One flight many apps - Business Finland · One flight many apps Drone Market & Opportunities Tero...
Transcript of One flight many apps - Business Finland · One flight many apps Drone Market & Opportunities Tero...
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Peter van BlyenburghUVS [email protected]
uvs-international.org
www.rpas-regulations.com
Back to the future – we have seen this before
1993Window to the
world ofcomputers
2015 Window to thephysical world
© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved
What are drones?
Drones
RPASRemotely PilotedAircraft System
UAVUnmanned Aerial
Vehicle
UASUnmanned Aerial
System
Market – key take-outs
• Total expected new market growth > $100 bn in 10 years
• The services related to drones are expected to exceed the value of equipment
• Today drones are primarily used for military, but civilian applications will drive the market growth
• The regulation allowing civilian applications is being prepared on global, European and national levels and will be established between 2015 and 2025
© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved
Market phase
• Market is still in early phase• Value chains not yet formed• Most companies streched
accross value chain• Market timing is driven by the
schedule of regulation• VC investments have been
arising rapidly over last years, yet remain at relatively low level
• Civilian RPAS companies are mostly yet early stage
© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved
Market phase – Attempt to classify companies
© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved
Chris McCann in medium.comAug 13, 2015
medium.com/@mccannatron/drone-market-ecosystem-map-a8febf0ca8fd
Convergence of industries
Google, Amazon, Project Loon, Titan Aerospace, Sharper Shape and DJI are registered trademarks of their respective owners
Convergence of regimes
UNMANNEDSPACE
UNMANNEDAVIATION
MANNEDSPACE
MANNEDAVIATION
Technologies
Platforms
Services
Av
iati
on
and
Sp
ace
con
ver
gen
ce
Manned and Unmanned Convergence
Law and Regulation
© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved
Competitive borderlines
TraditionalAviation &
Defence
Silicon Valleyand
Startups
National/ EU
Global
© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved
Interesting opportunities
•Target to become Global Category LeadersVertical B2B Applications
•Killer Gadgets & ServicesConsumer
•Possible with a tight collaboration betweenpolicy makers, authorities, and industry
•Tough global competition
SystemicInnovations
From VLOS to BVLOS to Suborbital to SpaceToday Tomorrow 2020 2020-2030
”VLOS Era” ”BVLOS Era” ”Integrated Era” ”Converged Era”
Small drones flying simpleapplications near the pilot. Drones are in isolation.
Many size of drones in differentiated applications. First systemic solutionsstart to emerge.
Systemic innovationsenabled regular integrateddrone ops. Value chainsformed. Category leadersestablished.
Aviation, suborbital, and space converged. Apps and services detached fromunderlying deliverytechnology. Multimodalops supporting many apps.
90% of B2B civ apps areVLOS
>50% of civ apps B2B revenue is from BVLOS.
VLOS and BVLOS termsrendered obsolete, alltraffic integrated. A largepart of civ apps revenuefrom established (global orlocal) category leaders.
Traffic revenues primarily in LE. Service and apprevenues diversified, including global categoryleaders & niche or localSME.
95% of companies are SME 90% of companies are SME, Increasing part of apprevenue is in moreestablished companies(some migrated from otherindustries, some successfulstartups maturing).
Global and local trafficproviders emerge.Separation of traffic and apps and services.
Majority of traffic and opsprovided by LE,Service innovationcontinues in SME & startups.
Source: Sharper Shape Drone Industry Analysis, 2015© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved
© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved 17
Cost of flight for varying survey ranges
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
COST OF FLIGHT FOR VARYING SURVEY RANGES
Survey range per flight (miles)
Rel
ativ
e co
st (
low
er is
bet
ter)
BVLOS
VLOS
Cost of drone flight survey is dependent on:• Equipment cost• Equipment life cycle• Equipment remaining value• Equipment maintenance cycle• Equipment maintenance cost• Equipment commissioning costs• Fuel/battery cost• Range of flight operation• Number of operations from one base• Duration of transport between bases• Average flight speed• Duration of preflight preparations• Duration of preflight checks• Duration of postflight checks• Flight productivity• Flight hours per day• Work hours per flight day• Flight planning and management costs• Field personnel accommodation
or travel costs• Transport vehicle costs• Insurance costs
This is a simplified model based on practical exprience.
Small variations in the costs are due to how exactly the flightoperations fill the whole day (assuming fixed length work days).
Flying in VLOS is over 4 times more expensive than BVLOS for linear infra asset inspection.
© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved 18
Elimination of barriers – open opportunities
Globallyharmonizedregulation
In progress: EU Commission, EASA, ICAO, JARUS, EU MS,FAA
Technology gaps
C2 links
Sense and Avoid
Consensuson the
concept of operations
NASA, Google, Amazon
Startups
(Aviation Industry)
The barriersare all interconnected.
Solutions need to beinterconnected.
Understanding themarket requiresinherently globalperspective.
Quick nationalimplementation of themissing pieces will givethe local industry trulyglobal advantage.
The opportunity for systemic innovation ona global scale requiresdecisive and harmonizedsteps throughout allregimes.
© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved 19
Finland’s advantages and opportunities
Unique BVLOS capabilities
Non-congested airspaceallows for flexibleairspace use
Excellent collaborationbetween the industryand authorities
Comparatively simplepolicy-makingenvironment
Well-established position in the relevantinternational and EU level rule-makingorganizations
Regulator and policy-makerscommitment to business
Wireless communication
Electronics, optoelectronics
Big data analytics, …
Aviation relatedindustries
Good base of relevant technologycompanies
No barriers to becomethe first to implementcomplete concept for integrated drone ops(ahead of globalprogress)
Needs to be aligned withthe global future trends
Requires tightparticipation in theinternational forums: to influence, align and follow
Potential for LE & SME & research collaboration
Needs to be supportedby the highest levelpolitical endorsement & allocation of resources
Opportunity to implement systemicinnovations
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Proposal: Finland the first to adopt UAS Traffic Management (UTM)
In full alignment withthe global inititativessuch as NASA.
Safely enable civilianlow-altitude operationswithin 5 years in near-terms, and
Develop autonomousUAS traffic Management (UTM) to accommodatemassive scale traffic.
© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved 21
What is UTM, why it is needed, and what are the benefits? UTM is desireable:
• Very-low-level operations represent a major part of the short and medium term economic opportunities
• UTM attempts to solve multiparty operation for very-low-level operations
• Enable finer than segregation areasintegration of drones into airspace
• Can start within (vertically and geographically) segregated areas, making it compatible with the existingaviation, laws, rules, regulation and practices; and can be piloted today
• Shall enable tight integration of massive drone traffic by multipleoperators in the same airspace
• Same concept is seen as expandable (in the future) to full integration of dronesin the non-segregated airspace
Amazon view of UTM conceptualimplementation as an example. Googleand NASA propose very similarbut not identical concepts.
It is of utmost importance to align anyUTM activities with the global initiatives.
© 2015 Sharper Shape – All Rights Reserved 22
Roles and policy-making related to UTM
Political
Policy-making
Regulatory
Industry
Decide, endorse, and allocate resources.
Mandate and ensure the alignment of therelevant stakeholders. Remove legal barriersthough future law-setting.
Work together with the industry to implementregulatory and process framework to support theoperations. Set the framework and requirementsfor UTM operations. Ensure fair competitiveenvironment for UTM operators.
Implement, validate and operate UTM solutionsin a NON-MONOPOLISTIC arrangement.