OMPETITIVITA’ E DEITO
Transcript of OMPETITIVITA’ E DEITO
COMPETITIVITA’ E DEBITO: UNA RAPPRESENTAZIONE DIVERSA
DELL’ITALIA
Intervento di Marco Fortis (Università Cattolica e Fondazione Edison)
Confindustria Bergamo, 26 febbraio 2014
1 Fondazione Edison
LA COMPETITIVITA’
2 Fondazione Edison
WHAT THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION THINKS ABOUT ITALY’S COMPETITIVENESS
• «Italy's export performance continues to suffer from an unfavourable product specialisation model and the limited ability of Italian firms to grow. Italy's specialization model is very similar to that of emerging markets such as China, with most of the value added in relatively low-tech traditional sectors, mainly due to Italian firms‘ limited innovation capacity» (In-depth review for ITALY, 10 aprile 2013).
Fondazione Edison 3
COME È CAMBIATO IL MADE IN ITALY (MA REHN NON LO SA…)
4
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
Esportazioni nel 1994 (valori in milioni di euro)
Fonte: elaborazione Fondazione Edison su dati Istat
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
Esportazioni nel 2012 (valori in milioni di euro)
Fonte: elaborazione Fondazione Edison su dati Istat
Fondazione Edison
COME È CAMBIATO IL MADE IN ITALY (MA REHN NON LO SA…)
5
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
Esportazioni nel 1994 (valori in milioni di euro)
Fonte: elaborazione Fondazione Edison su dati Istat
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
Esportazioni nel 2012 (valori in milioni di euro)
Fonte: elaborazione Fondazione Edison su dati Istat
Fondazione Edison
6
La bilancia commerciale non energetica extra UE-27 dei principali paesi UE: anno 2012
(miliardi di euro)
Germania 137,9 -75,6 213,5 164,7 13,1
Italia 1,7 -61,8 63,5 41,2 20,3
Francia 9,6 -47,1 56,7 32,7 -2,4
Svezia 16,3 -8,6 24,9 15,6 4,3
Irlanda 21,2 -2,1 23,3 -1,1 3,4
Austria 6,5 -8,0 14,5 8,0 5,9
Finlandia 4,2 -9,3 13,5 6,6 4,3
Spagna -34,7 -41,7 7,0 8,4 0,0
Portogallo -2,7 -6,8 4,1 1,6 2,8
Belgio -4,8 -4,3 -0,5 1,9 -6,6
Grecia -10,5 -7,3 -3,2 -2,7 -0,8
Regno Unito -97,0 -42,6 -54,4 6,0 -27,5
Olanda -128,5 -56,3 -72,2 -38,5 -24,2
TOTALE UE-27 -104,6 -422,5 317,9 255,6 -4,5
Fonte: elaborazione Fondazione Edison su dati Eurostat.
Totale bilancia
commercialeEnergia
Bilancia
commerciale
esclusa
l'energia
di cui:
meccanica e
mezzi di
trasporto
altri manufatti
Fondazione Edison
MORE DEBTS, MORE GROWTH, BUT UNSUSTAINABLE
7 Fondazione Edison
8 Fondazione Edison
THE ACTUAL CRISIS OF THE ITALIAN INDUSTRY ORIGINATED FROM A COLLAPSE OF THE DOMESTIC DEMAND
NOT FROM A LACK OF COMPETITIVENESS ON WORLD MARKETS
9 Fondazione Edison
ITALIAN MANUFACTURING TURNOVER HAS FALLEN BECAUSE OF THE AUSTERITY
10
Austerity effect
Fondazione Edison
THE ITALIAN MANUFACTURING TURNOVER FOR EXPORTS IS GOING BETTER THAN GERMANY’S
11 Fondazione Edison
The “country’s institutional and infrastructural system factors” are the ones that more penalize the Italian economy,
not the entreprises’ competitiveness
Italy’s position in the ranking of the 60 economies covered by the
World Competitiveness Yearbook
Bureaucracy 56
Collected total tax revenues 54
Cost of capital 49
Legal and regulatory framework 55
Parallel economy 48
Distribution infrastructure of goods and services 50
Water transportation 46
Maintenance and development of infrastructure 44
Energy infrastructure 40
Electricity costs for industrial clients 53 Source: IMD, World Competitiveness Yearbook 2013
12 Fondazione Edison
EMERGING COUNTRIES ARE MOVING UP, BUT ITALY’S MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IS STILL THE SECOND IN EUROPE
AND THE FIFTH IN THE WORLD
13 Fondazione Edison
14 Fondazione Edison
2012 (billions of US dollars)
2012 (billions of US dollars)
China 866 France -34
Germany 394 Indonesia -52
Japan 292 Saudi Arabia -60
South Korea 205 Brazil -81
Italy 113 United Kingdom -99
India -8 Canada -130
Mexico -20 Russia -140
Turkey -24 Australia -146
South Africa -28 United States -610
Argentina -29
Trade balances in manufactured products: G-20 Countries, Year 2012 (billions of US dollars)
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from WTO
15
2013 forecast 130 billions US $
Fondazione Edison
16
Position of G-6 Countries, China and South Korea
in the ranking of competitiveness of the Trade Performance Index UNCTAD-WTO
Year 2012(ranking in each sector worldwide; in bold the placements among the top 10 most competitive countries)
Countries GERMANY ITALY CHINA REP. OF JAPAN FRANCE UNITED UNITED
Sectors KOREA KINGDOM STATES
Fresh food 27 37 48 85 88 19 43 7
Processed food 1 6 24 71 81 2 43 37
Wood and paper 1 26 38 49 50 29 36 25
Textiles 2 1 3 8 34 18 21 34
Leather products 14 1 2 44 86 11 18 38
Clothing 16 1 2 47 77 12 20 42
Chemicals 1 21 27 8 6 5 7 14
Basic manufactures 1 2 4 3 8 28 31 44
Non-electronic machinery 1 2 5 11 12 10 15 23
Electronic components 1 3 43 21 8 22 27 36
IT & Consumer electronics 11 22 7 6 40 17 18 21
Transport equipment 1 17 7 3 8 13 31 34
Miscellaneous manufacturing 1 2 9 40 10 22 27 23
Minerals 32 63 75 83 89 33 25 29
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from International Trade Centre UNCTAD/WTO
Fondazione Edison
17
ITALY'S COMPETITIVENESS ACCORDING TO THE TRADE PERFORMANCE INDEX UNCTAD/WTO
Year 2012
Sectors
Position of Italy
in the Ranking of
Trade
Performance
Index
Value of
Italy's
Export
Italy's Net Trade
CLOTHING 1 16.5 2.2
LEATHER PRODUCTS 1 20.7 11.2
TEXTILES 1 12.2 4.5
NON-ELECTRONIC MACHINERY 2 84.8 53.0
BASIC MANUFACTURES 2 53.9 12.0
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURING 2 39.0 11.5
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS 3 23.2 2.7
PROCESSED FOOD 6 28.6 5.2
TOTAL 8 BEST SECTORS 278.9 102.3
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from International Trade Centre, UNCTAD/WTO
(billion dollars)
Fondazione Edison
ITALY IS THE THIRD NET EXPORTER OF NON-ELECTRONIC MACHINERY
18 Fondazione Edison
19
Italy's position in the trade balance world rankings Number of
products
Trade balance
corresponding
values
First 235 63
Second 390 74
Third 321 45
TOTAL 946 183
NUMBER OF PRODUCTS IN WHICH ITALY HOLDS THE TOP POSITIONS IN THE WORLD TRADE
Fortis-Corradini Index, Fondazione Edison ©
(case study on a total sample of 5,117 products traded at world level)
Year 2011; value in billions of dollars
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from Istat, Eurostat and UN Comtrade data
Fondazione Edison
THE «TRADITIONAL» MADE IN ITALY: FOOD, FASHION, FURNITURE (1)
ITALY IS THE FIRST WORLD NET EXPORTER FOR MANY TRADITIONAL PRODUCTS, YEAR 2011
(US dollars)
Commodity Description Net trade value
Footwear, outer soles and uppers of leather, nes 2,655,474,250
Glazed ceramic flags, tiles wider than 7 cm 2,475,198,671
Handbags with outer surface of leather 2,183,184,334
Sunglasses 1,919,480,644
Uncooked pasta, not stuffed or prepared, without eggs 1,858,301,512
Bovine and equine leather, full or split grain, nes 1,827,081,797
Tomatoes, whole/pieces, prepared/preserved, no vinegar 1,010,616,109
Bovine and equine leather, nes 977,980,842
Apples, fresh 961,709,487
Footwear, soles, uppers of leather, over ankle, nes 651,068,582
Swine meat, salted/dried/smoked not ham/shoulder/belly 645,862,121
Woven fabric, >85% combed wool or fine hair, <300 g/m2 629,608,368
Womens, girls ensembles, material nes, not knit 606,254,483
Paper handkerchiefs, cleansing, facial tissues, towels 454,030,893
Parts of footwear nes, gaiters and leggings etc 443,426,563
Stuffed pasta 393,456,538
Womens, girls dresses, of material nes, not knit 377,024,926
Belts and bandoliers of leather or composition leather 356,695,303
Womens, girls overcoats, of impregnated, etc fabric 324,084,990
Clasps/buckles, etc for clothing, footwear, bags etc 314,574,500
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from United Nations Comtrade
20 Fondazione Edison
THE «TRADITIONAL» MADE IN ITALY: FOOD, FASHION, FURNITURE (2)
21
ITALY IS THE SECOND NET EXPORTER OF MANY TRADITIONAL PRODUCTS, YEAR 2011
(US dollars)
Commodity Description Net trade (US dollars)
Grape wines nes, fortified wine or must, pack < 2l 4,703,109,019
Furniture parts nes 1,968,156,484
Furniture, wooden, nes 1,855,849,955
Unglazed ceramic flags, tiles > 7 cm wide 1,570,625,367
Coffee, roasted, not decaffeinated 974,828,603
Chocolate/cocoa food preparations nes 924,478,378
Kitchen furniture, wooden, nes 776,195,803
Grapes, fresh 750,734,534
Communion wafers, rice paper, bakers wares nes 748,505,262
Chandeliers, other electric ceiling or wall lights 641,472,546
Tomatoes nes, prepared or preserved, not in vinegar 635,379,601
Grape wines, sparkling 558,665,107
Boots, sole rubber or plastic upper leather, nes 537,057,279
Worked marble, travertine and alabaster 482,507,243
Womens, girls garments nes, material nes, not knit 436,879,890
Panty hose etc, synthetic fibre yarn <67 dtex/sy, knit 435,648,788
Articles for pocket or handbag, leather outer surface 427,273,087
Mineral and aerated waters not sweetened or flavoured 425,636,282
Grape wines, alcoholic grape must nes 416,017,616
Kiwifruit, fresh 410,200,766
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from United Nations Comtrade
Fondazione Edison
THE «EMERGING» MADE IN ITALY: MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT (1)
ITALY IS ALSO THE FIRST WORLD NET EXPORTER OF MANY METAL, MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
AND TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT PRODUCTS, YEAR 2011
(US dollars)
Commodity Description Net trade
Packing or wrapping machinery nes 2,509,127,499
Motorboats, other than outboard motorboats 1,615,575,245
Electric conductors, 80-1,000 volts, no connectors 1,477,289,649
Parts of wash, filling, closing, aerating machinery 1,466,975,229
Pipes and tubing, stainless steel, welded 1,271,733,668
Helicopters of an unladen weight > 2,000 kg 1,182,428,687
Hollow profiles/tubes,iron/steel,non-circular, welded 1,117,304,515
Pipes etc nes, iron/steel welded nes,diameter <406.4mm 1,058,324,641
Pumps nes 1,002,920,880
Parts of metal rolling mills and rolls 917,738,807
Refrigerator/freezer chests/cabinets/showcases 892,217,776
Stainless steel bar nfw than cold formed/cold finished 834,706,728
Bakery and pasta making machinery 812,791,907
Heat exchange units, non-domestic, non-electric 799,783,605
Commercial equipment, hot drinks/cooking/heating food 757,457,960
Articles, iron or steel nes, forged/stamped, nfw 728,494,263
Insulated winding wire of copper 648,450,165
Machine tools for wood, cork or hard plastic, etc nes 463,414,700
Machinery for making up pulp, paper, paperboard nes 432,156,385
Machine tools nes for stone, ceramics and cold glass 413,655,806
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from United Nations Comtrade
22 Fondazione Edison
THE «EMERGING» MADE IN ITALY: MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT (2)
23
ITALY IS ALSO THE SECOND NET EXPORTER OF MANY METAL PRODUCTS, MECHANICAL
ENGINEERING AND TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT PRODUCTS, YEAR 2011
(US dollars)
Commodity Description Net Trade (US dollars)
Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances, nes 4,511,185,267
Articles of iron or steel, nes 1,833,278,267
Parts of gas turbine engines except turbo-jet/prop 1,620,101,502
Wheeled tractors nes 1,492,561,492
Machinery to fill, close, aerate,etc bottle, container 1,473,442,493
Articles of aluminium 1,371,940,965
Cruise ships, excursion boats, ferry boats 1,278,503,821
Bolts/screws nes, with/without nut/washer, iron/steel 903,216,939
Parts of vacuum pumps, compressors,fans,blowers,hoods 872,747,378
Special purpose motor vehicles nes 708,033,812
Electric cooking, grilling & roasting equipment nes 693,133,336
Pipes, line, iron or steel, for oil or gas pipelines 597,641,828
Machinery for treatment by temperature change nes 585,726,142
Machines to agglomerate, shape, mould minerals or fuel 583,417,657
Rubber or plastic working machines, nes 566,692,004
Cooking appliances for gas fuel, etc, iron or steel 552,399,788
Bars, rods and other profiles, aluminium alloyed 538,867,915
Parts of turbo-jet or turbo-propeller engines 512,070,582
Parts of taps, cocks, valves or similar appliances 509,859,895
Lifts and skip hoists 480,025,872
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from United Nations Comtrade
Fondazione Edison
Italy is the second country after China for the highest number of non-food manufactured products
with a net trade value higher than of Germany’s
24
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from United Nations Comtrade, Eurostat, Istat
Fondazione Edison
IL DEBITO PUBBLICO
25 Fondazione Edison
26 Fondazione Edison
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EUROZONE PUBLIC DEBT AND ITALY'S "MARKET SHARE" Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from European Commission
Italy's public debt/Eurozone's public debt measured in euro (in %, left scale) Italy's public debt to GDP ratio/Eurozone's public debt to GDP ratio (in %, right scale)
27 Fondazione Edison
Note: data for Greece are not considered because not comparable with previous data.
DURING THE CRISIS ITALY’S GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT IS THAT GROWN LESS IN MONETARY TERM
AMONG UE COUNTRIES AND UNITED STATES AFTER SWEDEN’S
28
Government consolidated gross debt(Millions of national currency)
2008Q3 2013Q3pct chg 2013/Q3
compared to 2008/Q3
Ireland 71.376 204.696 186,8%
Spain 400.870 954.863 138,2%
United Kingdom 689.069 1.431.399 107,7%
Finland 55.616 105.496 89,7%
Portugal 119.377 210.965 76,7%
United States 10.024.725 16.738.184 67,0%
Netherlands 276.610 442.163 59,9%
France 1.289.913 1.900.848 47,4%
Austria 174.380 239.838 37,5%
Germany 1.633.873 2.126.831 30,2%
ITALY 1.653.905 2.068.722 25,1%
Sweden 1.226.559 1.461.328 19,1%
Source: Eurostat
Fondazione Edison
PUBLIC DEBT HELD BY NON-RESIDENTS IS GROWING FAST IN MANY COUNTRIES BUT NOT IN ITALY
29 Fondazione Edison
ITALY IS AMONG THE FEW EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WITH GOVERNMENT BALANCE UNDER 3 PCT OF GDP
Government balance, Year 2012 (pct of GDP)
Germany 0.1 Poland -3.9
Estonia -0.2 Belgium -4.0
Sweden -0.2 Denmark -4.1
Luxembourg -0.6 Netherlands -4.1
Bulgaria -0.8 Czech Republic -4.4
Latvia -1.3 Slovakia -4.5
Finland -1.8 France -4.8
Hungary -2.0 Croatia -5.0
Austria -2.5 United Kingdom -6.1
Italy -3.0 Cyprus -6.4
Romania -3.0 Portugal -6.4
Lithuania -3.2 Ireland -8.2
Malta -3.3 Greece -9.0
Slovenia -3.8 Spain -10.6
Source: Eurostat
30 Fondazione Edison
ITALY AND GERMANY HAVE THE BEST PRIMARY GOVERNMENT BALANCE
Government primary balance, Year 2012 (pct of GDP)
Germany 2.5 Lithuania -1.4
Italy 2.5 Slovenia -1.7
Hungary 2.2 Croatia -1.9
Sweden 0.5 Portugal -2.1
Bulgaria 0.1 Netherlands -2.2
Austria 0.1 France -2.3
Latvia 0.0 Denmark -2.5
Estonia -0.1 Slovakia -2.7
Luxembourg -0.1 Czech Republic -2.9
Malta -0.2 United Kingdom -3.1
Belgium -0.6 Cyprus -3.3
Finland -0.7 Greece -4.0
Poland -1.1 Ireland -4.5
Romania -1.2 Spain -7.6
Source: Eurostat
31 Fondazione Edison
32 Fondazione Edison
33 Fondazione Edison
34
GOVERNMENT PRIMARY BALANCE OF 5 MAJOR EU COUNTRIES(Billions of national currency)
GERMANIA SPAGNA FRANCIA ITALIA UKSURPLUS DEFICIT SURPLUS DEFICIT SURPLUS DEFICIT SURPLUS DEFICIT SURPLUS DEFICIT
1996 2,6 -1,3 -5,6 45,3 -5,4
1997 12,2 3,4 1,8 68,7 11,4
1998 20,4 6,4 9,0 57,0 29,4
1999 31,1 12,7 16,2 52,3 34,8
2000 88,8 14,3 19,5 65,0 61,4
2001 0,3 17,0 20,4 39,0 28,3
2002 -18,8 17,3 -5,1 32,2 -1,6
2003 -24,4 16,0 -20,2 20,1 -17,5
2004 -19,4 16,6 -14,1 16,9 -18,9
2005 -10,9 27,9 -4,5 2,6 -17,4
2006 27,9 39,4 4,0 17,9 -10,8
2007 74,1 37,7 -0,9 52,2 -9,4
2008 66,4 -31,7 -8,0 38,6 -39,9
2009 -10,0 -97,9 -96,9 -12,6 -133,7
2010 -40,9 -80,2 -90,4 1,9 -105,6
2011 44,2 -73,7 -53,2 17,7 -68,0
2012 66,1 -78,2 -46,2 39,7 -48,2
2013 61,6 -34,2 -36,3 36,1 -54,8
Fondazione Edison
IN THE LAST 2 DECADES, ITALY CUMULATED THE HIGHER GOVERNMENT PRIMARY SURPLUS OF THE WORLD
IN THE MODERN HISTORY
35 Fondazione Edison
36 Fondazione Edison
37 Fondazione Edison
38 Fondazione Edison
39 Fondazione Edison
40 Fondazione Edison
41 Fondazione Edison
42 Fondazione Edison
43 Fondazione Edison
MEASURING THE PUBLIC DEBT: THE GDP IS NOT THE UNIQUE POSSIBLE DENOMINATOR. THE PRIVATE WEALTH IS ANOTHER
ONE AND BY FAR MORE IMPORTANT
216 192 192
178
147 139 128 122 118
85 85 63
39
0
50
100
150
200
250
Households net financial assets: Year 2012 (pct of GDP)
Source: Eurostat
44 Fondazione Edison
ITALY HAS THE SECOND PUBLIC DEBT OF THE EU IN PCT OF GDP, BUT ONLY THE FOURTEENTH
IN PCT OF HOUSEHOLDS NET FINANCIAL ASSETS
45 Fondazione Edison
46
SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
Risk classification in the 2013 assessment round(Western EU countries, escluding Greece, Ireland and Portugal)
Low risk Medium risk High risk
Short-term challenges:
S0 Indicator (early detection
of fiscal stress)
Malta (0.41) Belgium (0.3)
United Kingdom (0.29) ITALY
(0.28) Denmark (0.24)
Sweden (0.24) France (0.19)
Netherlands (0.15) Finland
(0.13) Luxembourg (0.12)
Austria (0.07) GERMANY
(0.02)
Spain (0.45)
Medium to long-term
challenges:
S1 Indicator (fiscal
adjustment required until
2020 to reach a 60% public
debt/GDP ratio by 2030, in
per cent of GDP)
GERMANY (-0.3)
Luxembourg (-1.5) Denmark (-
2.5) Sweden (-2.7)
Austria (2.4) France (2.3)
Finland (2.1) ITALY (1.1)
Spain (6.1) United Kingdom
(6.1) Belgium (5.2)
Netherlands (3.1) Malta (3.1)
Medium to long-term
challenges:
S2 Indicator ( ageing-
induced fiscal risks)
France (1.9) Denmark (1.7)
GERMANY (1.4) ITALY (-
2.1)
Spain (5.6) Austria (4)
Sweden (2.4)
Luxembourg (8.6) Belgium
(6.9) Malta (6.8) Netherlands
(6.5) Finland (6.2) United
Kingdom (6.2)
Source: European Commission, Public Finances in European Monetary Union 2013, p. 42
Fondazione Edison
LE 10 COSE CHE PADOAN DEVE SPIEGARE A BRUXELLES
• 1) Dal 1992 al 2013 l’Italia è stata in avanzo primario per 21 anni su 22: un record assoluto nell’Occidente avanzato.
• 2) Dal 1992 al 2013, nei 21 anni in cui l’Italia è stata in avanzo primario, quest’ultimo è stato per ben 14 anni superiore al 2% del PIL: solo Belgio e Danimarca hanno fatto meglio dell’Italia sul totale dei 28 Paesi UE, USA e Giappone.
• 3) Dal 3° trimestre 2008 al 3° trimestre 2013, durante l’attuale crisi, il debito pubblico italiano è quello aumentato percentualmente di meno in valore monetario in tutto l’Occidente avanzato dopo i debiti pubblici di Norvegia e Svezia.
47 Fondazione Edison
LE 10 COSE CHE PADOAN DEVE SPIEGARE A BRUXELLES
• 4) Nel quadriennio 2012-2015 il deficit/PIL dell’Italia è stato e sarà sempre sotto il 3%.
• 5) Nel quadriennio 2012-2015 l’Italia è stata e sarà il Paese dell’UE «non aiutato» con il più alto avanzo statale primario/PIL.
• 6) Dal 1996 al 2013 l’Italia ha generato il più grande avanzo statale primario cumulato in valore dell’Occidente avanzato (poco meno di 600 miliardi di euro) e il secondo dell’Eurozona in punti percentuali di PIL (47%) dopo la Finlandia. La Germania, per un confronto, ha avuto un avanzo statale cumulato di 16 punti percentuali di PIL, mentre USA, Giappone, UK, Francia e Spagna presentano rilevanti disavanzi primari cumulati.
48 Fondazione Edison
LE 10 COSE CHE PADOAN DEVE SPIEGARE A BRUXELLES
• 7) Il debito pubblico estero italiano, in base a dati del 2012, è pari solo al 45% del PIL, un valore in linea con quelli di Paesi «virtuosi» come la Finlandia (44%) o la Germania (43%), ed inferiore a quello della Francia (50%).
• 8) Il debito pubblico interno italiano è indubbiamente alto rispetto al PIL ma non preoccupante se confrontato con l’ingente ricchezza finanziaria netta delle famiglie che sorregge il sistema bancario-finanziario nazionale e lo Stato stesso. In ciò l’Italia si differenzia nettamente dalla Spagna.
• 9) La stessa Commissione Europea riconosce che nel medio-lungo termine, grazie alle riforme pensionistiche già adottate, l’Italia presenta il più basso profilo di rischio finanziario del debito pubblico tra tutti i Paesi UE. 49 Fondazione Edison
LE 10 COSE CHE PADOAN DEVE SPIEGARE A BRUXELLES
• 10) Ciò che vanifica gli sforzi fiscali dell’Italia sono gli spropositati interessi che il nostro Paese paga da sempre, rispetto alla sua comprovata capacità di esprimere continuativi surplus primari nel tempo. Il rating dell’Italia è semplicemente assurdo. Se dal 1997 tutti i Paesi avessero ipoteticamente sospeso il pagamento degli interessi sul debito pubblico, nel 2013 il debito pubblico italiano sarebbe sceso al 49% del PIL rispetto al 120% del 1996. Gli Stati Uniti sarebbero invece oggi al 66%, la Gran Bretagna al 61%, la Spagna al 59%, la Francia al 55%, il Giappone al 200%. Nel caso di Paesi oggettivamente virtuosi, come il nostro, l’Unione Europea dovrebbe introdurre misure compensative, ad esempio degli appositi Eurobond per sterilizzare gli interessi eccessivi. Tali misure dovrebbero scattare solo nei riguardi di Paesi (come l’Italia) che, senza aiuti, si dimostrano capaci di mantenere stabilmente il surplus statale primario sopra il 2% del PIL.
50 Fondazione Edison