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Rail Futures Institute Inc28 April, 2020

MELBOURNE’S AIRPORT RAILWAYRAIL FOR MELBOURNE’S BURGEONING WEST

FAST TRAINS TO REGIONAL VICTORIA

PUBLIC TRANSPORT FORUM

ONLY ONE OPPORTUNITY

TO GET THEM RIGHT !

WHAT IS RAIL FUTURES INSTITUTE ?

The Rail Futures Institute (RFI) is an independentnon-partisan group.

RFI was formed in 2013 to advocate cost-effectiverail and intermodal solutions for public transportand freight problems based on sound commercial,economic and social reasoning.

Rail Futures members include experienced railprofessionals, urban planners, engineers andeconomists.

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REGIONAL RAIL LINKA Victim of It’s own Success in 4 YEARS

• RRL added two new tracks between Southern Cross and Sunshine, for use by Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo trains

• BUT within 4 years of opening – the combination of Geelong line patronage plus Ballarat, Bendigo and outer metropolitan travellers from the Melton and Wyndham Vale LGAs has consumed its total peak track capacity of 18 trains an hour and resulted in significant peak overcrowding issues.

V/LINE patronage growth rates over 4 years to 2018/19:

• GEELONG LINE + 131 % ( 2018/19 + 13 % )

• BALLARAT LINE + 46 % ( 2018/19 + 5 % )

• BENDIGO LINE + 17 % ( 2018/19 + 4 % )

RFR, RRL and VLocity Investments –Victims of Recent Rail Improvements

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Population growth driving demand

LGA 2011 Census

2016 Census

2018Estimate

2036Forecast

% growth2011-2018

% growth2018-2036

Wyndham 161,575 217,122 255,320 459,200 58% 80%

Geelong 210,875 233,429 252,220 360,250 20% 43%

Melton 109,259 135,443 156,710 332,050 43% 112%

Moorabool 28,124 31,818 34,160 49,940 21% 46%

Ballarat 93,501 101,686 107,330 145,930 15% 36%

Population growth, past and prospective, especially in these

five key Local Government Areas, is the key driver of major

investment URGENTLY needed on the Geelong & Ballarat lines:

Criteria MM1 and MARL each as Stand Alone Projects

MM1/MARLCombined Operation

MM1 & MARL peak period train path early years capacity utilisation

MM1 88%MARL 60% (includes Geelong line)

100% - no capacity for further growth

Implications for Melton Electrification (via MM1)

Melton - up to 10 trains per peak hour linked into MM1

Melton shares with Airport services, e.g.Melton 4, Airport 6 trains per peak hour

Implications for Wyndham Vale Electrification(via RRL lines)

Wyndham Vale electric up to 12 trainsper hour plus Ballarat and Bendigo lines

(Geelong line in MARL corridor)

Wyndham Vale electric maximum 6 trains per hour plus Geelong, Ballarat

and Bendigo lines

Trip time CBD to Airport 18 minutes (from Southern Cross) 31 minutes (from Town Hall)

Trip times CBD (Southern Cross or Town Hall) to Sunshine

Fast lines (via tunnel) 7–8 minutesSemi-fast lines (RRL) 12-14 minutes

Slow or local lines (MM1)19 minutes

RRL lines 12-14 minutesSuburban lines (MM1) 19 minutes

Normal hours of operation MM1 approximately 4.30am to midnightMARL continuous 24/7

All approximately 4.30am to midnight

Predicted reliability (on-time within 4 minutes 59 seconds)

MM1 93% (as per Business Case)MARL 99%

92%

Melbourne Metro 1 and MARLQuantified comparison between Stand Alone Projects & Combined Operation

Western Rail Plan - Delivery is Urgent• Highest priority is Wyndham Vale Electrification to relieve intolerable

overcrowding on Geelong trains, ramped up over three phases:

– By late 2024 - Limited electric service replacing V/Line diesel trains from Southern Cross to Wyndham Vale, extended to Black Forest Road, but without additional intermediate stations.

– By mid-2026 - Doubling of initial services post-Melton electrification when Melton trains are diverted from RRL lines into MM1, one or two new intermediate stations can be opened and separate express lines for Geelong trains provided from Deer Park to Black Forest Road.

– By mid-2028 - Full suburban service when Geelong trains are diverted onto MARL corridor to Sunshine and remaining intermediate stations are opened.

• Next is Melton Electrification and express lines Sunshine to Melton for Ballarat trains ( & Geelong trains as far as Deer Park), with completion of works in parallel with MM1 opening late 2025.

• Next are Express lines Deer Park to Wyndham Vale and Black Forest Road with completion linked to Melton Electrification opening mid-2026. (Note: RRL project works have already made active provision for these additional tracks).

Geelong Fast RailTwo principal options:

1. Use MARL tunnel and additional express lines Sunshine to Black Forest Road, and upgrade track Black Forest Road to North Shore

2. Use MM2 to Newport South and additional express lines from Newport South to West Werribee, and upgrade track West Werribee to North Shore

– Option 1 should be achievable by 2028 (with total separation of Geelong and Wyndham Vale trains by 2026)

– Option 2 unlikely to be achievable much before 2040

– Option 2 costs much higher than Option 1, service outcomes similar

Ballarat Fast Rail Use of MARL tunnel, additional express lines Deer Park to Melton and upgrading Melton to Ballarat would form the basic scope of Ballarat Fast Rail.

- IF no MARL tunnel then no FAST Train exit from CBD for Ballarat trains.

FAST Trains require NEW Rollingstock Types – New higher performance rolling stock will be required for both corridors.

Options are for full electrification to Geelong/Waurn Ponds and/or Ballarat or bi-modal trains (electric/diesel hybrid) suitable for operation in long tunnels..

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Melbourne Metro 2 (MM2)• MM2 remains a critical component of Melbourne’s future

heavy rail network, linking Werribee to the Mernda line via Newport, Fishermans Bend, Southern Cross, Flagstaff, Parkville, Fitzroy and Croxton.

• Requires continuous 17 km twin tunnels from Newport West to beyond Fitzroy at Croxton – passing through some of Melbourne’s most challenging ground conditions, two under river crossings - one below the main shipping channel.

• Includes up to 8 underground stations, depending on options in the Fishermans Bend precinct. MM2 scope and cost likely to be around double that of MM1.

• Planning, procurement, approvals and construction duration is unlikely to be less than 15 years from funding commitment.

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CENTRAL CBD TERMINAL

at SOUTHERN CROSS

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Melbourne Metro (MM1) AND

AIRTrain CONNECT AT SUNSHINE

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All other suburban linesconnect at Southern Cross

All Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo

trains connect at Sunshine

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MELBOURNE AIRtrainCAN BE OPERATING BY 2028

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