Online Securities Ltd. Is a member of the JSE Ltd. and an authorised Financial Services Provider,...

Online Securities Ltd. Is a member of the JSE Ltd. and an authorised Financial Services Provider, FSP No. 42996

Introduction to Currency Futures Webinar

Shaun van den BergHead of Client Education Wednesday, 10th July 201313h00 until 14h00


Agenda

• Introduction• What are Currency Futures?• Where is this instrument

traded?• How to trade Currency

Futures?• Advantages • Risks • Tools for Trading Currency

Futures• Summary • Conclusion


Introduction to Currency Futures



• Growing market:• 2012 – Average R20-billion per month• 2013 – Average R36-billion per month• “Big Tickets” - $10-million at a time

• 35 Market Players• Big four banks - Market Makers

• RMB, Standard Bank & ABSA• Account for 70% of trade

• 5 Institutions & 26 Brokerages • Account for 30% of trade


• JSE introduced currency futures in 2007 • Currency futures are standardised contracts that are traded on the JSE’s

Currency Derivatives Trading Platform. • Allowed local traders the exposure to foreign currency movements relative to

the Rand without affecting their offshore allowance.• Currency future contracts allow traders to benefit from the movement in the

currency futures rate between the Rand & several major international currencies.

• Currency traders can also buy & sell currency pairs in order to obtain "long" or "short" exposure - make money while the currency exchange rates move up or down.

• Buy Dollar & Sell Rand• Buy Rand & Sell Dollar

• Currency traders do not have to deposit cash to match the whole value of the futures position

• Geared product - Deposit enough cash to cover the initial margin • Fixed Rand amount per contract equal to between 10% & 20% per contract.

What are Currency Futures?


• Expiry = Third Monday of every quarter (March, June, September & December)• Rollover = No rollover cost• Brokerage = R18.00 per contract• Margin = 2 x margin requirement that is quoted by JSE • Contract size = 1 contract exposes you to 1 000 of the foreign underlying

currency – e.g. US$1000 or €1000 or ₤1000

• Price Movement 1 c = R10 Profit or Loss per contract• The trade needs to move 3c in order for you to break even

• Gearing/Leverage = 10 times• Cash Settled on expiry in Rands.• Contracts quoted in SA Rand to 4 decimal places• Contract can be closed or rolled at the end of the contract expiry to the next

contract period.

Currency Future details


Who trades Currency Futures?

• The fund manager looking at hedging his offshore exposure • Choose to sell Dollar contracts to hedge against strengthening

USDZAR. • A farmer importing machinery from France

• Choose to buy Euro contracts to hedge against weakening EURZAR.

• An investor with ordinary shares in Sasol • Choose to buy Dollar contracts to protect his Sasol holdings

from Rand strength. • A speculator who views the Pound as being overvalued relative to

the Rand • Decide to sell GBPZAR contracts - Benefit from currency

exchange should this move take place.


• Dollar/Rand• Euro/Rand• Pound/Rand • Aussie Dollar/Rand• Yen/Rand• Canadian Dollar/Rand• Swiss Franc/Rand

Currency pairs traded on the JSE


• Traders choose to either buy (long) or sell (short) a specific currency pair. – For example, if you think the US Dollar is going to strengthen

relative to the South African Rand, you would go long/buy the USDZAR contract.

– By doing this you are automatically buying Dollars & selling the Rand at the same time.

• Alternatively, you might think that the Euro is overvalued relative to the South African Rand (and therefore should weaken) in which case you would short/sell the EURZAR contract.

• By doing this you are automatically selling Euros & buying the Rand at the same time.

Buying & Selling



How Currency Futures workWhere does the trading take place?What is the Order Book?Why is the Spot Price different to the Future price?How do I calculate the Future price?What is Fair Value and why do I care about it?


• In order to open the futures position an investor must deposit the necessary initial margin with the JSE.

– Initial margin is 2 times the JSE margin. 50% of this amount will go to initial margin & the other 50% will go to retained margin, used as a buffer for MTM movements.

– Marked-to-Market (MTM) – The daily revaluation of each open position by the exchange at the close of each business day.

– Variation margin – The daily process through which the unrealised profits & losses are processed into the client’s cash account by the exchange through the MTM process.

• Leverage (or “gearing”) simply means to trade with margin.The value of currencies transactions engaged is higher than the amount a trader or investor has on margin.

– Leverage is a double-edged sword. Leveraged positions can lead to large gains if the exchange rate between two currencies moves as anticipated, but conversely will cause large losses if the exchange rate moves in the opposite direction. The concept of being “wiped out” is not just a theoretical possibility, but a real one.

How Currency Futures work


• Currency futures trade on the JSE's Currency Derivatives Trading Platform.• On the exchange, trading takes place publicly in a centralised location called

the Order Book– Hours, trading practices & other matters are regulated by the JSE. 09:00-

17:00– Margin payments, daily marking to market (MTM), & cash settlements

through a central clearing house & guaranteed by the JSE.– Trades are M-T-M at the end of the day where the JSE takes an average

price during the last 10-minutes of trading 16:50-17:00

Where does the trading take place?


• Order book is the place where all the orders are lumped together.• Order are arranged in a price-time priority• The bids are all the buyers• The offers are all the sellers

• Buyer prepared to pay the most will be at the top of the bid side• Seller looking to sell the lowest price will be at the top of the

offer side.• If you want to buy - either enter a specific price that you would like to

buy at or you buy right where the market is trading. • If you are buying at market - Your bid will execute against the

price of the best offer• If you are selling at market, you offer will execute against the

price of the best bid

What is the Order Book?


All the buyers in the market

Large market maker in the market, normally a bank

PSG Currency client looking to buy 8 contracts at 8.40. Order will only execute when the Offer becomes 8.40

All the sellers in the market

What is the Order Book?


• Difference between spot price & futures price is as a result of “The forward points.”

• Forward points are a function of the interest rate differential between the two domestic countries.

• Forward points should offset / neutralise interest rate differential between the two currencies

• Prevent any risk-free arbitrage opportunities.

Why is the Spot Price different to the Future price?


• At the start of the futures contract the forward points are normally around 13 cents

• As the futures contract moves from the start date to the expiry date, the forward points slowly erode away & move towards zero

• At contract expiry, the forward points are zero & thus the spot price = the futures price

Graph 2: Showing how the spot price and futures price converge at expiry

Why is the Spot Price different to the Future price?


• To calculate the forward points, the following elements play a role:– The Deal Date– The Maturity (or Settlement) date– The overnight interest rates of the applicable countries

(currencies)

How do I calculate the Future price?


• Maturity date is 82-days forward (27 June 2012 to 17 Sep 2012).• The spot exchange rate USDZAR: 8.20• South African JIBAR = 5.595% (0.5595)• US 3-month Treasury = 0.1% (0.0100)

• Points are added when the interest rate of the base currency (USD) is the lower one (0.1% vs. 5.595%), since the base currency should trade at a forward premium.

• The future rate would thus be 8.20000 + 0.1234 = 8.3234

Calculating the Future price


What is Fair Value and why do I care about it?

• The spot price & futures price should always trade in tandem to each other

• For very short times frames in the day, market conditions can change & currency markets become more or less volatile, market makers may widen their spreads.

• When this happens the futures prices moves further away from spot price by more than the forwards points

• Fair value is calculated by adding the forward points to the current spot price. – This calculates where the future should be trading theoretically.

• Use fair value as a guide to decide if the market makers are pricing fairly or ripping you off.


• The Rand is trading at 8.4616 to the US Dollar– Forward points for the day are 0.0195

• Fair value should be around 8.4811 (8.4616 + 0.0195)• Now look at the futures order book below:

– Best Bid is 8.4762– Best Offer is 8.4830

• The future is thus well priced

What is Fair Value and why do I care about it?



Example of a Speculative TradeExample of a Hedge TradeWhat are the Benefits of Currency Futures?What are the Risks to trading Currency Futures?


Normal future trade – Dollar Bear• Client A feels that in the current economic environment there is a lot of positive

sentiment & he feels that we will start seeing a more risk-on* environment coming our way

• Client A feels that US Dollar is overvalued & should depreciate in the near future.• On day 1 the spot rate is trading at 8.2000• The future is trading at 8.3234.

• Client A sells 100 Sep 12 USDZAR contracts @ 8.3234• Margin per contract is R340.00 per contract.

• Remember margin must be multiplied by 2 (R340 x 2 = R680). • Brokerage is R18.00 per contract

• Brokerage is paid to open the position & again when the position is closed).• Client A pays to PSG R69 800 (R68 000 +R 1 800)• Initial margin earns interest on deposit at SAFEX rates.

Example of a Speculative Trade

*A risk on environment causes investors to shy away from safe haven assets like the USD, JPY and CHF. Money flow should then favour risky assets. The Rand is a regarded as a risk asset being an emerging market currency.


Example of a Speculative Trade


Example of Speculative Trading - Cash Flow Table Trade Date Trade Date

Day 1Day 1 Day 2 Day 2 Day 3 Day 3 Day 4 Day 4

Initial Margin Initial Margin R -68 000R -68 000 R 0.00R 0.00 R 0.00R 0.00 R 68 000R 68 000

BrokerageBrokerage R -1 800R -1 800 R -1 800R -1 800

Trade Price Trade Price R 8.3234R 8.3234 R 8.2500R 8.2500 R 8.1500R 8.1500 R 8.2300R 8.2300

MTM Price MTM Price R 8.2500R 8.2500 R 8.1500R 8.1500 R 8.2300R 8.2300R8.1234 R8.1234

(CLOSED AT) (CLOSED AT) Profit/(Loss) Profit/(Loss) for the day for the day 8.3234-8.25008.3234-8.2500 8.2500-8.15008.2500-8.1500 8.1500-8.23008.1500-8.2300 8.2300-8.1234 8.2300-8.1234 x R10.00/pipx R10.00/pip 0.73400.7340 1.00001.0000 -0.8000-0.8000 1.07001.0700

x100x100 73.4073.40 100.00100.00 -80.00-80.00 106.60106.60x number of x number of

contracts (100)contracts (100) R 7 340R 7 340 R 10 000R 10 000 R -8 000R -8 000 R 10 660R 10 660

Net Cash flow Net Cash flow for the day for the day R 5 540R 5 540 R 10 000R 10 000 R -8 000R -8 000 R 8 860R 8 860


• Client B would like to send money abroad as part of his R4-million offshore allowance. – He has decided to use half & only send R2-million abroad.– With this money he intends to invest in equities & property.

• Client B has taken a look at the current spot price of 8.2000 & feels that this is an level is okay & wishes to do the spot conversion.

• Problem: He is concerned that the Rand will weaken from its current levels, & he will get less foreign currency for his Rand as a result by the time he does the actual conversion in a month’s time.– R2-million @R8.2000 = US$243 902.43– R2-million @R10.2000 = US$196 078.43

• Solution: Hedge the currency with the use of a future & lock in a rate.

Example of a Hedge Trade


How does a Hedge Trade work? • Client B buys the USDZAR future contract •This gives him the right to buy USD & sell Rand

•Specified rate •Specified date.

•One day 1 - Client B buys 244 Sep 12 USDZAR at 8.3224•Margin is R340 per contract x 2 x 244 = R165 920•In 1 month when the client does the spot conversion to convert Rands into Dollars at his local bank to send abroad, the Rand as expected, has weakened.•He has lost R0.30c by the Rand moving from 8.2000 to 8.5000.

•On his future hedge he has made R0.30c •USDZAR contract was bought at 8.3224 on the future & the future is now at 8.6224

•This has translated into a net profit on the hedge of R 65 001, which has offset the loss on the spot transaction effectively locking in the original spot rate of 8.2000


Example of Hedge Trading - Cash Flow Table 1 Trade Date 1 Trade Date

Day 1Day 1 Day 2 Day 2 Day 3 Day 3 Day 4 Day 4

Initial Margin Initial Margin R -165 920R -165 920 R 0.00R 0.00 R 0.00R 0.00 R 165 920R 165 920BrokerageBrokerage R -4 392R -4 392 R -4 392R -4 392

Trade Price Trade Price R 8.3200R 8.3200 R 8.4300R 8.4300 R 8.5700R 8.5700 R 8.4700R 8.4700

MTM Price MTM Price R 8.4300R 8.4300 R 8.5700R 8.5700 R 8.4700R 8.4700R8.6224 R8.6224

(CLOSED AT) (CLOSED AT)

Profit/(Loss) Profit/(Loss) for the day for the day 8.3200-8.43008.3200-8.4300 8.4300-8.57008.4300-8.5700 8.5700-8.47008.5700-8.4700 8.4700-8.62248.4700-8.6224x R10.00/pipx R10.00/pip 0.11000.1100 0.14000.1400 -0.1000-0.1000 0.152400.15240

x100x100 110.00110.00 140.00140.00 -100.00-100.00 152.40152.40x number of x number of

contracts contracts (244)(244) R 26 840R 26 840 R 34 160R 34 160 R -24 400R -24 400 R 37 185.60R 37 185.60

Net Cash flow Net Cash flow for the day for the day R 22 448R 22 448 R 34 160R 34 160 R -24 400R -24 400 R 32 793.60R 32 793.60


• Tight spreads & low currency trading costs - Allow traders to enter & exit positions, knowing that profits are not paid away each time there is a trade on the account.

• Cheap - Trading Currency Futures costs R18.00 (including VAT) per contract.• Transparent Pricing - Buy & sell prices are posted in real-time onto the central market by

the relevant market makers. • Geared product - Do not have to deposit cash to cover the full value of the position.• Favourable Rates – Currency Futures allow individual investors to take a view on the

movement of the currency futures rate & provide them with access to favourable rates usually reserved for larger corporate clients.

• Hedging - Importers & exporters can dynamically hedge their currency risk far more efficiently using futures due to the ease of entering & exiting futures positions & the low cost per trade.

• Market liquidity - Dedicated market makers ensure market liquidity & ensures that currency traders can open & close currency exchange contracts with multiple counterparties.

• M-T-M - Daily mark-to-market process allows clients ability to track profits or loss • Adjust portfolio accordingly.

• Settlement - Once the position has been closed out settlement occurs in Rand.• Daily Statements - Receive daily statements showing your margin & cash movement

What are the Benefits of Currency Futures?


• Currency futures are geared instruments. – With this leverage/gearing you are able to make large profits from small initial

layouts of capital. – Opposite is also true - Should the trade move against you, you could incur large

losses as a result of the leverage/gearing.– There is a risk that you may lose more money than you initially invested.

• Trading Currency Futures require:• A high appetite for risk• Time to watch the markets• Expert knowledge of the currency markets & associated trading process.

• Not for everyone - You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances & financial resources.

What are the Risks to trading Currency Futures?


• Each currency future trade is unique & comes with its own associated risks:• Volatility • Exchange rate risk • Credit risk • Monetary risk • Interest rate risk• The possibility of government intervention in the financial markets.

• Experienced traders learn to evaluate these variables. • The most important thing to remember is that not every trade will be a successful

trade resulting in profits. • With every trade you should also have a target price/profit target in mind. Be strict

and diligent. • Do not trade on emotion; trade on fundamentals

• A strategy & logic with some common sense. • It is very tempting to ride a trade into profit & stay in the trade for larger gains.

• This can go wrong & you may well ride the trade all the way back into losses.

What are the Risks to trading Currency Futures?


• PSG is well-known, independent & respected financial services provider. • Voted stockbroker of the year for 2011 & 2012 (As voted for by Business Day

Investors Monthly)• Regulated by the financial services board (FSB), as well as being a member of

the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). • PSG traders are highly skilled & approved by the JSE to trade on SAFEX.• Offer a competitive trading brokerage of R18 per contract

– Includes the JSE clearing & settlement fee. – There is no monthly account fee.

• Spreads / prices that you receive are the same as those that are trading on the JSE. – PSG does not add to or adjust the contract spreads / prices.

Advantages of PSG


Tools for Trading Currency Futures – Technical Analysis

Rand Weakness

200-day MA

50-day MA

Support

Resistance

Overbought

Undervalued/ Weak

Oversold

Overvalued/ Strong


Currency Futures Watch List • Here you can see live, streaming prices of 8 currency pairs • It shows the Bids (Buyers) & Offers (Sellers)•It provides the Last Price, Movement, Percentage %, Action - Link to New Order).

Trading Platform (New Order) •Here you can select 10 currency pairs to trade. •It provides today’s statistics (Last price, Difference, Difference %, High & Low). •It shows the Bids (Buyers) & Offers (Sellers) – Price in Rands & Volume (Contracts)•It shows account info – How much cash is available & Initial Margin Required

Portfolio / Holdings • This shows all your current open positions (Holdings) in the numerous currencies.• It displays the Currency Future Code, Currency, Open, Bought, Sold, Position, Closing MTM, Cost, Current Price Value, Initial Margin, Return (R) & Return %

Rand Report •Receive daily market research, market commentary, trader’s views, trading ranges & trade ideas •It helps you to make informed & educated investment decisions.

Tools for Trading Currency Futures


Currency Futures Watch List


Trading Platform (New Order)

0.013c Difference


Portfolio / Holdings


Home Page/ Resources

Step 1Click

Resources


Resources Page / News

Step 2Select News


News – Categories / Rand Reports

Step 3Select Rand

Reports

Step 4Select Report


Rand Reports (3 Sections)


Rand Reports – News of the Day


Rand Reports – Economic Calendar


Rand Reports – View of the Day


Rand Reports – View of the Day / Chart


• Visit the Currency Futures page on the PSG Online website – click here• Call PSG Online on 0860 774 774 • Email [email protected] • Our Currency Futures team will arrange for the opening of your

account.• You can register online – click here

How do I start?


• Once your Currency Futures account is opened & you have sent your FICA, you will be issued with a Currency Account Number e.g. ABC456

• Next you need to deposit your margin into the clearers bank accountFIRST NATIONAL BANK

Account Name: ONLINE SECURITIES LIMITEDAccount Number: 62225356949Branch Number: 255005

• Kindly quote your currency account number as reference with all deposits made

• Once the money has cleared it will be allocated to your currency account and you can start trading!

Where do I deposit margin?


Remember the benefits:•Tight spreads & low currency trading costs •Cheap •Transparent Pricing •Favourable Rates •Speculate•Hedge •Market liquidity•M-T-M •Daily Statements•Settlement •Geared product

Summary


Upcoming Webinars**• Technical Analysis: Elliot Wave, Cycle Analysis, etc.

• Date: Wednesday, 24 July 2013 • Time: 13:00 - 14:00

• Trading Introduction to Exchange Traded Products• Date: Wednesday, 7 August 2013 • Time: 13:00 - 14:00

• Trading Currency Futures (Part 2)• Date: Wednesday, 28 August 2013 • Time: 13:00 - 14:00

• Introduction to the Share Market• Date: Wednesday, 11 September 2013 • Time: 13:00 - 14:00

• Conquering Technical Analysis• Date: Wednesday, 25 September 2013 • Time: 13:00 - 14:00

**Please note: limited to 100 people

• Trading Equity Derivatives • Date: Wednesday, 2 October 2013 • Time: 13:00 - 14:00

• Understanding Fundamental Analysis • Date: Wednesday, 30 October 2013 • Time: 13:00 - 14:00

• Introduction to Japanese Candlesticks• Date: Wednesday, 13 November 2013 • Time: 13:00 - 14:00

• Investment Strategies: Value, Growth & Dividends• Date: Wednesday, 27 November 2013 • Time: 13:00 - 14:00

• Introduction to Point & Figure Charts• Date: Wednesday, 11 December 2013 • Time: 13:00 - 14:00


Upcoming Traders Forum meetings

• Traders Forum meeting (JHB)• Date: Tuesday, 30 July 2013 • Time: 18:00 until 20:00

• Traders Forum meeting (CPT)• Date: Wednesday, 21 August 2013• Time: 18:00 until 20:00

• Traders Forum meeting (DBN)• Date: Monday, 30 September

2013 • Time: 18:00 until 20:00

• Traders Forum meeting (PTA)• Date: Tuesday, 29 October 2013 • Time: 18:00 until 20:00

• Traders Forum meeting (JHB)• Date: Tuesday, 26 November

2013• Time: 18:00 until 20:00

• Traders Forum meeting (CPT)• Date: Tuesday, 10 December

2013• Time: 18:00 until 20:00


• Review the information of the PSG Online website• Review this PowerPoint presentation

• Listen to the Webinar Recording• Email any questions• Book for the upcoming Webinars / Traders Forum

• Open a SSF/ Currency Futures account today!

• Good Luck & Happy Trading!

Conclusion


Contact Us

Thank YouShaun van den Berg

[email protected](011) 996 5254


Disclaimer

This publication has been issued by PSG Online. It is confidential and issued for the information of clients only. It shall not be reproduced in whole or in part without our permission. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources which and persons whom we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgement as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report is provided for informational purposes only. No information contained herein, no opinion expressed and no recommendation made constitutes a representation by us or a solicitation for the purchase of any of the securities mentioned herein and we have no responsibility whatsoever arising here from or in consequence hereof. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mention herein may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions using their own independent advisers as they believe necessary and based upon their specific financial situations and investment objectives. The employees of PSG Online may from time to time own securities mentioned herein. Analyst Certification The research analyst who prepared this report certifies that the view expressed herein accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about the subject security and issuer and that no part of his compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views contained in this report.

Online Securities Ltd. Is a member of the JSE Ltd. and an authorised Financial Services Provider,...

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