Open enrollments Opportunities and difficulties of community colleges and open-admission...

OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016

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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER

DECEMBER 8, 2016

Thomas Bailey Community College Research Center

Teachers College, Columbia University

Open enrollments Opportunities and difficulties of community

colleges and open-admission institutions

Thomas Bailey

Director Community College Research Center


Opening Higher Education, Session 4: Widening access to higher education

December 8, 2016

@CommunityCCRC

#RedesigningCCs


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(i) What are the opportunities and challenges of

community colleges and open-admission institutions?

(ii) What is the value of sub-degrees for the labour market?

(iii) What could be the value of starting a degree without

completion?

(iv) What is the role of technology to widen access and

does it work?

Questions?


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(i) Opportunities

(i) Value of sub-degrees for the labour market?

(ii) What could be the value of starting a degree without

completion?

(ii) Challenges

(iii) What is the role of technology to widen access and

does it work?

Outline


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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER OECD OPENING HIGHER EDUCATION: WHAT THE FUTURE MIGHT BRING / DECEMBER 8, 2016 COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER

Opportunities


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Community College Basics

• Types of programs

– “Terminal” occupational degrees

– Transfer to bachelors degrees

– Short term skill building


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Average Published Tuition and Fees (Enrollment-

Weighted) for Full-Time Undergraduates by Sector,

2015-16

$3,435

$9,410

$32,405

$15,610

Public 2-year (In-State)

Public 4-year (In-State)

Private non-Profit

Private for-Profit

Source: CollegeBoard, “Trends in College Pricing”, Table 1A


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Almost half of all undergraduates are

enrolled at community colleges

CCRC Summary of Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 12-month unduplicated headcount: 2013-14

45%

55% Undergraduates

NOT at community

colleges Undergraduates

at community

colleges


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More than one-third of community

college students are age 25 or above Community Colleges Public 4-year

CCRC Summary of Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall Enrollment: Fall 2014

19 or Under,

32%

20-24, 32%

25-29, 13%

30 or Older, 24%

19 or Under,

33%

20-24, 50%

25-29, 8%

30 or Older,

9%


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37% 33% 24% 24%

18%

22% 21%

16% 15% 15%

15% 16%

13% 14% 16%

16% 18%

21% 21% 21%

9% 11%

25% 26% 30%

Community Colleges Public Baccalaureate Private Baccalaureate Public Research &Doctoral

Private Research &Doctoral

Bottom SES Fourth SES Quintlie Third SES Quintlie Second SES Quintile Top SES Quintile

Socioeconomic distribution at colleges by

institutional type, 2011-12

CCRC Analysis using National Postsecondary Student Aid Study: 2012 Undergraduates (PowerStats); Income Quintile is based on 2012

household income as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/ (Table H-

1). Both dependent and independent students are combined.

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/


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Pre-college work

In-college work

Post-college work

High school College More

college

Student Progress is Complex


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Median Earnings and Tax Payments of Full-Time Year-

Round Workers Ages 25 and Older, by Education

Level, 2011

SOURCES: Baum, Ma, and Payne (2013) Education Pays, 2013, College Board. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2012, Table

PINC-03; Internal Revenue Service, 2010; Davis et al., 2013; calculations by the authors.


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Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and

Education Level, 2012

SOURCES :Baum, Ma, and Payne (2013) Education Pays, 2013, College Board. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau,

2012b; calculations by the authors.


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$1,800

$1,040

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000

KY

MI

NC

Mean

VA

WA

AR

KY

MI

NC

Mean

VA

WA

AR

Quarterly Earnings Gains: AA over No Award 8 Years Post-FTIC (Fixed

Effects)

Male

Female


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$1,800

$1,040

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000

KYMI

NCMean F

VAWAAR

KYMI

NCMean M

VAWAAR

Quarterly Earnings Gains: AA over No Award 8 Years Post-FTIC (Fixed

Effects)

Male

Female

PV gain for AA

(30 years d=3%)

Male $75,000

Female $135,000


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570

250

-300 600 1500

WAMI

MeanVAKYNCAR

MINCKY

MeanWAVAAR

Quarterly Earnings Gains: Certificate over No Award 8 Years Post-FTIC

(Fixed Effects)

Gains are: modest,

temporary, non-robust

(except in health).

But certificates vary

substantially in credits.

Male

Female


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NLSY97 college sample:

Model coefficients

relative to no award

Annual Earnings 2011-13 Average

(2013 dollars)

Male Female

[M1] Any Certificate −2,101

[2894]

−1,316

[1526]

[M2] Stacked award 3,220

[4371]

5,268**

[2505]

[M3] Cert+AA (prog./suppl.) −4,690

[6646]

7,939*

[3858]

Cert+BA (prog./suppl.) 940

[3853]

3,146

[3235]

Cert+Cert (independent) 8,058

[7848]

−1,146

[4993]

[M4] Stacked award incl. vocational 6,334**

[1781]

2,753**

[1186]

Observations 1,658 1,857

NLSY97 postsecondary transcript file, transcript/panel weights 2013. Controls for region, ASVAB, race, maternal ed., family income,

exp., other postsecondary awards. Robust standard errors in brackets.


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• Value of an Associates Degree Compared to High School Degree

– Average 13% for Males

– Average 20% for Females

– But differs by field (Associate of Arts or General Studies mainly

valuable for transfer)

• Benefits to Society Exceed Costs

– Economic Growth

– Health

– Welfare Receipt

– Reduced Crime

A good investment for students and society


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Challenges


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Source: CCRC

Dev Ed Sorting System


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• 80 percent of CC students want a bachelors degree

• Only one-third of all students transfer

• About 40 percent of those earn a bachelors degree

• 14% of degree seeking students starting at a CC earn a 4-

year college degree within 6 years

Student Pathways: Transfers


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Slightly more than one third of community

college students earn a degree in 6 years

36%

20%

44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Earned a degree at any institution Still enrolled at an institution Not enrolled

Shapiro et al. (2014). Completing College: A National View of Student Attainment Rates. National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.


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-$400

$400

$1,200

$2,000

$2,800

1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61+

Quarterly Earnings Gain over Zero Credits for Non-Completers

(8 Years After FTIC in VA/NC)

Average

Credits Earned


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Per-pupil total operating and education & related

expenditures (i.e., excluding sponsored research &

auxiliary enterprise), AY 2011

Desrochers, D. M., & Hurlburt, S. (2011). Trends in College Spending 2001–2011 (Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research), figure

S2, 19–21.

$67,359

$37,408

$21,130 $19,377

$12,918

$35,059

$21,677

$16,009 $13,081

$9,550

Private ResearchSector

Private Bachelor'sSector

Public ResearchSector

Public Bachelor'sSector

Public CommunityCollege Sector

Total Operating Education & Related


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Changes in total operating spending per student

over time, AY 2001–2011

Desrochers, D. M., & Hurlburt, S. (2011). Trends in College Spending 2001–2011 (Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research), figure

S2, 19–21. Data Shown in 2011 Dollars.

$11,538

$2,780

$(118) $(322) $(904)

$9,304

$991 $349

($1,097) ($1,427)

Private ResearchSector

Public ResearchSector

Private Bachelor'sSector

Public Bachelor'sSector

Public CommunityCollege Sector

Total Operating Education & Related


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Technology


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• Information to students and staff

• Tracking progress

• Instruction

Uses of Technology


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Penn’s Coursera Offerings (U.S. Respondents)

Level of Education

Have College Degree

MOOC enrollees

Have College Degree

U.S. population

Christensen et al., November 2013, “Who takes MOOCs and why?” Penn State Working Paper


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Raw withdrawal rates: CC math & English

25%

19%

12% 10%

Math withdrawal Rate English withdrawal Rate

Online

Face-to-face

18% 20%

10% 12%

Math Withdrawal Rate English Withdrawal Rate

Virginia Washington


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Raw Course Withdrawal & Grade: Ethnicity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

F2F Online

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

F2F Online

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian

Other

% Withdrawal Grade (Among Completers)

(C)

(B)

(A)


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Please visit us on the web at

http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu

where you can download presentations, reports,

and briefs, and sign-up for news announcements.

We’re also on Facebook and Twitter.

Community College Research Center


525 West 120th Street, Box 174, New York, NY 10027

E-mail: [email protected] Telephone: 212.678.3091

For more information

@CommunityCCRC

#RedesigningCCs

Open enrollments Opportunities and difficulties of community colleges and open-admission...

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