Open Sesame: Arab Mobile Markets Michael Minges [email protected] The views expressed are those of the...
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Open Sesame: Arab Mobile Markets Michael Minges [email protected] The views expressed are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Members
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Transcript of Open Sesame: Arab Mobile Markets Michael Minges [email protected] The views expressed are those of the...
Open Sesame: Arab Mobile Markets
Michael Minges
The views expressed are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Members
Topics
The mobile revolutionSome Arab States behindEmerging Arab mobile starsIssues to consider
A Mobile RevolutionA Mobile Revolution
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.
More than 300 million users250’000 new users added each dayUsers double every 20 monthsCompetitive markets
Worldwide mobile cellular subscribers (millions)
553423161191
144
215
318
28%
8%5%4%
12%
3%2%
16%
21%
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Mobile as % of total
telephone subscribers
A mobile futureA mobile future
Source: 1990-1998 data from ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database. 1999-2010 ITU projections.
Mobile has overtaken fixed-lines in Cambodia & Finland
Mobile subscribers to overtake fixed-line worldwide before 2010
Mobile revenue to overtake fixed-line after 2004
Telephone subscribers,
millions, 1990-2010
0
500
1'000
1'500
2'000
1990 2000 2010
Fixed
Mobile
“Mobile will substitute for fixed telephony as the primary form for personal communications”—Vodafone
Under performing
Qatar
Bahrain
Saudi ArabiaOman
Lebanon
JordanMoroccoEgyptTunisiaAlgeria
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
$2'000 $4'000 $6'000 $8'000 $10'000 $12'000GDP per capita, US$, 1997
Mobile cellular subscribersper 100 people, 1997
These countries are doing better
than expected
These countries are doing worse than expected
One is no fun
Arab States have least competitive cellular markets
Limited supply
Œ
2 01
11
1
11
1
1
1
0
1
0
11
12
0
1
3
UgandaUganda
Number of mobile operatorsX
NOTE: This map is for illustrative purposes only!!!
Sub-Saharan Mobile Success Story
Enters market 10/98
Startsup
5/95
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 Sep-99
Forecast
UgandaMobile subscribers 000s Uganda: Least
Developed Country category
Introduces competition October 1998
By September 1999, more mobile than fixed subscribers
Both mobile operators backed by strategic foreign investors
More mob-ile
than fixed
First Arab country to introduce mobile competition
2 Build-Operate-Transfer (BOTs) start May ‘95:
Libancell
• Sonera (Finland) 14%
Cellis
• France Telecom 67%
Lebanon: The Arab mobile pioneer
0
5
10
15
20
25
1994 1996 1998 2000
Lebanon: Telephone density
Fore-cast
Mobile
Fixed
Lebanon: Universal coverage, high substitution
Egypt opens up
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
1994 1995 1996 juin-97
déc-97
juin-98
déc-98
août-99
déc-99
déc-00
déc-01
Starts11/96
Starts11/98
ForecastEgypt: Mobile cellular subscribers (000s)
Morocco sets a record
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 93 96 99 02 05 08
Mobile cellular subscribersper 100 inhabitants
Awards 2nd license in July 1999
Price of license fee per population highest ever for developing country
New operator expects to capture half of market by 2003
Source: Telefonica (Spain)
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000
UAEBahrainLebanonQatarKuwaitOmanSaudi ArabiaJordanEgyptMoroccoTunisiaLibyaAlgeriaDjiboutiSudan
Arab Mobile Stages
Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants
Technology
Almost all Arab States use GSM:
14 networks 3.1 million subscribers
(June ‘99)
3rd generation mobile (IMT-2000):
Global roaming Multimedia Multimode Japan (2001), European
Union by 1/1/2002
D-AMPS6%
PDC11%
CDMA7%
PHS
2%
GSM44%
Analogue30%Digital 70%
Worldwide cellular subscribers by technology, 1998
Coverage
Mobile cellular coverage is an important indicator of Universal Access
~ 100% population coverage + pre-paid card = Universal Access
Tariffs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Alg
eri
a
Ye
me
n
UA
E
Qa
tar
Kuw
ait
Asi
a
Tun
isia
Le
bano
n
Ara
b S
tate
s
WO
RL
D
Eur
ope
Sa
udi A
rabi
a
Egy
pt
Jord
an
Mo
rocc
o
Om
an
Mobile Tariffs, 1999, 100 minutes per month, US$
Publication launch: 10 October 1999 (TELECOM ‘99)
Available on paper and online (PDF format)
Website:
http://www.itu.int/ti/publications/wtdr_99/wtdr99.htm
For more information…
WORLD TELECOMMUNICATION DEVELOPMENT REPORT 1999
Also see: “The world in your pocket”. Telecommunication Survey. October 9 1999.
www.economist.com
