Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Defense Overview
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Transcript of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Defense Overview
Open Source Intelligence (OSINT):
Defense Overview26 August 2009 Version 3.1
STAFF BRIEF (18 Slides)
As Created by Robert Steele
Defense Intelligence Old & NewCold War-Service-Centric• Mission is Big War Only• Limited Hard Targets• Conventional Forces• DoD Rules & Runs Alone• Service-Centric• Intelligence Marginalized• Comms Internal, Secret• Unconstrained Funding• Acquisition Inept & Wasteful• Unilateral Militarism
New War-Mission Centric• Mission is War in All Its Forms• Everything is a “Target”• Unconventional Forces• Whole of Government Matters• Mission Centric• Intelligence Matters More• Comms Must be Universal• Government Bankrupt for Now• Acquisition Must Shine• Multinational Multifunctional
HUM
INT
SIGINT
GEO-IM
INT
MASIN
T
IO
OSIN
T Discipline
OSINT Support (Producers)
OSINT Service (Consumers)
Whole of Government Waging Peace & CommerceIncludes Decision-Support to All AO’s & Congress
Global Law Enforcement & Regulation
Global Operations Other Than War (OOTW)
Global War Both General & In the Shadows
Agriculture, Diplomacy, Econom
y, Energy, Health, Society, W
ater
Family, Health, Justice, Im
migration
Stabilization & Reconstruction, Hum
anitarianAssistance, Disaster Relief, Sm
all Wars
All Information in All Languages All the
Time All Hum
ans, All Minds, All the Tim
e
Shared Raw Information in NRT
M4IS2Hub
Direct Support TO OSINT Discipline
OSINT Provides Greatest Satisfaction of EEI at Lowest CostUSG Lacks A Central Repository for All-Source InformationWhat We CAN Afford is a Central Repository for All OSINT
TransformationInnovationSweetspot
MASINT
IMINTSIGINTSTATE
HUMINT*
OSINT
0%
50%
50%Less Costly
More SatisfyingDo Not Exist
* CIA HUMINT Only. Source : CIA Collection Requirements & Evaluation Staff, 1996
Global Information Grid Meets RealityUniverse of Information
Neighborhood GranularitySecret Discovery
$65B/Yr for 4% “At Best”
Deep Web(English)
What Search “Finds”(75+ Different Engines)
(Includes Mis-Information)Source of the Whole: Steve Arnold, CEO Arnold ITSource 4% “at best”: General Tony Zinni, USMC (Ret)
Where Did We Go Wrong? How Do We Leap Ahead NOW?
Foreign Language33 core, 183 relevant
English
HUMAN to HUMANMACHINE SPEEDEnglish
Foreign Language33 core, 183 relevant
Digital Analog Oral/Historical Digital Analog Oral/Historical
UN/NGO
CIA/DO
FBIS
NGA NRO
NSA
StateM4IS2
TS/SCI
Status Quo Achievable NOWM4IS2: Multinational, Multiagency, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information-Sharing & Sense-Making
State Targets Lots of Assets
Not suitable for redirection
Organizational Targets Very Few Assets
Individual Targets Virtually No Assets
Dr. Cambone got it right:Universal coverage;
Neighborhood granularity
$65 Billion a YearTS/SCI Tubes
$600 Million a YearVery Badly Managed
Raw Available InformationBillions with Access to InternetBillions with Cell PhonesTotality of Human Intelligence
Intelligence Spending as Percent of Program 50
OSINT $
Sucking Chest Wound
TIME
#
DIOSC
Multinational Decision-Support
Centre (MDSC)
US IC USGOne-Way BIG PIPENRT Bridge to SIPR
Raw Open Source InOSINT on Demand Out
Raw Open Source InOSINT on Demand Out
UN/NGO
Two-Way Reachback
Military HubHost Academia
Host Commercial
Host Civil Society
Govt
LEA
Media
NGO
1
2
3
Future Far
Future Near
History &Current
Interests
NowStrategic, Operational, Tactical
Multinational & Inter-Tribal Information Sharing & Sense-Making
OperationalPartial Sharing+ Inter-Tribal National+ Regional Multinational--
Strategic-Operational
Strategic
Strategic Forecasting10% Need, 40% Cost
Primary Research & Experts on Demand20% Need, 30% Cost
Help Desk (Shared) Private Answers NOW 30% Need, 20% Cost
Recurring MonitoringAll Topics Big & Small40% Need, 10% Cost
Levels of Intelligence Investment
Herring Triangle Jan Herring, NIO/S&T 1970’sCompetitive Intelligence Guru
10 High-Level Threats to Humanity21st Century Demands Defense in Depth
PovertyDiseaseEcologyInter-State WarCivil WarGenocideOther AtrocitiesProlfieration
TerrorismTrans. Crime
AgricultureDiplom
acyEconom
yEducation
EnergyFam
ilyHealth
Imm
igrationJusticeSecuritySociety
Water1 2
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Iran
Russia
Venezuela
Wild Cards
3
0
0
ENERGY
Terrorism Proliferation
Poverty
Infectious Disease
Environmental Degradation
Inter-State Conflict & Civil War
Genocide & Other
Atrocities
Transnational Crime1
2
3
4 & 5
6 & 7
89
10
Agriculture TIME
Diplomacy
Economy & Immigration
EducationFamily & Society
Health
Justice & Security
Water
High-Level Threats to Humanity
True Costs Known
Energized Reality-Based Policies
Energetically Waging Peace for Profit
Re-Focusing Defense IntelligenceCenter Collection on HUMINT-OSINT
1. Directorate of Open Sources & Methods (DO)2. DH to status as “god-father” of DO3. Global Virtual Translation Network within DO4. New ATL/OTE and IG Support Branches5. Plan for MILCON OSINT/MDSC Center in NCA6. Create Peace Support Network with USIP7. Civil Affairs Brigade Integrated into ConOps
1. Office of Information-Sharing Agreements2. Co-located with NDIC and Library3. Multinational Decision-Support Centre (MDSC)4. Brief 90 Nations, invite 1-3 person rotationals5. Create unclassified “pit”/”cave” at MDSC6. Create NRT feed of all DO raw information to SIPR7. Create Multinational Analytic Support Brigade
Re-Structuring Defense IntelligenceOrganizational Intelligence through Processing
1. DoD Does Not Do Any of These Well2. DIA Has a Chance to Create a Pilot that Does3. Cell Phones and Rapid SMS are the Field Key4. Harvesting Commercial Information Also Key5. DIA is Can Pioneer Organizational Intelligence6. Africa, Central Asia, South America all Prospects7. We Can Demonstrate Kinetic Value of OSINT
1. OSINT Program Line Will Allow Fresh Start2. Get Allocations Right in First Place3. Strategic Forecasting with EarthGame4. Global Intelligence Council, Multinational5. Global Help Desk within DIOSC and MDSC6. Global Network of Issue Monitors Online7. Common Global View of the Battlefield
Re-Vitalizing Defense IntelligenceAnalytics Must be Whole—In Depth
1. QDR Will Get It Wrong Without Integral Analysis’2. DoD Today Optimizes for 10% of the Threat3. DoD Today Obsessing on Two Small Boxes (0)4. Ten High-Level Threats Demand DoD Respect5. Twelve Policies Reduce DoD Exposure & Expense6. Eight Challengers will Determine the Future7. What We Can Do Is Show Them the Way Forward
1. Holistic Analysis Centered on Energy2. Threats are Related to One Another3. Policies Must be Harmonized within USG4. Spending Must be Harmonized by Issue Area5. USG Can Use OSINT to Influence Others’ $$$6. Global Range of Needs Table Available7. Information Peacekeeping & Arbitrage
History1.OMB Staff OK with $125M/Year IOC2.USD(I) Offered USSOCOM $2B/Year FOC3.OSINT Moribund Since BGen Stewart left4.Convergence of Players Occurring
Recommendations1.DIA elevate DIOSPO to Direct Report/DO2.OSINT Program Line Across DoD3.$125M IOC from 1 October 20094.USMC and USSOCOM as Pilot Partners5.MILCON for Quantico OSINT Center inclusive of Multinational Decision-Support Center