Olefin and Polyolefin Markets in India - · PDF fileOlefin and Polyolefin Markets in India ....

26
Amit Chaturvedi Senior Vice President & Head of Cracker Reliance Industries Ltd Olefin and Polyolefin Markets in India

Transcript of Olefin and Polyolefin Markets in India - · PDF fileOlefin and Polyolefin Markets in India ....

Page 1: Olefin and Polyolefin Markets in India - · PDF fileOlefin and Polyolefin Markets in India . ... GAIL PATA, Uttar Pradesh 450 HMEL Bhatinda 440 BPCL Kochi 500 Reliance Gujarat 1400

Amit Chaturvedi

Senior Vice President & Head of Cracker

Reliance Industries Ltd

Olefin and Polyolefin Markets in India

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Forward Looking Statements

This presentation contains forward-looking statements which may be identified by their use

of words like “plans,” “expects,” “will,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “intends,” “projects,”

“estimates” or other words of similar meaning. All statements that address expectations or

projections about the future, including, but not limited to, statements about the strategy for

growth, product development, market position, expenditures, and financial results, are

forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future

events. The companies referred to in this presentation cannot guarantee that these

assumptions and expectations are accurate or will be realised. The actual results,

performance or achievements, could thus differ materially from those projected in any such

forward-looking statements. These companies assume no responsibility to publicly amend,

modify or revise any forward looking statements, on the basis of any subsequent

developments, information or events, or otherwise.

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Presentation Plan

Role of Petrochemicals

India’s Economic Transformation

Petrochemical Industry Outlook

Conclusion

Reliance

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Reliance Overview

• India’s Largest Private Sector Enterprise

– World # 107 by Revenue as per Fortune Global 500 (July 2013)

• Market Capitalization of 41 Bn $ (as on 28 Feb’14)

• Pre-eminent Position in India’s Economy

– Exports to over 100 countries representing 64% of total turnover

– 14% of Exports (FY 12) and 4% of the total Market Capitalization in India

– 8.6% Weightage in the BSE Sensex

Large contribution in the country’s economy

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World scale Capacities

• Largest refining capacity at any single location

• Largest producer of Polyester Fibre and Yarn

• 5th largest producer of Paraxylene (PX) currently, will be 2nd Largest

by 2016

• 5th largest producer of Polypropylene (PP)

• 8th largest producer of Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG) currently, will be

5th Largest by 2016

• 9th largest producer of Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) currently, will

be 5th Largest by 2016

The growth continues….

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• Turnover of 68.4 billion $

• EBIDTA of 7.1 billion $

• Net Profit of 3.9 billion $

• Total Exports of 44.1 billion $

FY 12-13 Financial Highlights

EBIDTA growing at CAGR of 12.3% over last 10 years

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Presentation Plan

Role of Petrochemicals

India’s Economic Transformation

Petrochemical Industry Outlook

Conclusion

Reliance

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Petrochemicals– an “enabling” industry

Petrochemicals – key role in modern day living

Petrochemicals in Food/

Agriculture

Petrochemicals in

Clothing

Petrochemicals in

Building/Construction

PVC Flooring

PVC Doors

PVC Windows

PVC Roofs

Wall Coverings

PVC Cot

Petrochemicals in

Automobiles Petrochemicals in

Healthcare

Petrochemicals in

Consumer Durables

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Presentation Plan

Role of Petrochemicals

India’s Economic Transformation

Petrochemical Industry Outlook

Conclusion

Reliance

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Today’s India – Transforming India

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2,241

5,750

2,042

4,506

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ Billion $

GDP,on PPP basis (Billion $)

Per Capita GDP, on PPP basis ($)

Source: IMF

India’s GDP growing from 4.2% of world in 2004 to 5.9 % in 2015

India – Economy Growth

Forecast

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• Increasing urban share in population

– 2011 : 31%

– 2021 : 35%

– 2030 : 40%

• Number of cities with population >1 million to rise from 53 in 2011 to 75+

in 2021

Investment Required in Urban Infrastructure (excl Housing) 2012-30 ($ billion)

360.2 93.6

85.2

66.9

50.6

39.8

21.2

20.4

10.1

68.4

0 100 200 300 400

Urban Roads

Urban Transport

Renewal & Redevelopment

Water Supply

Sewerage

Storm Water Drains

Capacity Building

Traffic Infrastructure

Waste Management

Miscellaneous

Total Investments >$ 860 bn

Accelerated Urbanization

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Source: NCAER, Reliance Research

Purchasing power continues to rise

50% of India’s population is < 25 years of age and 65% is < 35 years old

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• India to become the most populous country by 2025

• Population growth higher demand for food and water

• Limited increase of arable land and usable water possible

– Higher productivity of water and land vital

– Plastics applications can raise production of agri produce

– India adopting globally followed practices for productivity enhancement

• Future investments in agriculture expected to rise significantly

Translates to additional consumption of petrochemicals

Food security and water management

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Average Daily Sales of Consumer Products in India

India’s growth is expected to accelerate in the coming years

- Providing further fillip to petrochemicals consumption

2012

Cars 6000

TVs 36400

ACs 10100

Refrigerators 22100

Washing Machines 10600

2-wheelers 36800

2016

10900

55100

15900

31500

14700

76100

A day in the life of India: 2012 vs 2016

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• Economic Advantage 3rd largest economy globally (PPP) with

potential for high growth rate

• Demographic Advantage

– Emergence of Middle class - rising household income

– Growing consumer market

– Large workforce - Highly skilled & Educated

• Urbanization 31% - 2010 to 35% -2020 (Population living in city)

• Growth of real estate sector and construction activity

• Modernization of Agriculture Plasticulture, Micro Irrigation, etc.

• India as auto manufacturing hub

• Booming retail sector

• Low levels of per capita consumption of polyolefins (6.1 Kg against

global average of 20 kg)

Indicative of India’s potential for sustained high growth in coming years

India’s Demand Drivers - Summary

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Presentation Plan

Role of Petrochemicals

India’s Economic Transformation

Petrochemical Industry Outlook

Conclusion

Reliance

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Indian PE Demand Growth

Capacity additions in line with the domestic demand growth

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Op. Rate Qty, KT

Production Domestic Demand Capacity Operating Rate

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Indian PP Demand Growth

India continues to be long in PP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Op. Rate Qty, KT

Production Domestic Demand Capacity Operating Rate

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12th Plan projections for petrochemicals

Overall consumption likely to grow by ~20 MMT

All Fig in KTs

Actual Estimated CARG

Group 2011-12 2016-17 11/12-16/17Building Blocks 8105 12746 9.5%

Comm Plastics 8555 14001 10.4%

Syn Rubbers 462 721 9.3%

Surfactants 648 868 6.0%

Solvents and Int 1726 2563 8.2%

Fibre Intermediates 9034 16911 13.4%

Syn Fibres 3405 5364 9.5%

Total 31934 53173 10.7%

Consumption

Actual Estimated CARG

2011-12 2016-17 11/12-16/178460 12533 8.2%

8975 12671 7.1%

124 764 43.9%

733 784 1.3%

2129 3304 9.2%

8977 17664 14.5%

4527 7390 10.3%

33925 55110 10.2%

Capacity

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Company Locations

Ethylene

Production

(KTA

Propylene

Production

(KTA)

ONGC Petro

Additions Dahej, Gujarat 1100 340

MRPL Mangalore, Karnataka 440

BCPL Lapetkata, Assam 220 60

GAIL PATA, Uttar Pradesh 450

HMEL Bhatinda 440

BPCL Kochi 500

Reliance Gujarat 1400 150

Total 3170 1930

Huge investments in petrochemicals sector planned for next few years

Upcoming Petrochemical Projects

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• Notwithstanding growing demand, ensuring competitiveness is a

“MUST”

• Historically Middle East was growth center – thanks to low feedstock

and Energy costs

– Less Ethane for new projects

• North America today is new epicenter of growth

– Low energy and feedstock costs

– However no domestic demand for polymers

• High energy costs on account of soaring LNG prices

• New coal-based manufacturing capacities can redefine the industry

– Environmental issues will have to be addressed suitably

Industry will have to keep improving itself continuously

But Some Challenges ……..

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Ethylene Cash Cost Curve

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1 7

13

19

25

29

31

38

43

48

55

60

66

72

76

80

85

90

96

100

104

107

112

115

119

123

126

129

133

135

139

142

145

148

151

Cas

h C

ost

($/M

T)

Cumulative Capacity (MMTPA)

Asian/European

Gas/Mixed Feed

Crackers

Small European

and JKT Crackers

Middle East Gas

Crackers and US

Gas crackers

Asian and European

Naphtha Crackers

Feedstock and Energy costs driving competitiveness

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Presentation Plan

Role of Petrochemicals

India’s Economic Transformation

Petrochemical Industry Outlook

Conclusion

Reliance

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Conclusion

• Economic transformation of India continues accompanied by

income growth

• Coupled with population growth, demand for resources expected

to increase manifold

• Increase in consumption translates to higher demand for

petrochemicals

• Industry in India is responding to rising demand with additional

investments creating growth opportunities

Unprecedented opportunities in petrochemicals

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Thank You