ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Department of Statisticsstats747/ONE_News_Colmar_Brunton... · ONE...

ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll

18-22 May 2013

Attention: Television New Zealand

Contact: (04) 913-3000

Release date: 26 May 2013

Level One, 6-10 The Strand

PO Box 33690 Takapuna Auckland 0740

Ph: (09) 919-9200

Level 9, Legal House

101 Lambton Quay PO Box 3622, Wellington 6011

Ph: (04) 913-3000

www.colmarbrunton.co.nz

ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll -

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Contents

Contents .......................................................................................................................................................... 3

Methodology summary ................................................................................................................................... 4

Summary of results .......................................................................................................................................... 5

Key political events .......................................................................................................................................... 6

22 April – 22 May 2013 ....................................................................................................................................... 6

Question order and wording ............................................................................................................................ 8

Likelihood to vote ............................................................................................................................................... 8

Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 8

Party vote ........................................................................................................................................................... 8

Electorate vote ................................................................................................................................................... 8

Preferred Prime Minister .................................................................................................................................... 8

Economic outlook ............................................................................................................................................... 8

Party vote ........................................................................................................................................................ 9

Electorate vote .............................................................................................................................................. 11

Preferred Prime Minister ............................................................................................................................... 13

Economic outlook .......................................................................................................................................... 15

Impact of the Budget on personal circumstances........................................................................................... 17

Whether the Government is doing enough to keep housing affordable......................................................... 18

Intervention in the electricity industry .......................................................................................................... 19

Government provision of food for children in low-decile schools .................................................................. 20

Parliamentary seat entitlement ..................................................................................................................... 21

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement ................................................................................ 22


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Methodology summary

CLIENT: Television New Zealand.

RELEASED: Sunday 26 May 2013.

POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from 18-22 May 2013.

TARGET POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters.

SAMPLE POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters who live in households that have a landline

telephone.

SAMPLE SELECTION: Nationwide random digit dialling of landline telephones using stratified

random probability sampling to ensure the sample includes the correct

proportion of people in urban and rural areas. Interviewers ask to speak to

the person in each household aged 18 years or over with the next birthday.

When required, multiple calls are made to reach that person.

SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,011 eligible voters.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points, expressed at

the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a simple random

sample of 1,000 eligible voters.

INTERVIEW METHOD: Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing).

WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Statistics New Zealand

population counts for age, gender, household size and ethnic identification.

REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been

rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 5%, which

are reported to 1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been

rounded up or down to whole numbers except those less than 1%, which

are reported to 1 decimal place.

METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997.

NOTE: The data does not take into account the effects of non-voting and therefore cannot be used to

predict the outcome of an election.

Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support.

The results are therefore only indicative of trends in party support, and it would be misleading to report

otherwise.

Publication or reproduction of the results of this poll must be acknowledged as the “ONE News Colmar

Brunton Poll”.


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Summary of results

PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE

National Party 49% Up 6%-points from 13-17 April 2013

Labour Party 33% Down 3%-points

Green Party 9% Down 4%-points

NZ First 4% Up 1%-point

Conservative Party 2% Steady

Māori Party 1% Steady

Mana Party 1% Up 1%-point

United Future 1% Steady

PARTY SUPPORT – ELECTORATE VOTE

National Party 49% Up 4%-points from 13-17 April 2013

Labour Party 38% Down 3%-points

Green Party 6% Steady

NZ First 3% Up 1%-point

Māori Party 2% Down 1%-point

Conservative Party 1% Steady

ACT Party 1% Steady

United Future 1% Down 1%-point

UNDECIDED VOTERS

Party Vote 12% Steady from 13-17 April 2013

Electorate Vote 14% Down 1%-point

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

John Key 42% Up 3%-points from 13-17 April 2013

David Shearer 12% Down 3%-points

Winston Peters 4% Up 1%-point

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Optimism 55% Up 5%-points from 13-17 April 2013

Pessimism 26% Down 5%-points

The results shown on this page, and the changes identified over time, are reported to the nearest whole

number. More detailed results are provided in the body of this report.


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Key political events

22 April – 22 May 2013

The Green and Labour Parties jointly announced a new policy that proposes to set up NZ Power, a Crown entity that would be the sole buyer of wholesale electricity. The policy’s aim is to regulate electricity prices in New Zealand.

The Green and Labour Parties announcement of their electricity policy led to a temporary suspension of the Government’s $1.7billion share offer in Mighty River Power.

Prime Minister John Key, and several other politicians paid tribute to the armed forces by attending ANZAC Day parades around the country.

Mana Party leader Hone Harawira was accused of being absent from Parliament for 49 of the 120 sitting days since the 2011 election. Other politicians noted that he has only made two speeches and asked one question to a Government Minister during that time period.

The Government announced a new procurement scheme that will make it easier for smaller, local firms to participate in the government procurement process. The new scheme will emphasise best value for money over lower upfront costs.

Paul Foster-Bell was named as National’s newest MP replacing Jackie Blue. Dr Blue took up the role of the Equal Employment Opportunities Commissioner. Mr Foster-Bell resigned from his position with Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

National Party MP Tim Groser lost his bid to become the head of the World Trade Organisation. It was reported that at least $250,000 had been spent on flights during Mr Groser’s campaign.

The Government confirmed it would send representatives to attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting to be held in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Some Commonwealth countries have boycotted the meeting due to human rights issues in Sri Lanka.

The New Zealand Government is opening up 190,000 square km of waters off the North Island’s west coast and off the South Island’s east coast for oil and gas exploration. The Green Party are condemning the decision, but the Government claim that it will increase employment and revenue.

Parliament considered Hone Harawira’s member’s bill that is aimed at providing food to children in low decile schools. The bill is intended to tackle child hunger and child poverty in New Zealand.

The Labour Party proposed legislative amendments that would see requirements for teachers in Charter schools be fully qualified and registered. Currently, the Māori party hold the deciding vote in the Charter schools legislation.

Labour Party MP Parekura Horomia’s death has triggered a by-election for an Ikaroa-Rāwhiti electorate. The Māori and Mana Parties have indicated that they will contest the seat against Labour.

The Government proposed amendments to the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) Act so that GCSB can carry out surveillance on New Zealanders on behalf of the Police, the Defence Force and SIS. Opposition parties claimed that the National Government have given the GCSB too much power.

The Government announced a national restructure of the Department of Conservation. The restructure will include 72 job losses at DOC, which is fewer than the 140 that were first expected.

Solid Energy announced that it will refocus on its coal mining business, which could mean further job cuts in the company. The company has incurred over $400 million of debt over the past year.

National Party MP Aaron Gilmore resigned after a boisterous night at a hotel in Hanmer Springs that saw Mr Gilmore have an altercation with a waiter. His dinner guests’ account of the evening differed from Mr Gilmore’s. Mr Gilmore gave a public apology, but later announced that he would resign.

The Government announced a controversial deal with Sky City in Auckland. It is reported that Sky City is set to spend $402 million to build a national convention centre, which National claims will bring jobs and tourism into the country. As part of the deal, the Government will also extend Sky City’s gambling licence to allow for 230 more pokie machines, 40 gaming tables and other concessions. Opposition parties have accused the Government of “back-room” deals with Sky City.


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Finance Minister Bill English presented Budget 2013. Mr English reconfirmed that the Government is on track to return to surplus in two years.

The Government announced that it will provide subsidies to local community organisations and charities for social housing projects. In addition, the Government said they plan to add 3,000 bedrooms to existing houses, and build 500 more homes on Housing New Zealand properties.

Details of 34 WINZ beneficiaries were mistakenly emailed to another claimant. Labour's social development spokeswoman Jacinda Ardern says the privacy breach was preventable and it shows that a full investigation of WINZ processes should be undertaken.

Television New Zealand journalist Shane Taurima announced that he will be seeking Labour's selection for the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election. Mr Taurima is currently the head of Māori and Pacific Programming at TVNZ.

The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security Paul Neazor reported that the GCSB has been cleared of illegal spying on 88 New Zealand citizens. The claim of illegal spying stemmed from Cabinet Secretary Rebecca Kitteridge's report on the bureau's compliance with legislation.


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Question order and wording

Likelihood to vote

“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”

NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party

support analysis.

Introduction

“Under MMP you get two votes.

One is for a political party and is called a party vote.

The other is for your local MP and is called an electorate vote.”

Party vote

“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party.

Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

Electorate vote

“Now thinking about your other vote, the Electorate Vote for your local MP. When you choose your local MP,

which party, if any, is this candidate likely to come from?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which party, if any, are they most likely to come from?”

Preferred Prime Minister

“Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime

Minister?”

IF NONE

“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

Economic outlook

“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a

worse state?”


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Party vote

“Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

15-19 Sept

2012 27-31 Oct

2012 24-28 Nov

2012 9-13 Feb

2013 13-17 Apr

2013 18-22 May

2013

Don’t know 6% 8% 6% 7% 7% 8%

Refused 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 4%

TOTAL 8% 11% 9% 10% 12% 12%

Base (n=) 1,008 1,009 1,011 1,026 1,009 1,011

Based on Eligible New Zealand Voters.

15-19 Sept

2012 27-31 Oct

2012 24-28 Nov

2012 9-13 Feb

2013 13-17 Apr

2013 18-22 May

2013

National Party 45% 45% 44% 49% 43% 49%

Labour Party 34% 32% 35% 33% 36% 33%

Green Party 12% 12% 13% 11% 13% 9%

NZ First 1.8% 4.9% 3.6% 3.9% 3.0% 3.6%

Conservative Party 2.0% 1.0% 1.3% 0.9% 1.7% 1.7%

Māori Party 2.9% 2.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3%

Mana 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 1.2%

United Future 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.7%

ACT Party 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%

Other 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 1.1%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 101%*

Base (n=) 859 856 858 875 835 849

Based on Probed Party Supporters. *Total does not sum to 100% due to rounding.


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Electorate vote

“Now thinking about your other vote, the Electorate Vote for your Local MP. When you choose your local MP,

which party, if any, is this candidate likely to come from?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which party, if any, are they most likely to come from?”

15-19 Sept

2012 27-31 Oct

2012 24-28 Nov

2012 9-13 Feb

2013 13-17 Apr

2013 18-22 May

2013

Don’t know 8% 10% 10% 9% 12% 11%

Refused 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%

TOTAL 10% 12% 12% 11% 15% 14%

Base (n=) 1,008 1,009 1,011 1,026 1,009 1,011

Based on Eligible New Zealand Voters

15-19 Sept

2012 27-31 Oct

2012 24-28 Nov

2012 9-13 Feb

2013 13-17 Apr

2013 18-22 May

2013

National Party 46% 44% 43% 45% 45% 49%

Labour Party 39% 38% 44% 41% 41% 38%

Green Party 6% 9% 6% 8% 6% 6%

NZ First 1.6% 2.7% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 2.8%

Māori Party 2.3% 2.2% 0.9% 1.2% 2.5% 1.8%

Conservative Party 2.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7%

ACT Party 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6%

United Future 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 1.3% 0.5%

Mana 0.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%

Other 1.3% 0.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

TOTAL 100% 100% 99%* 99%* 100% 100%

Base (n=) 858 832 816 856 808 834

Based on Probed Party Supporters. *Total does not sum to 100% due to rounding.


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Preferred Prime Minister

“Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime

Minister?”

IF NONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

15-19 Sept

2012 27-31 Oct

2012 24-28 Nov

2012 9-13 Feb

2013 13-17 Apr

2013 18-22 May

2013

John Key 44% 42% 39% 44% 39% 42%

David Shearer 12% 11% 15% 15% 15% 12%

Winston Peters 4% 6% 6% 5% 3% 4%

Helen Clark 1% 0.9% 1% 2% 1% 2%

Russel Norman 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%

Phil Goff 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7%

David Cunliffe 0.9% 1% 2% 2% 0.4% 0.5%

Steven Joyce 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5%

Shane Jones 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4%

Grant Robertson 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4%

Metiria Turei 1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 1% 0.4%

Pita Sharples 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%

Hone Harawira 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%

Jacinda Ardern 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3%

Peter Dunne 0.2% 0.1% - - 0.2% 0.2%

Bill English 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% - 0.5% 0.2%

Tariana Turia 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% - 0.2% 0.2%

Don Brash - - - - - 0.1%

Colin Craig - 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Annette King 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

David Parker - - 0.1% - - 0.1%

Nick Smith - - - - - 0.1%

Jim Anderton 0.1% 0.1% - 0.1% - -

John Banks 0.1% 0.2% - - - -

Gerry Brownlee 0.2% - 0.1% - - -

Michael Cullen - - 0.1% - - -

Rodney Hide 0.1% - - - - -

Andrew Little 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% - -

Trevor Mallard - - - 0.1% - -

John Tamihere - - - 0.1% - -

Other 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3%

Don’t know 24% 22% 24% 22% 26% 25%

None 4% 4% 4% 4% 6% 4%

Refused 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%

TOTAL 101%* 100% 101%* 102%* 100% 101%*

Base (n=) 1,008 1,009 1,011 1,026 1,009 1,011

Based on Eligible New Zealand Voters. *Total does not sum to 100% due to rounding.


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Economic outlook

“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a

worse state?”

15-19 Sept

2012 27-31 Oct

2012 24-28 Nov

2012 9-13 Feb

2013 13-17 Apr

2013 18-22 May

2013

Better 41% 44% 41% 48% 50% 55%

Same 23% 22% 24% 22% 19% 19%

Worse 36% 34% 34% 30% 31% 26%

TOTAL 100% 100% 99%* 100% 100% 100%

Base (n=) 1,008 1,009 1,011 1,026 1,009 1,011



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Impact of the Budget on personal circumstances

“The Government delivered its Budget on Thursday. Thinking about your own personal circumstances, does

this Budget leave you better off, about the same, or worse off?”1

26-30 May

2012

18-22 May

2013

Better off 3% 6%

About the same 68% 70%

Worse off 22% 13%

Unsure 7% 11%

TOTAL 100% 100%

Base (n=) 1,005 1,011


More than two thirds of eligible New Zealand voters (70%) believe their own personal circumstances remain

about the same following the Budget. Thirteen percent of eligible New Zealand voters believe they are worse

off; this result is significantly lower than immediately following the 2012 Budget announcement.

Those more likely than average (70%) to say their personal circumstances remain about the same are:

those aged 55 years or over (77%)

National Party supporters (80%).

Those more likely than average (13%) to say they are worse off are:

Labour Party supporters (19%).

1 Approximately half of the time respondents were asked, “The Government delivered its Budget on Thursday. Thinking about your own personal circumstances, does this budget leave you worse off, about the same or better off?”


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Whether the Government is doing enough to keep

housing affordable

“Do you think the Government is doing enough to keep housing affordable in New Zealand?”

Total Eligible New

Zealand Voters

Yes 30%

No 62%

Unsure 9%

TOTAL 101%*

Base (n=) 1,011


Sixty-two percent of eligible New Zealand voters think the Government is not doing enough to keep housing

affordable in New Zealand, and less than a third (30%) think the Government is doing enough.

Those more likely than average (30%) to think the Government is doing enough are:



Those more likely than average (62%) to think the Government is not doing enough are:

Labour Party supporters (85%)

Green Party supporters (86%).


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Intervention in the electricity industry

“The Labour and Green Parties say that power prices have been increasing at an unacceptable rate, so they

plan to intervene in the electricity industry.

Their policy is to set up a new agency called ‘NZ Power’. This agency would buy the electricity generated in

New Zealand, and aim to sell it to power companies at lower rates than at present.

The Labour and Green Parties say this policy will encourage more competition among power companies and

lead to lower power prices. Those who oppose the policy say it will not encourage competition or lower prices.

Do you support the policy to intervene in the electricity industry?”

Total Eligible New

Zealand Voters

Yes 57%

No 37%

Unsure 6%

TOTAL 100%

Base (n=) 1,011


Fifty-seven percent of eligible New Zealand voters support intervention in the electricity industry, and 37% do

not.

Those more likely than average (57%) to support the policy are:

those aged 18 to 34 years (68%)

those who live in households with five or more adults (80%)

those living in households with an annual household income between $30,001 and $70,000 (64%)



Those more likely than average (37%) to oppose the policy are:

men (44%)

those living in high income households, with an annual household income over $100,000 (50%)



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Government provision of food for children in low-

decile schools

“Do you think the government should provide food to children in poorer, low-decile schools?”

Total Eligible New

Zealand Voters

Yes 70%

No 26%

Unsure 4%

TOTAL 100%

Base (n=) 1,011


Over two thirds of eligible New Zealand voters (70%) support government provision of food to children in low-

decile schools, and one quarter (26%) oppose it.

Those more likely than average (70%) to support government provision of food to children in low-decile

schools are:

those aged 18 to 34 years (84%)

those with children at home (76%)



Those more likely than average (26%) to oppose government provision of food to children in low-decile

schools are:


those with no children living at home (32%)



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Parliamentary seat entitlement

The following table shows the parliamentary seat entitlement according to the results reported in this poll and

using the St Laguë method (for details, please see the next page). This table assumes that the Mana Party,

United Future New Zealand and ACT win one electorate seat each as per the 2011 General Election. Also, it

assumes that the Māori Party wins 3 electorate seats as per the 2011 General Election.

* Indicates one (or more) overhang seats

Number of seats

National Party

62

Labour Party

42

Green Party

11

Māori Party

3*

ACT Party

1*

Mana

2

United Future

1

TOTAL

122


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Method for calculating parliamentary seat

entitlement

The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for

each party into the number of seats they get in Parliament.

It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least

one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral

Commission.

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