ChT
For calculating Q*, equating ordering costs and carrying costs we get
D/ Q C0 = Q/2 ChT
Thus optimal Q* (EOQ) is derived to be
The minimum total yearly inventory cost is
Limitations of EOQ Model
Several types of assumptions made in the derivation of EOQ model formula have
been a subject of persistent controversy. Following are the limitations of the EOQ
model :
1. Demand is assumed to be known with certainty and uniform. However, in
actual practice the demand is neither known with certainty nor uniform.
Therefore, when the fluctuations are more, then the model loses its validity.
2. Ordering is not linearly related to number of orders. As the number of orders
increases, the ordering cost rises in stepped manner.
3. Ordering cost may not be independent of the order quantity.
4. Instantaneous supply of inventory when inventory level touches zero is not
possible.
5. The formula is not applicable when inventory cost is meaningless as in the
case of departmental stores from main warehouse to sub-stores.
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6. It is very laborious to calculate inventory carrying cost for B and C class of
items.
Example 12.1 Novelty Ltd. carries a wide assortment of items for its
customers. One item, Gaylook, is very popular. Desirous of keeping its inventory
under control, a decision is taken to order only the optimal economic quantity, for
this item, each time. You have the following information. Make your
recommendations:
Annual demand : 1,60,000 units
Price per unit : Rs. 20
Carrying cost : Re. 1 per unit or 5 per cent per rupee of
inventory value
Cost per order : Rs. 50
Determine the optimal economic quantity by developing the following table:
Size of order
No. of orders 1 10 20 40 80 100
Average inventory
Carrying costs
Order costs
Total costs
Solution Total cost associated with the six different order sizes is calculated as
shown in Table 12.2.
Orders
per Year Lost Size
Average .
Inventory.
Carrying
Cost (Re. 1)
Ordering Cost
(Rs. 50 per order)
Total Cost
per Year
1 1,60,000 80,000 80,000 50 80,050
10 16,000 8,000 8,000 500 8,500 20 5,000 4,000 4,000 1,000 5,000 40 4,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 4,000 SO 2,000 1,000 1,000 4,000 5,000 100 1,600 800
.
800 5,000 5,800
180
Since the total cost per year is minimum when number of orders in a year are 40,
therefore the economic order quantity is 4,000 units.
181
7.7 THE EOO MODELS WITH PRICE (OR QUANTITY) DISCOUNTS
In the previous EOQ models, the price per unit of the item held in the inventory
was constant regardless of the amount ordered, i.e., this cost was independent of
the order size Q. However, there are many situations in which the order size Q
should be influenced by the fact that a lower per unit price may be offered (price
discount) by the suppliers to encourage large orders from their customers. In
such cases it is desirable to ensure whether the savings in purchase cost due to
price discount(s) for large orders combined with a decrease in ordering costs are
sufficient to balance the additional carrying costs due to increased average
inventory.
Such discounts help (i) suppliers in moving more inventory forward in the
distribution channel and lowering carrying costs if buyers purchase in large
quantities and (ii) buyers in trading off lowered purchasing and ordering cost with
higher carrying costs.
If we were to ignore the price discount factor then Q* = 2DCo /Ch . However if
price discount is available then total cost per unit of the inventory system and
items would be
where C1 represents the per unit cost of the items stocked at price break points
and ordinarily C1 > C2 > C3, . . .. From there it is apparent that we do not wish to
order less than Q* because both costs (cost of inventory system and cost of
items) would be higher. However, if we were to order more than Q, it is possible
that the increase in the inventory system cost would be more than compensated
for by the savings in the cost of items. If, it was desirable to increase the order
size to obtain the price-break then the increase should be enough to get the
lower price; anything more would incur unnecessary high inventory costs.
In summary the method of determining optimal order quantity is as follows :
1. Determine the EOQ (Q*) on the basis of the non-discounted original price
2. Determine optimal cost at this EOQ (Q*) point
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3. Calculate total cost for quantity discount EOQ (D*) points
4. Compare the total cost at EOQ (Q*) with non-discounted price with that for
quantity discount EOQ (D*) at higher volumes. Select either EOQ (Q*) or
EOQ (D*) with the lowest cost.
Quantity Discounts
Example 12.11 A factory requires 1500 units of an item per month, each costing
Rs. 27. The cost per order is Rs. 150 and the inventory carrying charges work
out to 20% of the average inventory. Find out the economic order quantity and
the number of orders per year.
Would you accept a 2% price discount on a minimum supply quantity of 1200
units? Compare the total costs in both the cases.
Solution : From the data of the problem, we have
Annual demand (D) = 1500 x 12 = 18,000 units
Purchase cost (C) = Rs. 27 per item
Ordering cost (Ca) = Rs. 150 per order
Carrying cost (Ch) = C x I = 27 x 0.20 = Rs. 5.40
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UNIT : 8 Queuing Theory
WAITING LINE OR QUEUING THEORY
8.1 Introduction. In everyday life there is u flow of customers to., avail some service
facility at some service station
n: The rate of flow depends on the nature of the service and the servicing capacity of the
station. In many situations there is a congestion of items arriving for service because an
item cannot be serviced immediately on arrival and each new arrival has to wait for some
time before it is attended. This situation occurs where the total number of customers
requiring service exceeds the number of facilities. A group of customers/items waiting at
some place to receive attention/service. including those receiving the service, is known as
queue.
Similarly softie service facility waits for arrival of customers when the total capacity of
system is more than the number of customers. Thus, in the absence of a perfect balance
between the service facility and the customers, waiting is required either by the service
facility or- by the customer. The imbalance between the customers and service facility;
known as congestion, cannot be eliminated completely but efforts/techniques can be
evolved to reduce the magnitude of congestion or wating time of a new arrival in the
system.
A resonably long waiting line may result in loss of customers to the organisation.
The method of reducing congestion by the expansion of servicing counter may result in
an increase in adle time of the service station and may become uneconomical for the
organisation. Thus both the situations namely of unreasonably long queue or expansion
of servicing counters are uneconomical to individual or managers of the system. The
arrival pattern and servicing time of the units in the system are influenced by a number of
factors and can never be controlled or assessed in advance. The waiting line phenomenon
is the direct result of randomness in the operation of service facilities. The customers
184
arrival or his service time are not known in advance, for otherwise the operation of the
facility cannot be scheduled so as to eliminate waiting completely. Hence the problem of
waiting line is quite complicated and requires careful study. For this, some sort of
equilibrium between the costs associated with waiting and costs of preventing waiting is
to be evolved by determining the optimal service time and arrival rate of the units in the
system.
In this chapter we shall try to develop a mathematical theory to study the problem. Here
we shall try to find expected waiting time for a particular arrival and the time it shall take
for servicing in a given situation (by calculating probability of customer's entering the
system and the probability of their servicing times). The theory can help us in making
predictions about the behaviour of . the system in terms of its service, estimation of
possible congestion and methods to eliminate them. The following are some of the
instances where we generally come across waiting line problem.
(i) Check-out stations and 'personnel determination. It can determine the desired
number of check-out stations and personnel needed in super markets and
departmental stores to ensure smooth and economic operations at different times
of the day.
(ii) Aeroplane departure analysis using queuing theory enables airlines to schedule
the departures of their planes with respect to the schedules of competitor airlines.
(iii) Machine breakdown and repairs analysis determines the number - of repair
personnel required to handle the breakdown with minimum overall costs. Here the
broken machine is considered as customer needing service of a repairman.
(iv) The theory can also be applied to the staffing; of clerical operations. Letters
arriving at typists desk, the letters are the customers and the typist the server:
(v) Queuing theory has significant impact on the design of inventory and production
control systems.
(vi) In dock yards the dock costs and demurrage costs can be quite large and one
should find optimum number of docks which minimises these two costs.
185
(vii) In many cases the workers are assigned different volume of tasks e.g. one worker
may be required to operate one machine where ,as other operates two machines at
a time. The basic salary of the two workers may be same but bonus as incentive
may be given on the basis of extra production. It is observed that variation in
down time due to repairs of machines the worker operating with two machines
would have to operate at a greater level of efficiency to earn the same amount of
bonus. Queuing theory can be applied to decide waage incentive schemes.
(viii) Queuing situations commonly experienced are
(a) In banks; cafeterias. (b) Jobs waiting for processing by a computer. (c)
Employees waiting for promotion (d) Cars waiting for traffic lights to turn green
(e) Doctor's office, hospitals (f) Barber's shop (g) Telephone booths, or calls
arriving at a telephone switch board (h) Booking offices, Post offices etc. (i)
Students depositing fees at various counters, book stores, libraries (j)
Automobile's repair shop, petrol pumps etc.
It is evident from the above illustrations, that if service capacity is not sufficient [o cope
with the demand then waiting line is generated in the system and unless some remedial
measure is introduced, it is likely to grow with time. Similarly, if the service facility is
more than the demand rate then the idle time for the service facility is likely to increase.
Both these situations are not in the interest of the customer as well as the organisation.
Naturally, the organisation providing the service facility would like to find that what
should be the level of waiting time of an arrival in the system at which it is worthwhile to
install extra/additional capacity in the system. Alternately, the management may allow
the arrivals to wait for extra time and risk the losses than to face the situation of idle
capacity. All these situations need exhaustive analysis and study by some analytical tools.
8.2 Historical Development. The telephone industry is responsible for queuing theory.
Theoretical research into the properties of queues first of all started in the problem of
telephone calls by a Sweedisn engineer Mr. A.K. Erlang in 1903. The theory was further
developed by Molllns in 1927 and then by Thornton D. Fry. A systematic approach to the
problem was made by Mr. D.G. Kendall in 1951 by using -model terminology and since
186
then significant work has been done in this direction. Now queueing theory has been
applied to wide variety of operations. The basic feature of all these operations is that the
sequence of units amviing at the service stations are eventually discharged after service.
8.3 Queuing Process/System. Basically, a queuing process is centred around a service
system (facility).
All queuing situations involve the arrival of customers (input) at a service facility, where
some time may be spent in waiting and then receiving he desired service. The customers
arriving for service may or may not enter he system. Thus, the input pattern in the system
depends on the nature of he system as well as the behaviour of the customer. The
combination of these two determines the arrival pattern. After the service is completed
the customer leaves the service system (output). The departure pattern mainly fepends on
the service discipline. There can he many types of qneung systems depending on the
nature of inputs, service mechanism and customer characteristics.
Components of a Queuing System:
187
Input implies the mode of arrival of customers at the service facility. The number of
customers emanate from finite, or infinite sources. Typically customers arrive at the
system randomly singly or in batches. The input process is characterised by the nature of
the a.-rivals, capacity of the system and the behaviour of the customers.
(A) The size of customers arriving for servicing depends on the nature of the
population which can be finite or infinite. From practical view point a population
is considered to be finite, if the probability of an arrival is greatly changed when
one member of the population is already receiving service.
The periods between the arrival of individual customers may be constant or
scattered in some fashion. Most queuing models assume that the same inter-
arrival time distribution applies for all customers thoughout the period of study.
The most convenient way is to designate some random variables corresponding to
the times between arrivals. In general the arrivals follow a Poisson' distribution
when the total number of arrivals during any given time interval is independent of
the number of arrivals that have already occured prior to the beginning of time
Interval.
188
(B) In many systems the capacity of the space where the arrivals have to wait before
taken into service is limited. In such cases when the length of waiting line crosses
a certain limit, no further units/arrivals are permitted to enter the system till some
waiting space becomes vacant. Such queue systems are known as systems with
finite capacity and considerably affects the arrival pattern of the system e.g. a
doctor may give appointment to fixed number of patients each day.
(C) The human behaviour and the facilities of servicing in any system are important
factors for the development of queuing problem. The behaviour of the customer,
mainly his impatience may affect the nature of the system. Customer's behaviour
can be classified in following categories.
(i) Balking. A customer may not like to join the queue seing it very long and
he may not like to wait.
(ii) Reneging. He may leave the queue due to impatience after joining i[.
(iii) Collusion. Several customers may collaborate and only one of them may
stand in the queue.
(iv) Jockeying. If there are number of queue; then one may leave one queue to
join another.
2. Service Facility/Mechanism. This means the arrangement of server's facility to
serve the arriving customer. Service time in waiting line problems is also a
statistical variable and can be studied either as the number of services completed
in a given period of time or alternately the completion time of a service. Service
mechanism of any system is mainly determined by:
189
A : Service Facility Design : The facilities at the service station can be divided in two
main categories (i) Single channel and (ii) Multi-channel facilities.
(i) Single channel Queues : There may be only one counter for servicing and
as such only one unit can be served at a time. The next unit can be taken
into service when the servicing operations on the previous unit are
completed. The single channel queue can be divided in two types :
(a) Single phase (b) Multi-Phase.
In a single phase queue, the whole service operations are completed in one
stage fig (6-2A)
(a) Single channel single phase queue
(b) Single channel multi-phase queue : Here the unit taken for service
has to pass through many stages before the unit goes out of the servicing
channel. All the phases of service are arranged in a ordered sequence (see
Fig. 6.2 B).
Single channel-k-Phases arranged in series.
(ii) Multi channel. Due to rush of customers, management may decide to provide a
number of service counters so that queue length may not become unreasonably large and
the organisation may not loose customers'
due to long queue. But loo many counters may result in long idle time of counters due to
shortage of customers.
(a) Multi channel queue discipline with single phase :
190
(b) A mixed arrangement of servicing facilities arranged in parallal and series can be
termed as multi-channel multi-phase queue discipline. Here the servicing of any
unit taken into service is completed into a number of stages arranged in series.
See Fig. (6-2 D) e.g. several ticket counters in a cinema may send all customers to
one ticket collector and vice-versa.
B. Queue/Service Discipline : Queue Discipline identifies the order in which
arrivals in the system are taken into service. The Queue discipline does not always
take into account the order of arrivals. Various methods are available to solve
queuing problems under different queuing disciplines but most of these introduces
complications in the analysis. The most common discipline is First In First Out
(FIFO) or First come First Served (FCFS) discipline. Here the customers are
serviced strictly in the order of their joining the system e.g. queues at booking
stations.
The Last Come First Served (LCFS) or Last in First Out (LIFO) System is one
where the item arriving last are first to go into service e.g. in big stores the items
arriving last are issued first. Similarly in elevators passenger entering last may stand
near the gate and thus may leave first.
Service In Random Order (SIRO) rule implies that arrivals are taken into service
randomly, irrespective of the order of their arrivals in the system. Here the server
chooses one of the customers to offer service at random. e.g. in a government office
processing of papers often takes place in an indiscriminate order. These disciplines
are useful in allocation of an item whose demand is high and supply is low viz
allotting the shares to applicants by a company. Sometimes SIRO is the only
alternative to assign service as it may not be possible to identify the order of
arrivals:
191
Priority Disciplines are those where any arrival is chosen for service ahead of some
other customers already in queue. In the case of 'Pre-emptive' priority the preference
to any arriving unit is so high that the unit already in service ,is renowned/displaced
to take it into service: A non-pre-emptive rule of priority is one where an arrival
with low priority is given preference for service than a high priority item.
8.4 Classification of Queues and their problems.
The mathematical description of a Queue can be formulated by means of a model
expressed as A/B/S : (d/,f ) where
A : Arrival pattern of the units, given by the probability distribution of inter-
arrival time of units.
B : The probability distribution of servicing time of individuals being actually
served.
S: The number of servicing channels in the system.
D: Capacity of the system i.e. the maximum number of units the system can
accommodate at any time.
F: The manner/order in which the arriving units are taken into service i.e.
FIFO/LIFO/SIRO/Priority.
8.5 The various queuing problems are related with
(i) Queue length. Number of persons in the-system at any time. We may be
interested in studying the distribution of queue length.
(ii) Waiting time. It is the time upto which an unit has to wait before it is taken
into service after arriving at the servicing station. This is studied with the
help of waiting time distribution.
The waiting time depends on
(a) the number of units already there in the system,
(b) the number of servicing stations in the system,
(c) the schedule in which units are selected for service.
192
(iii) Servicing time. It is the time taken for servicing a particular arrival.
(iv) Average length of tine. The number of customers in the queue per unit of
time.
(v) Average idle -time. The average time for which the system remains idle.
Notations.
X : The inter-arrivai time between two successive customers (arrivals).
Y : The service time required for any customer.
w : The wailing time for any customer before it is taken into service.
V : Time spent by a customer in the system.
n : Number of customers in the system i.e. in the waiting line at any
time, including the number of customers being Serviced.
Pn (t) : Probability that n Customers arrive in the system in time
0n (t) : Probability that n units are serviced in time t.
U (T) : Probability distribution of inter -arrival time P (t < T).
V (T) ; Probability distribution of servicing time P (t < T).
F (N) : Probability distribution of queue length a[ any time.
P (N < n)
En : Denotes same state of the system at a time when there are n units in
the system.
λn : average number of customers arriving per unit of time when there
are already n 'units in the system.
λ : average number of customers arriving 'per unit of time.
μn : average number of customers being served per unit of time when
there are already n units in the system.
μ : average number of Customers being served per unit of time.
(λ/ μ) = p : is known as traffic intensity.
Steady, Transient and Explosive states in a Queue system. The study of waiting
line depends on the distribution of arrivals and the distribution of customer's service
times. It is observed that under fixed conditions of customer arrivals and servicing
193
facility a queue length is a function of time. As such a queue system can be considered
some sort of random experiment and the various events of the experiment can be taken
to be the various changes occurring in the system at any time.
In the case of arrivals in a queue system three states of nature are possible, namely, the
steady state, transient state, and the explosive state. A short description of these states is
given below :
(i) Steady State. If the average rate of arrival is less than the average rate of
service, and both are constant, the system will eventually settle down into steady state
and becomes independent of the initial state of the queue. Then the probability of
finding a particular length of queue at any time will be same. The size of queue will
fluctuate in the steady state but the statistical behaviour of the queue remains steady.
A necessary condition for the steady state to be reached is that the elapsed time since
the start of the operation becomes sufficiently large i.e. ( t æ ) , but this condition is
not sufficient as the existence of steady state also depends upon the behaviour of the
system e.g. if rate of arrival is greater than the rate of service then a steady state cannot
be reached. Here we assume that the system acquires a steady state as t æ i.e. the
number of arrivals during a certain interval becomes independent of time
Hence in the steady state system, the probability distributions of arrivals, waiting time,
and servicing time does not depend on time.
(ii) Transient State. A system is said to be in "Transient state'. when its operating
characteristics are dependent on time. Usually a system is in transient state during the
early stages of its operation when the behaviour of the system is dependent on the
initial state of queue. When, the probability distribution of arrivals, waiting time and
servicing time are dependent on time the system is said to be in Transient State.
(iii) Explosive State. Here u5e waiting line increases indefinitely with time e.g. arrivals
in a restaurant during rush hours.
In this chapter, it is assumed that the system has attained a steady
194
state.
Distribution of Arrivals and Service times in Queuing System. W- can see that
under fixed conditions of customer arrivals and servicing facility a queue length is a
function of time. A queue is some sort of random experiment and the probability
models for arrival and service times must be accurately ascertained before the
properties of the queue for a given system are studied. Most elementary Queue models
assume that the inputs and outputs follow special type of process known as Birth and
Death process. In this section we shall study some well known distributions of arrival
and service times.
Poisson Process. It is applied to a system where the changes are independent of time i.e.
the factors which affect the changes remain absolutely unchanged and the probability of
occurrence of any event at any time is independent of time. An infinite sequence of
independent events occurring at an instant of time form a Poison Process, if the
following conditions are satisfied :
(i) The total number of events in any time interval X does not depend on the events
which has occurred before the beginning of the period i.e. the number of arrivals in
non-overlapping interval are statistically independent and the process has independent
and identically distributed increments.
(ii) The probability of an event occurring in a small time interval At is X At + 0
(At)2 where A is some constant and 0 (At)
2 means some function of At of order
>_ 2, i.e. If (A1) I < K.as At---) 0 for any constant K {~t)
(iii) Two or more units cannot arrive or serviced at the same time i.e. the probability
of the occurrence of more than one event in the interval t and t + At is of the order 0
(At) which is negligible.
Distribution of Arrivals. Here we explain the concept by considering one
probability distribution for time between successive arrivals, known as exponential
distribution. The distribution of arrivals in a queuing system can be considered as a
195
Pure Birth Process. The term birth refers to the arrival of new calling units in the
system. Here the objective is to study the number of customers that enter the system i.e.
only arrivals are counted and no- departure takes place. Such process is known as pure
birth process, e.g. in an office, the computer operator waits until at least five records
accumulate before feeding the information to the computer.
Mathematically, our objective is to derive an expression for the probability Pn (t) of n
arrivals during the time interval (0, t), assuming that system started its operation at time
t = 0 i.e. number of arrivals in time interval (0, t) is taken to be a random variable
following a Poisson Distribution with parameter ?.t.
How to recognise a Poisson Distribution validity for a given -situation ?
In Queuing theory studies Poisson Probability distribution plays an important role.
One can ascertain the validity of Poisson distribution by analysing the arrivals and
departures using the following procedure :
I. If the queuing situation is already in existence then observe it for while
to identify the random/non-random pattern of successive arrival;. If the arrivals are
random, there is a good chance that the process may follow a Poisson distribution.
lI. Gather observations about the number of arrivals by recording the number
of customers arriving during appropriate time intervals. After collecting sufficient
amount of data compute its mean and variance. If these are approximately equal
then the distribution of arrival is Poisson.
The probability distribution of the arrival pattern can also be s tudied and identified
through analysis of past data. It is also known as the Poisson input i.e. when the
arrival pattern of customers in the system follows a Poisson Process.
Theorem. To show that under the three conditions of' a Poisson Process the number
of arrivals in a fixed time full the Poisson law i.e. if die probability of an arrival in
time interval t and t + then
196
Proof. Let us consider the consecutive time intervals (0, t,) and (t, t + t),
l-hcn in t:rc interval (t, t + At), n arrivals can uLkc place in following three
mutu~!Iv exclusive ways :
(i) there are n arrivals in the interval (t + t t) and no arrival in the interval (t + t t)
It is assumed that the number of arrivals in non-overlapping interval are statistically
independent i.e. total number of events in any time interval X does not depend on
the events which has occurred before the beginning of the period.
8.6 SINGLE-CHANNEL QUEUING THEORY
A single-channel queuing problem results from random interarrival time and
random service time at a single service station. The random arrival time can be
described mathematically by a probability distribution. The most common
distribution found in queuing problems is Poisson distribution. This is used in
single-channel queuing problems for random arrivals where the service time is
exponentially distributed. The sections ahead give the reader an insight into the
true nature of operations research the difficulties of developing OR models, the
need for logical assumptions and the utilization of higher mathematics.
Models for Arrival and Service Times
Generally, arrivals do not occur at fixed regular intervals of times but tend to be
clustered or scattered in some fashion. A Poisson distribution is a discrete
probability distribution which predicts the number of arrivals in a given time. The
Poisson distribution involves the probability _i occurrence of an arrival. Poisson
assumption is quite restrictive in some cases. It assumes that arrivals are
random and independent of all other operating conditions. The mean arrival rate
(i.e., -e number of arrivals per unit of time) )L is assumed to be constant over time
197
and is independent :f the number of units already serviced, queue length or any
other random property of the queue.
Since the mean arrival rate is constant over time, it follows that the probability of
an arrival between time t and t + dt is λ dt.
Thus probability of an arrival in time dt = λ dt. (10.1)
The following characteristics of Poisson distribution are written here without proof
Probability of n arrivals in time
Probability density function of inter-arrival time (time interval between two
consecutive arrivals)
,..(10.3)
Finally, Poisson distribution assumes that the time period dt is very small so that
(dt)2, (dt)3 etc. 0 and can be ignored.
Service time is the time required for completion of a service i.e., it is the time
interval between beginning of a service and its completion. The mean service
rate is the number of customers served per unit of time (assuming the service to
be continuous througout the entire time =it), while the average service time 1/μ is
the time required to serve one customer. Tile most common type of distribution
used for service times is exponential distribution. It involves the probability of
completion of a service. It should be noted that Poisson distribution cannot be
applied to servicing because of the possibility of the service facility remaining idle
for some time. Poisson distribution assumes fixed time interval of continuous
servicing, which can never be assured in all services.
Mean service rate p is also assumed to be constant over time and independent
of number of units already serviced, queue length or any other random property
of the system. Thus probability that a service is completed between t and t + dt,
provided that the service is continuous
= μdt.
198
Under the condition of continuous service, the following characteristics of
exponential distribution are written, without proof :
Probability of n complete services in time
Probability density function (p.d.f) of interservice time, i.e., time between two
consecutive services = ...(10.5) Probability that a customer shall be serviced in more than time t = e"~`. ...(10.6)
Model I. Single-Channel Poisson Arrivals with Exponential
Service, Infinite Population Model [(M/M/I) :
Let us consider a single-channel system with Poisson arrivals and
exponential service time distribution. Both the arrivals and service rates are
independent of the number of customers in the waiting line. Arrivals are
handled on `first come, first served' basis. Also the arrival rate 7,, is less
than the service rate p.
The following mathematical notation (symbols) will be used in connection
with queuing models:
n = number of customers in the system (waiting line + service facility) at time
λ = mean arrival rate (number of arrivals per unit of time).
μ =mean service rate per busy server (number of customers served per unit
of time).
λdt = probability that an arrival enters the system between t and t + dt time
interval i.e., within time interval dt.
1 - λdt = probability that no arrival enters the system within interval dt plus higher
order terms in dt.
μ = mean service rate per channel.
μ dt = probability of one service completion between t and t + dt time interval i. e.,
within time interval dt.
1 - μ.dt=probability of no service rendered during the interval dt plus higher order
terms in dt.
pn = steady state probability of exactly n customers in the system.
199
pn (t) = transient state probability of exactly n customers in the system at time t,
assuming the system started its operation at time zero.
pn+1 (t) = transient state probability of having n + 1 customers in the system at
time t.
pn-1 (t) = transient state probability of having n - 1 customers in the system at
time t.
pn (t + dt) = probability of having n customers in the system at time t + dt.
Lq = expected (average) number of customers in the queue.
Ls = expected number of customers in the system (waiting + being served).
Wq = expected waiting time per customer in the queue (expected time a
customer keeps waiting in line).
Ws = expected time a customer spends in the system. (in waiting + being served)
Ln = expected number of customers waiting in line excluding those times when
the line is empty i.e., expected number in non-empty queue (expected number of
customers in a queue that is formed from time to time).
Wn = expected time a customer waits in line if he has to wait at all i.e., expected
time in the queue for non-empty queue.
To determine the properties of the single-channel system, it is necessary to find
an expression for the probability of n customers in the system at time t i.e., pn (t),
for, if pn (t) is known, the expected number of customers in the system and hence
the other characteristics can be calculated. In place of finding an expression for
pn (t), we shall first find the expression for Pn (t + dt).
The probability of n units (customers) in the system at time t + dt can be
determined by summing up probabilities of all the ways this event could occur.
The event can occur in four mutually exclusive and exhaustive ways:
TABLE
Event No, of units No. of arrivals No. of
services
No. of units
at time t in time dt in time dt at time t + dt
1 n 0 0 n
2- n+l 0 1 n
200
3 n-I 1 0 n
4 n 1 1 n
Now we compute the probability of occurrence of each of the events,
remembering that the probability of a service or arrival is μdt or λdt and (dt)2 - 0.
:. Probability of event 1 = Probability of having n units at time t
x Probability of no arrivals
x Probability of no services
Note that other events are not possible because of the small value of dt that
causes (dt)2 to approach zero (as in event 4).
Since one and only one of the above events can happen, we can obtain pn(t +
dt) [where n > 0} by adding the probabilities of above four events.
Taking the limit when at ---> 0, we get the following differential equation which
gives the relationship between p„, p„-i, p„+ at any time t, mean arrival rate ),.
and mean service rate u :
201
After solving for pn(t + dt) where n > 0, it is necessary to solve for pn (t + dt)
where n = 0 i.e. to solve for po (t + dt). If n -- 0, only two mutually exclusive
and exhaustive events can occur as shown in table 10.2.
202
TABLE
Event No. of units No. of arrivals No. of services No. of units
at time t in time at in time at at time t + at
1 0 0 - 0
2 1 0 1 0
Note that if no units were in the system, the probability of no service would be
1. Probability of having no unit in the system at time t+dt is given by summing
up the probabilities of above two events.
When dt - 0, the differential equation which indicates the relationship between
probabilities pt, and p, at any time t, mean arrival rate λ and mean service rate
μ is
Equations (10.7) and (10.8) provide relationships involving the probability density
function pn(t) for all values of n but still we do not know the value of pn(t).
Assuming the steady state condition for the system, when the probability of
having n units (customers) in the system becomes independent of time, we get
Pn(t) =Pm d IPn(t)I = 0.
203
Therefore, for a steady state system the differential equations (10.7) and (10.8)
reduce to difference equations (10.9) and (10.10) :
Similarly, for n = 2, equation (10.9) gives
Equation (10.11) gives p. in terms of po, λ and μ. Finally, an expression for po in
terms of λ and μ must be obtained. The easiest way to do this is to recognize
that the probability that the channel is busy is the ratio of the arrival rate and
service rate, λ / μ . Thus po is 1 minus this ratio.
204
Having known the value of pn, we can find the various operating characteristics
of the system.
1. Expected number of units in the system (waiting + being served), L, is obtained
by using the definition of an expected value:
205
An Explanatory Note on the Queuing Formulae
1. Traffic intensity. The ratio λ / μ is called the traffic intensity or the
utilisation factor and it determines the degree to which the capacity of the
service station is utilised (expected fraction of time the service facility is
busy). For instance, if customers arrive at the rate of 9 per hour and the
service rate is 10 per hour, the utilisation of the service facility is 9/10 =
90%.
2. Average length o f the queue = λ / μ . λ / μ – λ
Consider that a statistician observes the queue at a service facility after
every one hour and that the length of the queue for, say, six observations is
as follows:
Observation No. Queue Service,fdciliy Length of queue
1 None None 0
2 ** * 2
3 None * 0
4 ***** * 5
5 ** * 2
6 *** * 3
Thus the average queue length = 2.
3. Average number of units in the system = λ / μ – λ
For the above situation, this average
(0+0)+(2+1)+(0+1)+(5+1)+(2+1)+(3+1) = 17
6 6
4. Average length of non-empty queue = λ / μ – λ
This will be calculated from observation no. 2, 4, 5 and 6, since during
observations 1 and 3 the queue was empty, though during observation 3
there was a unit being served. For the above situation, then this average
206
2+5+2+3 = 3
4
5. Average waiting time of an arrival = λ / μ – λ
At times when there are no units in the system, the arriving unit will not
have to wait. However, when there are units already in the system, the
arriving unit will have to wait. Let the waiting times of, say, 8 units observed
be
= 10, 8, 3, 0, 5, 9, 0, 6 minutes.
Then the average waiting time = 10+8+3+0+5+9+0+6 = 41
8 = 8 5.125 minutes.
6. Average waiting time of an arrival who waits = 1/μ – λ
In the above situation, ignoring the observations when the waiting time is
zero, this average
= 41/6 = 6.83 minutes.
7. Average time an arrival spends in the system = 1 / μ – λ.
Here, along with the waiting times, the service times must also be given.
Then this average
Total (waiting time + service time) minutes
8
8.7 Assumptions and Limitations of Queuing Model
The various results of section 10.9.2 have been derived under the following
simplifying assumptions :
1. The customers arrive for service at a single service facility at random
according to Poisson distribution with mean arrival rate )v or equivalently,
the inter-arrival times follow exponential distribution.
2. The service time has exponential distribution with mean service rate p..
3. The service discipline followed is first come, first served.
207
4. Customer behaviour is normal i.e., customers desiring servicejoin the
queue, wait for their turn and leave only after getting serviced; they do not
resort to balking, reneging or jockeying.
5. Service facility behaviour is normal. It serves the customers
continuously, without break, as long as there is queue. Also it serves only
one customer at a time.
6. The waiting space available for customers in the queue is infinite. 7. The
calling source (population) has infinite size.
8. The elapsed time since the start of the queue is sufficiently long so
that the system has attained a steady state or stable state.
9. The mean arrival rate 7v is less than the mean service rate p..
However, in most of the actual business situations the above assumptions
are hardly satisfied. The various limitations in a queuing model are :
1. The waiting space for the customers is usually limited.
2. The arrival rate may be state dependent. An arriving customer, on
seeing a long queue, may not joint it and go away without getting service.
3. The arrival process may not be stationary. There may be peak period and
slack period during which the arrival rate may be more or less than the average
arrival rate.
4. The population of customers may not be infinite and the queuing discipline
may not be first come, first served.
5. Services may not be rendered continuously. The service facility may
breakdown; also the service may be provided in batches rather than
individually.
6. The queuing system may not have reached the steady state. It may be,
instead, in transient state. It is commonly so when the queue just starts and the
elapsed time is not sufficient.
208
EXAMPLE
A self-service store employs one cashier at its counter. Nine customers arrive
on an average every S minutes while the cashier can serve 10 customers in 5
minutes. Assuming Poisson distribution for arrival rate and exponential
distribution for service time, find
1. Average number of customers in the system.
2. Average number of customers in the queue or average queue length. 3.
Average time a customer spends in the system.
4. Average time a customer waits before being served.
[P.T U. B.E., 2001; Karn. U. B.E. (Mech.) 1998, 95]
Solution
209
EXERCISES
1. In a machine shop there are two identical machines. Products arrive for
machining at the average rate of 4 products per hour. The average
machining time is 24 minutes per product. The production manager
complains of loss of production time and sugests the installation of a third
machine. What is the average waiting time per product under the present
circumstances 7 What is it likely to be if a third machine is installed '?
Assume Poisson pattern of arrival and exponentially distributed service
times.
2. In a machine shop there are 10 identical machines. These machines are
subjected to periodical breakdowns and require the service of a maintenance
department. Each machine breaks down in a Poisson pattern. The time
required to put a machine back into production line is exponentially
distributed. Formulate a queuing model to determine the following :
(i) Average down time of the machines (Ws).
(ii) Probability that all the machines are in working order (po).
8.9 MULTI-CHANNEL QUEUING THEORY MODEL VI :
Multi-channel queuing theory treats the condition in which there are several
service stations in parallel and each customer in the waiting line can be
served by more than one station. Each service facility is prepared to deliver
the same type of service. The new arrival selects one station without any
external pressure. When a waiting line is formed, a single line usually breaks
down into shorter lines in front of each service station. The arrival rate 1, and
service rate it are mean values from Poisson distribution and exponential
distribution respectively. Service discipline is first come, first served and
customers are taken from a single queue i.e., any empty channel is filled by
the next customer in line.
Let n = number of customers in the system,
210
pn = probability of n customers in the system,
c = number of parallel service channels (c > 1),
λ = arrival rate of customers,
μ = service rate of individual channel.
When n < c, there is no queue because all arrivals are being serviced, and
the rate of servicing will be n μ as only n channels are busy, each at the rate
of pt. When n = c, all channels will be working and when n > c, there will be
(n - c) customers in the queue and rate of service will be cu as all the c
channels are busy. There will be three cases in this system. To determine
the properties of multi-channel system, it is necessary to find an expression
for the probability of n customers in the system at time t i.e., p„(t).
Case I (When n = O) :
Let us first find po (t + dt). This event can occur only in two exclusive and
exhaustive ways:
211
End Chapter Quizzes
Chapter 1—Introduction
MULTIPLE CHOICE
1. The field of management science
a. concentrates on the use of quantitative methods to assist in decision making.
b. approaches decision making rationally, with techniques based on the scientific method.
c. is another name for decision science and for operations research.
d. each of the above is true.
ANS: D
2. Identification and definition of a problem
a. cannot be done until alternatives are proposed.
b. is the first step of decision making.
c. is the final step of problem solving.
d. requires consideration of multiple criteria.
ANS: B
3. Decision alternatives
a. should be identified before decision criteria are established.
b. are limited to quantitative solutions
c. are evaluated as a part of the problem definition stage.
d. are best generated by brain-storming.
ANS: A
4. Decision criteria
a. are the choices faced by the decision maker.
b. are the problems faced by the decision maker.
c. are the ways to evaluate the choices faced by the decision maker.
d. must be unique for a problem.
ANS: C
5. The quantitative analysis approach requires
a. the manager's prior experience with a similar problem.
b. a relatively uncomplicated problem.
c. mathematical expressions for the relationships.
d. each of the above is true.
ANS: C
6. A physical model that does not have the same physical appearance as the object being modeled is
a. an analog model.
b. an iconic model.
c. a mathematical model.
d. a qualitative model.
212
ANS: A
7. .Management science and operations research both involve
a. qualitative managerial skills.
b. quantitative approaches to decision making.
c. operational management skills.
d. scientific research as opposed to applications.
ANS: B
8. George Dantzig is important in the history of management science because he developed
a. the scientific management revolution.
b. World War II operations research teams.
c. the simplex method for linear programming.
d. powerful digital computers.
ANS: C
9. The first step in problem solving is
a. determination of the correct analytical solution procedure.
b. definition of decision variables.
c. the identification of a difference between the actual and desired state of affairs.
d. implementation.
ANS: C
10. Problem definition
a. includes specific objectives and operating constraints.
b. must occur prior to the quantitative analysis process.
c. must involve the analyst and the user of the results.
d. each of the above is true.
ANS: D
213
Chapter 2—An Introduction to Linear Programming
MULTIPLE CHOICE
1. The maximization or minimization of a quantity is the
a. goal of management science.
b. decision for decision analysis.
c. constraint of operations research.
d. objective of linear programming.
ANS: D
2. A solution that satisfies all the constraints of a linear programming problem except the nonnegativity
constraints is called
a. optimal.
b. feasible.
c. infeasible.
d. semi-feasible.
Ans : C
3. Decision variables
a. tell how much or how many of something to produce, invest, purchase, hire, etc.
b. represent the values of the constraints.
c. measure the objective function.
d. must exist for each constraint.
ANS: A
4. Which of the following is a valid objective function for a linear programming problem?
a. Max 5xy
b. Min 4x + 3y + (2/3)z
c. Max 5x2 + 6y
2
d. Min (x1 + x2)/x3
ANS: B
5. Which of the following statements is NOT true?
a. A feasible solution satisfies all constraints.
b. An optimal solution satisfies all constraints.
c. An infeasible solution violates all constraints.
d. A feasible solution point does not have to lie on the boundary of the feasible region.
ANS: C
6. Slack
a. is the difference between the left and right sides of a constraint.
b. is the amount by which the left side of a constraint is smaller than the right side.
c. is the amount by which the left side of a constraint is larger than the right side.
d. exists for each variable in a linear programming problem.
ANS: B PTS: 1 TOP: Slack variables
7. To find the optimal solution to a linear programming problem using the graphical method
a. find the feasible point that is the farthest away from the origin.
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b. find the feasible point that is at the highest location.
c. find the feasible point that is closest to the origin.
d. None of the alternatives is correct.
ANS: D PTS: 1 TOP: Extreme points
8. Which of the following special cases does not require reformulation of the problem in order to
obtain a solution?
a. alternate optimality
b. infeasibility
c. unboundedness
d. each case requires a reformulation.
ANS: A
9. The improvement in the value of the objective function per unit increase in a right-hand side is
the
a. sensitivity value.
b. dual price.
c. constraint coefficient.
d. slack value.
ANS: B
10. As long as the slope of the objective function stays between the slopes of the binding constraints
a. the value of the objective function won't change.
b. there will be alternative optimal solutions.
c. the values of the dual variables won't change.
d. there will be no slack in the solution.
ANS: C
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Chapter 3— MULTIPLE CHOICE
1.
1. The optimal solution is found in an assignment matrix when the minimum number of straight
lines needed to cover all the zeros equals
a. (the number of agents) 1.
b. (the number of agents).
c. (the number of agents) + 1.
d. (the number of agents) + (the number of tasks).
ANS: B
2. The stepping-stone method requires that one or more artificially occupied cells with a flow of
zero be created in the transportation tableau when the number of occupied cells is fewer than
a. m + n 2
b. m + n 1
c. m + n
d. m + n + 1
ANS: B
3. The per-unit change in the objective function associated with assigning flow to an unused arc in
the transportation simplex method is called the
a. net evaluation index.
b. degenerate value.
c. opportunity loss.
d. simplex multiplier.
ANS: A
4. The difference between the transportation and assignment problems is that
a. total supply must equal total demand in the transportation problem
b. the number of origins must equal the number of destinations in the transportation problem
c. each supply and demand value is 1 in the assignment problem
d. there are many differences between the transportation and assignment problems
ANS: C
5. Using the transportation simplex method, the optimal solution to the transportation
problem has been found when
a. there is a shipment in every cell.
b. more than one stepping-stone path is available.
c. there is a tie for outgoing cell.
d. the net evaluation index for each unoccupied cell is 0.
ANS: D
1 TOP: Transportation simplex method
6. To use the transportation simplex method, a transportation problem that is unbalanced requires
the use of
a. artificial variables.
b. one or more transshipment nodes.
c. a dummy origin or destination.
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d. matrix reduction.
ANS: C PTS: 1 TOP: Transportation simplex method
TRUE/FALSE
7. The transportation simplex method can be used to solve the assignment problem.
ANS: T
8. The transportation simplex method is limited to minimization problems.
ANS: F
9. When an assignment problem involves an unacceptable assignment, a dummy agent or task must
be introduced.
ANS: F
10. In assignment problems, dummy agents or tasks are created when the number of agents and tasks
is not equal.
ANS: T
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Chapter 4
MULTIPLE CHOICE
1. The options from which a decision maker chooses a course of action are
a. called the decision alternatives.
b. under the control of the decision maker.
c. not the same as the states of nature.
d. All of the alternatives are true.
ANS: D
2. A payoff
a. is always measured in profit.
b. is always measured in cost.
c. exists for each pair of decision alternative and state of nature.
d. exists for each state of nature.
ANS: C
3. Making a good decision
a. requires probabilities for all states of nature.
b. requires a clear understanding of decision alternatives, states of nature, and payoffs.
c. implies that a desirable outcome will occur.
d. All of the alternatives are true.
ANS: B
4. A decision tree
a. presents all decision alternatives first and follows them with all states of nature.
b. presents all states of nature first and follows them with all decision alternatives.
c. alternates the decision alternatives and states of nature.
d. arranges decision alternatives and states of nature in their natural chronological order.
ANS: D
5. For a maximization problem, the conservative approach is often referred to as the
a. minimax approach
b. maximin approach
c. maximax approach
d. minimin approach
ANS: B TRUE/FALSE
6. Sample information with an efficiency rating of 100% is perfect information.
ANS: T
7. Decision alternatives are structured so that several could occur simultaneously.
ANS: F
8 .Risk analysis helps the decision maker recognize the difference between the expected value of a
decision alternative and the payoff that may actually occur.
ANS: T
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9. The expected value of an alternative can never be negative.
ANS: F
10. A decision strategy is a sequence of decisions and chance outcomes, where the decisions
chosen depend on the yet to be determined outcomes of chance events.
ANS: T
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Chapter 5— MULTIPLE CHOICE
1. The problem which deals with the distribution of goods from several sources to several
destinations is the
a. maximal flow problem
b. transportation problem
c. assignment problem
d. shortest-route problem
ANS: B
2. The parts of a network that represent the origins are
a. the capacities
b. the flows
c. the nodes
d. the arcs
ANS: C
3. The objective of the transportation problem is to
a. identify one origin that can satisfy total demand at the destinations and at the same time
minimize total shipping cost.
b. minimize the number of origins used to satisfy total demand at the destinations.
c. minimize the number of shipments necessary to satisfy total demand at the destinations.
d. minimize the cost of shipping products from several origins to several destinations.
ANS: D
4. PERT and CPM
a. are most valuable when a small number of activities must be scheduled.
b. have different features and are not applied to the same situation.
c. do not require a chronological relationship among activities.
d. have been combined to develop a procedure that uses the best of each.
ANS: D
5. The critical path
a. is any path that goes from the starting node to the completion node.
b. is a combination of all paths.
c. is the shortest path.
d. is the longest path.
ANS: D
TRUE/FALSE
6.. Whenever total supply is less than total demand in a transportation problem, the LP model does
not determine how the unsatisfied demand is handled.
ANS: T
7. Converting a transportation problem LP from cost minimization to profit maximization requires
only changing the objective function; the conversion does not affect the constraints.
ANS: T
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8. If a transportation problem has four origins and five destinations, the LP formulation of the
problem will have nine constraints.
ANS: T
9. The capacitated transportation problem includes constraints which reflect limited capacity on a
route.
ANS: T
10. The shortest-route problem is a special case of the transshipment problem.
ANS: T
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Chapter 6—
MULTIPLE CHOICE
1. Inventory
a. is held against uncertain usage so that a supply of items is available if needed.
b. constitutes a small part of the cost of doing business.
c. is not something that can be managed effectively.
d. All of the alternatives are correct.
ANS: A
2. Inventory models in which the rate of demand is constant are called
a. fixed models.
b. deterministic models.
c. JIT models.
d. requirements models.
ANS: B
3. The EOQ model
a. determines only how frequently to order.
b. considers total cost.
c. minimizes both ordering and holding costs.
d. All of the alternatives are correct.
ANS: B
4.. For inventory systems with constant demand and a fixed lead time,
a. the reorder point = lead-time demand.
b. the reorder point > lead-time demand.
c. the reorder point < lead-time demand.
d. the reorder point is unrelated to lead-time demand.
ANS: A
5.. Safety stock
a. can be determined by the EOQ formula.
b. depends on the inventory position.
c. depends on the variability of demand during lead time.
d. is not needed if Q* is the actual order quantity.
ANS: C
TRUE/FALSE
6. To be considered as inventory, goods must be finished and waiting for delivery.
ANS: F PTS: 1 TOP: Introduction
7. When demand is independent, it is not related to demand for other components or items produced
by the firm.
ANS: T PTS: 1 TOP: Introduction
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8. Constant demand is a key assumption of the EOQ model.
ANS: T PTS: 1 TOP: EOQ model
9. In the EOQ model, the average inventory per cycle over many cycles is Q/2.
ANS: T PTS: 1 TOP: EOQ model
10. The single-period inventory model is most applicable to items that are perishable or have seasonal
demand.
ANS: T PTS: 1 TOP: When-to-order decision
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Chapter -7
MULTIPLE CHOICE
1. Decision makers in queuing situations attempt to balance
a. operating characteristics against the arrival rate.
b. service levels against service cost.
c. the number of units in the system against the time in the system.
d. the service rate against the arrival rate.
ANS: B
2. Performance measures dealing with the number of units in line and the time spent waiting are
called
a. queuing facts.
b. performance queues.
c. system measures.
d. operating characteristics.
ANS: D
3. Operating characteristics formulas for the single-channel queue do NOT require
a. .
b. Poisson distribution of arrivals.
c. an exponential distribution of service times.
d. an FCFS queue discipline.
ANS: A
4. The total cost for a waiting line does NOT specifically depend on
a. the cost of waiting.
b. the cost of service.
c. the number of units in the system.
d. the cost of a lost customer.
ANS: D
5. The arrival rate in queuing formulas is expressed as
a. the mean time between arrivals.
b. the minimum number of arrivals per time period.
c. the mean number of arrivals per channel.
d. the mean number of arrivals per time period.
ANS: D
13. What queue discipline is assumed by the waiting line models presented in the textbook?
a. first-come first-served.
b. last-in first-out.
c. shortest processing time first.
d. No discipline is assumed.
ANS: A PTS: 1 TOP: Queue discipline
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TRUE/FALSE
6. A waiting line situation where every customer waits in the same line before being served by the
same server is called a single server waiting line.
ANS: F
7. Queue discipline refers to the assumption that a customer has the patience to remain in a slow
moving queue.
ANS: F
8. Before waiting lines can be analyzed economically, the arrivals' cost of waiting must be
estimated.
ANS: T
9. In a multiple channel system it is more efficient to have a separate waiting line for each channel.
ANS: F
10. If some maximum number of customers is allowed in a queuing system at one time, the system
has a finite calling population.
ANS: F
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Reference
1. Introduction to operation research : Hillier /Lieberman
2. Schaum’s outline of operation research : Richard Bronson
3. Operation research by B.S Goel and S.K. Mittal by Pragati Prakashan