One Year from the Election…. mori summary 2014.pdfMay 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May...
Transcript of One Year from the Election…. mori summary 2014.pdfMay 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May...
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One Year from the Election….
Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI benatipsosmori
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8%
10%
13%
14%
11%
14%
15%
24%
31%
33%
47%
Defence/Foreign
Housing
Poverty/Inequality
Inflation/Prices
Pensions/Benefits
Education/Schools
Crime/Law & order
NHS/Hospitals
Unemployment
Race/Immigration
Economy/Economic situation
The Issues Agenda
Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013
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9%
10%
10%
12%
12%
13%
14%
23%
30%
39%
45%
8%
10%
13%
14%
11%
14%
15%
24%
31%
33%
47%
Defence/Foreign
Housing
Poverty/Inequality
Inflation/Prices
Pensions/Benefits
Education/Schools
Crime/Law & order
NHS/Hospitals
Unemployment
Race/Immigration
Economy/Economic situation
In the marginals? Hello Nigel!
Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
All GB
Marginal seats
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Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
But issues are shifting away from the economy….
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
Unemployment
NHS
Crime/
Law & Order
Economy
Race / immigration
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Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Rising concern about inequality and our personal financial situation
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
Cameron becomes
PM
Prices/Inflation
Poverty/inequality
Low pay/fair wages One third (34%)
mention one of the
three issues
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-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Ju
n-9
7S
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De
c-9
7M
ar-
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Ju
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De
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Ju
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De
c-9
9M
ar-
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Ju
n-0
0S
ep
-00
De
c-0
0M
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Ju
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1S
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De
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1M
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Ju
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De
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Ju
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c-0
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Ju
n-0
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-04
De
c-0
4M
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Ju
n-0
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De
c-0
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Ju
n-0
6S
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-06
De
c-0
6M
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07
Ju
n-0
7S
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7D
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7M
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08
Ju
n-0
8S
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8D
ec-0
8M
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09
Ju
n-0
9S
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9D
ec-0
9M
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10
Ju
n-1
0S
ep-1
0D
ec-1
0M
ar-
11
Ju
n-1
1S
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-11
De
c-1
1M
ar-
12
Ju
n-1
2S
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-12
De
c-1
2M
ar-
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Ju
n-1
3S
ep
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De
c-1
3M
ar-
14
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46
-56 -48
+23
Economic Optimism reaches near-record levels
Ind
ex
(g
et
be
tte
r m
inu
s g
et
wo
rse)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+23
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But few think it has benefited them
As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy has grown by about 1.5% compared to the same time last
year. What impact, if any, do you feel this growth in the economy has had on you and your family’s standard of living so far?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th- 11th November 2013
Don’t know
3%
11%
36%
48%
1%
A great deal
None at all
14%
84%
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A better future no longer seems so certain
Base: 985 British adults aged 15+, 5-25 April 2013
Q. “To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will have had a better or worse life
than your parents’ generation, or will it have been about the same?”
Source: Ipsos MORI
32%
29%
20%
14%
4% 1%
Much better
About the same
Much worse
Generations
Better
%
Worse
%
Generation Y 42 29
Generation X 60 19
Baby Boomers 70 14
Pre-War 79 8
Slightly better
Slightly worse
61%
18%
Don’t know
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As you may know, the government has announced a number of spending cuts to help reduce the national debt.
To what extent, if at all, have you and your family been affected by the cuts so far? And how concerned, if at all,
are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12 months?
Tipping point? Much more worried about cuts to come
than cuts so far
9
23
39
27
21
37
29
12
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
A greatdeal/Veryconcerned
A fairamount/
Fairlyconcerned
Not verymuch/
concerned
Not at all
Affected so far Concerned about effects in next 12 months
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: : 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th- 11th November 2013
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Public’s top investment for growth
Base: 1,442 GB adults 15+, Sep-Oct 2012
40%
20%
14%
8%
5%
4%
5%
3%
Improve road infrastructure
Improve rail infrastructure
Improve/extend high speed b/band
Increase air capacity
Build a new high speed rail line
None of these
Don't know
Q. The Government is trying to boost the economy and is considering major
infrastructure investment. Which one of these, if any, do you think is the best way of
boosting the economy?
Source: Ipsos MORI for HS2 Action Alliance
Build more homes
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Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that there is a housing crisis in Britain?
Strongly agree
36%
15%
44%
Tend to disagree
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagree
18% 80%
3%
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12-14 January 2013 Source: Evening Standard/Ipsos MORI
8 in 10 Brits agree is a housing crisis
3%
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Disagree “there is
enough affordable
housing available to buy
or rent in my local area”
Agree “more new homes
need to be built in my
local area”
Source: Evening Standard/Ipsos MORI Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12-14 January 2013
36%
Public not always consistent
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But what can Government do anyway?
Base: 985 British adults aged 15+, 5-25 April 2013
Q. “How confident, if at all, are you that the current government has the right policies to
deal with the problems facing the housing market?”
Source: Ipsos MORI/JRRT
1%
19%
42%
32%
6%
Very confident
Not at all confident
Tenure
Confident
%
Not confident
%
Owners 23 69
Mortgage 18 78
Social
renters
18 80
Private
renters
19 76 Not very confident
20%
74%
Fairly confident
Don’t know
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The political state of
play
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Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Labour’s lead in decline….
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ju
n-1
0
Aug
-10
Oct-1
0
Dec-1
0
Feb-1
1
Apr-1
1
Ju
n-1
1
Aug
-11
Oct-1
1
Dec-1
1
Fe
b-1
2
Apr-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Aug
-12
Oct-1
2
Dec-1
2
Feb-1
3
Apr-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Aug
-13
Oct-1
3
Dec-1
3
Feb-1
4
37%
13%
31%
11%
June-Dec 2010:
Avg. -1.5pt Lab lead
Jan ’11-Mar ‘12:
Avg. 4pt Lab lead
April ’12-April’13:
Avg. 10pt Lab lead
May ‘13 – Mar ‘14:
Avg. 6 pt Lab lead
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Some challenges
for the
Conservatives
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Challenges facing the Conservatives - 1) “biased” system
In 2005, Tony Blair won 36% of the vote and an overall majority
of 64 seats
In 2010, David Cameron won 37% of the vote and was 20 seats
short of a majority
If the Conservatives and Labour each had 33.4% of the vote,
Labour would win 307 seats and the Conservatives would win
254 seats
Labour can win an overall majority with a lead of 2.8 percentage
points, the Conservatives need an 11.1 point lead
AND
Only two governments since 1900 have increased their vote
share after more than two years in office (1951 and 1955)
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40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Conservative advantage in turnout going away
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
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Base: c. 240-300 2010 Conservative voters adults each month. Based on all not all certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2. The rise of UKIP
Current voting intentions each month (all expressing an opinion) among those who said they voted
Conservative in 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ja
n-1
2
Feb-1
2
Ma
r-12
Apr-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Apr-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct-1
3
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Feb-1
4
Labour
Liberal Democrat
UKIP
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Base: c. 240-300 2010 Conservative voters adults each month. Based on all not all certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Among 2010 Conservative voters who are switching – where to?
Current voting intentions each month (all expressing an opinion) among those who said they voted
Conservative in 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ja
n-1
2
Feb-1
2
Ma
r-12
Apr-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Apr-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct-1
3
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Feb-1
4
Labour
Liberal Democrat
UKIP
%
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3. The Conservatives are still the most disliked party
Which of these statements come closest to your view of the Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat/United
Kingdom Independence party?
% dislike party
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Especially among younger women
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”*
*All certain to vote
31 30 31
24 25
33
39 36
33
48 48
36
10 9 9 9 11 11
6
14
19
4 7
13
18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+
Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP
Men Women
Base 4, 180 British adults 18+, January – August 2013
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And anywhere outside the South
37%
28%
12%
15%
8%
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The north is very red
26%
47%
8%
12% 7%
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Three challenges
for Labour
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1) Incumbency for new governments
Opposition parties rarely elected with an overall
majority after single parliament out of office
Only 1895,1924, 1931
Successive hung Parliaments – only once
(1910) since 1832
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Government lead in the polls – one year out
2015
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
One year out
In 6 out of 9 elections since the
War when one party had a
narrow poll lead one year out,
THE OTHER PARTY WON
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Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
2. Credibility. Ed’s approval ratings are low
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
Version 1 | Internal Use © Ipsos MORI
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
Like Hague and IDS low….
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
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And the Conservatives hold the mantle of economic
credibility Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
Democrats or some other party?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ju
n-9
9S
ep
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Dec-9
9M
ar-0
0Ju
n-0
0S
ep
-00
Dec-0
0M
ar-0
1Ju
n-0
1S
ep
-01
Dec-0
1M
ar-0
2Ju
n-0
2S
ep
-02
Dec-0
2M
ar-0
3Ju
n-0
3S
ep
-03
Dec-0
3M
ar-0
4Ju
n-0
4S
ep
-04
Dec-0
4M
ar-0
5Ju
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5S
ep
-05
Dec-0
5M
ar-0
6Ju
n-0
6S
ep
-06
Dec-0
6M
ar-0
7Ju
n-0
7S
ep
-07
Dec-0
7M
ar-0
8Ju
n-0
8S
ep
-08
Dec-0
8M
ar-0
9Ju
n-0
9S
ep
-09
Dec-0
9M
ar-1
0Ju
n-1
0S
ep
-10
Dec-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-1
1S
ep
-11
Dec-1
1M
ar-1
2Ju
n-1
2S
ep
-12
Dec-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
n-1
3S
ep
-13
Dec-1
3M
ar-1
4
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And the Conservatives hold the mantle of economic
credibility Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
Democrats or some other party?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP
2 2 0
10
20
30
40
50
Ju
n-9
9S
ep
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Dec-9
9M
ar-0
0Ju
n-0
0S
ep
-00
Dec-0
0M
ar-0
1Ju
n-0
1S
ep
-01
Dec-0
1M
ar-0
2Ju
n-0
2S
ep
-02
Dec-0
2M
ar-0
3Ju
n-0
3S
ep
-03
Dec-0
3M
ar-0
4Ju
n-0
4S
ep
-04
Dec-0
4M
ar-0
5Ju
n-0
5S
ep
-05
Dec-0
5M
ar-0
6Ju
n-0
6S
ep
-06
Dec-0
6M
ar-0
7Ju
n-0
7S
ep
-07
Dec-0
7M
ar-0
8Ju
n-0
8S
ep
-08
Dec-0
8M
ar-0
9Ju
n-0
9S
ep
-09
Dec-0
9M
ar-1
0Ju
n-1
0S
ep
-10
Dec-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-1
1S
ep
-11
Dec-1
1M
ar-1
2Ju
n-1
2S
ep
-12
Dec-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
n-1
3S
ep
-13
Dec-1
3M
ar-1
4
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Labour picking up many LibDems – but not so many
Tory switchers
Base: 2,354 Labour supporters certain to vote, Jan – Dec 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2013 Labour vote
2010 Labour
2010 LibDem
2010 Con
2010 Other
2010 DNV/too young/etc
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Finally, although Ed Miliband won the battle of the conference
policies, after the Budget, who will win the war?
Which party, if any, do you trust most to…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th November 2013
36%
23%
28%
24%
31%
27%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
Grow the economy
Reduce you and your family’s cost of
living
Ensure that you and your family benefits from a
growing economy
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
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Wild card
Independence referendum
35
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention
Base: All (1,001); all certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
Yes 29%
No 55%
Undecided 16%
All voters
Yes 32%
No 57%
Undecided 11%
Certain to vote
36
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45% Scots who…
may not vote (22%)
will vote but are undecided (9%)
will vote but may change their vote (14%)
37
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brand logo
here Long-term trend yes
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
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What’s happening in
the charity sector?
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Thinking back over the past 3 years would you say in general your views
towards charities have become...
What’s happening in the charity sector….
Base: All GB Adults (1035) Fieldwork 11-14th Jan 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI/NPC
14%
17%
42%
14%
9% 2%
Don’t know
A lot more positive
A little more positive
Neither/nor
A little more negative
A lot more negative
Version 1 | Internal Use © Ipsos MORI
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
“On a scale of 0-10 how much trust and confidence do you have in charities?”
“ I am going to read out some different types of people. For each, please tell me
whether you trust the to tell the truth or not.”
Trust is not in crisis…
Base: 1,000 British adults 16+ Source: Ipsos MORI
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Doctors
Clergymen/priests
Charities
Politicians generally
Journalists
Version 1 | Internal Use © Ipsos MORI
Overall, how important a role do you think charities play in society today?
Increasingly essential to our society…
Base: Adults aged 18+ in England and Wales – 2012 (1,142); 2010 (1,150); 2008 (1,008) and 2003 (1,001) Source: Ipsos MOR/Charity Commission
* Option changed to ‘essential’ for 2008 and 2010 from ‘extremely important’ in 2005
+ Option changed to ‘fairly important’ for 2008 and 2010 from ‘quite important’ in 2005
29
32
30
37
34
40
37
39
32
24
29
20
3
3
3
2
1
0.5
*
1
1
1
2005
2008
2010
2012
% Essential* % Very important % Fairly important+
% Not very important % Not at all important % Don't know
Version 1 | Internal Use © Ipsos MORI
Which, if any, of the following, do you think are the main things that charities
are doing wrong? (top 9)
What do charities get wrong?
Base: All GB Adults (1035) Fieldwork 11-14th Jan 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI/NPC
42%
36%
29%
29%
26%
23%
15%
14%
11%
Spend too much money on executive salaries
Not transparent about spending
Spend too much money abroad
Too much pressure on people to donate
Too much money on running costs
Delivering public services that state should
Behave like a profit-making business
You never see the benefits of your donation
Too much money on employee salaries
Those who are
more negative
about charities in
last 3 years…
Spend too much money on executive salaries
Not transparent about spending
Spend too much money abroad
Too much pressure on people to donate
Too much money on running costs
Delivering public services that state should
Behave like a profit-making business
You never see the benefits of your donation
Too much money on employee salaries
49%
36%
Version 1 | Internal Use © Ipsos MORI
2%
5% 7%
28%
42%
16%
More than an MP on
£66,00 per year
The same as an MP on
£66,00 per year
Less than an MP on
£66,000 per year
I don’t think the chief executive
should be paid at all
I don’t have a strong view on
what charity CEOs are paid
Don’t know
Which of the following best describes how much you believe that the chief
executive of a charity should be paid?
Should charity CEOs be paid more or less than MPs?
Base: All GB Adults (1035) Fieldwork 11-14th Jan 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI/NPC
52% of higher social
grades say charity
CEOs should be paid
same/more
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Why do you trust [charity] less than others?
Lack of information on spend top reason for lack of
trust for decade…
Base: Respondents mentioning a charity/charity type – 2012 (62); 2010 (409); 2008 (419); 2005 (214) Source: Ipsos MOR/Charity Commission
Because I don’t know how they spend their money
Because I have heard bad stories about them
Because they are big
Money lost through corruption/open to abuse/ doesn’t get to end cause
Because they are international
6%
12%
16%
20%
31%
6%
12%
14%
21%
30%
5%
13%
9%
18%
35%
7%
11%
14%
21%
36%
Top five mentions only 2005 2008 2010 2012
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Which one, if any, of these qualities is most important to your trust and confidence in
charities overall?
And reflects increasing concern about proportion
going to end cause?
Base: All respondents – 2012 (1,142), 2010 (1,150), 2008 (1,008), 2005 (1,001) Source: Ipsos MOR/Charity Commission
43%
31%
13%
9%
3%
1%
42%
31%
15%
8%
3%
3%
32%
35%
8%
5%
2%
30%
27%
11%
9%
1%
Ensure reasonable proportion of donations get to end cause
Make a positive difference to cause they work for
Ensure fundraisers are honest and ethical
Be well managed
Make independent decisions to further the cause
they work for
Don’t know
2005 2008 2010 2012
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Which, if any, of the following, are roles that you think charities should perform in society? And
which of the below do you think that charities spend most of their time doing?
There are gaps between what charities should be doing vs. what
they are doing…
Source: Ipsos MORI/NPC
56
51
47
44
32
11
35
55
37
29
24
16
Helping communities
Raising money for good causes
Raising awareness of important issues in society
Encouraging people to volunteer
Lobbying government to change law or policy
Running a service that is currently run by the state
Should perform in society Spend most of their time doing
Base: All GB Adults (1035) Fieldwork 11-14th Jan 2014
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In conclusion...
•Cost of living/recovery remains key…
•Public fearful about the future for services – highlighting shovel ready solutions important for government
•2015-16 settlement is THE problem….
•Scottish referendum – profound implications either way
•Election is highly uncertain – precedents point in different ways
•No sign of anti-politics feeling rubbing off on you but want to hear what you are doing (and spending)
•Good luck
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Thank you [email protected] | +44 20 7347 3000
March 2014
© Ipsos MORI