IFPRI Open HouseENSA-ISFAR

IFPRI Standard modelA 1-minute explanation

Ligane Massamba J. Sene

31-03-2014

Introduction

• CGE : Policy issues • Equations describing model variables• Often used in developing countries such as those based on

the IFPRI template model• IFPRI standard model features

Activities

Factor markets

Households

Commodity markets

Rest of world

Government Sav. / Invest.

Returns Domestic private savings

Taxes

Costs

Transfers

Private cons. Gov. cons.Invest. demand

ExportsImports

Sales

Foreign savingsForeign transfers

Intermed. demand

Typical model structure

Activities

Factor markets

Commodity markets

Households

Rest of world

Household surveys

National accounts

Supply/use table

Labor force surveys

Trade data

B.o.P.

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)

+ =

Data requirements

Marketed commodity

Application : Food price shocks & CAADP in Senegal

• Key features of Senegal Economy • Agriculture, the main economic activity in rural areas (60% of

the population live in rural areas)• Erratic agricultural growth and national GDP growth rate

around 3.5% that is below the government target of 7% as specified in the SCA.

• Poverty rate of 46% in 2011• Knowledge gap to fill for optimal agricultural policies (food

prices hikes & poor agriculture performance)• Data requirement (Agricultural SAM for Senegal, ESPS II)

Agricultural commodities and sectors in the model

Food prices : Simulation designs

Food price shocks: Poverty impacts

CAADP impacts in Senegal

• The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) : as part of NEPAD in July 2003 and focus on improving and promoting agriculture across Africa.

• Allocation of 10 per cent of national budget to agriculture• An agricultural growth target of 6 per cent

• The programme focuses on four key areas to improve productivity and growth. Land and water management, Market access, Food supply and hunger and Agricultural Research

Targeted yields: rice 6.68, millet/sorghum 1.05 , maïze 1.5 , peanut 1.2

CAADP impacts in Senegal

CAADP impacts in Senegal

Conclusion

• Policy option in response to food price hikes should be targeted to optimize the impact on poverty reduction

• The simulated low magnitude change in transaction costs, generally due to remoteness and infrastructure quality, have impact on poverty especially in rural area albeit marginally.

• Infrastructure for market access • Additional effort for more poverty reduction

Thank you for your attention