On-farm and Off-farm Strategies for Managing Seasonal Hunger · • Multi-stage stratified random...

Evans School Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)Evans School Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

On-farm and Off-farm Strategies for Managing Seasonal Hunger

C. Leigh Anderson, Margaret Beetstra, Pierre Biscaye, Josh Merfeld, Katie Panhorst Harris, & Travis Reynolds

Evans School Policy Analysis & Research Group (EPAR)

Seasonal Hunger and Public Policy: Intersectoral Solutions Needed

Consortium of Universities for Global Health 2016 Research Committee Breakout Session


Presentation Plan

• Defining and Measuring Seasonal Hunger

• Consequences of Seasonal Hunger

• Seasonal and Chronic Hunger in Tanzania and Malawi

• Empirical Results

• Conclusions

http://www.farmafrica.org/kenya/cassava-farming


Defining & Measuring Seasonal Hunger


Defining Seasonal Hunger

• Time period preceding the harvest (Vaitla et al., 2009; Zug, 2006)

• Time after food stocks from previous harvest are exhausted (Mburu

et al., 2015; Milgroom & Giller, 2013; Paxson, 1993)

• Approximately 2-6 months, depending on weather and number of harvests/year (Daie & Woldtsadik, 2015; Hadley et

al., 2007; Hart, 2009; Lambrechts & Barry, 2003; Rademacher-Schulz, 2014)

http://www.cgiar.org/our-strategy/cgiar-research-programs/cgiar-research-program-on-

integrated-systems-humid-tropics/

Defining & Measuring

Seasonal Hunger


Measuring the Seasonally Hungry

• 795 million people globally are hungry (FAO, 2015)

• 70% of the world’s poor live in rural areas (World Bank, 2014)

• Seasonal hunger is likely not just a rural phenomenon

https://www.wfp.org/photos/gallery/burundian-refugees-nyarugusu-tanzania


Seasonal Hunger


Seasonal v. Chronic Hunger

Seasonal v. chronic hunger is driven largely by weather patterns

• Prevalence of severe food insecurity decreases during the rainy season but increases during the dry season (M’Kaibi et al., 2015)

• Food security is sensitive to rainfall fluctuations (Generoso, 2015)

If chronic and seasonal hunger affect different populations and have different drivers, policy solutions may differ

http://www.cimmyt.org/global-maize-research/


Seasonal Hunger


Urban & Rural Seasonality

• Calorie availability changes in both urban and rural areas based on the season (Garrett & Ruel,

1999)

• Food prices are higher in the months preceding the harvest (Vaitla et al., 2009)

• Those living in urban areas are less likely to experience seasonal hunger (Barrett, 1996; Becquey et al.,

2012)

https://www.danchurchaid.org/where-we-work/africa/malawi


Seasonal Hunger


Consequences of Seasonal Hunger


Consequences of Seasonal Hunger

• Eating less (Edeh & Gyimah-Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Patil, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanja et al., 2015; Rademacher-Schulz et al., 2014)

• Eating differently (food substitution) (Daie & Woldtsadik,

2015; Edeh & Gyimah-Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Patil, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanja et al., 2015)

• Agricultural “borrowing”

• Harvest immature crops (Mayanja et al., 2015)

• Prematurely slaughter livestock (Mayanja et al., 2015)

• Financial “borrowing”

• Borrow food or money to buy food (Edeh & Gyimah-Brempong, 2015; Hadley & Patil, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Mayanja et al., 2015; Morris et al., 2013; Zug, 2006)

• Sell assets to purchase food (Mayanja et al., 2015;

Rademacher-Schulz et al., 2014; Zug, 2006)

• Changing household composition (Mayanja et al., 2015)

http://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=7567

Consequences of

Seasonal Hunger


On-Farm Strategies for Reducing Seasonal Hunger

•Off-season crops (Arimond et al., 2011;

Krishnal & Weerahewa, 2014)

•Early-maturing varieties (Herforth, 2010; Keding & Cogill, 2013; Mburu et al., 2015; Powell et al., 2015)

•Crop diversification (Abdalla et al.,

2013; Afifi et al., 2015; Bacon et al., 2014; Devereux, 2009; Wispelwey & Deckelbaum, 2010; Vaitla et al., 2012)

http://www.bioversityinternational.org/trees-for-livelihoods-nutrition/

Consequences of

Seasonal Hunger


Crop Diversity, Dietary Diversity, & Nutritional Outcomes

• Crop diversity is associated with dietary diversity (Benfica & Kilic, 2015; Carletto et al., 2015; Cordero Frison

et al., 2011; Graham et al., 2007; Herforth, 2010; Jones et al., 2014; Keding & Cogill, 2013; Salas & Chen, 2015; Snapp & Fisher, 2015; Tasciotti & Wagner, 2014; Torheim et al., 2004; Wispelwey & Deckelbaum, 2010)

• Dietary diversity is associated with nutritional outcomes (Arimond & Ruel, 2004; Frison et al., 2011; Graham et al.,

2007; Hunter & Fanzo, 2013; Johns & Eyzaguirre, 2006; Kirsten et al., 1998; Torheim et al., 2004)

• Seasonality is associated with nutritional outcomes (Chambers et al., 1981; Devereux et al., 2008; Devereux,

2009; Hillbruner & Egan, 2008; Lambrechts & Barry, 2003; Milgroom & Giller, 2013; Sahn, 1989; Vaitla et al., 2009; Vaitla et al., 2012)

Consequences of

Seasonal Hunger

http://teca.fao.org/technology/african-leafy-vegetables-urban-

supply-and-sustainable-diets-0


Off-Farm Strategies for Reducing Seasonal Hunger

• Income diversification

•Working in a non-agriculture job (Afifi et al., 2015;

Daie & Woldtsadik, 2015; Rademacher-Schulz et al., 2014; Sibhatu et al., 2015a; Zug, 2006)

• Trading labor for money or food (Mayanja et al., 2015; Zug, 2006)

• Temporarily migrating in search of work (Afifi et al., 2015;

Hadley & Patil, 2008; Maxwell, 1996; Rademacher-Schulz et al., 2014)

http://teca.fao.org/technology/african-leafy-vegetables-urban-supply-and-sustainable-diets-0

Consequences of

Seasonal Hunger


Seasonal and Chronic Hunger in Tanzania and Malawi


LSMS-ISA Data

• World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture

• Tanzania National Panel Survey• Panels 2 (2010) and 3 (2012)

• Malawi Integrated Household Panel Survey• Panels 1 (2010) and 2 (2013)

• Panel survey with detailed data collection on:

• Household characteristics

• Agriculture

• Community

• Livestock & Fisheries

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLSMS/Images/3358985-

1340736484150/570x282_woman_man_survey.jpg

Seasonal and Chronic Hunger

in Tanzania and Malawi


LSMS Survey DesignTanzania:

• Multi-stage stratified random sample• Primary sampling unit: enumeration areas (EAs) based on 2002 Census• Random selection of 8 households per EA• Representative at national, urban/rural, and agroecological zone levels

• 3 panels (2 used in analysis)• Panel 2: 3924 households, surveyed between October 2010 and November 2011• Panel 3: 5010 households, surveyed between October 2012 and November 2013• All members of panel households tracked and interviewed

Malawi:

• Two-stage stratified random sample• Primary sampling unit: enumeration areas (EAs) based on 2008 Census• Random selection of 16 households per EA• Representative at national, urban/rural, and regional levels

• 2 panels• Panel 1: 12288 households, including 3247 panel households, surveyed between March 2010 and

March 2011• Panel 2: 4000 households, surveyed between April 2013 and October 2013• All members of panel households tracked and interviewed




Research Questions

In Tanzania and Malawi:

1. Is there seasonal hunger distinct from chronic hunger?

2. Does the prevalence of seasonal hunger differ between urban and rural populations?

3. What explains the variation in seasonal hunger among farmers in these countries?

http://www.cimmyt.org/global-maize-research/




Results

Evans School Policy Analysis and Research Group (EPAR)

Study Regions

Tanzania

Malawi

Tanzania Malawi

% Hungry - Farm 8 (T = 32.1) 63 (T = 20.7)

% Hungry – Non-Farm 5 46

# Hungry - Farm 519,136 1,808,796

# Hungry – Non-Farm 153,131 391,322

# of Poor People 21,959,317* 10,471,805*

% Poor in Population 46.6* 70.9*

# of Rural People 35,808,913 14,006,983

% Rural in Population 69.1 83.9




Tanzania 2012 Hunger by Month

Results


Malawi 2013 Hunger by Month

Results


Hunger Prevalence

Source: LSMS, 2010-2013 Results

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Non-farm

Farm

Non-farm

Farm

Non-farm

Farm

Non-farm

Farm

Mala

wi

2010

Mala

wi

2013

Tanzania

2010

Tanzania

2012

Chronic hunger only Both seasonal and chronic hunger Seasonal hunger only No hunger


To explore the relationship between seasonal hunger and household farm and non-farm activities, we run following model:

𝑆𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙−𝐻𝑢𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑗𝑡 = 𝛼𝑗𝑡 +𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑗𝑡 + 𝑋𝑖𝑗𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑗𝑡

Marg is the Margalef Index, defined as:

𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑔 = (𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑖 − 1)/ln(𝑎𝑖),

where 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑖 is the crop count for household i and 𝑎𝑖 is total land area for household i.

𝑀𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑗𝑡 = 𝛼𝑗𝑡 + 𝐻𝑢𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑗𝑡 + 𝑋𝑖𝑗𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑗𝑡

Methods - Regressions

Results


Regression Results – Seasonal

Hunger (Defined at Household)Malawi Tanzania

b se b se

Margalef index in previous season (planted acres) -0.000 (0.000)

Adult males -0.001 (0.011) 0.005 (0.005)

Adult females -0.020* (0.011) -0.006 (0.006)

Children (age<15) 0.029*** (0.006) 0.006** (0.003)

Age of household head -0.000 (0.001) 0.001*** (0.000)

Male household head -0.107*** (0.027) -0.026** (0.012)

Remittances and gifts (log of total cash received) 0.004* (0.002) -0.001 (0.001)

Acres (log) -0.037*** (0.013) -0.005 (0.005)

Value of crops sold (hundred thousands) -0.011*** (0.004) -0.001** (0.000)

Number of permanent/fruit crops (excluding cassava) 0.014* (0.007) -0.002 (0.004)

Household grows cassava -0.005 (0.032) -0.015 (0.010)

Number of non-farm enterprises operated -0.008 (0.016) 0.013** (0.006)

Number of wage workers 0.069*** (0.008) -0.007 (0.005)

Bovine (count) -0.010* (0.005) -0.002 (0.001)

Goat (count) -0.009*** (0.002) 0.000 (0.001)

Pig (count) -0.005 (0.006) -0.005** (0.002)

Poultry (count) -0.001 (0.001) -0.000 (0.000)

R2 0.197 0.027

N 3876 4664

Results


Malawi Month of First Harvest By Region

Results


Month of first harvest Month of last harvest

b se b se

Seasonal hunger -0.085* (0.046) -0.016 (0.050)

Adult males -0.040 (0.027) -0.026 (0.020)

Adult females -0.001 (0.027) 0.008 (0.027)

Children (age<15) -0.038*** (0.013) -0.027* (0.014)

Age of household head 0.003** (0.001) -0.001 (0.001)

Male household head -0.082* (0.049) -0.004 (0.052)

Acres planted (log) 0.004 (0.028) 0.147*** (0.031)

Crop count -0.355*** (0.023) 0.320*** (0.028)

Number of crops sold -0.193*** (0.035) 0.020 (0.029)

Value of crops sold (hundred thousands) -0.099*** (0.028) -0.027*** (0.008)

Number of permanent/fruit crops -0.029 (0.018) 0.091*** (0.025)

Remittances and gifts (log of total cash received) -0.003 (0.005) 0.007 (0.006)

Number of non-farm enterprises operated 0.043 (0.042) 0.042 (0.049)

Number of wage workers -0.011 (0.020) -0.005 (0.020)

R2 0.284 0.338

N 5021 5015

Malawi Regression Results – Month of

First and Last Harvest

Results


Preliminary Conclusions

Takeaways:

1. Measurement

2. Difference in what is measured (malnutrition v. hunger),

though may be only a temporal distinction

3. Seasonal hunger applies to urban populations also

4. Early harvesting does appear to be a short-run coping

strategy

5. Increasing yield may be a less effective strategy than

smoothing consumption for the seasonally hungry

Conclusions

http://www.bioversityinternational.org/rese

arch-portfolio/production-marketing-of-

bananas-tree-crops/


Evans School Policy Analysis & Research Group (EPAR)

Professor C. Leigh Anderson, Principal Investigator

Professor Travis Reynolds, co-Principal Investigator Margaret Beetstra, Pierre Biscaye, Katie Panhorst Harris, & Josh Merfeld

EPAR uses an innovative student-faculty team model to

provide rigorous, applied research and analysis to

international development stakeholders. Established in

2008, the EPAR model has since been emulated by other UW

schools and programs to further enrich the international

development community and enhance student learning.

Please direct comments or questions about this research to Principal Investigators C. Leigh Anderson and Travis Reynolds at

[email protected].


Summary Statistics - WeightedMalawi Tanzania

Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 2 Wave 3

b/se b/se b/se b/se

Seasonal hunger (excluding chronically hungry) 0.182

(0.012)

0.206

(0.011)

0.014

(0.003)

0.019

(0.004)

Margalef index in previous season (planted acres) 364138.352

(285582.392)

625390.317

(379470.707)

Adult males 1.224 1.378 1.437 1.449

(0.023) (0.022) (0.028) (0.026)

Adult females 1.356 1.466 1.546 1.530

(0.022) (0.023) (0.021) (0.021)

Children (age<15) 2.472 2.480 2.534 2.469

(0.042) (0.048) (0.055) (0.055)

Age of household head 44.074 45.093 48.228 48.354

(0.503) (0.379) (0.474) (0.431)

Male household head 0.776 0.756 0.761 0.760

(0.013) (0.011) (0.012) (0.011)

Acres (log) 0.737 0.874 1.565 1.369

(0.036) (0.038) (0.045) (0.048)

Value of crops sold (hundred thousands) 0.145

(0.019)

0.404

(0.053)

1.871

(0.164)

2.880

(0.219)

Number of permanent/fruit crops 0.583

(0.051)

0.890

(0.053)

1.091

(0.055)

0.996

(0.050)

Remittances and gifts (log of total cash received - MK) 2.774

(0.148)

3.783

(0.141)

0.084

(0.028)

2.544

(0.138)

Number of non-farm enterprises operated 0.213

(0.015)

0.336

(0.021)

0.516

(0.019)

0.522

(0.019)

Number of wage workers 0.877 1.016 0.286 0.741

(0.035) (0.031) (0.017) (0.026)

Bovine (count) 0.195 0.216 1.019 1.174

(0.064) (0.032) (0.101) (0.114)

Goat (count) 1.363 1.263 2.304 2.291

(0.096) (0.096) (0.206) (0.168)

Sheep (count) 0.018 0.030 0.823 0.701

(0.008) (0.010) (0.234) (0.095)

Pig (count) 0.404 0.347 0.281

(0.059) (0.053) (0.041)

Poultry (count) 3.573 3.639 8.158 7.093

(0.196) (0.172) (0.382) (0.365)

Equine (count) 0.000 0.004 0.443

(0.000) (0.003) (0.041)

Observations 1664 2252 2080 2740


Malawi Tanzania

b se b se

Margalef index in previous season (planted acres) -0.000 (0.000)

Adult males -0.002 (0.011) 0.004 (0.008)

Adult females -0.021* (0.012) -0.012 (0.009)

Children (age<15) 0.029*** (0.006) 0.012*** (0.004)

Age of household head -0.000 (0.001) 0.001** (0.001)

Male household head -0.091*** (0.026) -0.072*** (0.020)

Remittances and gifts (log of total cash received) 0.003 (0.002) 0.000 (0.002)

Acres (log) -0.043*** (0.013) -0.000 (0.007)

Value of crops sold (hundred thousands) -0.014*** (0.004) -0.002*** (0.001)

Number of permanent/fruit crops (excluding cassava) 0.008 (0.008) -0.007 (0.007)

Household grows cassava 0.001 (0.032) -0.031* (0.016)

Number of non-farm enterprises operated 0.003 (0.016) -0.012 (0.010)

Number of wage workers 0.085*** (0.007) 0.060*** (0.009)

Bovine (count) -0.011* (0.006) -0.002 (0.002)

Goat (count) -0.013*** (0.003) -0.003*** (0.001)

Pig (count) -0.004 (0.006) -0.010** (0.005)

Poultry (count) -0.001 (0.001) -0.001** (0.000)

R2 0.177 0.082

N 3876 4664

Hunger Defined Dec-Mar


0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

No hunger

Seasonal

Chronic

Both

Percent of maize farmers experiencing postharvest loss of maize, by hunger status

Malawi Tanzania

Postharvest Loss (Dec-Mar)

Results

On-farm and Off-farm Strategies for Managing Seasonal Hunger · • Multi-stage stratified random...

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